West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use

Accurate and detailed spatial soil information is essential for environmental modelling, risk assessment and decision making. The use of Remote Sensing data as secondary sources of information in digital soil mapping has been found to be cost effective and less time consuming compared to traditional soil mapping approaches. But the potentials of Remote Sensing data in improving knowledge of local scale soil information in West Africa have not been fully explored. This study investigated the use of high spatial resolution satellite data (RapidEye and Landsat), terrain/climatic data and laboratory analysed soil samples to map the spatial distribution of six soil properties-sand, silt, clay, cation exchange capacity (CEC), soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen-in a 580 km2 agricultural watershed in south-western Burkina Faso. Four statistical prediction models-multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest regression (RFR), support vector machine (SVM), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB)-were tested and compared. Internal validation was conducted by cross validation while the predictions were validated against an independent set of soil samples considering the modelling area and an extrapolation area. Model performance statistics revealed that the machine learning techniques performed marginally better than the MLR, with the RFR providing in most cases the highest accuracy. The inability of MLR to handle non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables was found to be a limitation in accurately predicting soil properties at unsampled locations. Satellite data acquired during ploughing or early crop development stages (e.g. May, June) were found to be the most important spectral predictors while elevation, temperature and precipitation came up as prominent terrain/climatic variables in predicting soil properties. The results further showed that shortwave infrared and near infrared channels of Landsat8 as well as soil specific indices of redness, coloration and saturation were prominent predictors in digital soil mapping. Considering the increased availability of freely available Remote Sensing data (e.g. Landsat, SRTM, Sentinels), soil information at local and regional scales in data poor regions such as West Africa can be improved with relatively little financial and human resources.

Flood is one of the most destructive natural disasters of climate change effects in West Africa. Flood risk occurrence is a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, which calls for a better understanding of its spatial extent. The aim of this paper is to identify, and map areas of flood risk in Abidjan district. This work is based on the integration of multi-criteria data including slope, drainage density, type of soil, Isohyet, population density, land use and sewer system density within ArcGIS interface. The resulting AHP flood risk map shows that areas under high and very high flood risk covers 34 % of the study area. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method used as a multi-criteria analysis allowed the integration of several elements under two criteria, hazards and vulnerability, for flood risk assessment and mapping. Results revealed that, Abidjan district is heavily exposed to the risk of flooding. Eight out of thirteen (8/13) municipalities within the district are at a high risk of flooding which calls for decision makers to effectively develop strategies for future flood occurrences within the Abidjan district (South of Côte d’Ivoire).

In the Australian policy context, there has recently been a discernible shift in the discourse used when considering responses to the impacts of current weather extremes and future climate change. Commonly used terminology, such as climate change impacts and vulnerability, is now being increasingly replaced by a preference for language with more positive connotations as represented by resilience and a focus on the ‘strengthening’ of local communities. However, although this contemporary shift in emphasis has largely political roots, the scientific conceptual underpinning for resilience, and its relationship with climate change action, remains contested. To contribute to this debate, the authors argue that how adaptation is framed—in this case by the notion of resilience—can have an important influence on agenda setting, on the subsequent adaptation pathways that are pursued and on eventual adaptation outcomes. Drawing from multi-disciplinary adaptation research carried out in three urban case studies in the State of Victoria, Australia (‘Framing multi-level and multi-actor adaptation responses in the Victorian context’, funded by the Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (2010–2012)), this article is structured according to three main discussion points. Firstly, the importance of being explicit when framing adaptation; secondly, this study reflects on how resilience is emerging as part of adaptation discourse and narratives in different scientific, research and policy-making communities; and finally, the authors reflect on the implications of resilience framing for evolving adaptation policy and practice.

One of the key features of the post-Rio era has been how global environmental governance is mediated between local, national and global levels of government. In this article, we draw on experiences from local climate policy planning in Norway in order to discuss the ways in which climate change enters into a municipal policy setting. Based on the Norwegian case, supplemented with knowledge gained from an international literature review, we present a typology of six different categories of local climate policy. We highlight that local actors can both play the role as a structure for the implementation of national or international climate objectives, as well as that of being policy actors taking independent policy initiatives. We emphasize how the relationship between national and local authorities is a crucial factor if climate policy as a specific local responsibility should be further strengthened.

Abstract Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment‐Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June–August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. In general, all the above features are more extended and more frequent in the 2 °C than in the 1.5 °C scenario. Protective measures are thus required for outdoor workers, occupational settings in hot environments, and people engaged in strenuous activities.

Inadequate land management and agricultural activities have largely resulted in land degradation in Burkina Faso. The nationwide governmental and institutional driven implementation and adoption of soil and water conservation measures (SWCM) since the early 1960s, however, is expected to successively slow down the degradation process and to increase the agricultural output. Even though relevant measures have been taken, only a few studies have been conducted to quantify their effect, for instance, on soil erosion and environmental restoration. In addition, a comprehensive summary of initiatives, implementation strategies, and eventually region-specific requirements for adopting different SWCM is missing. The present study therefore aims to review the different SWCM in Burkina Faso and implementation programs, as well as to provide information on their effects on environmental restoration and agricultural productivity. This was achieved by considering over 143 studies focusing on Burkina Faso’s experience and research progress in areas of SWCM and soil erosion. SWCM in Burkina Faso have largely resulted in an increase in agricultural productivity and improvement in food security. Finally, this study aims at supporting the country’s informed decision-making for extending already existing SWCM and for deriving further implementation strategies.

Weather index-based crop insurance is increasingly becoming important as a risk mitigation strategy that farmers may use to mitigate adverse climate shocks and natural disasters encountered during farming. While Europe, North America, and Asia account for 20.1%, 55%, and 19.5% of the total agricultural insurance premium worldwide, respectively, Africa accounts for only 0.5% of the world insurance industry. One of the key reasons advanced against the low index insurance participation rate in Africa is the failure to involve farm households at the initial conceptualization and design of pilot initiatives. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to design an improved participatory methodology that could help elicit information on the value placed by farm households in Southwestern Burkina Faso on a new weather index-based crop insurance management initiative. A key concept in the improved participatory methodology is that of the willingness to pay (WTP) of farm households for the scheme. Knowledge of the maximum amount that farmers are willing to pay for the scheme can help insurance policy providers and public policy makers to design and put in place measures that sustain index insurance schemes in a developing country context and improve welfare among participating farmers.

Abstract West Africa is in general limited to rainfed agriculture. It lacks irrigation opportunities and technologies that are applied in many economically developed nations. A warming climate along with an increasing population and wealth has the potential to further strain the region’s potential to meet future food needs. In this study, we investigate West Africa’s hydrological potential to increase agricultural productivity through the implementation of large-scale water storage and irrigation. A 23-member ensemble of Regional Climate Models is applied to assess changes in hydrologically relevant variables under 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming scenarios according to the UNFCCC 2015 Conference of Parties (COP 21) agreement. Changes in crop water demand, irrigation water need, water availability and the difference between water availability and irrigation water needs, here referred as basin potential, are presented for ten major river basins covering entire West Africa. Under the 2 °C scenario, crop water demand and irrigation water needs are projected to substantially increase with the largest changes in the Sahel and Gulf of Guinea respectively. At the same time, irrigation potential, which is directly controlled by the climate, is projected to decrease even in regions where water availability increases. This indicates that West African river basins will likely face severe freshwater shortages thus limiting sustainable agriculture. We conclude a general decline in the basin-scale irrigation potential in the event of large-scale irrigation development under 2 °C global warming. Reducing the warming to 1.5 °C decreases these impacts by as much as 50%, suggesting that the region of West Africa clearly benefits from efforts of enhanced mitigation.

This study examined the trends in annual rainfall and temperature extremes over the Vea catchment for the period 1985–2016, using quality-controlled stations and a high resolution (5 km) Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data. The CHIRPS gridded precipitation data’s ability in reproducing the climatology of the catchment was evaluated. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices were computed using a RClimdex package by considering seventeen (17) climate change indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). Trend detection and quantification in the rainfall (frequency and intensity) and temperature extreme indices were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results show a very high seasonal correlation coefficient (r = 0.99), Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (0.98) and percentage bias (4.4% and −8.1%) between the stations and the gridded data. An investigation of dry and wet years using Standardized Anomaly Index shows 45.5% frequency of drier than normal periods compared to 54.5% wetter than normal periods in the catchment with 1999 and 2003 been extremely wet years while the year 1990 and 2013 were extremely dry. The intensity and magnitude of extreme rainfall indices show a decreasing trend for more than 78% of the rainfall locations while positive trends were observed in the frequency of extreme rainfall indices (R10mm, R20mm, and CDD) with the exception of consecutive wet days (CWD) that shows a decreasing trend. A general warming trend over the catchment was observed through the increase in the annual number of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p) and warm spells (WSDI). The spatial distribution analysis shows a high frequency and intensity of extremes rainfall indices in the south of the catchment compared to the middle and northern of part of the catchment, while temperature extremes were uniformly distributed over the catchment.

BACKGROUND: The lack of literature on the interactions between indigenous people and the valuable agroforestry trees hinder the promotion of sustainable management of plant resources in West African Sahel. This study aimed at assessing local uses and management of Afzelia africana Sm. in Burkina Faso, as a prerequisite to address issues of domestication and sustainable conservation. METHODS: One thousand forty-four peoples of seven dominant ethnic groups were questioned in 11 villages through 221 semi-structured focus group interviews. The surveys encompassed several rural communities living around six protected areas along the species distribution range. Questions refer mainly to vernacular names of A. africana, locals' motivations to conserve the species, the uses, management practices and local ecological knowledge on the species. Citation frequency was calculated for each response item of each questionnaire section to obtain quantitative data. The quantitative data were then submitted to comparison tests and multivariate statistics in R program. RESULTS: A. africana is a locally well-known tree described as a refuge of invisible spirits. Due to this mystery and its multipurpose uses, A. africana is conserved within the agroforestry systems. The species is widely and mostly used as fodder (87.55%), drugs (75.93%), fetish or sanctuary (70.95%), food (41.49%), and raw material for carpentry (36.19%) and construction (7.05%). While the uses as fodder, food and construction involved one organ, the leaves and wood respectively, the medicinal use was the most diversified. All tree organs were traditionally used in 10 medical prescriptions to cure about 20 diseases. The species use values differed between ethnic groups with lower values within the Dagara and Fulani. The findings reveal a total absence of specific management practices such as assisted natural regeneration, seeding, or transplantation of A. africana sapling. However, trees were permanently pruned and debarked by local people. Harvesting of barks mostly contributed to the decline of the species populations. Local people acknowledged declining populations of A. africana with lower densities within the agroecosystems. They also perceived between individuals, variations in the traits of barks, leaves, fruits and seeds. Significant differences were found between ethnic groups and gender regarding the species uses. Local knowledge on the species distribution differed between ethnic groups. CONCLUSION: This study showed the multipurpose uses of A. africana throughout Burkina Faso. The results provide relevant social and ecological indicators to all stakeholders and constitute a springboard towards the species domestication and the elaboration of efficient sustainable conservation plans.

Abstract We study the interactions between plant evapotranspiration, controlled by photosynthesis (C3 and C4 grasses), and moist thermals responsible for the formation of shallow cumulus clouds (SCu). Our findings are based on a series of systematic numerical experiments at fine spatial and temporal scales using large eddy simulations explicitly coupled to a plant‐physiology model. The shading provided by SCu leads to strong spatial variability in photosynthesis and the surface energy balance. This in turn results in SCu characterized by less extreme and less skewed values of liquid water path. The larger water use efficiency of C4 grass leads to two opposite effects that influence boundary layer clouds: more vigorous and deeper thermals due to the larger buoyancy surface flux (positive effect) characterized by less moisture content (negative). We find that under these midlatitude and well‐watered soil conditions, SCu are characterized by a larger cloud cover and liquid water path over C4 grass fields.

ABSTRACT The mean climatology, inter‐model variability and spatio‐temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation over West Africa from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ( CMIP5 ), CMIP5_SUBSET [ensemble of global climate models driving COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment ( CORDEX )] and CORDEX multi‐model ensembles are evaluated and intercompared for the monsoon season (June–September). We find that, while CORDEX fails to outperform the simulated mean climatology of temperature by the CMIP5 ensembles, it substantially improves precipitation and provides more realistic fine‐scale features tied to local topography and landuse. This improved performance over the region is found to depend more on the internal models physics than the driving boundary conditions and results from a more consistent and realistic simulation of monsoon precipitation across the various regional climate models ( RCMs ). Rotated empirical orthogonal function ( REOF ) analysis indicates that the CORDEX ensemble captures better the spatio‐temporal variability of both temperature and precipitation (first REOF mode), in particular depicting the warming and Sahel precipitation recovery in recent decades over West Africa. On the other hand, the spatial patterns and associated time series of the last two REOF modes in CORDEX mostly follow the CMIP5_SUBSET pointing towards a strong role of the boundary forcing in the RCM simulation of precipitation variability.

Water is an important resource needed in every aspect of life, e.g. human habitats, economic prosperity, food security, etc. There is a need to simulate and quantify the availability of water using hydrologic models with reliable data. For this reason, this study successfully calibrated and validated the water balance of the Sherigu catchment using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model performed satisfactorily with statistical values of Nash-Sutcliffe and correlation coefficient greater than 0.7. Evapotranspiration consumed 72% of the total annual precipitation. The total discharge was estimated to be 14%, which comprises surface runoff of about 9% and baseflow of 5%, whiles percolation into the unconfined and confined aquifers as soil and groundwater storages also accounted for 14%. The average soil storage across the catchment suggests that the shallow aquifer store more water with the potential of a high water table for extraction during the dry season.

The role of the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola Kieffer in recent and unprecedented outbreaks of Culicoides-borne arboviruses in southern Europe has been a significant point of contention. We combined entomological surveys, movement simulations of air-borne particles, and population genetics to reconstruct the chain of events that led to a newly colonized French area nestled at the northern foot of the Pyrenees. Simulating the movement of air-borne particles evidenced frequent wind-transport events allowing, within at most 36 hours, the immigration of midges from north-eastern Spain and Balearic Islands, and, as rare events, their immigration from Corsica. Completing the puzzle, population genetic analyses discriminated Corsica as the origin of the new population and identified two successive colonization events within west-Mediterranean basin. Our findings are of considerable importance when trying to understand the invasion of new territories by expanding species.

Abstract Soil salinity is a major issue causing land degradation in coastal areas. In this study, we assessed the land use and soil salinity changes in Djilor district (Senegal) using remote sensing and field data. We performed land use land cover changes for the years 1984, 1994, 2007, and 2017. Electrical conductivity was measured from 300 soil samples collected at the study area; this, together with elevation, distance to river, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Salinity Index (SI), and Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), was used to build the salinity model using a multiple regression analysis. Supervised classification and intensity analysis were applied to determine the annual change area and the variation of gains and losses. The results showed that croplands recorded the highest gain (17%) throughout the period 1984–2017, while forest recorded 3%. The fastest annual area of change occurred during the period 1984–1994. The salinity model showed a high potential for mapping saline areas ( R 2 = 0.73 and RMSE = 0.68). Regarding salinity change, the slightly saline areas (2 < EC < 4 dS/m) increased by 42% whereas highly saline (EC > 8 dS/m) and moderately saline (4 < EC < 8 dS/m) areas decreased by 23% and 26%, respectively, in 2017. Additionally, the increasing salt content is less dominant in vegetated areas compared with non-vegetated areas. Nonetheless, the highly concentrated salty areas can be restored using salt-resistant plants (e.g., Eucalyptus sp . , Tamarix sp.). This study gives more insights on land use planning and salinity management for improving farmers’ resilience in coastal regions.

Abstract Periodic climate zoning is an essential classification of land cover to account for anthropogenic activities resulting from population increase and urbanization that affect key climate response parameters. Rainfall, relative humidity (RH), maximum (T max ) and minimum temperature (T min ) data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency were used to zone Ghana by adopting cluster and PCA analysis methods and verifying the groupings with the seasonal trend and Tukey Honestly Significance Difference (HSD) analysis. The cluster analysis grouped the synoptic stations into four major homogenous clusters while the PCA distributed them into three sub‐divisions with reference to 1976–2018. Rainfall, RH, T max and T min were characterized by five, three, two and three factors with factor loadings in the range of 0.71–0.78, 0.53–0.70, 0.54–0.74 and 0.50–0.72, respectively. HSD found transition stations like Bole and Kete Krachi in cluster 1 and 2 to have no significant difference with cluster 1, while Wenchi, Sunyani, Sefwi Bekwai and Koforidua in cluster 2 had no significant difference with cluster 3. Accra station which was classified in cluster 3 showed the seasonal pattern of cluster 4 and was confirmed by HSD to belong in cluster 4. Therefore, Ghana‐based on‐point analysis is climatically grouped into Savannah (11°0′0′′N–7°46′11′′N), Forest (from 7°46′11′′N to the coast) and Coastal (about 30 km from the Gulf of Guinea coastline) based on the assessed parameters. These findings are vital for planners and decision‐makers especially for industries that depend on weather and climatic conditions for their activities.

Predicting taxonomic classes can be challenging with dataset subject to substantial irregularities due to the involvement of many surveyors. A data pruning approach was used in the present study to reduce such source errors by exploring whether different data pruning methods, which result in different subsets of a major reference soil groups (RSG) - the Plinthosols - would lead to an increase in prediction accuracy of the minor soil groups by using Random Forest (RF). This method was compared to the random oversampling approach. Four datasets were used, including the entire dataset and the pruned dataset, which consisted of 80% and 90% respectively, and standard deviation core range of the Plinthosols data while cutting off all data points belonging to the outer range. The best prediction was achieved when RF was used with recursive feature elimination along with the non-oversampled 90% core range dataset. This model provided a substantial agreement to observation, with a kappa value of 0.57 along with 7% to 35% increase in prediction accuracy for smaller RSG. The reference soil groups in the Dano catchment appeared to be mainly influenced by the wetness index, a proxy for soil moisture distribution.

BACKGROUND: Although there is general agreement as to the pathophysiology and treatment of compartment syndrome and the importance of intramuscular pressure measurements, there are many methods described to obtain these measurements. Variations in experimental measurements using current electronic monitoring, needle, and catheter devices of 18 to 22 mmHg are reported and are enough to cause errors in clinical decision-making that could result in significant clinical consequences. Current unacceptable reliability has been reported with the use of bevel-tipped needles and the clinical Whitesides technique. Because this is contrary to the authors' cumulative clinical and research experience with various methods when properly used (with the small required saline flush to assure a fluid continuum between tissue and the pressure monitor), this study was designed to clarify these problems. Although the two Whitesides techniques (original and clinical) are not in current use where digital methods are available, the clinical method is still used in the Third World. METHODS: To eliminate comparative errors, a laboratory compartment syndrome model was devised to allow simultaneous testing of different devices in the same area of fusiform muscle against increasing intramuscular pressure using the same transducer and monitor. Slit catheters, side-ported bevel-tipped needles, and 18-gauge bevel-tipped needles were compared against each other. The two Whitesides methods using a capillary meniscus and a mercury manometer were compared against a current electronic transducer method using identical 18-gauge bevel-tipped needles and varying diameter capillary tubing. RESULTS: The side-ported needle, slit catheter, and 18-gauge bevel-tipped needle were found to measure equivalent pressure when compared statistically with each other in pairs. The original Whitesides method using a 1.25-mm capillary tube and the digital transducer method using 18-gauge bevel-tipped needles was also found to measure equivalent pressure. The clinical Whitesides method using current plastic intravenous tubing of 3.0-mm internal diameter fails to produce an obvious capillary meniscus, leading to diminished reliability in the measured pressure. CONCLUSIONS: The slit catheter, side-ported bevel-tipped needle, or an 18-gauge needle, when appropriately used with current electronic transducer monitoring, may be used clinically with confidence. When digital methods are not available, the original Whitesides method using 1.25-mm glass capillary tubing is an accurate alternative but requires preplanning. When only 3-mm tubing is available, this method is relatively useful when electronic means are not available by averaging several consecutive measurements.

The exceedance probability of extreme daily precipitation is usually quantified assuming asymptotic behaviours. Non-asymptotic statistics, however, would allow us to describe extremes with reduced uncertainty and to establish relations between physical processes and emerging extremes. These approaches are still mistrusted by part of the community as they rely on assumptions on the tail behaviour of the daily precipitation distribution. This paper addresses this gap. We use global quality-controlled long rain gauge records to show that daily precipitation annual maxima are samples likely emerging from Weibull tails in most of the stations worldwide. These non-asymptotic tails can explain the statistics of observed extremes better than asymptotic approximations from extreme value theory. We call for a renewed consideration of non-asymptotic statistics for the description of extremes.

The discussion on the effect of natural resources on economic growth remains a contentious issue of scientific research. An emerging issue to this discussion is the role of political regime in determining the nature of the growth and natural resource nexus. Consequently, this study examines the effect of natural resources on the economic growth of Tunisia and how the country's political regime moderates this relationship using annual time series data over the 1970–2017 period. Regression analysis established that in the long‐run natural resources generally have positive effects on the country's economic growth, while political regime has mixed effects on economic growth. The interaction between political regime and resources indicates democracy enhances the positive gains from natural resources on economic growth although in the short run, the outcome is mixed. The effects of specific natural resource (oil, mineral, and forest rents) on sectoral growth are positive. Political regime interacts with oil, mineral, and forest rents to propel growth in the agricultural sector. The study concludes that democratic regime is crucial for the effective utilization of resources for long‐run economic growth in the country. Beyond natural resource abundance examined in this study, there is a further need to analyze the extent to which the economy relies on these natural resources and its effect on the economy in future studies. This would elucidate the “natural resource blessings” estimated in this study. The role of other measures of institutional quality on the subject matter can be explored in Tunisia and other countries in future studies.