United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

A new 1 km global IIASA-IFPRI cropland percentage map for the baseline year 2005 has been developed which integrates a number of individual cropland maps at global to regional to national scales. The individual map products include existing global land cover maps such as GlobCover 2005 and MODIS v.5, regional maps such as AFRICOVER and national maps from mapping agencies and other organizations. The different products are ranked at the national level using crowdsourced data from Geo-Wiki to create a map that reflects the likelihood of cropland. Calibration with national and subnational crop statistics was then undertaken to distribute the cropland within each country and subnational unit. The new IIASA-IFPRI cropland product has been validated using very high-resolution satellite imagery via Geo-Wiki and has an overall accuracy of 82.4%. It has also been compared with the EarthStat cropland product and shows a lower root mean square error on an independent data set collected from Geo-Wiki. The first ever global field size map was produced at the same resolution as the IIASA-IFPRI cropland map based on interpolation of field size data collected via a Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing campaign. A validation exercise of the global field size map revealed satisfactory agreement with control data, particularly given the relatively modest size of the field size data set used to create the map. Both are critical inputs to global agricultural monitoring in the frame of GEOGLAM and will serve the global land modelling and integrated assessment community, in particular for improving land use models that require baseline cropland information. These products are freely available for downloading from the http://cropland.geo-wiki.org website.

Abstract. The Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils has completed the first State of the World's Soil Resources Report. Globally soil erosion was identified as the gravest threat, leading to deteriorating water quality in developed regions and to lowering of crop yields in many developing regions. We need to increase nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use in infertile tropical and semi-tropical soils – the regions where the most food insecurity among us are found – while reducing global use of these products overall. Stores of soil organic carbon are critical in the global carbon balance, and national governments must set specific targets to stabilize or ideally increase soil organic carbon stores. Finally the quality of soil information available for policy formulation must be improved – the regional assessments in the State of the World's Soil Resources Report frequently base their evaluations on studies from the 1990s based on observations made in the 1980s or earlier.

Abstract There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO 2 eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing‐up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.

Abstract This paper uses panel data over the 1960–2000 period, a modified neoclassical growth equation, and a dynamic panel estimator to investigate the effect of higher education human capital on economic growth in African countries. We find that all levels of education human capital, including higher education human capital, have positive and statistically significant effect on the growth rate of per capita income in African counties. Our result differs from those of earlier research that find no significant relationship between higher education human capital and income growth. We estimate the growth elasticity of higher education human capital to be about 0.09, an estimate that is twice as large as the growth impact of physical capital investment. While this is likely to be an overestimate of the growth impact of higher education, it is robust to different specifications and points to the need for African countries to effectively use higher education human capital in growth policies.

BACKGROUND: Skilled attendants during labor, delivery, and in the early postpartum period, can prevent up to 75% or more of maternal death. However, in many developing countries, very few mothers make at least one antenatal visit and even less receive delivery care from skilled professionals. The present study reports findings from a region where key challenges related to transportation and availability of obstetric services were addressed by an ongoing project, giving a unique opportunity to understand why women might continue to prefer home delivery even when facility based delivery is available at minimal cost. METHODS: The study took place in Ethiopia using a mixed study design employing a cross sectional household survey among 15-49 year old women combined with in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. RESULTS: Seventy one percent of mothers received antenatal care from a health professional (doctor, health officer, nurse, or midwife) for their most recent birth in the one year preceding the survey. Overall only 16% of deliveries were assisted by health professionals, while a significant majority (78%) was attended by traditional birth attendants. The most important reasons for not seeking institutional delivery were the belief that it is not necessary (42%) and not customary (36%), followed by high cost (22%) and distance or lack of transportation (8%). The group discussions and interviews identified several reasons for the preference of traditional birth attendants over health facilities. Traditional birth attendants were seen as culturally acceptable and competent health workers. Women reported poor quality of care and previous negative experiences with health facilities. In addition, women's low awareness on the advantages of skilled attendance at delivery, little role in making decisions (even when they want), and economic constraints during referral contribute to the low level of service utilization. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicated the crucial role of proper health care provider-client communication and providing a more client centered and culturally sensitive care if utilization of existing health facilities is to be maximized. Implications of findings for maternal health programs and further research are discussed.

Abstract Child stunting in Ethiopia has persisted at alarming rates, despite enormous amounts of food aid, often procured in response to shocks. Using nationally representative data, the study finds that while harvest failure leads to child growth faltering, food aid affected child growth positively and offset the negative effects of shocks in communities that received food aid. However, many communities that experienced shocks did not receive food aid. In sum, while food aid has helped reduce child malnutrition, inflexible food aid targeting, together with endemic poverty and limited maternal education, has left the prevalence of child stunting at alarming levels.

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation.

This study tries to assess the impact of telecommunications penetration on peoples' living standards in Africa through their impact on per capita income growth. This was motivated by the curiosity to find out if the telecommunications growth being experienced by African countries translates into economic growth through its impact on people's living standards. Barro's [1991] endogenous growth model is employed to estimate the impact of mobile, fixed telephone main lines and the use of the Internet on per capita income in a cross-country analysis covering 49 countries in Africa. The overall results indicate that the telephone main lines and mobile telephony have a significant impact on the people's living standards in Africa, while Internet usage does not have a significant contribution towards economic growth. However, when these countries are categorized into the three groups following the 2008 World Bank classification criteria of being upper-middle, upper-low and low-income countries, the results show that fixed telephony, mobile telephony and the Internet usage have a significant impact on growth in the upper-middle-income countries, while only the mobile telephone penetration has a significant impact on growth in both the upper-low-income and the low-income countries in Africa. The mobile growth effect is the largest among the country groups.

Trypanosoma brucei gambiense causes human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Between 1990 and 2015, almost 440000 cases were reported. Large-scale screening of populations at risk, drug donations, and efforts by national and international stakeholders have brought the epidemic under control with <2200 cases in 2016. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set the goals of gambiense-HAT elimination as a public health problem for 2020, and of interruption of transmission to humans for 2030. Latent human infections and possible animal reservoirs may challenge these goals. It remains largely unknown whether, and to what extend, they have an impact on gambiense-HAT transmission. We argue that a better understanding of the contribution of human and putative animal reservoirs to gambiense-HAT epidemiology is mandatory to inform elimination strategies.

BACKGROUND: Uganda's poor maternal health indicators have resulted from weak maternal health services delivery, including access to quality family planning, skilled birth attendance, emergency obstetric care, and postnatal care for mothers and newborns. This paper investigated the predictors of maternal health services (MHS) utilization characterized as: desirable, moderate and undesirable. METHODS: We used a sample of 1728 women of reproductive ages (15-49), who delivered a child a year prior to the 2011 UDHS survey. A multinomial logistic regression model was used to analyze the relative contribution of the various predictors of ideal maternal health services package utilization. Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization guided the selection of covariates in the regression model. RESULTS: Women with secondary and higher education were more likely to utilize the desirable maternal health care package (RRR = 4.5; 95% CI = 1.5-14.0), compared to those who had none (reference = undesirable MHS package). Women who lived in regions outside Kampala, Uganda's capital, were less likely to utilize the desirable package of maternal health services (Eastern--RRR = 0.2, CI = 0.1-0.5; Western--RRR = 0.3, CI = 0.1-0.8; Central--RRR = 0.3, CI = 0.1-0.8; Northern--RRR = 0.4, CI = 0.2-1.0). Women from the richest households were more likely to utilize the desirable maternal health services package (RRR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.0-3.7). Residence in rural areas, being Moslem and being married reduced a woman's chances of utilizing moderate maternal health care services. CONCLUSIONS: Utilization of maternal health services varied greatly by demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Women with a secondary and higher education, and those of higher income levels, were more likely to utilize the ideal maternal health services package. Therefore, there is need to formulate policies and design maternal health services programs that target the socially marginalized women.

Rinderpest is only the second infectious disease to have been globally eradicated. In the final stages of eradication, the virus was entrenched in pastoral areas of the Greater Horn of Africa, a region with weak governance, poor security, and little infrastructure that presented profound challenges to conventional control methods. Although the eradication process was a development activity rather than scientific research, its success owed much to several seminal research efforts in vaccine development and epidemiology and showed what scientific decision-making and management could accomplish with limited resources. The keys to success were the development of a thermostable vaccine and the application of participatory epidemiological techniques that allowed veterinary personnel to interact at a grassroots level with cattle herders to more effectively target control measures.

Reducing the incidence of low birth weight not only lowers infant mortality rates but also has multiple benefits over the life cycle. This study estimates the economic benefits of reducing the incidence of low birth weight in low-income countries, both through lower mortality rates and medical costs and through increased learning and productivity. The estimated economic benefits, under plausible assumptions, are fairly substantial, at about $510 per infant moved from a low-birth-weight status. The estimated gains are primarily from increases in labor productivity (partially through more education) and secondarily from avoiding costs due to infant illness and death. Thus there may be many interventions to reduce the incidence of low birth weight that are warranted purely on the grounds of saving resources or increasing productivity.

This paper develops a scenario-based model to identify and provide an array of electricity demand in Africa, and to derive them from the African power system of development. A system-based approach is performed by applying the scenario methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’. Four scenarios are investigated. The Business as Usual scenario (BAU) replicates the regional and national Master Plans. The renewable-promotion scenario increases the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix. The demand and supply side efficiency scenarios investigate the impact of energy efficiency measures on the power system. The results show an increase in electricity demand by 4% by 2040, supply shortages and high emissions of Greenhouse Gases. Contrary to expectations, the renewable energy scenario did not emerge as the best solution to a sustainable electrification of the region. The energy efficiency scenarios have allowed us to draw a sustainable pathway for electrification.

BACKGROUND: Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination 'as a public health problem' by 2020. The indicators to monitor progress towards the target are based on the number of reported cases, the related areas and populations exposed at various levels of risk, and the coverage of surveillance activities. Based on data provided by the National Sleeping Sickness Control Programmes (NSSCP), Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and research institutions-and assembled in the Atlas of HAT-the World Health Organization (WHO) provides here an update to 2016 for these indicators, as well as an analysis of the epidemiological situation. RESULTS: Trends for the two primary indicators of elimination are on track for the 2020 goal: 2,164 cases of HAT were reported in 2016 (as compared to the milestone of 4,000 cases), and for the period 2012-2016 280,000 km2 are estimated to be at moderate risk or higher (i.e. ≥ 1 case/10,000 people/year), as compared to the milestone of 230,000 km2. These figures correspond to reductions of 92% and 61% as compared to the respective baselines (i.e. 26,550 HAT cases in the year 2000, and 709,000 km2 exposed at various levels of risk for the period 2000-2004). Among the secondary indicators, an overall improvement in the coverage of at risk populations by surveillance activities was observed. Regarding passive surveillance, the number of fixed health facilities providing gambiense HAT diagnosis or treatment expanded, with 1,338 enumerated in endemic countries in 2017 (+52% as compared to the survey completed only sixteen months earlier). Concerning rhodesiense HAT, 124 health facilities currently provide diagnosis or treatment. The broadening of passive surveillance is occurring in a context of fairly stable intensity of active case finding, with between 1.8 million and 2.4 million people screened per year over the period 2012-2016. DISCUSSION: Elimination of HAT as a public health problem by 2020 seems within reach, as the epidemiological trends observed in previous years are confirmed in this latest 2016 monitoring update. However, looking beyond 2020, and in particular to the 2030 goal of elimination of transmission as zero cases for the gambiense form of the disease only, there is no room for complacency. Challenges still abound, including ensuring the effective integration of HAT control activities in the health system, sustaining the commitment of donors and HAT endemic countries, and clarifying the extent of the threat posed by cryptic reservoirs (e.g. human asymptomatic carriers and the possible animal reservoirs in gambiense HAT epidemiology). WHO provides through the network for HAT elimination the essential coordination of the wide range of stakeholders to ensure synergy of efforts.

Progressive control pathways (PCPs) are stepwise approaches for the reduction, elimination, and eradication of human and animal diseases. They provide systematic frameworks for planning and evaluating interventions. Here we outline a PCP for tsetse-transmitted animal trypanosomosis, the scourge of poor livestock keepers in tropical Africa. Initial PCP stages focus on the establishment of national coordination structures, engagement of stakeholders, development of technical capacities, data collection and management, and pilot field interventions. The intermediate stage aims at a sustainable and economically profitable reduction of disease burden, while higher stages target elimination. The mixed-record of success and failure in past efforts against African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) makes the development of this PCP a high priority.

The overarching aim of this study is to examine the relationship among foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth and financial sector development relying on annual panel data spanning 1980–2016 from 45 African countries. Results from the two-system generalized method of moments reveal an ambiguous effect of FDI on economic growth although, for most part, higher FDI is associated with higher growth. Thus, the precise effect of FDI on economic growth is conditioned on the model specification. Interestingly, we notice that financial sector dampens the positive effect of FDI on economic growth. This finding holds irrespective of the indicator of financial sector and economic growth although the dampening effect of domestic credit is higher relative to private credit.

Many governments have embraced the NPM as the framework or paradigm through which governments are modernized and the public sector re-engineered. Indeed, the NPM offers important lessons and analyses for public management throughout the world and African countries are no exception to the process of implementation of efforts aimed at achieving the outcomes embodied in the said NPM. This article explores the relationship between the basic context of the NPM, as applied in practice to public sector reform in Africa, and discusses the impact stemming therefrom.

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co-benefits with and trade-offs against different social and environmental goals have been difficult without comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined 40 different options, implemented through land management, value chains, or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We find that a relatively small number of interventions show positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs with no significant adverse trade-offs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, integrated water management, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization, and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, reduced post-harvest losses, improved energy use in food systems, and disaster risk management. Several interventions show potentially significant negative impacts on both SDGs and NCPs; these include bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of co-benefits and trade-offs of different policy approaches can help decision-makers choose the more effective, or at the very minimum, more benign interventions for implementation.

Unprecedented impacts of climate change and climate variability in the twenty-first century are likely to require transformational social, organizational and human responses. Yet, little existing empirical work examines how decision-makers can facilitate such responses. This paper suggests that in order to assess whether responses to climate risks and threats are transformational, it is necessary to move away from a focus only on outcomes and scale and towards the multiple dimensions of social responses and the processes through which transformational changes are realized. In so doing, the paper seeks to move the discussion on transformational change towards the processes and sustainability of adaptation interventions, and the changes they trigger. Drawing on the literature on transformational change in organizational theory and social–ecological systems, the paper first develops a framework with which to examine and assess development and adaptation interventions. The framework is then applied to eight interventions made between 2005 and 2011 in diverse socioecological settings across Africa. All interventions were underpinned by participatory action research methodologies. Our analysis shows how a focus on change agents, generalizability of field-scale adaptation mechanisms and pathways, and sustainability of outcomes, combined with attention to the scale and scope of change processes, provides information that can inform policy on the kinds of intervention that are likely to support long-term and sustainable responses to climate impacts. Although several of the cases mainly illustrate incremental adaptations, use of the analytical framework pointed towards the wider processes of systems change that might lead to transformative trajectories.

Abstract This study focuses on the evaluation of the NOAA–NCEP Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite-based rainfall product at fine space–time resolutions (1 h and 8 km). The evaluation was conducted during a 28-month period from 2004 to 2006 using a high-quality experimental rain gauge network in southern Louisiana, United States. The dense arrangement of rain gauges allowed for multiple gauges to be located within a single CMORPH pixel and provided a relatively reliable approximation of pixel-average surface rainfall. The results suggest that the CMORPH product has high detection skills: the probability of successful detection is ~80% for surface rain rates &amp;gt;2 mm h−1 and probability of false detection &amp;lt;3%. However, significant and alarming missed-rain and false-rain volumes of 21% and 22%, respectively, were reported. The CMORPH product has a negligible bias when assessed for the entire study period. On an event scale it has significant biases that exceed 100%. The fine-resolution CMORPH estimates have high levels of random errors; however, these errors get reduced rapidly when the estimates are aggregated in time or space. To provide insight into future improvements, the study examines the effect of temporal availability of passive microwave rainfall estimates on the product accuracy. The study also investigates the implications of using a radar-based rainfall product as an evaluation surface reference dataset instead of gauge observations. The findings reported in this study guide future enhancements of rainfall products and increase their informed usage in a variety of research and operational applications.