University of Missouri

Prediction of species’ distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence‐only data to fit models, and independent presence‐absence data to evaluate the predictions. Along with well‐established modelling methods such as generalised additive models and GARP and BIOCLIM, we explored methods that either have been developed recently or have rarely been applied to modelling species’ distributions. These include machine‐learning methods and community models, both of which have features that may make them particularly well suited to noisy or sparse information, as is typical of species’ occurrence data. Presence‐only data were effective for modelling species’ distributions for many species and regions. The novel methods consistently outperformed more established methods. The results of our analysis are promising for the use of data from museums and herbaria, especially as methods suited to the noise inherent in such data improve.

Hypertension is the most common condition seen in primary care and leads to myocardial infarction, stroke, renal failure, and death if not detected early and treated appropriately. Patients want to be assured that blood pressure (BP) treatment will reduce their disease burden, while clinicians want guidance on hypertension management using the best scientific evidence. This report takes a rigorous, evidence-based approach to recommend treatment thresholds, goals, and medications in the management of hypertension in adults. Evidence was drawn from randomized controlled trials, which represent the gold standard for determining efficacy and effectiveness. Evidence quality and recommendations were graded based on their effect on important outcomes. There is strong evidence to support treating hypertensive persons aged 60 years or older to a BP goal of less than 150/90 mm Hg and hypertensive persons 30 through 59 years of age to a diastolic goal of less than 90 mm Hg; however, there is insufficient evidence in hypertensive persons younger than 60 years for a systolic goal, or in those younger than 30 years for a diastolic goal, so the panel recommends a BP of less than 140/90 mm Hg for those groups based on expert opinion. The same thresholds and goals are recommended for hypertensive adults with diabetes or nondiabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD) as for the general hypertensive population younger than 60 years. There is moderate evidence to support initiating drug treatment with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, angiotensin receptor blocker, calcium channel blocker, or thiazide-type diuretic in the nonblack hypertensive population, including those with diabetes. In the black hypertensive population, including those with diabetes, a calcium channel blocker or thiazide-type diuretic is recommended as initial therapy. There is moderate evidence to support initial or add-on antihypertensive therapy with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker in persons with CKD to improve kidney outcomes. Although this guideline provides evidence-based recommendations for the management of high BP and should meet the clinical needs of most patients, these recommendations are not a substitute for clinical judgment, and decisions about care must carefully consider and incorporate the clinical characteristics and circumstances of each individual patient.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

In the last few years, the deep learning (DL) computing paradigm has been deemed the Gold Standard in the machine learning (ML) community. Moreover, it has gradually become the most widely used computational approach in the field of ML, thus achieving outstanding results on several complex cognitive tasks, matching or even beating those provided by human performance. One of the benefits of DL is the ability to learn massive amounts of data. The DL field has grown fast in the last few years and it has been extensively used to successfully address a wide range of traditional applications. More importantly, DL has outperformed well-known ML techniques in many domains, e.g., cybersecurity, natural language processing, bioinformatics, robotics and control, and medical information processing, among many others. Despite it has been contributed several works reviewing the State-of-the-Art on DL, all of them only tackled one aspect of the DL, which leads to an overall lack of knowledge about it. Therefore, in this contribution, we propose using a more holistic approach in order to provide a more suitable starting point from which to develop a full understanding of DL. Specifically, this review attempts to provide a more comprehensive survey of the most important aspects of DL and including those enhancements recently added to the field. In particular, this paper outlines the importance of DL, presents the types of DL techniques and networks. It then presents convolutional neural networks (CNNs) which the most utilized DL network type and describes the development of CNNs architectures together with their main features, e.g., starting with the AlexNet network and closing with the High-Resolution network (HR.Net). Finally, we further present the challenges and suggested solutions to help researchers understand the existing research gaps. It is followed by a list of the major DL applications. Computational tools including FPGA, GPU, and CPU are summarized along with a description of their influence on DL. The paper ends with the evolution matrix, benchmark datasets, and summary and conclusion.

Abstract The Astropy Project supports and fosters the development of open-source and openly developed Python packages that provide commonly needed functionality to the astronomical community. A key element of the Astropy Project is the core package astropy , which serves as the foundation for more specialized projects and packages. In this article, we provide an overview of the organization of the Astropy project and summarize key features in the core package, as of the recent major release, version 2.0. We then describe the project infrastructure designed to facilitate and support development for a broader ecosystem of interoperable packages. We conclude with a future outlook of planned new features and directions for the broader Astropy Project.

Numerous studies show that happy individuals are successful across multiple life domains, including marriage, friendship, income, work performance, and health. The authors suggest a conceptual model to account for these findings, arguing that the happiness-success link exists not only because success makes people happy, but also because positive affect engenders success. Three classes of evidence--crosssectional, longitudinal, and experimental--are documented to test their model. Relevant studies are described and their effect sizes combined meta-analytically. The results reveal that happiness is associated with and precedes numerous successful outcomes, as well as behaviors paralleling success. Furthermore, the evidence suggests that positive affect--the hallmark of well-being--may be the cause of many of the desirable characteristics, resources, and successes correlated with happiness. Limitations, empirical issues, and important future research questions are discussed.

Miller (1956) summarized evidence that people can remember about seven chunks in short-term memory (STM) tasks. However, that number was meant more as a rough estimate and a rhetorical device than as a real capacity limit. Others have since suggested that there is a more precise capacity limit, but that it is only three to five chunks. The present target article brings together a wide variety of data on capacity limits suggesting that the smaller capacity limit is real. Capacity limits will be useful in analyses of information processing only if the boundary conditions for observing them can be carefully described. Four basic conditions in which chunks can be identified and capacity limits can accordingly be observed are: (1) when information overload limits chunks to individual stimulus items, (2) when other steps are taken specifically to block the recording of stimulus items into larger chunks, (3) in performance discontinuities caused by the capacity limit, and (4) in various indirect effects of the capacity limit. Under these conditions, rehearsal and long-term memory cannot be used to combine stimulus items into chunks of an unknown size; nor can storage mechanisms that are not capacity-limited, such as sensory memory, allow the capacity-limited storage mechanism to be refilled during recall. A single, central capacity limit averaging about four chunks is implicated along with other, noncapacity-limited sources. The pure STM capacity limit expressed in chunks is distinguished from compound STM limits obtained when the number of separately held chunks is unclear. Reasons why pure capacity estimates fall within a narrow range are discussed and a capacity limit for the focus of attention is proposed.

The extended Kalman filter (EKF) is probably the most widely used estimation algorithm for nonlinear systems. However, more than 35 years of experience in the estimation community has shown that is difficult to implement, difficult to tune, and only reliable for systems that are almost linear on the time scale of the updates. Many of these difficulties arise from its use of linearization. To overcome this limitation, the unscented transformation (UT) was developed as a method to propagate mean and covariance information through nonlinear transformations. It is more accurate, easier to implement, and uses the same order of calculations as linearization. This paper reviews the motivation, development, use, and implications of the UT.

BACKGROUND: Bevacizumab, a monoclonal antibody against vascular endothelial growth factor, has been shown to benefit patients with a variety of cancers. METHODS: Between July 2001 and April 2004, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) conducted a randomized study in which 878 patients with recurrent or advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (stage IIIB or IV) were assigned to chemotherapy with paclitaxel and carboplatin alone (444) or paclitaxel and carboplatin plus bevacizumab (434). Chemotherapy was administered every 3 weeks for six cycles, and bevacizumab was administered every 3 weeks until disease progression was evident or toxic effects were intolerable. Patients with squamous-cell tumors, brain metastases, clinically significant hemoptysis, or inadequate organ function or performance status (ECOG performance status, >1) were excluded. The primary end point was overall survival. RESULTS: The median survival was 12.3 months in the group assigned to chemotherapy plus bevacizumab, as compared with 10.3 months in the chemotherapy-alone group (hazard ratio for death, 0.79; P=0.003). The median progression-free survival in the two groups was 6.2 and 4.5 months, respectively (hazard ratio for disease progression, 0.66; P<0.001), with corresponding response rates of 35% and 15% (P<0.001). Rates of clinically significant bleeding were 4.4% and 0.7%, respectively (P<0.001). There were 15 treatment-related deaths in the chemotherapy-plus-bevacizumab group, including 5 from pulmonary hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of bevacizumab to paclitaxel plus carboplatin in the treatment of selected patients with non-small-cell lung cancer has a significant survival benefit with the risk of increased treatment-related deaths. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00021060.)

ver the past three decades, a large number of studies have examined how consumers ’ evaluations of issues, candidates, and products are affected by media advertisements. Research on the methods by which consumers ’ attitudes are formed and changed has accelerated at a pace such that Kassarjian and Kassarjian were led to the conclusion that “attitudes clearly have become the central focus of consumer behavior research” ’ (1979, p. 3). Not only are there a large number of empirical studies on consumer attitude formation and change. but there are also a large number of different theories of persuasion vying for the attention of the discipline (see Engel and Blackwell 1982: Kassarjian 1982). In our recent reviews of the many approaches to attitude change employed in social and consumer psychology, we have suggested that-even though the different theories of persuasion possess different terminologies, postulates, underlying motives, and particular “effects ” that they specialize in explaining—these theories emphasize one of two distinct routes to attitude change (Petty and Cacioppo 1981, 1983). One, called the central route, views attitude change as resulting from a person’s diligent consideration of information that s/he feels is central to the true merits of a

Foreign DNA fragments can be inserted into filamentous phage gene III to create a fusion protein with the foreign sequence in the middle. The fusion protein is incorporated into the virion, which retains infectivity and displays the foreign amino acids in immunologically accessible form. These "fusion phage" can be enriched more than 1000-fold over ordinary phage by affinity for antibody directed against the foreign sequence. Fusion phage may provide a simple way of cloning a gene when an antibody against the product of that gene is available.

The authors conducted a content analysis on new scale development articles appearing in the Journal of Counseling Psychology during 10 years (1995 to 2004). The authors analyze and discuss characteristics of the exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis procedures in these scale development studies with respect to sample characteristics, factorability, extraction methods, rotation methods, item deletion or retention, factor retention, and model fit indexes. The authors uncovered a variety of specific practices that were at variance with the current literature on factor analysis or structural equation modeling. They make recommendations for best practices in scale development research in counseling psychology using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis.

This article reviews the construct and measurement of materialism and concludes that materialism is appropriately conceptualized as a consumer value. The devel-opment of a values-oriented materialism scale with three components-acquisition centrality, acquisition as the pursuit of happiness, and possession-defined success-is described. In validation tests high scorers (compared with low scorers) desired a higher level of income, placed greater emphasis on financial security and less on interpersonal relationships, preferred to spend more on themselves and less on others, engaged in fewer voluntary simplicity behaviors, and were less satisfied with their lives. A merica is a consumer society, and many treatises have described the dominance of consumption motives among Americans (see, e.g., Bredemeier and Toby 1960; de Tocqueville [1835] 1954; Wachtel 1983). In such discussions of consumption and materialism, authors tend to speak of consumers as an undifferen-tiated group, acting individually, perhaps, but guided equally by the same consuming desire for goods. Hence, Cushman (1990, p. 600) describes the post-World War II consumer as &amp;quot;yearn[ing] to acquire and consume,&amp;quot; Fox and Lears (1983, p. xii) see Americans as engaged in &amp;quot;a ceaseless pursuit of the &amp;apos;good life &amp;apos; &amp;quot; through con-sumption, and Fromm (1967, p. 179) notes that &amp;quot;con-temporary man has an unlimited hunger for more and more goods.&amp;quot; While consumer goods do play an important role in American culture, these analyses obscure differences among individuals. For some, possessions are essential to their lives and identities. For example, Lisa Labnon, a 30-year-old New Hampshire woman, became home-less when she lost her job and her condominium was repossessed. She refused to sell her Mercedes and mink coat, however, because the loss in image and self-esteem &amp;apos;Marsha L. Richins is associate professor of marketing, University

Oxygen isotope records of five stalagmites from Hulu Cave near Nanjing bear a remarkable resemblance to oxygen isotope records from Greenland ice cores, suggesting that East Asian Monsoon intensity changed in concert with Greenland temperature between 11,000 and 75,000 years before the present (yr. B.P.). Between 11,000 and 30,000 yr. B.P., the timing of changes in the monsoon, as established with 230Th dates, generally agrees with the timing of temperature changes from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project Two (GISP2) core, which supports GISP2's chronology in this interval. Our record links North Atlantic climate with the meridional transport of heat and moisture from the warmest part of the ocean where the summer East Asian Monsoon originates.

The pursuit of happiness is an important goal for many people. However, surprisingly little scientific research has focused on the question of how happiness can be increased and then sustained, probably because of pessimism engendered by the concepts of genetic determinism and hedonic adaptation. Nevertheless, emerging sources of optimism exist regarding the possibility of permanent increases in happiness. Drawing on the past well-being literature, the authors propose that a person's chronic happiness level is governed by 3 major factors: a genetically determined set point for happiness, happiness-relevant circumstantial factors, and happiness-relevant activities and practices. The authors then consider adaptation and dynamic processes to show why the activity category offers the best opportunities for sustainably increasing happiness. Finally, existing research is discussed in support of the model, including 2 preliminary happiness-increasing interventions.

Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are an emerging class of mixtures characterized by significant depressions in melting points compared to those of the neat constituent components. These materials are promising for applications as inexpensive "designer" solvents exhibiting a host of tunable physicochemical properties. A detailed review of the current literature reveals the lack of predictive understanding of the microscopic mechanisms that govern the structure-property relationships in this class of solvents. Complex hydrogen bonding is postulated as the root cause of their melting point depressions and physicochemical properties; to understand these hydrogen bonded networks, it is imperative to study these systems as dynamic entities using both simulations and experiments. This review emphasizes recent research efforts in order to elucidate the next steps needed to develop a fundamental framework needed for a deeper understanding of DESs. It covers recent developments in DES research, frames outstanding scientific questions, and identifies promising research thrusts aligned with the advancement of the field toward predictive models and fundamental understanding of these solvents.

For decades, studies of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) have challenged traditional concepts in toxicology, in particular the dogma of "the dose makes the poison," because EDCs can have effects at low doses that are not predicted by effects at higher doses. Here, we review two major concepts in EDC studies: low dose and nonmonotonicity. Low-dose effects were defined by the National Toxicology Program as those that occur in the range of human exposures or effects observed at doses below those used for traditional toxicological studies. We review the mechanistic data for low-dose effects and use a weight-of-evidence approach to analyze five examples from the EDC literature. Additionally, we explore nonmonotonic dose-response curves, defined as a nonlinear relationship between dose and effect where the slope of the curve changes sign somewhere within the range of doses examined. We provide a detailed discussion of the mechanisms responsible for generating these phenomena, plus hundreds of examples from the cell culture, animal, and epidemiology literature. We illustrate that nonmonotonic responses and low-dose effects are remarkably common in studies of natural hormones and EDCs. Whether low doses of EDCs influence certain human disorders is no longer conjecture, because epidemiological studies show that environmental exposures to EDCs are associated with human diseases and disabilities. We conclude that when nonmonotonic dose-response curves occur, the effects of low doses cannot be predicted by the effects observed at high doses. Thus, fundamental changes in chemical testing and safety determination are needed to protect human health.

Abstract High-quality and complete reference genome assemblies are fundamental for the application of genomics to biology, disease, and biodiversity conservation. However, such assemblies are available for only a few non-microbial species 1–4 . To address this issue, the international Genome 10K (G10K) consortium 5,6 has worked over a five-year period to evaluate and develop cost-effective methods for assembling highly accurate and nearly complete reference genomes. Here we present lessons learned from generating assemblies for 16 species that represent six major vertebrate lineages. We confirm that long-read sequencing technologies are essential for maximizing genome quality, and that unresolved complex repeats and haplotype heterozygosity are major sources of assembly error when not handled correctly. Our assemblies correct substantial errors, add missing sequence in some of the best historical reference genomes, and reveal biological discoveries. These include the identification of many false gene duplications, increases in gene sizes, chromosome rearrangements that are specific to lineages, a repeated independent chromosome breakpoint in bat genomes, and a canonical GC-rich pattern in protein-coding genes and their regulatory regions. Adopting these lessons, we have embarked on the Vertebrate Genomes Project (VGP), an international effort to generate high-quality, complete reference genomes for all of the roughly 70,000 extant vertebrate species and to help to enable a new era of discovery across the life sciences.

Plastics have transformed everyday life; usage is increasing and annual production is likely to exceed 300 million tonnes by 2010. In this concluding paper to the Theme Issue on Plastics, the Environment and Human Health, we synthesize current understanding of the benefits and concerns surrounding the use of plastics and look to future priorities, challenges and opportunities. It is evident that plastics bring many societal benefits and offer future technological and medical advances. However, concerns about usage and disposal are diverse and include accumulation of waste in landfills and in natural habitats, physical problems for wildlife resulting from ingestion or entanglement in plastic, the leaching of chemicals from plastic products and the potential for plastics to transfer chemicals to wildlife and humans. However, perhaps the most important overriding concern, which is implicit throughout this volume, is that our current usage is not sustainable. Around 4 per cent of world oil production is used as a feedstock to make plastics and a similar amount is used as energy in the process. Yet over a third of current production is used to make items of packaging, which are then rapidly discarded. Given our declining reserves of fossil fuels, and finite capacity for disposal of waste to landfill, this linear use of hydrocarbons, via packaging and other short-lived applications of plastic, is simply not sustainable. There are solutions, including material reduction, design for end-of-life recyclability, increased recycling capacity, development of bio-based feedstocks, strategies to reduce littering, the application of green chemistry life-cycle analyses and revised risk assessment approaches. Such measures will be most effective through the combined actions of the public, industry, scientists and policymakers. There is some urgency, as the quantity of plastics produced in the first 10 years of the current century is likely to approach the quantity produced in the entire century that preceded.

Drawing on propositions from social identity theory and signaling theory, we hypothesized that firms' corporate social performance (CSP) is related positively to their reputations and to their attractiveness as employers. Results indicate that independent ratings of CSP are related to firms' reputations and attractiveness as employers, suggesting that a firm's CSP may provide a competitive advantage in attracting applicants. Such results add to the growing literature suggesting that CSP may provide firms with competitive advantages.