Stockholm Environment Institute

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is a recognized threat to plant diversity in temperate and northern parts of Europe and North America. This paper assesses evidence from field experiments for N deposition effects and thresholds for terrestrial plant diversity protection across a latitudinal range of main categories of ecosystems, from arctic and boreal systems to tropical forests. Current thinking on the mechanisms of N deposition effects on plant diversity, the global distribution of G200 ecoregions, and current and future (2030) estimates of atmospheric N-deposition rates are then used to identify the risks to plant diversity in all major ecosystem types now and in the future. This synthesis paper clearly shows that N accumulation is the main driver of changes to species composition across the whole range of different ecosystem types by driving the competitive interactions that lead to composition change and/or making conditions unfavorable for some species. Other effects such as direct toxicity of nitrogen gases and aerosols, long-term negative effects of increased ammonium and ammonia availability, soil-mediated effects of acidification, and secondary stress and disturbance are more ecosystem- and site-specific and often play a supporting role. N deposition effects in mediterranean ecosystems have now been identified, leading to a first estimate of an effect threshold. Importantly, ecosystems thought of as not N limited, such as tropical and subtropical systems, may be more vulnerable in the regeneration phase, in situations where heterogeneity in N availability is reduced by atmospheric N deposition, on sandy soils, or in montane areas. Critical loads are effect thresholds for N deposition, and the critical load concept has helped European governments make progress toward reducing N loads on sensitive ecosystems. More needs to be done in Europe and North America, especially for the more sensitive ecosystem types, including several ecosystems of high conservation importance. The results of this assessment show that the vulnerable regions outside Europe and North America which have not received enough attention are ecoregions in eastern and southern Asia (China, India), an important part of the mediterranean ecoregion (California, southern Europe), and in the coming decades several subtropical and tropical parts of Latin America and Africa. Reductions in plant diversity by increased atmospheric N deposition may be more widespread than first thought, and more targeted studies are required in low background areas, especially in the G200 ecoregions.

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are increasingly aware of the benefits of closing loops and improving resource efficiency, such as saving material costs, creating competitive advantages, and accessing new markets. At the same time, however, various barriers pose challenges to small businesses in their transition to a circular economy, namely a lack of financial resources and lack of technical skills. The aim of this paper is to increase knowledge and understanding about the barriers and enablers experienced by SMEs when implementing circular economy business models. Looking first at the barriers that prevent SMEs from realising the benefits of the circular economy, an investigation is carried out in the form of a literature review and an analysis of a sample of SME case studies that are featured on the GreenEcoNet EU-funded web platform. Several enabling factors that help SMEs adopt circular economy practices are then identified. The paper concludes that although various policy instruments are available to help SMEs incorporate circular economy principles into their business models, several barriers remain. The authors recommend that European and national policies strengthen their focus on greening consumer preferences, market value chains and company cultures, and support the recognition of SMEs’ green business models. This can be achieved through the creation of dedicated marketplaces and communities of practice, for example.

Miller, F., H. Osbahr, E. Boyd, F. Thomalla, S. Bharwani, G. Ziervogel, B. Walker, J. Birkmann, S. Van der Leeuw, J. Rockström, J. Hinkel, T. Downing, C. Folke, and D. Nelson 2010. Resilience and vulnerability: complementary or conflicting concepts?. Ecology and Society 15(3): 11. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-03378-150311

Abstract. The Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) has been performing model calculations in support of the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) for more than 30 years. The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model is still one of the key tools within European air pollution policy assessments. Traditionally, the model has covered all of Europe with a resolution of about 50 km × 50 km, and extending vertically from ground level to the tropopause (100 hPa). The model has changed extensively over the last ten years, however, with flexible processing of chemical schemes, meteorological inputs, and with nesting capability: the code is now applied on scales ranging from local (ca. 5 km grid size) to global (with 1 degree resolution). The model is used to simulate photo-oxidants and both inorganic and organic aerosols. In 2008 the EMEP model was released for the first time as public domain code, along with all required input data for model runs for one year. The second release of the EMEP MSC-W model became available in mid 2011, and a new release is targeted for summer 2012. This publication is intended to document this third release of the EMEP MSC-W model. The model formulations are given, along with details of input data-sets which are used, and a brief background on some of the choices made in the formulation is presented. The model code itself is available at www.emep.int, along with the data required to run for a full year over Europe.

Tropospheric ozone (O(3)) is a global air pollutant that causes billions of dollars in lost plant productivity annually. It is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, and as a secondary air pollutant, it is present at high concentrations in rural areas far from industrial sources. It also reduces plant productivity by entering leaves through the stomata, generating other reactive oxygen species and causing oxidative stress, which in turn decreases photosynthesis, plant growth, and biomass accumulation. The deposition of O(3) into vegetation through stomata is an important sink for tropospheric O(3), but this sink is modified by other aspects of environmental change, including rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, rising temperature, altered precipitation, and nitrogen availability. We review the atmospheric chemistry governing tropospheric O(3) mass balance, the effects of O(3) on stomatal conductance and net primary productivity, and implications for agriculture, carbon sequestration, and climate change.

While past strategies for agricultural water management have focused on irrigation (use of blue water), this paper demonstrates the dominance of green water in food production. A global, yet spatially disaggregated, green‐blue analysis of water availability and requirement, using the LPJmL dynamic vegetation and water balance model, indicates that many countries currently assessed as severely water short are able to produce enough food for their populations if green water is considered and is managed well. The need to integrate green and blue water management is highlighted in a future scenario of water availability under climate change and population growth (HadCM2 A2). For 2050, the scenario indicates that 59% of the world population will face blue water shortage, and 36% will face green and blue water shortage. Even under climate change, good options to build water resilience exist without further expansion of cropland, particularly through management of local green water resources that reduces risks for dry spells and agricultural droughts.

Abstract Partitioning soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efflux ( R S ) into autotrophic ( R A ; including plant roots and closely associated organisms) and heterotrophic ( R H ) components has received considerable attention, as differential responses of these components to environmental change have profound implications for the soil and ecosystem C balance. The increasing number of partitioning studies allows a more detailed analysis of experimental constraints than was previously possible. We present results of an exhaustive literature search of partitioning studies and analyse global trends in flux partitioning between biomes and ecosystem types by means of a metaanalysis. Across all data, an overall decline in the R H / R S ratio for increasing annual R S fluxes emerged. For forest ecosystems, boreal coniferous sites showed significantly higher ( P <0.05) R H / R S ratios than temperate sites, while both temperate or tropical deciduous forests did not differ in ratios from any of the other forest types. While chronosequence studies report consistent declines in the R H / R S ratio with age, no difference could be detected for different age groups in the global data set. Different methodologies showed generally good agreement if the range of R S under which they had been measured was considered, with the exception of studies estimating R H by means of root mass regressions against R S , which resulted in consistently lower R H / R S estimates out of all methods included. Additionally, the time step over which fluxes were partitioned did not affect R H / R S ratios consistently. To put results into context, we review the most common techniques and point out the likely sources of errors associated with them. In order to improve soil CO 2 efflux partitioning in future experiments, we include methodological recommendations, and also highlight the potential interactions between soil components that may be overlooked as a consequence of the partitioning process itself.

"Participatory Action Research approaches and methods: connecting people, participation and place." Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 51(6), pp. 876–877

As part of the work of the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations Task Force on Emission Inventories, a new set of guidelines has been developed for assessing the emissions of sulphur, nitrogen oxides, NH 3 , CH 4 , and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) from biogenic and other natural sources in Europe. This paper gives the background to these guidelines, describes the sources, and gives our recommended methodologies for estimating emissions. We have assembled land use and other statistics from European or national compilations and present emission estimates for the various natural/biogenic source categories based on these. Total emissions from nature derived here amount to ∼1.1 Tg S yr −1 , 6–8 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , 70 Gg NH 3 (as N) yr −1 , and 13 Tg NMVOC yr −1 . Estimates of biogenic NO x emissions cover a wide range, from 140 to 1500 Gg NO x (as N) yr −1 . In terms of relative contribution to total European emissions for different pollutants, then NMVOC from forests and vegetation are clearly the most important emissions source. Biogenic NO x emissions (although heavily influenced by nitrogen inputs from anthropogenic activities) are very important if the higher estimates are reliable. CH 4 from wetlands and sulphur from volcanoes are also significant emissions in the European budgets. On a global scale, European biogenic emissions are not significant, a consequence of the climate and size (7% of global land area) of Europe and of the destruction of natural ecosystems since prehistoric times. However, for assessing local budgets and for photochemical oxidant modeling, natural/biogenic emissions can play an important role. The most important contributor in this regard is undoubtedly forest VOC emissions, although this paper also indicates that NMVOC emissions from nonforested areas also need to be further evaluated. This paper was originally conceived as a contribution to the collection of papers arising as a result of the Workshop on Biogenic Hydrocarbons in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer, August 24–27, 1997. (Several papers arising from this workshop have been published in Journal of Geophysical Research, 103 (D19) 1998.)

Abstract Increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition is known to reduce plant diversity in natural and semi‐natural ecosystems, yet our understanding of these impacts comes almost entirely from studies in northern Europe and North America. Currently, we lack an understanding of the threat of N deposition to biodiversity at the global scale. In particular, rates of N deposition within the newly defined 34 world biodiversity hotspots, to which 50% of the world's floristic diversity is restricted, has not been quantified previously. Using output from global chemistry transport models, here we provide the first estimates of recent (mid‐1990s) and future (2050) rates and distributions of N deposition within biodiversity hotspots. Our analysis shows that the average deposition rate across these areas was 50% greater than the global terrestrial average in the mid‐1990s and could more than double by 2050, with 33 of 34 hotspots receiving greater N deposition in 2050 compared with 1990. By this time, 17 hotspots could have between 10% and 100% of their area receiving greater than 15 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , a rate exceeding critical loads set for many sensitive European ecosystems. Average deposition in four hotspots is predicted to be greater than 20 kg N ha −1 yr −1 . This elevated N deposition within areas of high plant diversity and endemism may exacerbate significantly the global threat of N deposition to world floristic diversity. Overall, we highlight the need for a greater global approach to assessing the impacts of N deposition.

This Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) on the current state of knowledge of ozone metrics of relevance to vegetation (TOAR-Vegetation) reports on present-day global distribution of ozone at over 3300 vegetated sites and the long-term trends at nearly 1200 sites. TOAR-Vegetation focusses on three metrics over vegetation-relevant time-periods across major world climatic zones: M12, the mean ozone during 08:00–19:59; AOT40, the accumulation of hourly mean ozone values over 40 ppb during daylight hours, and W126 with stronger weighting to higher hourly mean values, accumulated during 08:00–19:59. Although the density of measurement stations is highly variable across regions, in general, the highest ozone values (mean, 2010–14) are in mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, including southern USA, the Mediterranean basin, northern India, north, north-west and east China, the Republic of Korea and Japan. The lowest metric values reported are in Australia, New Zealand, southern parts of South America and some northern parts of Europe, Canada and the USA. Regional-scale assessments showed, for example, significantly higher AOT40 and W126 values in East Asia (EAS) than Europe (EUR) in wheat growing areas (p < 0.05), but not in rice growing areas. In NAM, the dominant trend during 1995–2014 was a significant decrease in ozone, whilst in EUR it was no change and in EAS it was a significant increase. TOAR-Vegetation provides recommendations to facilitate a more complete global assessment of ozone impacts on vegetation in the future, including: an increase in monitoring of ozone and collation of field evidence of the damaging effects on vegetation; an investigation of the effects on peri-urban agriculture and in mountain/upland areas; inclusion of additional pollutant, meteorological and inlet height data in the TOAR dataset; where not already in existence, establishing new region-specific thresholds for vegetation damage and an innovative integration of observations and modelling including stomatal uptake of the pollutant.

Summary Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests ( MTF s) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization‐induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTF s against large‐scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTF s. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change. Contents Summary 852 I. Introduction 852 II. Increasing mortality rates in the Amazon Basin 854 III. Global and regional mortality drivers and mechanisms 855 IV. On the coupling of mortality drivers and mechanisms 859 V. Mitigating factors that may promote future survival 859 VI. The state of ESM simulations of moist tropical tree mortality 859 VII. Next steps 860 VIII. Conclusions 863 Acknowledgements 863 ORCID 863 References 863

There has been an increasing awareness of the possibility of climate change causing increased drought frequency in Amazonia, with ensuing impacts on ecosystems and human populations. This debate has been brought into focus by the 1997/1998 and 2005 Amazonian droughts. We analysed the spatial extent of these droughts and fire response to the 2005 drought with TRMM and NOAA‐12 data, respectively. Both droughts had distinct fingerprints. The 2005 drought was characterized by its intensification throughout the dry season in south‐western Amazonia. During 2005 the annual cumulative number of hot pixels in Amazonia increased 33% in relation to the 1999–2005 mean. In the Brazilian state of Acre, at the epicentre of the 2005 drought, the area of leakage forest fires was more than five times greater than the area directly deforested. Fire leakage into flammable forests may be the major agent of biome transformation in the event of increasing drought frequency.

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Abstract In recent years, global hunger has begun to rise, returning to levels from a decade ago. Climate change is a key driver behind these recent rises and is one of the leading causes of severe food crises. When coupled with population growth and land use change, future climate variability is predicted to have profound impacts on global food security. We examine future global impacts of climate variability, population, and land use change on food security to 2050, using the modeling framework FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses national food balance sheets (FBS) to determine mean per capita calories, hence incorporating an assumption that minimum dietary energy requirements (MDER) remain constant. To account for climate variability, we use two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), alongside three Shared Socio‐economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios incorporating land use and population change within the model. Our results indicate that SSP scenarios have a larger impact on future food insecurity, in particular because of projected changes in population. Countries with a projected decrease in population growth had higher food security, while those with a projected rapid population growth tended to experience the worst impacts on food security. Although climate change scenarios had an effect on future crop yields, population growth appeared to be the dominant driver of change in undernourishment prevalence. Therefore, strategies to mitigate the consequences of projected population growth, including improved maternal health care, increasing equality of access to food at the national level, closing the yield gap, and changes in trade patterns, are essential to ensuring severe future food insecurity is avoided.

This article provides an overview of how generalised multi-regional input–output models can be used for carbon footprint applications. We focus on the relevance and suitability of such evidence to inform decision making. Such an overview is currently missing. Drawing on UK results, we cover carbon footprint applications in seven areas: national emissions inventories and trade, emission drivers, economic sectors, supply chains, organisations, household consumption and lifestyles as well as sub-national emission inventories. The article highlights the multiple uses of generalised multi-regional input–output models for carbon footprinting and concludes by highlighting important avenues for future research.

This study quantifies the present-day global and regional distributions (2010–2014) and trends (2000–2014) for five ozone metrics relevant for short-term and long-term human exposure. These metrics, calculated by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, are: 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone (4MDA8); number of days with MDA8 > 70 ppb (NDGT70), SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb) and two seasonally averaged metrics (3MMDA1; AVGMDA8). These metrics were explored at ozone monitoring sites worldwide, which were classified as urban or non-urban based on population and nighttime lights data. Present-day distributions of 4MDA8 and NDGT70, determined predominantly by peak values, are similar with highest levels in western North America, southern Europe and East Asia. For the other three metrics, distributions are similar with North–South gradients more prominent across Europe and Japan. Between 2000 and 2014, significant negative trends in 4MDA8 and NDGT70 occur at most US and some European sites. In contrast, significant positive trends are found at many sites in South Korea and Hong Kong, with mixed trends across Japan. The other three metrics have similar, negative trends for many non-urban North American and some European and Japanese sites, and positive trends across much of East Asia. Globally, metrics at many sites exhibit non-significant trends. At 59% of all sites there is a common direction and significance in the trend across all five metrics, whilst 4MDA8 and NDGT70 have a common trend at ~80% of all sites. Sensitivity analysis shows AVGMDA8 trends differ with averaging period (warm season or annual). Trends are unchanged at many sites when a 1995–2014 period is used; although fewer sites exhibit non-significant trends. Over the longer period 1970–2014, most Japanese sites exhibit positive 4MDA8/SOMO35 trends. Insufficient data exist to characterize ozone trends for the rest of Asia and other world regions.

Summary 1. Despite urbanization being a major driver of land‐use change globally, there have been few attempts to quantify and map ecosystem service provision at a city‐wide scale. One service that is an increasingly important feature of climate change mitigation policies, and with other potential benefits, is biological carbon storage. 2. We examine the quantities and spatial patterns of above‐ground carbon stored in a typical British city, Leicester, by surveying vegetation across the entire urban area. We also consider how carbon density differs in domestic gardens, indicative of bottom‐up management of private green spaces by householders, and public land, representing top‐down landscape policies by local authorities. Finally, we compare a national ecosystem service map with the estimated quantity and distribution of above‐ground carbon within our study city. 3. An estimated 231 521 tonnes of carbon is stored within the above‐ground vegetation of Leicester, equating to 3·16 kg C m −2 of urban area, with 97·3% of this carbon pool being associated with trees rather than herbaceous and woody vegetation. 4. Domestic gardens store just 0·76 kg C m −2 , which is not significantly different from herbaceous vegetation landcover (0·14 kg C m −2 ). The greatest above‐ground carbon density is 28·86 kg C m −2 , which is associated with areas of tree cover on publicly owned/managed sites. 5. Current national estimates of this ecosystem service undervalue Leicester’s contribution by an order of magnitude. 6. Synthesis and applications . The UK government has recently set a target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, from 1990 levels, by 2050. Local authorities are central to national efforts to cut carbon emissions, although the reductions required at city‐wide scales are yet to be set. This has led to a need for reliable data to help establish and underpin realistic carbon emission targets and reduction trajectories, along with acceptable and robust policies for meeting these goals. Here, we illustrate the potential benefits of accounting for, mapping and appropriately managing above‐ground vegetation carbon stores, even within a typical densely urbanized European city.

Tropical deforestation continues at alarming rates with profound impacts on ecosystems, climate, and livelihoods, prompting renewed commitments to halt its continuation. Although it is well established that agriculture is a dominant driver of deforestation, rates and mechanisms remain disputed and often lack a clear evidence base. We synthesize the best available pantropical evidence to provide clarity on how agriculture drives deforestation. Although most (90 to 99%) deforestation across the tropics 2011 to 2015 was driven by agriculture, only 45 to 65% of deforested land became productive agriculture within a few years. Therefore, ending deforestation likely requires combining measures to create deforestation-free supply chains with landscape governance interventions. We highlight key remaining evidence gaps including deforestation trends, commodity-specific land-use dynamics, and data from tropical dry forests and forests across Africa.