Stockholm Environment Institute

Abstract Hundreds of dams have been proposed throughout the Amazon basin, one of the world’s largest untapped hydropower frontiers. While hydropower is a potentially clean source of renewable energy, some projects produce high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit electricity generated (carbon intensity). Here we show how carbon intensities of proposed Amazon upland dams (median = 39 kg CO 2 eq MWh −1 , 100-year horizon) are often comparable with solar and wind energy, whereas some lowland dams (median = 133 kg CO 2 eq MWh −1 ) may exceed carbon intensities of fossil-fuel power plants. Based on 158 existing and 351 proposed dams, we present a multi-objective optimization framework showing that low-carbon expansion of Amazon hydropower relies on strategic planning, which is generally linked to placing dams in higher elevations and smaller streams. Ultimately, basin-scale dam planning that considers GHG emissions along with social and ecological externalities will be decisive for sustainable energy development where new hydropower is contemplated.

Proposed hydropower dams at more than 350 sites throughout the Amazon require strategic evaluation of trade-offs between the numerous ecosystem services provided by Earth's largest and most biodiverse river basin. These services are spatially variable, hence collective impacts of newly built dams depend strongly on their configuration. We use multiobjective optimization to identify portfolios of sites that simultaneously minimize impacts on river flow, river connectivity, sediment transport, fish diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions while achieving energy production goals. We find that uncoordinated, dam-by-dam hydropower expansion has resulted in forgone ecosystem service benefits. Minimizing further damage from hydropower development requires considering diverse environmental impacts across the entire basin, as well as cooperation among Amazonian nations. Our findings offer a transferable model for the evaluation of hydropower expansion in transboundary basins.

This paper presents a fuzzy logic model that integrates daily site reporting of activity progress and delays, with a schedule updating and forecasting system for construction project monitoring and control. The model developed assists in the analysis of the effects of delays on a project’s completion date and consists of several components: An as-built database integrated with project scheduling; a list of potential causes for delays; a procedure to categorize delays; a method of estimating delay durations utilizing fuzzy logic; a procedure that updates the schedule; and, a procedure that evaluates the effects and likely consequences of delays on activity progress. This model is of relevance to researchers since it makes a contribution in project scheduling by developing a complete approach for handling the uncertainty inherent in schedule updating and activity delay analysis. It also advances the application of fuzzy logic in construction. It is of relevance to construction industry practitioners since it provides them with a useful technique for incorporating as-built data into the schedule, assessing the impact of delays on the schedule, and updating the schedule to reflect the consequences of delays and corrective actions taken. The use of fuzzy logic in the model allows linguistic and subjective assessments to be made, and thereby suits the actual practices commonly used in industry.

Illegal organizations, like mafia syndicates, gangs, and insurgencies, are often highly cohesive and hostile toward the outside world. Such groups cultivate a particular form of “anti-social” capital, which relies on ingroup bonding and limits outgroup bridging for the purpose of commissioning illicit acts. We argue that experiences within the group leave members with varying intensities of anti-social capital, and that higher intensities lead to significantly weaker relationships with political institutions and civil society, even many years after they exit the group. We test this theory using survey data from 1,485 former members of insurgent and paramilitary groups in Colombia, along with insights from 68 qualitative interviews. We find strong evidence that anti-social capital has individually varying and sticky effects on former members. These effects are pervasive and intense, and exhibit surprising and counterintuitive properties: former members of pro-state militia with higher levels of anti-social capital are systematically less likely to trust political institutions, while members of peasant-based insurgent groups with high levels of anti-social capital are less likely to participate in their communities.

The implementation of peacebuilding activities, including the demobilization of non-state illegal actors, does not necessarily bring about a reduction in violence. While there are several theories that address the causes of persistent violence, there are few that adequately explain why rates of violence can rapidly increase in a post-demobilization context. Using the method of process tracing, this article explores the case of Córdoba Department, Colombia, where rates of violence have increased after the demobilization of paramilitary groups (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia [AUC]) in 2005. We argue that the AUC created and maintained a monopolistic illegal protection system during its years of operation, and this type of local order was able to contain violence. After demobilization, the protection system was disrupted and as a consequence, new competition between post-demobilization criminal organizations for existing illegal rents developed, petty crime became pervasive, and revenge killings spiked, thus contributing to increased rates of violence in the post-demobilization period. Our theory about the breakdown of protection finds support in other AUC-dominated regions of Colombia.

Is there a need for a new field within Peace Education that looks at the complex dynamics of transitional societies in the post-truth era? What formal and informal pedagogical strategies might be best suited for transforming ‘emotional anti-peace mindsets’? Drawing on practical examples from the complex political contingencies in Colombia, this article positions the concept of Peace Process Pedagogy within discussions in Critical Peace Education and Critical Contemplative Pedagogy. It encourages critical pedagogues to develop strategies to dismantle misinformation about peace policies, to engage in open conversations about emotions, and to work with embodied action.

Abstract Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water‐related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta‐analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite‐based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta‐analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water‐related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

Abstract Increased systems thinking capacity—that is, the capacity to consider systemic effects of policies and actions—is necessary for translating knowledge on Sustainable Development Goals’ (SDGs) interactions into practice. Various models and tools that seek to support more evidence-based policy-making have been developed with the purpose of exploring system effects across SDGs. However, these often lack integration of behavioral aspects and contextual factors that influence the decision-making process. We analyze three applications of a decision-support approach called SDG Synergies, which aims at building capacity in systems thinking among decision-makers and implementing agencies. Our objective is to explore how behavior and context influences whether and how knowledge is taken up and acted upon when making decisions. Drawing on empirical material from Mongolia, Colombia, and Sri Lanka, we identify three sets of mechanisms that appear important for enabling more systemic thinking: system boundaries (time, scale, and space), rules of engagement (ownership, representation, and purpose), and biases (confirmation biases and participation biases). Results highlight some key challenges for systemic thinking that merit further attention in future applications, including the importance of localizing SDGs and incorporating this knowledge to national-level assessments, an unwillingness of stakeholders to acknowledge trade-offs, the challenge of addressing transformational as opposed to incremental change, and striking a balance between the flexibility of the approach vis-à-vis scientific robustness.

Abstract Since the approval of the Agenda 2030, researchers and policy makers have pointed out the need to understand interactions among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—suggesting that progress or the lack of progress toward one goal will affect other goals through systemic interactions, producing synergies and trade-offs. However, most of the methods used to account for these interactions rely on hard systems thinking approaches, which are limited by the absence of needed data below national levels. Moreover, a general lack of data also constrains the scope of analysis to the 17 Goals, ignoring their 169 underlying targets. Given these challenges, we report on an experiment using an example of a soft systems thinking methodology: the SDG Synergies approach, which is based not only on available information but also on the elicitation of stakeholder and expert opinions. Thus, the approach allows for analysis of target-to-target interactions at subnational scales. The study, the first of its kind, assessed interactions at two scales: the national level in Colombia and the subnational level in the department of Antioquia. The results reveal profound differences between the two scales, suggesting that national-scale analysis of SDG interlinkages is not certain to capture local-level realities. The findings raise important issues for understanding and managing cross-scale interactions. Our work suggests that soft systems thinking is more appropriate for assessing SDG interactions because such an approach lends itself to conducting target-level analysis at various scales in the face of limited data availability.

The catchment area of Lakes Titicaca and Poopó is located in the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano in the central Andes of South America. We quantified the impact of irrigation and climate variability on the range of fluctuation of water levels in Lakes Titicaca and Poopó by applying the WEAP model to dynamically represents the hydrology of the catchment area, irrigation and water storage in the lakes. The model is implemented with observed climate datasets for the region, processed at a monthly time step for the historical period 1980–2015. Fluctuations in water levels are mainly controlled by climate variability. Irrigation withdrawals aggravate unfavorable conditions, thus amplifying water level fluctuations. In Lake Titicaca the climate explains about 80 % of the fluctuation range and the remaining ∼20 % is due to irrigation. In Lake Poopó the role of climate also prevails with a contribution of about 65 %, while the remaining 35 % is attributed to irrigation. The difference in the relative contribution of irrigation between the lakes is due to the fact that the net inputs in Lake Poopó depend mostly on regional flows and on the contributions of Lake Titicaca; while in the much larger Lake Titicaca, there are net inputs due to precipitation on the lake surface in addition to the contributions of the tributaries.

Two trends currently shape water resources planning and decision making: reliance on participatory stakeholder processes to evaluate water management options; and growing recognition that deterministic approaches to the evaluation of options may not be appropriate. These trends pose questions regarding the proper role of information, analysis, and expertise in the inherently social and political process of negotiating agreements and implementing interventions in the water sector. The question of how one might discover the best option in the face of deep uncertainty is compelling. The question of whether the best option even exists to be discovered is more vexing. While such existential questions are not common in the water management community, they are not new to political theory. This paper explores early classical writing related to issues of knowledge and governance as captured in the work of Plato and Aristotle; and then attempts to place a novel, analysis-supported, stakeholder-driven water resources planning and decision making practice within this philosophical discourse, making reference to current decision theory. Examples from the Andes and California, where this practice has been used to structure participation by key stakeholders in water management planning and decision-making, argue that when a sufficiently diverse group of stakeholders is engaged in the decision making process expecting the discovery of the perfect option may not be warranted. Simply discovering a consensus option may be more realistic. The argument touches upon the diversity of preferences, model credibility and the visualization of model output required to explore the implications of various management options across a broad range of inherently unknowable future conditions.

Background: Remote monitoring technology that is specifically designed to be integrated into automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) systems gives both patients and their clinical team a powerful tool that can enhance communication, potentially improve adherence to the treatment, optimize fluid balance, and address potential complications of therapy in near real time. Objective: The objective of this study was to describe the implementation and early stages of an APD remote monitoring program as well as some early outcomes associated with this program. Methods: A cross-sectional study in incident and prevalent APD patients older than 18 years, who utilized remote monitoring and was enrolled to Renal Therapy Services Colombia network during the period from January 1 to December 31, 2017. For the analysis, we used descriptive statistics. Results: A program was implemented to provide training in the operation of both the device and the remote monitoring platform. Monitoring indicators were identified for the remote monitoring program to improve the safety and quality of the treatment; these indicators refer to characteristics of the APD prescription, adherence to the APD prescription, and blood pressure control. The adherence to APD treatment was 90.1%. Conclusions: A remote monitoring program for APD patients may be easily and efficiently implemented in health-care settings and may become a useful tool for the continuous improvement of the therapy through the development and monitoring of key clinical indicators.

♦ BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding the financial burden of peritonitis and the economic impact of continuous quality improvement (CQI) programs in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. The objectives of this study were to measure the costs of peritonitis, and determine the net savings of a PD CQI program in Colombia. ♦ METHODS: The Renal Therapy Services (RTS) network in Colombia, along with Coomeva EPS, provided healthcare resource utilization data for PD patients with and without peritonitis between January 2012 and December 2013. Propensity score matching and regression analysis were performed to estimate the incremental cost of peritonitis. Patient months at risk, episodes of peritonitis pre- and post-CQI, and costs of CQI were obtained. Annual net savings of the CQI program were estimated based on the number of peritonitis events prevented. ♦ RESULTS: The incremental cost of a peritonitis episode was $250. In an 8-year period, peritonitis decreased from 1,837 episodes per 38,596 patient-months in 2006 to 841 episodes per 50,910 patient-months in 2014. Overall, the CQI program prevented an estimated 10,409 episodes of peritonitis. The cost of implementing the CQI program was $147,000 in the first year and $119,000 annually thereafter. Using a five percent discount rate, the net present value of the program was $1,346,431, with an average annual net savings of $207,027. The return on investment (i.e. total savings-program cost/program cost) of CQI was 169%. ♦ CONCLUSION: Continuous quality improvement initiatives designed to reduce rates of peritonitis have a strong potential to generate cost savings.

The Campoalegre River basin and its sub-basins present water-use conflicts. This study seeks to analyze these conflicts using a disaggregated quantitative approach, so as to better understand existing and potential water stress. We find that the estimated future flows are not sufficient to meet future demand, which will create significant water stress, particularly in certain sub-basins. A tool is provided for decision makers to identify potential future water conflicts, as well as strategies to reduce system vulnerability. This study is relevant for other watersheds where pressure on water resources may intensify due to increased water demands.

The hydrologic nonstationarity and uncertainty associated with climate change requires new decision-making methods to incorporate climate change impacts into flood frequency and flood risk analyses. To aid decision-making under climate change, we developed a bottom-up approach for assessing the performance of flood management systems under climate uncertainty and nonstationarity. The developed bottom-up approach was applied to the American River, CA, USA flood management system by first identifying the sensitivity and vulnerability of the system to different climates. To do this, we developed a climate response surface by calculating and plotting Expected Annual Damages (EAD, $/year) under different flood regimes. Next, we determined a range of plausible future climate change and flood frequency scenarios by applying Bayesian statistical methods to projected future flows derived from a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with Global Circulation Model (GCM) output. We measured system robustness as the portion of plausible future scenarios under which the current flood system could meet its performance goal. Using this approach, we then evaluated the robustness of four proposed management strategies in the 2012 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan in terms of both flood risk and cost-effectiveness, to assess the performance of the strategies in the face of climate risks. Results indicated that the high sensitivity of the expected damages to changes in flood regimes makes the system extremely vulnerable to a large portion of the plausible range of future flood conditions. The management strategy that includes a combination of nature-based flood management actions along with engineered structures yields the greatest potential to increase system robustness in terms of maintaining EAD below an acceptable risk threshold. However, this strategy still leaves the system vulnerable to a wide range of plausible future conditions. As flood frequency regimes increase in intensity from the current conditions, the cost-effectiveness of the management strategies increases, to a point, before decreasing. This bottom up analysis demonstrated a viable decision-making approach for water managers in the face of uncertain and changing future conditions. Neglecting to use such an approach and omitting climate considerations from water resource planning could lead to strategies that do not perform as expected or which actually lead to mal-adaptations, increasing vulnerability to climate change.

Abstract The world’s large and growing appetite for meat and other animal products has profound implications for One Health, given its impacts on human health, the environment and animal health and welfare. Accordingly, there is robust evidence that a reduction of animal product consumption is urgently needed in regions where these consumption levels are currently high. A shift away from industrial animal production should be prioritized, given the high levels of animal product consumption this kind of system enables, its relatively high environmental toll, linkages to increasing risks of antimicrobial resistance and zoonoses emergence and harm to animal welfare. Until recently, however, few governments addressed the issue. On the contrary, many governments actively support industrial animal agriculture through subsidies and other measures. Now, motivated by both environmental and public health concerns, policy makers in several countries are adopting regulatory and financial measures to address the overconsumption of animal products. Although these changes are clearly necessary and long overdue, it is crucial that they are planned carefully and inclusively to ensure a just transition. In lower-resourced and food-insecure settings, meat and other animal products can be a vital source of nutrients – particularly during infancy and childhood. In addition, meat supply chains support many livelihoods, and meat is an important part of many people’s social and cultural traditions. This means that policies that curtail common production practices, reduce meat output and raise meat prices could have significant impacts across society. A just transition approach can help ensure that the costs and benefits of the transition are more equitably distributed and protect the most vulnerable stakeholders. By doing so, it can also help increase public support for the transition. The concept of just transitions is well established in the energy sector but is only starting to be recognized in the context of the food system. Governments in the Global North should take the lead in this area, given these countries have very high levels of animal product consumption and more resources available to support a transition. In this Policy Forum, we lay out the case for a just transition in animal agriculture and identify five principles to guide policy makers in promoting a just transition away from systems of industrial meat production and overconsumption. One Health impact statement Drawing on expertise from health, climate, biodiversity and animal welfare policy and science across several regions, this Policy Forum demonstrates how current levels of animal product production and consumption threaten One Health. Although a transition to a healthier, more sustainable and more compassionate food system is clearly needed, such a transition will necessarily involve both costs and benefits for affected stakeholders. Identifying lessons from international and national climate policy, and energy policy in particular, the authors highlight the value of an approach that is holistic and centred on just transition principles to support a transition away from large-scale animal product production and consumption that is in line with the One Health approach, with an emphasis on transitioning away from the consumption and production of industrially-produced meat. This Policy Forum is relevant to policy makers, companies and civil society seeking to promote a shift towards food systems that emphasize public and planetary health.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Technique failure in peritoneal dialysis (PD) remains one of the most critical challenges of this therapy and is associated with a significant increase in costs and morbidity. Our objective was to estimate the frequency of PD technique failure and identify factors associated with technique failure. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective multicenter observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: All adult patients initiating PD between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2015, with follow-up until December 31, 2018, at the Renal Therapy Services network in Colombia. EXPOSURE & PREDICTORS: PD modality (continuous ambulatory PD and automated PD) and demographic and clinical characteristics. OUTCOMES: Technique failure, defined as a switch to hemodialysis lasting at least 30 days. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of all patients were summarized descriptively according to modality. We estimated the cumulative incidence of technique failure, and a flexible parametric survival model with competing risks was used to evaluate factors associated with this outcome. RESULTS: Among 6,452 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 67% were treated with continuous ambulatory PD. The cumulative incidence of technique failure within 1 year of PD initiation adjusting for competing risks was 6.9% (95% CI, 6.3%-7.6%); within 2 years, technique failure was 13.5% (95% CI, 12.6%-14.4%); and within 3 years, 19.6% (95% CI, 18.5%-20.7%). Female sex, larger center size, and higher Kt/V were associated with lower risk for modality change, whereas diabetes, history of major abdominal surgery, catheter implant technique (laparotomy and percutaneous techniques), obesity, and peritonitis were associated with a higher likelihood of technique failure. LIMITATIONS: Variables of distance to the center, use of icodextrin, and measures of outcomes reported by patients were not included. CONCLUSIONS: Technique failure is relatively uncommon in Colombia; catheter-related problems are the most frequent cause of technique failure. Best practices in catheter insertion could minimize the risk for this outcome.

The limited availability of high-resolution monitoring systems for the drought phenomena and water dynamics affected by weather anomalies hinders policy decisions in a multitude of ways. This paper introduces the availability of the high-resolution Water Monitoring System (WMS) developed from a mix of sophisticated multi-spectral satellite imageries, analytic and data sciences, and cloud computing, for monitoring the changes in water levels and vegetation water stress at the local scale. The WMS was tested in the Lower Mekong Region (LMR) case basin, Thailand’s Chi River Basin, in the period from January 2021 to April 2021, the dry season. The overall quality of the VHI, VCI, TCI, and NDVI drought simulation results showed a statistically positive Pearson correlation with the reservoir and dam water volume data (ranged between 0.399 and 0.575) but demonstrated a strong negative correlation with the groundwater level data (between −0.355 and −0.504). Further investigation and more detailed analysis of the influence of different physical environmental conditions related to change in groundwater level should be considered to increase scientific knowledge and understanding about the changing nature of the local system from local perspectives with the alternative use of drought indices in data-poor areas. Our result suggests that the WMS can provide quantitative spatiotemporal variations of localized and contextualized surface water changes as a preliminary analysis. The WMS results can offer guidance for finding a better smaller unit management that suits the local conditions, such as water resource management, disaster risk reduction measures (i.e., drought and flood), irrigation practice, land use planning, and crop management. The existing WMS is geared toward the early warning of water and agricultural development, progress on the SDGs, utilization of digital innovation, and improved abilities of decision-makers to monitor and foresee extreme weather events earlier and with high spatial accuracy.

River basin planning in Bolivia is a relatively new endeavor that is primed for innovation and learning. One important learning opportunity relates to connecting watershed planning to processes within other planning units (e.g., municipalities) that have water management implications. A second opportunity relates to integrating watershed management, with a focus on land-based interventions, and water resources management, with a focus on the use and control of surface and groundwater resources. Bolivia’s River Basin Policy and its primary planning instrument, the River Basin Master Plan (PDC in Spanish), provide the relevant innovation and learning context. Official guidance related to PDC development lacks explicit instructions related to the use of analytical tools, the definition of spatially and temporally dis-aggregated indicators to evaluate specific watershed and water management interventions, and a description of the exact way stakeholders engage in the evaluation process. This paper describes an effort to adapt the tenets of a novel planning support practice, Robust Decision Support (RDS), to the official guidelines of PDC development. The work enabled stakeholders to discern positive and negative interactions among water management interventions related to overall system performance, hydrologic risk management, and ecosystem functions; use indicators across varying spatial and temporal reference frames; and identify management strategies to improve outcomes and mitigate cross-regional or inter-sectorial conflicts.

The interlinkages between water for irrigation and for fish habitat are complex. This is particularly true in the Stung Chinit, a tributary to one of the most robust fisheries in the world, where livelihoods rely heavily on rice production and fishing and there is pressure to increase rice production with increased irrigation. This study assesses the tradeoffs between various management options and irrigation strategies in the Stung Chinit watershed under multiple projections of climate change. Due to the relative demands for instream flows and rice, if dry season rice is widely promoted, flows will be severely impacted. However, implementing a flow requirement protects these flows, while only causing minor shortages to rice when planted once or twice per year. These shortages may be alleviated with improved cooperation, management and shifting rice irrigation practices. While climate change will lead to warming temperatures and potentially higher demands for irrigation, the larger threat to rice and ecosystems appears to be water management (or lack thereof). This study suggests that there is sufficient water in the system to expand the irrigated area by 10%, grow rice twice per year and protect downstream flows under climate change; however, well-coordinated management is required to achieve this.