United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia

We exploit the exogenous nature of forced migrations in Colombia to understand how migrations from directly affected areas influence labour markets not directly touched by conflict. Using an instrumental variables strategy, we estimate the causal impact of these migrations on the urban labour market. Our estimates suggest that these migrations substantially reduce wages for urban unskilled workers who compete for jobs with forced migrants. Given the widespread problem of civilian displacement during civil wars in the developing world, and the robust relationship between poverty and civil wars, our results have broad implications for economic development.

Abstract Improvements in land use and management are needed at a global scale to tackle interconnected global challenges of population growth, poverty, migration, climate change, biodiversity loss, and degrading land and water resources. There are hundreds of technical options for improving the sustainability of land management and preventing or reversing degradation, but there are many sociocultural, institutional, economic, and policy barriers hindering their adoption at large scale. To tackle this challenge, the Dryland Systems Program of the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification convened an expert group to consider barriers and incentives to scaling technologies, processes, policies, or institutional arrangements. The group reviewed existing frameworks for scaling sustainable land management (SLM) interventions across a range of contexts and identified eight critical actions for success: (a) plan iteratively; (b) consistently fund; (c) select SLM options for scaling based on best available evidence; (d) identify and engage with stakeholders at all scales; (e) build capacity for scaling; (f) foster institutional leadership and policy change to support scaling; (g) achieve early benefits and incentives for as many stakeholders as possible; and (h) monitor, evaluate, and communicate. Incentives for scaling were identified for the private sector, farmers and their communities, and policy makers. Based on these findings, a new action framework for scaling is presented that analyses the contexts where specific SLM interventions can be scaled, so that SLM options can be screened and adapted to these contexts, piloted and disseminated. The framework can help countries achieve land degradation neutrality.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are heavily dependent on the use of imported fossil fuels to address their energy needs. This has a negative impact on the environment, SIDS budgets, and energy security. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the role of renewable energy (RE) as a tool for energy security in SIDS. In this regard, using VOSviewer, a widely known software tool, two bibliometric analyses were performed with a focus on the literature that explores two intertwined issues: (i) the links between RE and energy security; and (ii) the implications of RE and energy security in SIDS. The results from the study show that RE can help SIDS enhance their energy security and assure long-term energy sustainability. In addition, the results show that with the reduction in the cost of batteries in the future, they will eventually replace diesel generators. Moreover, the study showed that renewable energy may assist SIDS in their long-term efforts to achieve food security. The analysis discusses the major obstacles and the potential solutions for the integration of RES into the energy generation of SIDS. The paper concludes with useful recommendations to help island nations reduce their carbon footprint.

BACKGROUND: In June 2014, an estimated 1500 fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seized control of Mosul, Iraq's second city. Although many residents fled, others stayed behind, enduring the restrictive civil and social policies of ISIS. In December 2016, the military activity, known as the liberation campaign, began in east Mosul, concluding in west Mosul in June 2017. METHODS: To assess life in Mosul under ISIS, and the consequences of the military campaign to retake Mosul we conducted a 40 cluster-30 household survey in Mosul, starting in March 2017. All households included were present in Mosul throughout the entire time of ISIS control and military action. RESULTS: In June 2014, 915 of 1139 school-age children (80.3%) had been in school, but only 28 (2.2%) attended at least some school after ISIS seized control. This represented a decision of families. Injuries to women resulting from intimate partner violence were reported in 415 (34.5%) households. In the surveyed households, 819 marriages had occurred; 688 (84.0%) among women. Of these women, 89 (12.9%) were aged 15 years and less, and 253 (49.7%) were aged under 18 at the time of marriage. With Mosul economically damaged by ISIS control and physically during the Iraqi military action, there was little employment at the time of the survey, and few persons were bringing cash into households. The liberation of Mosul in 2017 caused extensive damage to dwellings. Overall only a quarter of dwellings had not sustained some damage. In west Mosul, only 21.7% of houses had little or no damage from the conflict, with 98 (21.7%) households reporting their house had been destroyed, forcing its occupants to move. No houses had regular electricity and there was limited piped water. Inadequate fuel for cooking was reported by 996 (82.9%) households. CONCLUSION: The physical, and social damage occurring during ISIS occupation of Mosul and during the subsequent military action (liberation) was substantial and its impact is unlikely to be erased soon.

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Agenda calls for targeted attention to the needs and rights of the most vulnerable populations to ensure a life of dignity and human security for all. In this paper, we argue that persons with disabilities are in a disproportionately vulnerable situation in public health emergencies. By using the example of Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), we explain why that is and call for the systematic consideration of the needs and rights of persons with disabilities during the response to the outbreak and during the recovery phase. Otherwise, equity will continue to be merely an aspiration during this COVID-19 emergency - as it will in future health emergencies.

BACKGROUND: The lateral arm flap remains an underused flap, especially as a free flap. In this article, the authors describe the perforator anatomy to optimize flap design and harvest. METHODS: Perforator locations were mapped in 12 cadavers (24 arms), and a retrospective review was conducted of 51 patients undergoing lateral arm flap surgery. RESULTS: One to three reliable perforators supply the lateral arm flap. Based on cadaveric dissections, from the deltoid insertion, the A, B, and C perforators were located at 7.2 ± 1.0 cm, 9.9 ± 1.2 cm, and 11.8 ± 0.8 cm, which was 0.44, 0.61, and 0.72 of the distance from the deltoid insertion, respectively. The average pedicle length was 7.0 ± 1.1 cm. The cadavers were entirely symmetric in the number and location of the perforators between the right and left arms. All 51 patients (24 male and 27 female patients) had at least one perforator with an average pedicle length of 7.0 ± 1.3 cm, an average arterial diameter of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm, and a vein diameter of 2.5 ± 0.5 mm. All but one flap was performed as a free flap for head and neck reconstruction, with one pedicled flap for shoulder reconstruction. The average flap size was 72.2 ± 37.1 cm (range, 21 to 165 cm). The nondominant arm was used for all free flaps. There were no total or partial flap losses. Twenty-eight patients reported donor-site numbness, with one infection, one hematoma, and one wound dehiscence. CONCLUSION: The lateral arm flap can be harvested reliably based on well-defined perforators and anatomical landmarks with minimal donor-site morbidity and should be included among the techniques used by reconstructive microsurgeons. CLINICAL QUESTION/LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic, IV.

OBJECTIVE: Children entering first grade at the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) schools in West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria complete a comprehensive medical examination at UNRWA health centres (HCs) as a requirement for their acceptance. Our study aimed to assess anaemia prevalence and undernutrition indicators among new entrant school children during their preschool medical examination. SETTINGS: In 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional study in 59 UNRWA HCs, targeting children entering first grade at UNRWA schools in four of UNRWA's countries of operation (known as fields), namely Gaza, West Bank, Syria and Lebanon. PARTICIPANTS: 2419 completed the study. Boys and girls living inside or outside Palestine refugee camps were included. Verbal consent was obtained from their parents. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Sociodemographic and anthropometric data on each child were collected. Underweight (weight-for-age z-score <-2 SD), stunting (height-for-age z-score <-2 SD), thinness (body mass index-for-age z-score <-2 SD) and obesity (body mass index-for-age z-score >+2 SD) were examined according to WHO growth indicators (5-10 years). RESULTS: 2419 students (1278 girls and 1141 boys) aged 6.1±0.4 years were examined. The prevalence of anaemia (haemoglobin (Hb) <11.5 g/L) was 25.0% (Gaza: 29.3%; West Bank: 22.0%; Syria: 30.0%; Lebanon: 18.3%). The mean Hb level was 12.0±0.9 g/L. The overall prevalence of stunting, thinness and underweight was 3.2%, 3.5% and 5.6%, respectively, with the highest levels found in Syria (4.3%, 6.3% and 10.1%, respectively). The highest prevalence of overweight was in Lebanon (8.6%), and the lowest was in Gaza (2.6%). Significant differences were found among fields with regard to undernutrition indicators (p=0.001). Also, children with anaemia had significantly higher prevalence of being underweight (5.2%) in comparison with those without anaemia (p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of anaemia among the surveyed children increased to 25.0%, compared with the previous study conducted by UNRWA in 2005 (19.5%). Thus, it is recommended that Hb testing be included in the medical examination of new entrant school children attending UNRWA schools.

The Middle East and North Africa is one of the world’s most rapidly transforming regions, politically, economically, demographically and environmentally. Despite largely declining total fertility rates, the momentum of absolute population growth will mean that the region surpasses China in terms of total population by 2090. Land degradation, water stress and trends of urbanisation will also have significant impacts upon the future development of this region. In contending with the coming social, ecological and climatic shifts facing the region, policymakers will need to effectively capture the multi-faceted dynamics of these challenges but also opportunities. This paper outlines the key demographic and economic trends and transitions underway across MENA countries as material factors informing the efficacy of future policy responses to these emergent trends. Demographic trends in age-specific and gender ratios are discussed, before exploring transitions in fertility rates, migration, conflict, social welfare and urbanisation along with the possible implications of such transitions. Later, key economic factors are assessed, including correlations between resources endowments, labour market performance (particularly rates of youth unemployment), public debt and expenditure figures, and trade performance indicators. Considered together, a sub-regional disaggregation of these economic factors is presented, characterising emerging trends and challenges across the region and its broader integration into the global economy.

BACKGROUND: While community health workers are being recognized as an integral work force with growing responsibilities, increased demands can potentially affect motivation and performance. The ubiquity of mobile phones, even in hard-to-reach communities, has facilitated the pursuit of novel approaches to support community health workers beyond traditional modes of supervision, job aids, in-service training, and material compensation. We tested whether supportive short message services (SMS) could improve reporting of pregnancies and pregnancy outcomes among community health workers (Health Surveillance Assistants, or HSAs) in Malawi. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We designed a set of one-way SMS that were sent to HSAs on a regular basis during a 12-month period. We tested the effectiveness of the cluster-randomized intervention in improving the complete documentation of a pregnancy. We defined complete documentation as a pregnancy for which a specific outcome was recorded. HSAs in the treatment group received motivational and data quality SMS. HSAs in the control group received only motivational SMS. During baseline and intervention periods, we matched reported pregnancies to reported outcomes to determine if reporting of matched pregnancies differed between groups and by period. The trial is registered as ISCTRN24785657. CONCLUSIONS: Study results show that the mHealth intervention improved the documentation of matched pregnancies in both the treatment (OR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10-1.55, p<0.01) and control (OR 1.46, 95% CI: 1.11-1.91, p = 0.01) groups relative to the baseline period, despite differences in SMS content between groups. The results should be interpreted with caution given that the study was underpowered. We did not find a statistically significant difference in matched pregnancy documentation between groups during the intervention period (OR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.63-1.38, p = 0.74). mHealth applications have the potential to improve the tracking and data quality of pregnancies and pregnancy outcomes, particularly in low-resource settings.

INTRODUCTION: Most low-income countries lack complete and accurate vital registration systems. As a result, measures of under-five mortality rates rely mostly on household surveys. In collaboration with partners in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Mali, we assessed the completeness and accuracy of reporting of births and deaths by community-based health workers, and the accuracy of annualized under-five mortality rate estimates derived from these data. Here we report on results from Ethiopia, Malawi and Mali. METHOD: In all three countries, community health workers (CHWs) were trained, equipped and supported to report pregnancies, births and deaths within defined geographic areas over a period of at least fifteen months. In-country institutions collected these data every month. At each study site, we administered a full birth history (FBH) or full pregnancy history (FPH), to women of reproductive age via a census of households in Mali and via household surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi. Using these FBHs/FPHs as a validation data source, we assessed the completeness of the counts of births and deaths and the accuracy of under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates from the community-based method against the retrospective FBH/FPH for rolling twelve-month periods. For each method we calculated total cost, average annual cost per 1,000 population, and average cost per vital event reported. RESULTS: On average, CHWs submitted monthly vital event reports for over 95 percent of catchment areas in Ethiopia and Malawi, and for 100 percent of catchment areas in Mali. The completeness of vital events reporting by CHWs varied: we estimated that 30%-90% of annualized expected births (i.e. the number of births estimated using a FPH) were documented by CHWs and 22%-91% of annualized expected under-five deaths were documented by CHWs. Resulting annualized under-five mortality rates based on the CHW vital events reporting were, on average, under-estimated by 28% in Ethiopia, 32% in Malawi, and 9% in Mali relative to comparable FPHs. Costs per vital event reported ranged from $21 in Malawi to $149 in Mali. DISCUSSION: Our findings in Mali suggest that CHWs can collect complete and high-quality vital events data useful for monitoring annual changes in under-five mortality rates. Both the supervision of CHWs in Mali and the rigor of the associated field-based data quality checks were of a high standard, and the size of the pilot area in Mali was small (comprising of approximately 53,205 residents in 4,200 households). Hence, there are remaining questions about whether this level of vital events reporting completeness and data quality could be maintained if the approach was implemented at scale. Our experience in Malawi and Ethiopia suggests that, in some settings, establishing and maintaining the completeness and quality of vital events reporting by CHWs over time is challenging. In this sense, our evaluation in Mali falls closer to that of an efficacy study, whereas our evaluations in Ethiopia and Malawi are more akin to an effectiveness study. Our overall findings suggest that no one-size-fits-all approach will be successful in guaranteeing complete and accurate reporting of vital events by CHWs.

This paper estimates the impact of Tunisia's tax and transfer system on inequality and poverty and assesses the benefits from public spending on education and health. Results show that Tunisia's redistributive fiscal policy reduces inequality and extreme poverty significantly. However, based on the national poverty line, the headcount ratio increases, implying that a large number of the poor people pay more in taxes than they receive in cash transfers and subsidies. This is due to a relatively high burden of personal income taxes and social security contributions for low‐income households.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of low socioeconomic status indicators, specifically parental educational and occupational characteristics on neonatal health outcomes. METHODS: Analysis of 3372 newborn infants admitted to five National Collaborative Perinatal Neonatal Network centers (1 February 2000 to 31 January 2002). Outcomes included birth weight, gestational age, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and length of hospital stay. The independent effects of mother's education and occupation as well as father's occupation on health outcomes were assessed by means of stepwise logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 271 (8.0%) infants were of low birth weight, 306 (9.1%) were preterm, 410 (12.2%) had NICU admissions and 240 (7.1%) were hospitalized for more than a week. After adjusting for maternal gravidity, age, smoking during pregnancy and pregnancy-related complications, parental socioeconomic characteristics had no significant impact on low birth weight or preterm birth. NICU admission and prolonged hospitalization were significantly correlated with skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled paternal occupations. Illiterate mothers had nearly 3-5 times the risk of NICU admission and prolonged hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Both father's occupation and mother's education play an important role as determinants of neonatal morbidity characteristics.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of gender-based violence (GBV) programs is challenging in humanitarian settings. To address these challenges, we used SenseMaker® as a mixed methods M&E tool for GBV services and programs in Lebanon. Over a three-month period in 2018, a total of 198 self-interpreted stories were collected from women and girls accessing GBV programs from six service providers across five locations. The resultant mixed-methods analysis provided holistic and nuanced insights on how perceived benefits differed by type of GBV program, how motivations for accessing programs differed by location, and how feelings while accessing programs differed by participant nationality. SenseMaker reinforced the intersectionality between events leading up to the accessed services, the experiences of accessing the services, and subsequent outcomes as a result of having accessed the services, helping to contextualize the findings within the broader experiences of participating women and girls. Limited literacy and technology skills among participants proved to be a challenge and future work should investigate how technology might facilitate use of the tool among participants with lower literacy and technology skills in addition to exploring the feasibility and added value of SenseMaker as an M&E tool in acute humanitarian settings.

Seasonal drought is often overlooked because its impacts are less devasting than meteorological or hydrological drought. Nevertheless, short-term drought can have significant impacts on soil moisture content, agricultural crop yield, and sand and dust storms. Using data obtained from bias-corrected regional climate modelling (RCM) outputs, future seasonal drought is investigated over the water-scarce Arab domain using SPI-3. The climate modelling outputs include three downscaled mainframe GCMs downscaled using a single RCM for two climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results across the region exhibit spatial and temporal variability. For example, Rift Valley, in the eastern sub-Sahara, projects less frequent and less severe drought, particularly during the winter (DJF) months. Conversely, the Morocco Highlands and adjacent Mediterranean coast signals a dramatic increase in drought by end-century during winter (DJF) and spring (MAM). Moderate increase in drought indicated in the greater Mashreq in spring (MAM) can be linked to sand and dust storm risk. Thirdly, autumn drought (SON) is linked to increased forest fire risk in the Levant. Projected increases in drought frequency and severity call for adaptation measures to reduce impacts.

This paper explores on an international basis the incidence of remarriage among total marriages, the levels and differences in remarriage rates among widowed and divorced males and females, and differences between males and females in spouse selection according to the previous marital statuses of spouse and bride or groom. Remarriage rates by sex and previous marital status are estimated using vital registration data in combination with census information; there are 47 countries that have such data. The results of the analyses indicate that there are a number of general patterns of remarriage and spouse selection that tend to hold across countries.

How is the evolving COVID crisis affecting workers’ employment outcomes? Using the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitors for Egypt and Jordan (July ‘20–September ‘21), we estimate probabilistic models of workers’ employment statuses and of their job loss. We confirm that the stringency of COVID regimes affects negatively employment and labor participation, particularly among youths, even if they were not disadvantaged before. Workers’ preexisting status affects their outcome amid COVID, implying strong state dependence of employment. Those laid off amid COVID are predominantly those without formal employment before the pandemic. During the easing of COVID regimes between the fall of 2020 and mid-2021, men’s employment prospects gradually improved, but women experienced a stagnation by being largely excluded from work opportunities irrespective of COVID developments. Youths of both genders are affected more adversely than non-youths during the pandemic, face higher risks of getting laid off, and lower prospects of becoming employed—supporting the ‘last in’ hypothesis.

Fish consumption is a key component in production and marketing decisions. Fish consumers play a key role because fishermen and distributors recognize their purchase choices as a determinant to their operation. Consumers make buying decisions according to market conditions and to various attributes of the product, namely the specie, the form, the place of purchase, the size and the quality. This study is aimed at providing information on Oman consumers’ attitudes and preferences for fish purchase form and market outlets using an information-processing model. It identifies factors for predicting changes in market demand for fish products and services as a result of changes in consumers attributes. Results indicate that on-shore fish markets are the most preferred outlets for the coastal population while retailers and Oman National Fisheries Company are the commonly used outlets. Results also show that whole fish is the most preferred form of purchase for both rural and urban medium to low-income consumers while a large proportion of high-income consumers in urban regions prefer mainly sliced fish. Market development efforts should focus on the organization of on-shore fish markets in coastal regions, and retailers and Oman Fisheries Company’s outlets in the inland areas. Forms other than whole fish may be promoted for sale in supermarkets and specialized shops for the urban high-income consumers group..

research-article Share on Non-traditional data sources: providing insights into sustainable development Authors: Ingmar Weber Qatar Computing Research Institute, Qatar Qatar Computing Research Institute, QatarView Profile , Muhammad Imran Qatar Computing Research Institute, Qatar Qatar Computing Research Institute, QatarView Profile , Ferda Ofli Qatar Computing Research Institute, Qatar Qatar Computing Research Institute, QatarView Profile , Fouad Mrad United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Lebanon United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, LebanonView Profile , Jennifer Colville United Nations Development Programme Regional Hub, Jordan United Nations Development Programme Regional Hub, JordanView Profile , Mehdi Fathallah United Nations Development Programme, Tunisia United Nations Development Programme, TunisiaView Profile , Alissar Chaker United Nations Development Programme, Tunisia United Nations Development Programme, TunisiaView Profile , Wigdan Seed Ahmed United Nations Development Programme, Sudan United Nations Development Programme, SudanView Profile Authors Info & Claims Communications of the ACMVolume 64Issue 4April 2021 pp 88–95https://doi.org/10.1145/3447739Online:22 March 2021Publication History 3citation2,955DownloadsMetricsTotal Citations3Total Downloads2,955Last 12 Months1,108Last 6 weeks67 Get Citation AlertsNew Citation Alert added!This alert has been successfully added and will be sent to:You will be notified whenever a record that you have chosen has been cited.To manage your alert preferences, click on the button below.Manage my Alerts New Citation Alert!Please log in to your account Save to BinderSave to BinderCreate a New BinderNameCancelCreateExport CitationPublisher SiteGet Access

We develop a quarterly macro-econometric model for the Saudi economy over the period 1981Q2- 2018Q2 and integrate it within a compact model of the world economy (including the global oil market). This framework enables us to disentangle the size and speed of the transmission of growth shocks originating from the United States, China and the world economy to Saudi Arabia, as well as study the implications of stress in global financial markets, low oil prices and domestic fiscal adjustment on the Saudi economy. Results show that Saudi Arabia's economy is more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the United States—in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and China's growing role in the global oil market. A global growth slowdown (e.g., from trade tensions or geopolitical developments) could have significant implications for Saudi Arabia (with a growth elasticity of about 2½ after one year) and the oil market (reducing prices by about 5 percent for 0.5 percentage point reduction in global growth). We also illustrate that a 10 percent lower oil prices and stress in global financial markets could both have a negative effect on the Saudi economy, but given the prevailing social contract in Saudi Arabia, their impact is countered by fiscal easing. Finally, we argue that a domestic fiscal adjustment in Saudi Arabia does not show a negative impact on economic growth in the data. The impact on growth would depend upon the quality of fiscal adjustment and whether it is complemented with structural reforms or not.

Abstract This paper explores on an international basis the incidence of remarriage among total marriages, the levels and differences in remarriage rates among widowed and divorced males and females, and differences between males and females in spouse selection according to the previous marital statuses of spouse and bride or groom. Remarriage rates by sex and previous marital status are estimated using vital registration data in combination with census information; there are 47 countries that have such data. The results of the analyses indicate that there are a number of general patterns of remarriage and spouse selection that tend to hold across countries.