United States Department of the Navy

We develop a new method to constrain the star formation histories, dust attenuation and stellar masses of galaxies. It is based on two stellar absorption line indices, the 4000 break strength and the Balmer absorption line index H A . Together, these indices allow us to constrain the mean stellar ages of galaxies and the fractional stellar mass formed in bursts over the past few Gyr. A comparison with broad band photometry then yields estimates of dust attenuation and of stellar mass. We generate a large library of Monte Carlo realizations of different star formation histories, including starbursts of varying strength and a range of metallicities. We use this library to generate median likelihood estimates of burst mass fractions, dust attenuation strengths, stellar masses and stellar mass-to-light ratios for a sample of 122,808 galaxies drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The typical 95% confidence range in our estimated stellar masses is 40 %. We study how the stellar mass-to-light ratios of galaxies vary as a function of absolute magnitude, concentration index and photometric pass-band and how dust attenuation varies as a function of absolute magnitude and 4000 break strength. We also calculate how the total stellar mass of the present Universe is distributed over galaxies as a function of their mass, size, concentration, colour, burst mass fraction and surface mass density. We find that most of the stellar mass in the local Universe resides in galaxies that have, to within a factor of about 2, stellar masses 510 10 M , half-light radii 3 kpc, and half-light surface mass densities 10 9 M kpc -2 . The distribution of D n (4000) is strongly bimodal, showing a clear division between galaxies dominated by old stellar populations and galaxies with more recent star formation.

This chapter reviews the training research literature reported over the past decade. We describe the progress in five areas of research including training theory, training needs analysis, antecedent training conditions, training methods and strategies, and posttraining conditions. Our review suggests that advancements have been made that help us understand better the design and delivery of training in organizations, with respect to theory development as well as the quality and quantity of empirical research. We have new tools for analyzing requisite knowledge and skills, and for evaluating training. We know more about factors that influence training effectiveness and transfer of training. Finally, we challenge researchers to find better ways to translate the results of training research into practice.

The results of recent ambient-noise investigations, after appropriate processing, are compared on the basis of pressure spectra in the frequency band 1 cps to 20 kc. Several possible sources are discussed to determine the most probable origin of the observed noise. It is concluded that, in general, the ambient noise is a composite of at least three overlapping components: turbulent-pressure fluctuations effective in the band 1 cps to 100 cps; wind-dependent noise from bubbles and spray resulting, primarily, from surface agitation, 50 cps to 20 kc; and, in many areas, oceanic traffic, 10 cps to 1000 cps. Spectrum characteristics of each component and of the composite are shown. Additional sources, including those of intermittent and local effects, are also discussed. Guidelines for the estimation of noise levels are given.

Abstract This paper is a critical review of exponential smoothing since the original work by Brown and Holt in the 1950s. Exponential smoothing is based on a pragmatic approach to forecasting which is shared in this review. The aim is to develop state‐of‐the‐art guidelines for application of the exponential smoothing methodology. The first part of the paper discusses the class of relatively simple models which rely on the Holt‐Winters procedure for seasonal adjustment of the data. Next, we review general exponential smoothing (GES), which uses Fourier functions of time to model seasonality. The research is reviewed according to the following questions. What are the useful properties of these models? What parameters should be used? How should the models be initialized? After the review of model‐building, we turn to problems in the maintenance of forecasting systems based on exponential smoothing. Topics in the maintenance area include the use of quality control models to detect bias in the forecast errors, adaptive parameters to improve the response to structural changes in the time series, and two‐stage forecasting, whereby we use a model of the errors or some other model of the data to improve our initial forecasts. Some of the major conclusions: the parameter ranges and starting values typically used in practice are arbitrary and may detract from accuracy. The empirical evidence favours Holt's model for trends over that of Brown. A linear trend should be damped at long horizons. The empirical evidence favours the Holt‐Winters approach to seasonal data over GES. It is difficult to justify GES in standard form–the equivalent ARIMA model is simpler and more efficient. The cumulative sum of the errors appears to be the most practical forecast monitoring device. There is no evidence that adaptive parameters improve forecast accuracy. In fact, the reverse may be true.

Many cancers have been cured by chemotherapeutic agents. However, other cancers are intrinsically drug resistant, and some acquire resistance following chemotherapy. Cloning of the cDNA for the human MDR1 gene (also known as PGY1), which encodes the multidrug efflux protein P-glycoprotein, has made it possible to measure levels of MDR1 RNA in human cancers. We report the levels of MDR1 RNA in greater than 400 human cancers. MDR1 RNA levels were usually elevated in untreated, intrinsically drug-resistant tumors, including those derived from the colon, kidney, adrenal gland, liver, and pancreas, as well as in carcinoid tumors, chronic myelogenous leukemia in blast crisis, and cell lines of non-small cell carcinoma of the lung (NSCLC) with neuroendocrine properties. MDR1 RNA levels were occasionally elevated in other untreated cancers, including neuroblastoma, acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) in adults, acute nonlymphocytic leukemia (ANLL) in adults, and indolent non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. MDR1 RNA levels were also increased in some cancers at relapse after chemotherapy, including ALL, ANLL, breast cancer, neuroblastoma, pheochromocytoma, and nodular, poorly differentiated lymphoma. Many types of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tumors, including NSCLC and melanoma, contained undetectable or low levels of MDR1 RNA. The consistent association of MDR1 expression with several intrinsically resistant cancers and the increased expression of the MDR1 gene in certain cancers with acquired drug resistance indicate that the MDR1 gene contributes to multidrug resistance in many human cancers. Thus, evaluation of MDR1 gene expression may prove to be a valuable tool in the identification of individuals whose cancers are resistant to specific agents. The information may be useful in designing or altering chemotherapeutic protocols in these patients.

This paper describes the development and application of a technique for measuring and controlling development progress for the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile program, Special Projects Office, Bureau of Ordnance, U.S. Navy. Project PERT (Program Evaluation Research Task) was set up to develop, test, and implement a methodology for providing management with integrated and quantitative evaluation of (a) progress to date and the outlook for accomplishing the objectives of the FBM program, (b) validity of established plans and schedules for accomplishing the program objectives, and (c) effects of changes proposed in established plans. In the PERT model, the R and D program is characterized as a network of interrelated events to be achieved in proper ordered sequence. Basic data for the analysis consists of elapsed time estimates for activities which connect dependent events in the network. The time estimates are obtained from responsible technical persons and are subsequently expressed in probability terms. This model is described. Test of the model on a specific component, design of a management control system properly related to existing management systems, reduction to the NORC computer, difficulties in implementation and preliminary results to date are discussed. Limitations of the model, and possible refinements and use of the computer model for testing schedules and for management experimentation in resource and performance tradeoffs are described.

This paper presents the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF), a one million second exposure of an 11 square minute-of-arc region in the southern sky with the Hubble Space Telescope. The exposure time was divided among four filters, F435W (B435), F606W (V606), F775W (i775), and F850LP (z850), to give approximately uniform limiting magnitudes mAB~29 for point sources. The image contains at least 10,000 objects presented here as a catalog. Few if any galaxies at redshifts greater than ~4 resemble present day spiral or elliptical galaxies. Using the Lyman break dropout method, we find 504 B-dropouts, 204 V-dropouts, and 54 i-dropouts. Using these samples that are at different redshifts but derived from the same data, we find no evidence for a change in the characteristic luminosity of galaxies but some evidence for a decrease in their number densities between redshifts of 4 and 7. The ultraviolet luminosity density of these samples is dominated by galaxies fainter than the characteristic luminosity, and the HUDF reveals considerably more luminosity than shallower surveys. The apparent ultraviolet luminosity density of galaxies appears to decrease from redshifts of a few to redshifts greater than 6. The highest redshift samples show that star formation was already vigorous at the earliest epochs that galaxies have been observed, less than one billion years after the Big Bang.

This article reviews the literature that compares the instructional effectiveness of games to conventional classroom instruction. Studies dealing with empirical research rather than teachers'judgments are reviewed. Published reviews of research in English dating from 1963 to 1984 were examined and the literature was searched for studies from 1984 to 1991. Of the 67 studies considered over a period of 28 years, 38 show no difference between games and conventional instruction; 22 favor games; 5 favor games, but their controls are questionable; and 3 favor conventional instruction. Results for social sciences, math, language arts, logic physics, biology, retention over time, and interest are examined. Math is the subject area with the greatest percentage of results favoring games, but only eight studies have adequate controls. Thirty-three out of 46 social science games/simulations show no difference between games/simulations and classroom instruction. The authors conclude that subject matter areas where very specific content can be targeted are more likely to show beneficial effects for gaming.

"Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences." Journal of Quality Technology, 4(2), pp. 119–120

Subtle changes in ligand substitution result in substantial changes in molecular structure and magnetic properties in a series of dysprosium(<sc>iii</sc>) metallocenium salts.

This paper proposes a novel scheme that uses robust principal component classifier in intrusion detection problem where the training data may be unsupervised. Assuming that anomalies can be treated as outliers, an intrusion predictive model is constructed from the major and minor principal components of normal instances. A measure of the difference of an anomaly from the normal instance is the distance in the principal component space. The distance based on the major components that account for 50 % of the total variation and the minor components with eigenvalues less than 0.20 is shown to work well. The experiments with KDD Cup 1999 data demonstrate that our proposed method achieves 98.94 % in recall and 97.89 % in precision with the false alarm rate 0.92 % and outperforms the nearest neighbor method, density-based local outliers (LOF) approach, and the outlier detection algorithms based on Canberra metric.

During the past five to ten years, a broad partnership of institutions under NOPP sponsorship has collaborated in developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global- and basin-scale ocean prediction systems using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The partnership represents a broad spectrum of the oceanographic community, bringing together academia, federal agencies, and industry/commercial entities, and spanning modeling, data assimilation, data management and serving, observational capabilities, and application of HYCOM prediction system outputs. In addition to providing real-time, eddy-resolving global- and basin-scale ocean prediction systems for the US Navy and NOAA, this project also offered an outstanding opportunity for NOAA-Navy collaboration and cooperation, ranging from research to the operational level. This paper provides an overview of the global HYCOM ocean prediction system and highlights some of its achievements. An important outcome of this effort is the capability of the global system to provide boundary conditions to even higher-resolution regional and coastal models.

The p53 gene has been implicated as a tumor suppressor gene with mutations found in common human cancers. We examined 51 early stage, primary, resected non-small cell lung cancer specimens using an RNAase protection assay and cDNA sequencing. Mutations changing the p53 coding sequence were found in 23/51 (45%) tumor specimens, but not in the corresponding normal lung, were distributed between codons 132 to 283, and included tumors with and without 17p allele loss. Fifteen of the 23 mutations lay in the predicted binding regions for SV40 large T antigen, and 14 were located in regions highly conserved between species. G to T transversions were a common result of p53 mutations in lung cancer compared to other cancers suggesting exposure to different mutagens. In univariate and multivariate analysis the presence of p53 mutations was associated with younger age and squamous histology. However, the presence of p53 mutations was not significantly associated with tumor stage, nodal status or sex and was found in all histologic types of lung cancer. We conclude that somatic mutations in the p53 gene play an important role in the pathogenesis of early stage non-small cell lung cancer.

We discuss the optical and radio properties of ~30,000 FIRST (radio, 20 cm, sensitive to 1 mJy) sources positionally associated within 1farcs5 with a Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) (optical, sensitive to r* ~ 22.2) source in 1230 deg2 of sky. The matched sample represents ~30% of the 108,000 FIRST sources and 0.1% of the 2.5 × 107 SDSS sources in the studied region. SDSS spectra are available for 4300 galaxies and 1154 quasars from the matched sample and for a control sample of 140,000 galaxies and 20,000 quasars in 1030 deg2 of sky. Here we analyze only core sources, which dominate the sample; the fraction of SDSS-FIRST sources with complex radio morphology is determined to be less than 10%. This large and unbiased catalog of optical identifications provides much firmer statistical footing for existing results and allows several new findings. The majority (83%) of the FIRST sources identified with an SDSS source brighter than r* = 21 are optically resolved; the fraction of resolved objects among the matched sources is a function of the radio flux, increasing from ~50% at the bright end to ~90% at the FIRST faint limit. Nearly all optically unresolved radio sources have nonstellar colors indicative of quasars. We estimate an upper limit of ~5% for the fraction of quasars with broadband optical colors indistinguishable from those of stars. The distribution of quasars in the radio flux–optical flux plane suggests the existence of the "quasar radio dichotomy"; 8% ± 1% of all quasars with i* &lt; 18.5 are radio-loud, and this fraction seems independent of redshift and optical luminosity. The radio-loud quasars have a redder median color by 0.08 ± 0.02 mag, and show a 3 times larger fraction of objects with extremely red colors. FIRST galaxies represent 5% of all SDSS galaxies with r* &lt; 17.5, and 1% for r* &lt; 20, and are dominated by red (u*-r* &gt; 2.22) galaxies, especially those with r* &gt; 17.5. Magnitude- and redshift-limited samples show that radio galaxies have a different optical luminosity distribution than nonradio galaxies selected by the same criteria; when galaxies are further separated by their colors, this result remains valid for both blue and red galaxies. For a given optical luminosity and redshift, the observed optical colors of radio galaxies are indistinguishable from those of all SDSS galaxies selected by identical criteria. The distributions of radio-to-optical flux ratio are similar for blue and red galaxies in redshift-limited samples; this similarity implies that the difference in their luminosity functions and resulting selection effects are the dominant cause for the preponderance of red radio galaxies in flux-limited samples. The fraction of radio galaxies whose emission-line ratios indicate an AGN (30%), rather than starburst, origin is 6 times larger than the corresponding fraction for all SDSS galaxies (r* &lt; 17.5). We confirm that the AGN-to-starburst galaxy number ratio increases with radio flux and find that radio emission from AGNs is more concentrated than radio emission from starburst galaxies.

Abstract Goal‐directed cognition is often discussed in terms of specialized memory structures like the “goal stack.” The goal‐activation model presented here analyzes goal‐directed cognition in terms of the general memory constructs of activation and associative priming. The model embodies three predictive constraints: (1) the interference level, which arises from residual memory for old goals; (1) the strengthening constraint, which makes predictions about time to encode a new goal; and (3) the priming constraint, which makes predictions about the role of cues in retrieving pending goals. These constraints are formulated algebraically and tested through simulation of latency and error data from the Tower of Hanoi, a means‐ends puzzle that depends heavily on suspension and resumption of goals. Implications of the model for understanding intention superiority, postcompletion error, and effects of task interruption are discussed.

Although several variables have been correlated with nursing job satisfaction, the findings are not uniform across studies. Three commonly noted variables from the nursing literature are: autonomy, job stress, and nurse-physician collaboration. This meta-analysis examined the strength of the relationships between job satisfaction and autonomy, job stress, and nurse-physician collaboration among registered nurses working in staff positions. A meta-analysis of 31 studies representing a total of 14,567 subjects was performed. Job satisfaction was most strongly correlated with job stress (ES = -.43), followed by nurse-physician collaboration (ES = .37), and autonomy (ES = .30). These findings have implications for the importance of improving the work environment to increase nurses' job satisfaction.

BACKGROUND: The authors had previously conducted an investigation of minor salivary gland mucoepidermoid carcinoma, in which they demonstrated that certain clinical and histopathologic features were useful in predicting biologic outcome. The current study investigated the usefulness of these features in determining the prognoses of patients with mucoepidermoid carcinomas of the major salivary glands. METHODS: Clinical data and 15 histopathologic features were compared in 4 patient groups based on outcome after initial treatment. The outcome groups were 1) survival without disease, 2) survival with tumor recurrence only, 3) survival with metastasis, and 4) death related to tumor. A numeric score was assigned to each unfavorable histopathologic feature. Low grade tumors had scores of 0-4. Intermediate grade tumors scored 5 or 6. High grade tumors had scores higher than 6. RESULTS: Most patients (75%) were tumor free after the initial treatment. Twenty-one patients (9%) had local recurrence only, 12 (5%) demonstrated metastasis and survived, and 25 patients (11%) died of their disease. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical features associated with metastasis or death were more advanced age, tumor size, and preoperative symptoms. Histopathologic features that correlated with poor outcome were cystic component less than 20%, 4 or more mitotic figures per 10 high-power fields, neural involvement, necrosis, and anaplasia. All five of these histopathologic features demonstrated statistical prognostic significance when parotid gland tumors from Groups 1 and 4 were compared (P < 0.001). The point-based grading system demonstrated a statistically significant correlation with outcome for parotid tumors but not for submandibular tumors. The authors' findings indicate that patients with tumors of equal histopathologic grade have a better prognosis when their tumors are in the parotid gland than when their tumors are in the submandibular gland. Six of eight submandibular tumors that metastasized or resulted in death were low grade lesions, and none were high grade.

We present 0.6-2.5 mum, Rgreater than or similar to400 spectra of 27 cool, low-luminosity stars and substellar objects. Based on these and previously published spectra, we develop a preliminary spectral classification system for L and T dwarfs. For late L and T types the classification system is based entirely on four spectral indices in the 1-2.5 mum interval. Two of these indices are derived from water absorption bands at 1.15 and 1.4 km, the latter of which shows a smooth increase in depth through the L and T sequences and can be used to classify both spectral types. The other two indices make use of methane absorption features in the H and K bands, with the K-band index also applicable to mid-to-late L dwarfs. Continuum indices shortward of 1 mum used by previous authors to classify L dwarfs are found to be useful only through mid-L subclasses. We employ the 1.5 mum water index and the 2.2 mum methane index to complete the L classification through L9.5 and to link the new system with a modified version of the 2MASS "color-d" index. By correlating the depths of the methane and water absorption features, we establish a T spectral sequence from T0 to T8, based on all four indices, that is a smooth continuation of the L sequence. We reclassify two 2MASS L8 dwarfs as L9 and L9.5 and identify one SDSS object as L9. In the proposed system methane absorption appears in the K band approximately at L8, two subclasses earlier than its appearance in the H band. The L and T spectral classes are distinguished by the absence and presence, respectively, of H-band methane absorption.

Ensemble forecasting is increasingly accepted as a powerful tool to improve early warnings for high-impact weather. Recently, ensembles combining forecasts from different systems have attracted a considerable level of interest. The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Globa l Ensemble (TIGGE) project, a prominent contribution to THORPEX, has been initiated to enable advanced research and demonstration of the multimodel ensemble concept and to pave the way toward operational implementation of such a system at the international level. The objectives of TIGGE are 1) to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research, and 2) to facilitate exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1–2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near–real time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at the China Meteorological Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The volume of data accumulated daily is 245 GB (1.6 million global fields). This is offered to the scientific community as a new resource for research and education. The TIGGE data policy is to make each forecast accessible via the Internet 48 h after it was initially issued by each originating center. Quicker access can also be granted for field experiments or projects of particular interest to the World Weather Research Programme and THORPEX. A few examples of initial results based on TIGGE data are discussed in this paper, and the case is made for additional research in several directions.

Broad personality traits may be important predictors of health behavior patterns. Two studies are reported which examined the associations between five major personality dimensions and four major health behavior dimensions. Prior associations between health behaviors and neurotic and extraverted personality tendencies generally were replicated. However, Conscientiousness and Agreeableness, two domains of personality that have received little research attention, emerged as important personality predictors of health behaviors. The results indicate that personality is a reliable predictor of health behavior patterns. It is suggested that the importance of personality has been underestimated in past research by the failure to consider appropriate health behavior criteria and the omission of important personality dimensions, such as Conscientiousness and Agreeableness, when studying health behavior patterns.