U.S. Energy Information Administration

The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2016 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). IEO2016 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, federal and state governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO2016 energy consumption projections are divided according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and nonmembers (non-OECD). OECD members are divided into three basic country groupings: OECD Americas (United States, Canada, and Mexico/Chile), OECD Europe, and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand). Non-OECD countries are divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (which includes Russia); non-OECD Asia (which includes China and India); Middle East; Africa; and non-OECD Americas (which includes Brazil). In some instances, the IEO2016 energy production models have different regional aggregations to reflect important production sources (for example, Middle East OPEC is a key region in the projections for liquids production). Complete regional definitions are listed in Appendix M. IEO2016 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Nonmarketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2016 projections are based on existing U.S. and foreign government laws and regulations. In general, IEO2016 reflects the effects of current policies—often stated through regulations—within the projections. EIA analysts attempt to interpret the likely effects of announced country targets when the implementation of those targets will require new policies that have not been formulated or announced.

The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, and renewable energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding the content of the AER and other EIA publications.

Successes with expert systems and other specialized systems have revived hopes for factory automation and productivity growth. A full realization of these potentials will require conscious effort to overcome obsolete rigidities, to develop unified and adaptive methods for integrating complex systems, and to increase our understanding of these systems (understanding which is vital to human productivity in developing software). How adaptive systems may be built and understood by extending control theory and statistics is discussed. Adaptive systems, like human infants, are less agile than young monkeys but have something important to contribute as they mature. It argues that the old dream of understanding intelligence in generalized terms, permitting a unified understanding of adaptive systems and of the human mind, was not incorrect; rather, the early attempts in that direction failed because they did not make full use of research possibilities in statistics, control theory, and numerical analysis (many of which are still unexploited) and were limited by hardware costs which are now coming down. A basic adaptive system derived from this approach fits the fundamental, qualitative empirical facts of human brain physiology in some detail (unlike the usual "general neuron models," which rarely even discriminate between basic components of the brain), and offers opportunities for further research; it can even translate certain fundamental ideas of Freud into something more mathematical and scientific. The mathematics of the basic system, and the fit to the brain, are described in detail.

Abstract We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources, we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.

BACKGROUND: Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. RESULTS: Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. CONCLUSIONS: Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help distinguish livestock methane emissions from those of other sectors in future top-down studies. The revised estimates allow improved reconciliation of top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane emissions, will facilitate the development and evaluation of Earth system models, and provide consistent regional and global Tier 1 estimates for environmental assessments.

A new strategy is presented for large-scale optimization. The Boxstep method creates an algorithmic continuum between feasible-directions methods and cutting-plane methods. Several specific applications are described and computational results are reported.

ABSTRACT The installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) systems has recently increased at a much faster rate than the development of grid codes to effectively and efficiently manage high penetrations of PV within the distribution system. In a number of countries, PV penetrations in some regions are now raising growing concerns regarding integration. Management strategies vary considerably by country—some still have an approach that PV systems should behave as passive as possible, whereas others demand an active participation in grid control. This variety of grid codes also causes challenges in learning from “best practice.” This paper provides a review of current grid codes in some countries with high PV penetrations. In addition, the paper presents a number of country‐specific case studies on different approaches for improved integration of PV systems in the distribution grid. In particular, we consider integration approaches using active and reactive power control that can reduce or defer expensive grid reinforcement while supporting higher PV penetrations. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and international energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding the content of the AER and other EIA publications.

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a large-scale mathematical model that computes equilibrium fuel prices and quantities in the U.S. energy sector and is currently in use at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). At present, to generate these equilibrium values, NEMS iteratively solves a sequence of linear programs and nonlinear equations. This is a nonlinear Gauss-Seidel approach to arrive at estimates of market equilibrium fuel prices and quantities. In this paper, we present existence and uniqueness results for NEMS-type models based on a nonlinear complementarity/variational inequality problem format. Also, we document mathematically, for the first time, how the inputs and the outputs for each NEMS module link together.

Abstract This paper is the summation of several analyses to assess the size and benefits of a Billion Ton Bioeconomy, a vision to enable a sustainable market for producing and converting a billion tons of US biomass to bio‐based energy, fuels, and products by 2030. Two alternative biomass availability scenarios in 2030, defined as the (i) Business‐as‐usual (598 million dry tons) and (ii) Billion Ton (1042 million dry tons), establish a range of possible outcomes for the future bioeconomy. The biomass utilized in the current (2014) (365 million dry tons) economy is estimated to displace approximately 2.4% of fossil energy consumption and avoid 116 million tons of CO 2 ‐equivalent ( CO 2 e ) emissions, whereas the Billion Ton bioeconomy of 2030 could displace 9.5% of fossil energy consumption and avoid as much as 446 million tons of CO 2 equivalent emissions annually. Developing the integrated systems, supply chains, and infrastructure to efficiently grow, harvest, transport, and convert large quantities of biomass in a sustainable way could support the transition to a low‐carbon economy. Bio‐based activities in the current (2014) economy are estimated to have directly generated more than $48 billion in revenue and 285 000 jobs. Our estimates show that developing biomass resources and addressing current limitations to achieve a Billion Ton bioeconomy could expand direct bioeconomy revenue by a factor of 5 to contribute nearly $259 billion and 1.1 million jobs to the US economy by 2030. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Control theories claim that information about performance is often used by multiple goal systems. A proposition tested here was that performance information can create discrepancies in self-concept goals, directing cognitive resources away from the task goal system. To manipulate performance information, 160 undergraduates were given false positive or false negative normative feedback while working on a task that did or did not require substantial cognitive resources. Half of the participants were then given an opportunity to reaffirm their self-concepts following feedback, whereas half were not. Feedback sign positively related to performance only for those working on the cognitively intense task and not given a chance to reaffirm. Otherwise, feedback sign was negatively related to performance, albeit weakly.

Abstract The powers of several nonparametric tests for the two-sample problem with censored data are compared by simulation. The tests studied include Gehan's, Efron's, and Peto's, and Prentice's generalized Wilcoxon tests, along with the logrank test. The test with the greatest power changes with the sample sizes, censoring mechanism, and distribution of the random variables. The test that performed the best overall was the Peto-Prentice generalized Wilcoxon statistic with an asymptotic variance estimate.

A-site ordered PrBaMn2O(5+δ) was investigated as a potential cathode for CO2 electrolysis using a La(0.9)Sr(0.1)Ga(0.8)Mg(0.2)O3 (LSGM) electrolyte. The A-site ordered layered double perovskite, PrBaMn2O(5+δ), was found to enhance electrocatalytic activity for CO2 reduction on the cathode side since it supports mixed valent transition metal cations such as Mn, which could provide high electrical conductivity and maintain a large oxygen vacancy content, contributing to fast oxygen ion diffusion. It was found that during the oxidation of the reduced PrBaMn2O(5+δ) (O5 phase) to PrBaMn2O(6-δ) (O6 phase), a reversible oxygen switchover in the lattice takes place. In addition, here the successful CO2 electrolysis was measured in LSGM electrolyte with this novel oxide electrode. It was found that this PrBaMn2O(5+δ), layered perovskite cathode exhibits a performance with a current density of 0.85 A cm(-2) at 1.5 V and 850 °C and the electrochemical properties were also evaluated by impedance spectroscopy.

We study the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in the USA using a multivariate time-varying model [1973Q1--2014Q1]. We show that the combination of disaggregation into specific fuels and time variation gives more nuanced results than the alternatives for the USA. Specifically, we find that the Granger causal relationship between total energy and real US GDP is bi-directional through much of the 1990s, but unidirectional running from real US GDP to energy consumption in the 2000s. As for each fuel, similar patterns of change were observed in the causal relationship between coal consumption and real US GDP. Oil consumption largely shows a bi-directional relationship between consumption and US GDP, especially after 2009. And natural gas consumption shows a brief period in the early-to-mid 2000s where US GDP predicts energy consumption, but primarily shows that natural gas consumption and economic growth are independent.

Abstract Telephone surveys have been a ubiquitous method of collecting survey data, but the environment for telephone surveys is changing. Many surveys are transitioning from telephone to self-administration or combinations of modes for both recruitment and survey administration. Survey organizations are conducting these transitions from telephone to mixed modes with only limited guidance from existing empirical literature and best practices. This article summarizes findings by an AAPOR Task Force on how these transitions have occurred for surveys and research organizations in general. We find that transitions from a telephone to a self-administered or mixed-mode survey are motivated by a desire to control costs, to maintain or improve data quality, or both. The most common mode to recruit respondents when transitioning is mail, but recent mixed-mode studies use only web or mail and web together as survey administration modes. Although early studies found that telephone response rates met or exceeded response rates to the self-administered or mixed modes, after about 2013, response rates to the self-administered or mixed modes tended to exceed those for the telephone mode, largely because of a decline in the telephone mode response rates. Transitioning offers opportunities related to improved frame coverage and geographic targeting, delivery of incentives, visual design of an instrument, and cost savings, but challenges exist related to selecting a respondent within a household, length of a questionnaire, differences across modes in use of computerization to facilitate skip patterns and other questionnaire design features, and lack of an interviewer for respondent motivation and clarification. Other challenges related to surveying youth, conducting surveys in multiple languages, collecting nonsurvey data such as biomeasures or consent to link to administrative data, and estimation with multiple modes are also prominent.

MoFe-PC exhibits a high yield rate and faradaic efficiency for NH₃ electrosynthesis in acidic electrolytes due to the multicomponent active sites and inherent porous structure.

We document that, starting in the Fall of2008, the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has periodically traded at unheard-of discounts to the corresponding Brent benchmark. We further document that this discount is not reflected in spreads between Brent and other benchmarks that are directly comparable to WTI. Drawing on extant models linking oil inventory conditions to the futures term structure, we test empirically several conjectures about how calendar and commodity spreads (nearby vs. first-deferred WTI; nearby Brent vs. WTI) should move over time and be related to storage conditions at Cushing. We then investigate whether, after controlling for macroeconomic and physical market fundamentals, spread behavior is partly predicted by the aggregate oil futures positions of commodity index traders.

Abstract This paper is concerned with the role and impact of uncertainty in the forecast of electricity demand. In particular, the emphasis is upon how uncertainty about future demand affects current choices and strategies of capacity expansion. The uncertainty in demand is incorporated into both a stochastic linear program with recourse and an ordinary linear program. In the latter case only the “expected value” of demand is considered. The main result of this paper is that under fairly general conditions an ordinary linear program provides the same optimal solution as the more complex stochastic linear program.

Abstract While Big Data offers a potentially less expensive, less burdensome, and more timely alternative to survey data for producing a variety of statistics, it is not without error. The AAPOR Task Force on Big Data and others have called for researchers to evaluate the quality of Big Data using an approach similar to the total survey error (TSE) framework. However, differences in the construction of, access to, and overall data structure between survey data and Big Data make application of TSE difficult. In this article, we seek to develop the Total Error Framework (TEF), an extension of the TSE framework, to be (1) more inclusive and applicable to many types of Big Data, (2) comprehensive in that it considers “total” error, and (3) unified in that it allows researchers to compare errors in Big Data to errors in survey data. After outlining this framework, we then illustrate an application of TEF by comparing error in housing unit area (square footage) estimates collected in a survey (the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey [RECS]) to those estimates found in three Big Data databases (Zillow.com, Acxiom, and CoreLogic).

Developing low-cost and highly efficient electrocatalysts for overall water splitting is of far-reaching significance for new energy conversion. Herein, dual-cation Fe, Al-co-doped NiSe2 nanoparticles on reduced graphene oxide (Fe, Al-NiSe2/rGO) were prepared as a bifunctional electrocatalyst for overall water splitting. The dual-cation doping can induce a stronger electronic interaction between the foreign atoms and host catalyst, for optimizing the adsorption energy of reaction intermediates. Meanwhile, the leaching out of Al from the crystal structure of the target product during the alkaline wash creates more defects and increases the active site exposure. As a result, the Fe, Al-NiSe2/rGO catalyst exhibits excellent catalytic activities for both the OER and HER with an overpotential of 272 mV @η10 for the OER in 1.0 M KOH and 197 mV @η10 for the HER in 0.5 M H2SO4, respectively. A two-electrode electrolyzer using Fe, Al-NiSe2/rGO as the anode and cathode shows a low voltage of 1.70 V at the current density of 10 mA cm-2. This study emphasizes the synergistic contribution of the dual-cation co-doping effect and more defects created by Al leaching to boost the performance of water splitting.