United States Fish and Wildlife Service

Nondetection of a species at a site does not imply that the species is absent unless the probability of detection is 1. We propose a model and likelihood-based method for estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are <1. The model provides a flexible framework enabling covariate information to be included and allowing for missing observations. Via computer simulation, we found that the model provides good estimates of the occupancy rates, generally unbiased for moderate detection probabilities (>0.3). We estimated site occupancy rates for two anuran species at 32 wetland sites in Maryland, USA, from data collected during 2000 as part of an amphibian monitoring program, Frogwatch USA. Site occupancy rates were estimated as 0.49 for American toads (Bufo americanus), a 44% increase over the proportion of sites at which they were actually observed, and as 0.85 for spring peepers (Pseudacris crucifer), slightly above the observed proportion of 0.83.

Kelp forests are phyletically diverse, structurally complex and highly productive components of coldwater rocky marine coastlines. This paper reviews the conditions in which kelp forests develop globally and where, why and at what rate they become deforested. The ecology and long archaeological history of kelp forests are examined through case studies from southern California, the Aleutian Islands and the western North Atlantic, well-studied locations that represent the widest possible range in kelp forest biodiversity. Global distribution of kelp forests is physiologically constrained by light at high latitudes and by nutrients, warm temperatures and other macrophytes at low latitudes. Within mid-latitude belts (roughly 40–60° latitude in both hemispheres) well-developed kelp forests are most threatened by herbivory, usually from sea urchins. Overfishing and extirpation of highly valued vertebrate apex predators often triggered herbivore population increases, leading to widespread kelp deforestation. Such deforestations have the most profound and lasting impacts on species-depauperate systems, such as those in Alaska and the western North Atlantic. Globally urchin-induced deforestation has been increasing over the past 2–3 decades. Continued fishing down of coastal food webs has resulted in shifting harvesting targets from apex predators to their invertebrate prey, including kelp-grazing herbivores. The recent global expansion of sea urchin harvesting has led to the widespread extirpation of this herbivore, and kelp forests have returned in some locations but, for the first time, these forests are devoid of vertebrate apex predators. In the western North Atlantic, large predatory crabs have recently filled this void and they have become the new apex predator in this system. Similar shifts from fish- to crab-dominance may have occurred in coastal zones of the United Kingdom and Japan, where large predatory finfish were extirpated long ago. Three North American case studies of kelp forests were examined to determine their long history with humans and project the status of future kelp forests to the year 2025. Fishing impacts on kelp forest systems have been both profound and much longer in duration than previously thought. Archaeological data suggest that coastal peoples exploited kelp forest organisms for thousands of years, occasionally resulting in localized losses of apex predators, outbreaks of sea urchin populations and probably small-scale deforestation. Over the past two centuries, commercial exploitation for export led to the extirpation of sea urchin predators, such as the sea otter in the North Pacific and predatory fishes like the cod in the North Atlantic. The large-scale removal of predators for export markets increased sea urchin abundances and promoted the decline of kelp forests over vast areas. Despite southern California having one of the longest known associations with coastal kelp forests, widespread deforestation is rare. It is possible that functional redundancies among predators and herbivores make this most diverse system most stable. Such biodiverse kelp forests may also resist invasion from non-native species. In the species-depauperate western North Atlantic, introduced algal competitors carpet the benthos and threaten future kelp dominance. There, other non-native herbivores and predators have become established and dominant components of this system. Climate changes have had measurable impacts on kelp forest ecosystems and efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gasses should be a global priority. However, overfishing appears to be the greatest manageable threat to kelp forest ecosystems over the 2025 time horizon. Management should focus on minimizing fishing impacts and restoring populations of functionally important species in these systems.

Surveys of recent (1973 to 1986) intentional releases of native birds and mammals to the wild in Australia, Canada, Hawaii, New Zealand, and the United States were conducted to document current activities, identify factors associated with success, and suggest guidelines for enhancing future work. Nearly 700 translocations were conducted each year. Native game species constituted 90 percent of translocations and were more successful (86 percent) than were translocations of threatened, endangered, or sensitive species (46 percent). Knowledge of habitat quality, location of release area within the species range, number of animals released, program length, and reproductive traits allowed correct classification of 81 percent of observed translocations as successful or not.

Summary 1. The flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of aquatic and riparian ecosystems for streams and rivers. Hydrologic alteration has impaired riverine ecosystems on a global scale, and the pace and intensity of human development greatly exceeds the ability of scientists to assess the effects on a river‐by‐river basis. Current scientific understanding of hydrologic controls on riverine ecosystems and experience gained from individual river studies support development of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. 2. This paper presents a consensus view from a group of international scientists on a new framework for assessing environmental flow needs for many streams and rivers simultaneously to foster development and implementation of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. This framework, the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA), is a synthesis of a number of existing hydrologic techniques and environmental flow methods that are currently being used to various degrees and that can support comprehensive regional flow management. The flexible approach allows scientists, water‐resource managers and stakeholders to analyse and synthesise available scientific information into ecologically based and socially acceptable goals and standards for management of environmental flows. 3. The ELOHA framework includes the synthesis of existing hydrologic and ecological databases from many rivers within a user‐defined region to develop scientifically defensible and empirically testable relationships between flow alteration and ecological responses. These relationships serve as the basis for the societally driven process of developing regional flow standards. This is to be achieved by first using hydrologic modelling to build a ‘hydrologic foundation’ of baseline and current hydrographs for stream and river segments throughout the region. Second, using a set of ecologically relevant flow variables, river segments within the region are classified into a few distinctive flow regime types that are expected to have different ecological characteristics. These river types can be further subclassified according to important geomorphic features that define hydraulic habitat features. Third, the deviation of current‐condition flows from baseline‐condition flow is determined. Fourth, flow alteration–ecological response relationships are developed for each river type, based on a combination of existing hydroecological literature, expert knowledge and field studies across gradients of hydrologic alteration. 4. Scientific uncertainty will exist in the flow alteration–ecological response relationships, in part because of the confounding of hydrologic alteration with other important environmental determinants of river ecosystem condition (e.g. temperature). Application of the ELOHA framework should therefore occur in a consensus context where stakeholders and decision‐makers explicitly evaluate acceptable risk as a balance between the perceived value of the ecological goals, the economic costs involved and the scientific uncertainties in functional relationships between ecological responses and flow alteration. 5. The ELOHA framework also should proceed in an adaptive management context, where collection of monitoring data or targeted field sampling data allows for testing of the proposed flow alteration–ecological response relationships. This empirical validation process allows for a fine‐tuning of environmental flow management targets. The ELOHA framework can be used both to guide basic research in hydroecology and to further implementation of more comprehensive environmental flow management of freshwater sustainability on a global scale.

The ecosystem response to the 1989 spill of oil from the Exxon Valdez into Prince William Sound, Alaska, shows that current practices for assessing ecological risks of oil in the oceans and, by extension, other toxic sources should be changed. Previously, it was assumed that impacts to populations derive almost exclusively from acute mortality. However, in the Alaskan coastal ecosystem, unexpected persistence of toxic subsurface oil and chronic exposures, even at sublethal levels, have continued to affect wildlife. Delayed population reductions and cascades of indirect effects postponed recovery. Development of ecosystem-based toxicology is required to understand and ultimately predict chronic, delayed, and indirect long-term risks and impacts.

Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, I describe a class of models (N-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, N, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for N. Carroll and Lombard (1985, Journal of American Statistical Association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on N that is exploited by the N-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the N-mixture estimator compared to the Caroll and Lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

Tire tread particles turn streams toxic For coho salmon in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, returning to spawn in urban and suburban streams can be deadly. Regular acute mortality events are tied, in particular, to stormwater runoff, but the identity of the causative toxicant(s) has not been known. Starting from leachate from new and aged tire tread wear particles, Tian et al. followed toxic fractions through chromatography steps, eventually isolating a single molecule that could induce acute toxicity at threshold concentrations of ∼1 microgram per liter. The compound, called 6PPD-quinone, is an oxidation product of an additive intended to prevent damage to tire rubber from ozone. Measurements from road runoff and immediate receiving waters show concentrations of 6PPD-quinone high enough to account for the acute toxicity events. Science , this issue p. 185

We describe an approach for estimating occupancy rate or the proportion of area occupied when heterogeneity in detection probability exists as a result of variation in abundance of the organism under study. The key feature of such problems, which we exploit, is that variation in abundance induces variation in detection probability. Thus, heterogeneity in abundance can be modeled as heterogeneity in detection probability. Moreover, this linkage between heterogeneity in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability allows one to exploit a heterogeneous detection probability model to estimate the underlying distribution of abundances. Therefore, our method allows estimation of abundance from repeated observations of the presence or absence of animals without having to uniquely mark individuals in the population. Corresponding Editor: A. M. Ellison

Abstract. Question: What are the major vegetation units in the Arctic, what is their composition, and how are they distributed among major bioclimate subzones and countries? Location: The Arctic tundra region, north of the tree line. Methods: A photo‐interpretive approach was used to delineate the vegetation onto an Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) base image. Mapping experts within nine Arctic regions prepared draft maps using geographic information technology (ArcInfo) of their portion of the Arctic, and these were later synthesized to make the final map. Area analysis of the map was done according to bioclimate subzones, and country. The integrated mapping procedures resulted in other maps of vegetation, topography, soils, landscapes, lake cover, substrate pH, and above‐ground biomass. Results: The final map was published at 1:7 500 000 scale map. Within the Arctic (total area = 7.11 × 106 km 2 ), about 5.05 × 10 6 km 2 is vegetated. The remainder is ice covered. The map legend generally portrays the zonal vegetation within each map polygon. About 26% of the vegetated area is erect shrublands, 18% peaty graminoid tundras, 13% mountain complexes, 12% barrens, 11% mineral graminoid tundras, 11% prostrate‐shrub tundras, and 7% wetlands. Canada has by far the most terrain in the High Arctic mostly associated with abundant barren types and prostrate dwarf‐shrub tundra, whereas Russia has the largest area in the Low Arctic, predominantly low‐shrub tundra. Conclusions: The CAVM is the first vegetation map of an entire global biome at a comparable resolution. The consistent treatment of the vegetation across the circumpolar Arctic, abundant ancillary material, and digital database should promote the application to numerous land‐use, and climate‐change applications and will make updating the map relatively easy.

White-nose syndrome (WNS) is a condition associated with an unprecedented bat mortality event in the northeastern United States. Since the winter of 2006*2007, bat declines exceeding 75% have been observed at surveyed hibernacula. Affected bats often present with visually striking white fungal growth on their muzzles, ears, and/or wing membranes. Direct microscopy and culture analyses demonstrated that the skin of WNS-affected bats is colonized by a psychrophilic fungus that is phylogenetically related to Geomyces spp. but with a conidial morphology distinct from characterized members of this genus. This report characterizes the cutaneous fungal infection associated with WNS.

The American Fisheries Society (AFS) herein provides a list of all native freshwater mussels (families Margaritiferidae and Unionidae) in the United States and Canada. This report also provides state and provincial distributions; a comprehensive review of the conservation status of all taxa; and references on biology, conservation, and distribution of freshwater mussels. The list includes 297 native freshwater mussels, of which 213 taxa (71.7%) are considered endangered, threatened, or of special concern. Twenty-one taxa (7.1%) are listed as endangered but possibly extinct, 77 (20.6%) as endangered but extant, 43 (14.5%) as threatened, 72 (24.2%) as of special concern, 14 (4.7%) as undetermined, and only 70 (23.6%) as currently stable. The primary reasons for the decline of freshwater mussels are habitat destruction from dams, channel modification, siltation, and the introduction of nonindigenous mollusks. The high numbers of imperiled freshwater mussels in the United States and Canada, which harbor the most diverse fauna in the world, portend a trajectory toward an extinction crisis that, if unchecked, will severely impoverish one of our richest components of aquatic biodiversity.

Effective conservation requires rigorous baselines of pristine conditions to assess the impacts of human activities and to evaluate the efficacy of management. Most coral reefs are moderately to severely degraded by local human activities such as fishing and pollution as well as global change, hence it is difficult to separate local from global effects. To this end, we surveyed coral reefs on uninhabited atolls in the northern Line Islands to provide a baseline of reef community structure, and on increasingly populated atolls to document changes associated with human activities. We found that top predators and reef-building organisms dominated unpopulated Kingman and Palmyra, while small planktivorous fishes and fleshy algae dominated the populated atolls of Tabuaeran and Kiritimati. Sharks and other top predators overwhelmed the fish assemblages on Kingman and Palmyra so that the biomass pyramid was inverted (top-heavy). In contrast, the biomass pyramid at Tabuaeran and Kiritimati exhibited the typical bottom-heavy pattern. Reefs without people exhibited less coral disease and greater coral recruitment relative to more inhabited reefs. Thus, protection from overfishing and pollution appears to increase the resilience of reef ecosystems to the effects of global warming.

Wildlife biologists historically considered the edge between adjacent habitat types highly productive and beneficial to wildlife. A current dogma is that edges adversely affect a wide range of avian species by increasing depredation and parasitism rates of nests. I critically evaluated existing empirical evidence to test whether there was a gradation in nest success as a function of distance from an edge. Researchers investigating this question have been inconsistent in their experimental designs, making generalizations about edge‐effect patterns difficult. The majority of studies I examined found nest success varied near edges, with both depredation rates (10 of 14 artificial nest studies, and 4 of 7 natural nest studies) and parasitism rates (3 of 5 studies) increasing near edges. In addition, there was apositive relationship between nest success and patch size (8 of 8 studies). The most conclusive studies suggest that edge effects usually occur within 50 m of an edge, whereas studies proposing that increased depredation rates extend farther than 50 m from an edge are less convincing. Prior research has probably focused on distances too far from an edge to detect threshold values, and future research should emphasize smaller scales. 100–200 m from an edge at 20–25 m increments. Researchers often use relatively arbitrary habitat characteristics to define an edge. Therefore, I propose that only openings in the forest canopy with a diameter three times or more the height of the adjacent trees should be included in edge analyses. This review suggests that fragmentation of eastern North American temperate forests could lead to increased nest predation and parasitism, and there is need to determine if similar processes occur in other forested regions of North America.

Abstract Wildlife may be exposed to mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) from a variety of environmental sources, including mine tailings, industrial effluent, agricultural drainwater, impoundments, and atmospheric deposition from electric power generation. Terrestrial and aquatic wildlife may be at risk from exposure to waterborne Hg and MeHg. The transformation of inorganic Hg by anaerobic sediment microorganisms in the water column produces MeHg, which bioaccumulates at successive trophic levels in the food chain. If high trophic level feeders, such as piscivorous birds and mammals, ingest sufficient MeHg in prey and drinking water, Hg toxicoses, including damage to nervous, excretory and reproductive systems, result. Currently accepted no observed adverse effect levels (NOAELs) for waterborne Hg in wildlife have been developed from the piscivorous model in which most dietary Hg is in the methyl form. Such model are not applicable to omnivores, insectivores, and other potentially affected groups, and have not incorpotated data from other important matrices, such as eggs and muscle. The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive review of the Hg literature as it relates to effects on wildlife, including previously understudied groups. We present a critique of the current state of knowledge about effects of Hg on wildlife as an aid to identifying missing information and to planning research needed for conducting a complete assessment of Hg risks to wildlife. This review summarizes the toxicity of Hg to birds and mammals, the mechanisms of Hg toxicity, the measurement of Hg in biota, and interpretation of residue data.

Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we determined that most neotropical migrant bird species that breed in forests of the eastern United States and Canada have recently (1978-1987) declined in abundance after a period of stable or increasing populations. Most permanent residents and temperate-zone migrants did not show a general pattern of decrease during this period. Field data from Mexico were used to classify a subset of the neotropical migrants as using forest or scrub habitats during winter. Population declines during 1978-1987 were significantly greater among the forest-wintering species, while populations of scrub-wintering species increased. The same subset of neotropical migrants also showed overall declines in forest-breeding species, but no significant differences existed between species breeding in forest and scrub habitats. Neotropical migrant species that primarily use forested habitats in either wintering or breeding areas are declining, but a statistically significant association between habitat and population declines was detected only in the tropics.

Journal Article Estimation of the size of a closed population when capture probabilities vary among animals Get access K. P. BURNHAM, K. P. BURNHAM 1U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Fort CollinsColorado Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar W. S. OVERTON W. S. OVERTON 2Department of Statistics, Oregon State UniversityCorvallis Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Biometrika, Volume 65, Issue 3, December 1978, Pages 625–633, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/65.3.625 Published: 01 December 1978 Article history Received: 01 December 1977 Revision received: 01 June 1978 Published: 01 December 1978

Statistical inference for capture–recapture studies of open animal populations typically relies on the assumption that all emigration from the studied population is permanent. However, there are many instances in which this assumption is unlikely to be met. We define two general models for the process of temporary emigration: completely random and Markovian. We then consider effects of these two types of temporary emigration on Jolly–Seber estimators and on estimators arising from the full-likelihood approach to robust design data. Capture–recapture data arising from Pollock’s robust design provide the basis for obtaining unbiased estimates of demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating the probability of temporary emigration. We present a likelihood-based approach to dealing with temporary emigration that permits estimation under different models of temporary emigration and yields tests for completely random and Markovian emigration. In addition, we use the relationship between capture probability estimates based on closed and open models under completely random temporary emigration to derive three ad hoc estimators for the probability of temporary emigration. Two of these should be especially useful in situations where capture probabilities are heterogeneous among individual animals. Ad hoc and full-likelihood estimators are illustrated for small-mammal capture–recapture data sets. We believe that these models and estimators will be useful for testing hypotheses about the process of temporary emigration, for estimating demographic parameters in the presence of temporary emigration, and for estimating probabilities of temporary emigration. These latter estimates are frequently of ecological interest as indicators of animal movement and, in some sampling situations, as direct estimates of breeding probabilities and proportions.

Kelps are highly productive seaweeds found along most temperate latitude coastlines, but the fate and importance of kelp production to nearshore ecosystems are largely unknown. The trophic role of kelp-derived carbon in a wide range of marine organisms was assessed by a natural experiment. Growth rates of benthic suspension feeders were greatly increased in the presence of organic detritus (particulate and dissolved) originating from large benthic seaweeds (kelps). Stable carbon isotope analysis confirmed that kelp-derived carbon is found throughout the nearshore food web.

Fishing for recreation is a popular activity in many parts of the world and this activity has led to the development of a sector of substantial social and economic value worldwide. The maintenance of this sector depends on the ability of aquatic ecosystems to provide fishery harvest. We are currently witnessing the collapse of many commercial marine fisheries due to over-exploitation. Recreational fisheries are typically viewed as different from commercial fisheries in that they are self-sustaining and not controlled by the social and economic forces of the open market that have driven many commercial fisheries to collapse. Here we reject the view that recreational and commercial fisheries are inherently different and demonstrate several mechanisms that can lead to the collapse of recreational fisheries. Data from four high profile Canadian recreational fisheries show dramatic declines over the last several decades yet these declines have gone largely unnoticed by fishery scientists, managers, and the public. Empirical evidence demonstrates that the predatory behavior of anglers reduces angling quality to levels proportional to distance from population centers. In addition, the behavior of many fish species and the anglers who pursue them, the common management responses to depleted populations, and the ecological responses of disrupted food webs all lead to potential instability in this predator-prey interaction. To prevent widespread collapse of recreational fisheries, fishery scientists and managers must recognize the impact of these processes of collapse and incorporate them into strategies and models of sustainable harvest.

The rediscovery of remnant Florida panthers (Puma concolor coryi) in southern Florida swamplands prompted a program to protect and stabilize the population. In 1995, conservation managers translocated eight female pumas (P. c. stanleyana) from Texas to increase depleted genetic diversity, improve population numbers, and reverse indications of inbreeding depression. We have assessed the demographic, population-genetic, and biomedical consequences of this restoration experiment and show that panther numbers increased threefold, genetic heterozygosity doubled, survival and fitness measures improved, and inbreeding correlates declined significantly. Although these results are encouraging, continued habitat loss, persistent inbreeding, infectious agents, and possible habitat saturation pose new dilemmas. This intensive management program illustrates the challenges of maintaining populations of large predators worldwide.