White Rose University Consortium

The literature on acceptability of road pricing schemes is reviewed, and a number of limitations of that research are identified. In particular, little evidence is found of the differences between users and non-users and the effects of scheme design and level of charge. A stated preference survey was conducted in two UK cities to provide evidence on these issues. Charging was found to be more acceptable to non-users, those who perceived pollution and congestion to be very serious, those who considered current conditions unacceptable, and those who judged road pricing to be effective. It proved possible to identify design combinations, for both cities, which would be voted for by a majority.

Abstract This paper examines the demand for local bus services in England. The study is based on a dynamic model relating per capita bus patronage to bus fares, income, and service level, and is estimated using a combination of time-series and cross-section data for English counties. The results indicate that patronage is relatively fare-sensitive, with a wide variation in the elasticities.

A potentially cost-effective and scalable method to stabilize pH in microalgal batch cultures is proposed in this study. The cultures were supplied with different concentrations of CO 2 enriched gas and controlled amounts of bicarbonate were added. An empirical model correlating the equilibrium pH to bicarbonate and CO 2 stream concentrations was established experimentally. Finally, the isolated impact of either pH or CO 2 concentration on Dunaliella salina growth was studied.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk identification checklist for facilitating user companies to surface, organise and manage potential risks associated with the post‐adoption of enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. Design/methodology/approach A desktop study, based on the process of a critical literature review, is conducted by the researchers. The critical review focuses on information systems and business research papers, books, case studies and theoretical articles, etc. Findings By systematically and critically analysing and synthesising the literature review, the researchers identify and propose a total of 40 ERP post‐implementation risks related to diverse operational, analytical, organisation‐wide and technical aspects. A risk ontology is subsequently established to highlight these ERP risks, as well as to present their potential causal relationships. Research limitations/implications For researchers, the established ERP risk ontology represents a starting point for further research, and provides early insights into a research field that will become increasingly important as more and more companies progress from implementation to exploitation of ERPs. Practical implications For practitioners, the risk ontology is an important tool and checklist to support risk identification, prevention, management and control, as well as to facilitate strategic planning and decision making. Originality/value There is a scarcity of studies focusing on ERP post‐implementation in contrast with an over abundance of studies focusing on system implementation and project management aspects. This paper aims to fill this significant research gap by presenting a risk ontology of ERP post‐adoption. It represents a first attempt in producing a comprehensive model in its area. No other such models can be found from the literature review.

Suppose that one has a clinical dataset with only non-preference-based QOL data, and that one nevertheless would like to perform a cost/QALY analysis. This study reports on some efforts to establish a “mapping” relationship between AQLQ (a non-preference-based QOL instrument for asthma) and EQ5D (a preference-based generic instrument). Various methods are described in terms of associated assumptions regarding the measurement properties of the instruments. This is followed by empirical mapping, based on regressing EQ5D on AQLQ. Six main regression models and two supplementary models are identified, and the regressions carried out. Performance of each model is explored in terms of goodness of fit between observed and predicted values, and of robustness of predictions on external data. The results show that it is possible to predict mean EQ5D indices given AQLQ data. The general implications for methods of mapping non-preference-based instruments onto preference-based measures are discussed.

This paper presents a simple yet biologicallygrounded
\nmodel of the C. elegans neural circuit
\nfor forward locomotive control. The model considers
\na limited subset of the C. elegans nervous
\nsystem, within a minimal two-dimensional environment.
\nDespite its reductionist approach, this
\nmodel is sufficiently rich to generate patterns of
\nundulations that are reminiscent of the biological
\nworm’s behaviour and qualitatively similar to
\npatterns which have been shown to generate locomotion
\nin a model of a richer physical environment.
\nInterestingly, and contrary to conventional
\nwisdom about neural circuits for motor control,
\nour results are consistent with the conjecture that
\nthe worm may be relying on feedback from the
\nshape of its body to generate undulations that
\npropel it forward or backward.

Supply curves are essential for demand prediction in aggregate networks, and need to relate cost
\nof use to flow demanded rather than to flow performed. The paper defines the parameters of relevance
\nand the relationships required. A microsimulation model is used to generate such relationships
\nfor hypothetical networks. Network performance curves can exhibit backward-bending
\nrelationships between speed and flow performed, but these curves are inappropriatefor demand
\nprediction. Relationships between speed and flow demanded are monotonic, but not necessarily
\nlinear. They can exhibit spatial and temporal dependencies, both of which requires them to be reestimated
\nif demand patterns change.

English Despite an increasing commitment to tackle disadvantage and discrimination, welfare states in the West struggle to provide accessible and appropriate health and social care to people of minority ethnic populations. This article analyses the dilemmas of welfare provision in an ethnically diverse state by drawing on empirical findings from a qualitative study exploring the perceptions and experiences of family life and social support for people of Pakistani origin living in the UK, and its interface with the state as a site of potentially competing and conflicting sets of social values. We conclude by suggesting that a notion of ‘reflexive practitioner’ is fundamental to generating a critical insight that can deal with the tensions posed by diversity for a welfare state.

Artificial neural networks have been used to investigate their capabilities at estimating key parameters for the characterisation of flow processes, based on electrical capacitance-sensed tomographic (ECT) data. The estimations of the parameters are done directly, without recourse to tomographic images. The parameters of interest include component height and interface orientation of two-component flows, and component fractions of two-component and three-component flows. Separate multi-layer perceptron networks were trained with patterns consisting of pairs of simulated ECT data and the corresponding component heights, interface orientations and component fractions. The networks were then tested with patterns consisting of unlearned simulated ECT data of various flows and, with real ECT data of gas-water flows. The neural systems provided estimations having mean absolute errors of less than 1% for oil and water heights and fractions; and less than 10° for interface orientations. When tested with real plant ECT data, the mean absolute errors were less than 4% for water height, less than 15° for gas-water interface orientation and less than 3% for water fraction, respectively. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the application of artificial neural networks for flow process parameter estimations based upon tomography data.

Objectives: 
\nThe aim of this study was to test the feasibility of estimating preference weights for all health states defined by the Child Health Utility 9D (CHU9D), a new generic measure of health related quality of life for children. This will allow the calculation of quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for use in paediatric economic evaluation. 
\n
\nMethods: 
\nValuation interviews were undertaken with 300 members of the UK adult general population using standard gamble and ranking valuation methods. Regression modelling was undertaken to estimate models that could predict a value for every health state defined by the CHU9D. A range of models were tested and evaluated based on their predictive performance.
\n 
\nResults: 
\nModels estimated on the standard gamble data performed better than the rank model. All models had a few inconsistencies or insignificant levels and so further modelling was done to estimate a parsimonious consistent regression model, by combining inconsistent levels and removing non significant levels. The final preferred model was an OLS model where all coefficients were significant, there were no inconsistencies and the model had the best predictive performance. 
\n
\nConclusion: 
\nThis research has demonstrated it is feasible to value the CHU9D descriptive system and preference weights for each health state can be generated to allow the calculation of QALYs. The CHU9D can now be used in the economic evaluation of paediatric health care interventions. Further research is needed to investigate the impact of children’s preferences for the health states and what methods could be used to obtain these preferences.

Using archive documents of the British Federation of Business and Professional Women (BFBPW) this article explores the role of this early business organisation in campaigning for feminist issues in the post‐war period. It argues that the BFBPW is indicative of the complexities of the women’s movement in the post‐suffrage era when it fragmented into interconnecting campaigning organisations around a multitude of women’s issues. The article suggests that businesswomen in this period acted in ways that anticipated modern ‘femocratic’ practice in the way they sought to use business networks to gain access to parliamentary policy networks.

A pilot-scale primary maturation pond was spiked with 15N-labelled ammonia (15NH4Cl) and 15N labelled nitrite (Na15NO2), in order to improve current understanding of the dynamics of inorganic nitrogen transformations and removal in WSP systems. Stable isotope analysis of δ15N showed that nitrification could be considered as an intermediate step in WSP, which is masked by simultaneous denitrification, under conditions of low algal activity. Molecular microbiology analysis showed that denitrification can be considered a feasible mechanism for permanent nitrogen removal in WSP, which may be supported either by ammonia-oxidising bacteria (AOB) or by methanotrophs, in addition to nitrite-oxidising bacteria (NOB). However, the relative supremacy of the denitrification process over other nitrogen removal mechanisms (e.g., biological uptake) depends upon phytoplanktonic activity.

This paper describes the development of a voice-input voice-output communication aid (VIVOCA) for people with disordered or unintelligible speech, initially concentrating on people with severe dysarthria. The VIVOCA is intended to recognize and interpret an individual’s disordered speech and speak out an equivalent message in clear synthesized speech. User consultation suggests that such a device would be acceptable and would be useful in communication situations where speed and intelligibility are crucial. Speech recognition techniques build on previously successful development of speech-based home control interfaces, and various methods for speech ‘translation’ have been evaluated.

The paper derives operating and financial measures of leverage and tests their association with market based measures of equity risk. It is the first such study to use purely accounting-based data to derive the leverage measures. In line with previous literature it conducts a new test on the relative importance of operating and financial leverage. The results suggest that operating costs have a greater impact.

This paper is circulated for discussion purposes only and its contents should be considered preliminary. A revised version of this paper will be published in A. Wilkinson, M.

The BSE crisis represents one of the worst policy disasters experienced by a UK government in recent years. In material terms, it led to the slaughter of 3.3 million cattle and an estimated economic loss of £3.7 billion. In administrative terms, the crisis led to the dissolution of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF), an institution that was heavily criticised by the Phillips Inquiry for its lack of openness and transparency. Although far less severe in terms of its economic impact, with estimated losses of between Euro 0.8 and 1.05 billion, the German BSE crisis resulted in extensive political fallout, leading, inter alia, to the resignation of two government ministers. This paper compares the handling of the crisis in the UK and Germany and the regulation put in place in its aftermath. It explores the reasons for the failure of both governments to manage this crisis in a credible, timely and proactive fashion. Examining the institutional contexts in which decisions about scientific evidence on BSE were made, the paper argues that, in both countries, a centralised system, in which government agencies controlled “science for government”, was vulnerable to expert-interest group alliances which undermined the potential for a credible assessment of public health and safety risks. Looking at the policies adopted in the aftermath of these crises, the paper notes that, although being far less affected by BSE, Germany paradoxically adopted far more rigorous measures for the prevention of future incidents, which included the strict administrative separation of the risk assessment and management functions. Our paper concludes that the extent of administrative reforms which are initiated in response to crises is more likely to correspond to that general receptiveness of the political environment to these reforms, than the ‘objective’ impact of the crisis itself.

Highway Authorities in many parts of the world have, for some years, been using variable message panels mounted above or beside the camageway to communicate short messages to motorists. Most such applications have been concerned with hazard warning and speed advice. However, their use to deliberately affect route choice is an area of great current interest. It is recognised that they have a potential role in managing demand to match the capacity available, not only to alleviate acute problems caused by roadworks and accidents, but also to contribute to satisfactory performance of networks operating close to capacity over extended periods of high, but variable, demand. The installation and operation of the panels is not cheap and there is a widespread belief that overuse, or inappropriate use, of the messages may lead to them losing their credibility with the motorists and thus ceasing to be effective. It is therefore very important to understand the likely response of motorists to various messages before displaying them and even before selecting sites for the installation of panels. 
\n
\nA number of researchers have explored drivers' responses to traffic information and route advice offered via variable message signs (VMS). Evidence from traffic counts suggests that messages can persuade somewhere between 5% and 80% of drivers to divert. Clearly this range of estimates is far too wide to support the use of VMS for fine tuning the pattern of demand. A major contributor to the uncertainty, however, is the varying, and often unknown, proportion of drivers whose destination makes the message relevant to them. More detailed studies involving driver interviews downstream of the VM!3 site to determine the relevance of the message, as well as the response to it, include those by Kawashima (1991) and Durand-Raucher et al. (1993). These studies have produced more precise estimates of compliance but the results are obviously limited to those messages which were on display at the time the interviews were being conducted. 
\n
\nA number of researchers have sought to overcome this restriction by examining response to a range of messages presented via a stated preference exercise (see for example Hato et al., 1995; Shao et al., 1995 and Bonsall and Whelm, 1995), via a route-choice-simulator (see for example Firmin, 1996; Bonsall and Merrall, 1995 ; Bonsall and Palmer, 1997) or via a full scale driving simulator or system mock-up (see for example Mast and Ballas, 1976 and Brocken and Van der Vlist, 1991). This research has suggested that response is highly dependent on message content, subjects' network knowledge, and on the extent of any implied diversion. 
\n
\nWe see particular value in extending this earlier work to consider a wider range of messages and to determine whether the route-choice-simulator results can be repeated and extended using a somewhat cheaper methodology - namely stated preference analysis. The objectives of the work reported in this paper were thus: 
\n
\nto extend to our existing database on drivers' response to traffic information and route advice provided in variable message signs, to include a wider range of messages. 
\n
\nto construct explanatory models of drivers' route choice behaviour in response to a variety of messages
\n
\n to explore the factors influencing this response
\n
\n to compare these results with previous results obtained using a variety of data collection methods
\n
\n to draw policy conclusions, where appropriate, on the use of variable message signs to influence drivers' route choice
\n
\n to draw conclusions, where appropriate, on our data collection and modelling methodology.

Objective. The importance of user involvement in design, development and diffusion of all devices is widely accepted; however, the methods of achieving true user contribution to a design or development process are challenging. The challenges are increased when the target consumers for the device have disabilities that can make traditional methods of gaining user involvement at best difficult, and at worst impossible. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of a number of user involvement techniques employed on projects carried out by the authors.

Small livestock trailers are commonly used to transport animals from farms to market
\nwithin the United Kingdom. Due to the bluff nature of these vehicles there is great potential
\nfor reducing drag with a simple add-on fairing. This paper explores the feasibility of
\ncombining high-fidelity aerodynamic analysis, accurate metamodeling, and efficient
\noptimization techniques to find an optimum fairing geometry which reduces drag, without
\nsignificantly impairing internal ventilation. Airflow simulations were carried out using
\nComputational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to assess the performance of each fairing based on
\nthree design variables. A Moving Least Squares (MLS) metamodel was built on a fifty-point
\nOptimal Latin Hypercube (OLH) Design of Experiments (DoE), where each point
\nrepresented a different geometry configuration. Traditional optimization techniques were
\nemployed on the metamodel until an optimum geometrical configuration was found. This
\noptimum design was tested using CFD and it matched closely to the metamodel prediction.
\nFurther, the drag reduction was measured at 14.4% on the trailer and 6.6% for the
\ncombined truck and trailer.

This paper proposes the use of a number of nonparametric comparison methods for evaluating traffic flow forecasting techniques. The advantage to these methods is that they are free of any distributional assumptions and can be legitimately used on small datasets. To demonstrate the applicability of these tests, a number of models for the forecasting of traffic flows are developed. The one-step-ahead forecasts produced are then assessed using nonparametric methods. Consideration is given as to whether a method is universally good or good at reproducing a particular aspect of the original series. That choice will be dictated, to a degree, by the user’s purpose for assessing traffic flow.