Wrexham Maelor Hospital

The Early Warning Score (EWS) is a simple physiological scoring system suitable for bedside application. The ability of a modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) to identify medical patients at risk of catastrophic deterioration in a busy clinical area was investigated. In a prospective cohort study, we applied MEWS to patients admitted to the 56-bed acute Medical Admissions Unit (MAU) of a District General Hospital (DGH). Data on 709 medical emergency admissions were collected during March 2000. Main outcome measures were death, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, high dependency unit (HDU) admission, cardiac arrest, survival and hospital discharge at 60 days. Scores of 5 or more were associated with increased risk of death (OR 5.4, 95%CI 2.8-10.7), ICU admission (OR 10.9, 95%CI 2.2-55.6) and HDU admission (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.2-9.2). MEWS can be applied easily in a DGH medical admission unit, and identifies patients at risk of deterioration who require increased levels of care in the HDU or ICU. A clinical pathway could be created, using nurse practitioners and/or critical care physicians, to respond to high scores and intervene with appropriate changes in clinical management.

Abstract The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-19 1,2 , host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases 3–7 . They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.

Summary Skin disease can cause severe disability and handicap in children. Measurement of the impact of skin disease on the quality of life is required to aid clinical decision-making, for clinical research, for audit of paediatric dermatology services, and for political reasons, to aid arguments for more resources for the care of children with skin disease. Adult measures are inappropriate, as the lives of children differ markedly from those of adults. The purpose of this study was to create and initially validate a simple practical questionnaire for use in children. One hundred and sixty-nine children, aged 3–16 years, attending a paediatric dermatology clinic, wrote down, with the help of their parents, all the ways in which their skin disease affected their lives. One hundred and eleven different aspects were identified; 10 questions were composed to cover these aspects, using a structure similar to the Adult Dermatology Life Quality Index. This draft questionnaire was piloted on two series, totalling 40 children, and minor alterations were made to improve clarity. The Children's Dermatology Life Quality Index (CDLQI) questionnaire (maximum score 30) was then given to a further 233 dermatology paediatric out-patients (CDLQI mean = 5.1, SD = 4.9), 47 normal controls (mean 0.4, 0.7) and 55 control patients attending a general paediatric clinic (mean 0.7, 2.5). The CDLQI scores for eczema (mean = 7.7, 5.6, n = 47), psoriasis (5.4, 5.0, n = 25) and acne (5.7, 4.4, n = 40), were all highly significantly greater than for moles and naevi (2.3, 2.9, n = 29). The highest mean score was that for scabies (mean = 9.5, 10.5, n = 6). Overall, the highest scoring questions (each maximum score 3) related to symptoms (mean = 1.05, n = 233), feelings (0.90), swimming and sports (0.51), sleep (0.49) and treatment effects (0.47), with the question on effects on friendships (0.18) scoring least. Forty-six additional patients completed the CDLQI on two occasions, with a 4-day interval to check reliability of test-retesting. The standard deviation of the differences between pairs (2.5) was substantially less than the standard deviation of the measurements themselves (before = 4.79, after = 5.08). confirming acceptable repeatability. This study has confirmed the major impact of widespread inflammatory skin disease, in particular atopic eczema, on the quality of life of children. Although further validation is required, the CLDQI provides a new technique for comparative purposes.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether more timely cancer diagnosis brings favourable outcomes, with much of the previous evidence, in some cancers, being equivocal. We set out to determine whether there is an association between time to diagnosis, treatment and clinical outcomes, across all cancers for symptomatic presentations. METHODS: Systematic review of the literature and narrative synthesis. RESULTS: We included 177 articles reporting 209 studies. These studies varied in study design, the time intervals assessed and the outcomes reported. Study quality was variable, with a small number of higher-quality studies. Heterogeneity precluded definitive findings. The cancers with more reports of an association between shorter times to diagnosis and more favourable outcomes were breast, colorectal, head and neck, testicular and melanoma. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first review encompassing many cancer types, and we have demonstrated those cancers in which more evidence of an association between shorter times to diagnosis and more favourable outcomes exists, and where it is lacking. We believe that it is reasonable to assume that efforts to expedite the diagnosis of symptomatic cancer are likely to have benefits for patients in terms of improved survival, earlier-stage diagnosis and improved quality of life, although these benefits vary between cancers.

The effects of introducing Modified Early Warning scores to identify medical patients at risk of catastrophic deterioration have not been examined. We prospectively studied 1695 acute medical admissions. All patients were scored in the admissions unit. Patients with a Modified Early Warning score > 4 were referred for urgent medical and critical care outreach team review. Data was compared with an observational study performed in the same unit during the proceeding year. There was no change in mortality of patients with low, intermediate or high Modified Early Warning scores. Rates of cardio-pulmonary arrest, intensive care unit or high dependency unit admission were similar. Data analysis confirmed respiratory rate as the best discriminator in identifying high-risk patient groups. The therapeutic interventions performed in response to abnormal scores were not assessed. We are convinced that the Modified Early Warning score is a suitable scoring tool to identify patients at risk. However, outcomes in medical emergency admissions are influenced by a multitude of factors and so it may be difficult to demonstrate the score's benefit without further standardizing the response to abnormal values.

Little information is available about the effect of childhood atopic dermatitis (AD) on family function. The aim of this study was to identify the areas of family life most affected and their perceived importance. Intensive qualitative interviews with 34 families were conducted and 11 basic problem areas were identified. A detailed questionnaire was prepared, part of which addressed the perceived importance of particular issues using the framework of multi-attribute utility theory. The results from using this questionnaire in 41 families were analysed and a shorter 10-question one-page Dermatitis Family Impact (DFI) questionnaire designed (maximum score = 30). In affected families the mean DFI score was 9.6 +/- 7.0 (range 0-27, n = 56) and in unaffected families the mean score was 0.4 +/- 0.9 (range 0-3, n = 26, P < 0.0001). The DFI could potentially be used as an extra measure in clinical studies, or to help guide appropriate management of AD.

OBJECTIVE: The main hypothesis was that subtle vitamin B12 deficiencies occur more commonly in senile dementia of Alzheimer type (SDAT) that in healthy elderly individuals, and may be revealed by elevated total serum homocysteine (tHcy). A subsidiary hypothesis was that such deficiencies would be nutritionally independent as determined by retinol binding protein (RBP). DESIGN: A prospective case-controlled survey. SETTING: A Welsh urban psychogeriatric assessment centre and local general practice. PATIENTS: Thirty patients, aged 65 or over, seen consecutively in 1994 with features compatible with DSM-III-R criteria for primary degenerative dementia of Alzheimer type and 30 cognitively intact age-matched control subjects. MEASURES: Diagnosis was assessed using the CAMDEX. Cognitive scores were evaluated with the CAMCOG scale for patients and MMSE scores for control subjects. THcy was measured using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and RBP assayed by a radial immunodiffusion method. RESULTS: Patients had a highly significant elevation of tHcy compared with control (p < 0.0001). Multiple regression highlighted the interrelated effects of tHcy and total serum cobalamin on cognitive scores. RBP did not differ between groups. Macrocytosis was absent, and neutrophil hypersegmentation uncommon, in hyperhomocysteinaemic patients. CONCLUSIONS: SDAT patients have significantly elevated tHcy. This is independent of RBP determined nutritional status. 'Classical' haematological changes of cobalamin or folate deficiency are poor predictors of tHcy in these patients. Aberrant cobalamin tissue delivery appears to contribute to SDAT cognitive decline. Relative contributions of other tHcy determinants require further investigation.

BACKGROUND: Bile acid toxicity has been shown in the gastric, colonic, and hepatic tissues; the effect on oesophageal mucosa is less well known. AIMS: To determine the spectrum of bile acids refluxing in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease and its relation to oesophageal pH using a new technique of combined oesophageal aspiration and pH monitoring. METHODS: Ten asymptomatic subjects and 30 patients with symptoms of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (minimal mucosal injury, erosive oesophagitis (grade 2 or 3 Savary-Miller), Barrett's oesophagus/stricture; n=10 in each group) underwent 15 hour continuous oesophageal aspiration with simultaneous pH monitoring. Bile acid assay of the oesophageal samples was performed using modified high performance liquid chromatography. RESULTS: The peak bile acid concentration and DeMeester acid scores were significantly higher in the patients with oesophagitis (median bile acid concentration 124 micromol/l; acid score 20.2) and Barrett's oesophagus/stricture (181 micromol/l; 43. 3) than patients with minimal injury (14 micromol/l; 12.5) or controls (0 micromol/l; 11.1). The predominant bile acids detected were cholic, taurocholic, and glycocholic acids but there was a significantly greater proportion of secondary bile acids, deoxycholic and taurodeoxycholic acids, in patients with erosive oesophagitis and Barrett's oesophagus/stricture. Although bile acid reflux episodes occurred at variable pH, a temporal relation existed between reflux of taurine conjugates and oesophageal acid exposure (r=0.58, p=0.009). CONCLUSION: Toxic secondary bile acid fractions have been detected in patients with extensive mucosal damage. Mixed reflux is more harmful than acid reflux alone with possible toxic synergism existing between the taurine conjugates and acid.

The European APD Outcome Study (EAPOS) is a 2-yr, prospective, multicenter study of the feasibility and clinical outcomes of automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) in anuric patients. A total of 177 patients were enrolled with a median age of 54 yr (range, 21 to 91 yr). Previous median total time on dialysis was 38 mo (range, 1.6 to 259 mo), and 36% of patients had previously been on hemodialysis for >90 d. Diabetes and cardiovascular disease were present in 17% and 46% of patients, respectively. The APD prescription was adjusted at physician discretion to aim for creatinine clearance (Ccrea) >/=60 L/wk per 1.73 m(2) and ultrafiltration (UF) >/=750 ml/24 h during the first 6 mo. Baseline solute transport status (D/P) was determined by peritoneal equilibration test. At 1 yr, 78% and 74% achieved Ccrea and UF targets, respectively; median drained dialysate volume was 16.2 L/24 h with 50% of patients using icodextrin. Baseline D/P was not related to UF achieved at 1 yr. At 2 yr, patient survival was 78% and technique survival was 62%. Baseline predictors of poor survival were age (>65 yr; P = 0.006), nutritional status (Subjective Global Assessment grade C; P = 0.009), diabetic status (P = 0.008), and UF (<750 ml/24 h; P = 0.047). Time-averaged analyses showed that age, Subjective Global Assessment grade C and diabetic status predicted patient survival with UF the next most significant variable (risk ratio, 0.5/L per d; P = 0.097). Baseline Ccrea, time-averaged Ccrea, and baseline D/P had no effect on patient or technique survival. This study shows that anuric patients can successfully use APD. Baseline UF, not Ccrea or membrane permeability, is associated with patient survival.

after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes-including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)-in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist.

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Background: Despite the epidemic of cardiovascular disease and the benefits of cardiac rehabilitation (CR), availability is known to be insufficient, although this is not quantified. This study ascertained CR availability, volumes and its drivers, and density. Methods: A survey was administered to CR programs globally. Cardiac associations and local champions facilitated program identification. Factors associated with volumes were assessed using generalized linear mixed models, and compared by World Health Organization region. Density (i.e. annual ischemic heart disease [IHD] incidence estimate from Global Burden of Disease study divided by national CR capacity) was computed. Findings: CR was available in 111/203 (54.7%) countries; data were collected in 93 (83.8% country response; N = 1082 surveys, 32.1% program response rate). Availability by region ranged from 80.7% of countries in Europe, to 17.0% in Africa (p b .001). There were 5753 programs globally that could serve 1,655,083 patients/year, despite an estimated 20,279,651 incident IHD cases globally/year. Volume was significantly greater where patients were systematically referred (odds ratio [OR] = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.35-1.38) and programs offered alternative models (OR = 1.05, 95%CI = 1.04-1.06), and significantly lower with private (OR = .92, 95%CI = .91-.93) or public (OR = .83, 95%CI = .82-84) funding compared to hybrid sources. Median capacity (i.e., number of patients a program could serve annually) was 246/program (Q25-Q75 = 150-390). The absolute density was one CR spot per 11 IHD cases in countries with CR, and 12 globally. Interpretation: CR is available in only half of countries globally. Where offered, capacity is grossly insufficient, such that most patients will not derive the benefits associated with participation.

Serum homocysteine is increased, and correlates inversely with cognitive scores, in Alzheimer's disease (AD), vascular dementia and "age-associated memory impairment". Elevated levels might signal accelerated cognitive decline, although this remains to be established. We therefore repeated Mini-Mental State Examinations, together with additional ADAS-Cog assessments, in 32 healthy elderly individuals to determine whether prior homocysteine levels predicted cognitive changes over a 5-year period. Homocysteine predicted follow-up cognitive scores and rate of decline in cognitive performance independently of age, sex, education, renal function, vitamin B status, smoking and hypertension (p < 0.001). Homocysteine predicted word recall (p = 0.01), orientation (p = 0.02) and constructional praxis scores (p < 0.0001). One subject, with the second highest initial homocysteine, had developed probable AD at follow-up. Fasting total serum homocysteine appears to be an independent predictor of cognitive decline in healthy elderly and exerts a maximal effect on spatial copying skills.

Abstract Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown 1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations 2 . Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group 3 . Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling ( JAK1 ), monocyte–macrophage activation and endothelial permeability ( PDE4A ), immunometabolism ( SLC2A5 and AK5 ), and host factors required for viral entry and replication ( TMPRSS2 and RAB2A ).

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the treatment of delusional parasitosis with typical and atypical antipsychotics. AIMS: To evaluate the effectiveness of typical and atypical antipsychotics in primary delusional parasitosis (delusional disorder, somatic type). METHOD: A systematic review was conducted. RESULTS: No randomised trials were found and hence we collected the best evidence from 16 other trials and case reports, separating primary from other forms of delusional parasitosis. Studies using typical antipsychotics showed partial or full remission in between 60 and 100% of patients. Analysis of selected patients with primary delusional parasitosis showed that typical and atypical antipsychotics were effective in the majority, but that remission rates did not differ significantly between typical and atypical antipsychotics. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of controlled trials there is limited evidence that antipsychotics are effective in primary delusional parasitosis. Rigorous studies are needed to evaluate their effectiveness and to compare typical and atypical antipsychotics directly.

OBJECTIVE: An elevated acute-phase response is associated with increased radiologic damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but development of damage in previously normal joints ("new joint involvement") has not previously been investigated. This study was undertaken to investigate the hypothesis that when there is suppression of disease activity as judged by the C-reactive protein level, new joint involvement is reduced to a greater extent than is progression in already damaged joints ("damaged joint progression"). METHODS: Three hundred fifty-nine patients with active RA were studied as part of a 5-year randomized, prospective, open-label study of disease-modifying antirheumatic drug therapy. Time-averaged CRP was calculated from samples obtained every 6 months, and patients were divided into groups with CRP values of <6, 6-<12, 12-<25, and > or =25 mg/liter. Radiographs of the hands and feet were scored by the Larsen method; a damaged joint was defined as one with a score of > or =2. RESULTS: The rank correlation between time-integrated CRP and increase in Larsen score was 0.50; the correlation increased to 0.59 for patients entering the study with disease duration of < or =2 years. The percentage of new joint involvement over 5 years varied markedly with time-integrated CRP, from 7.3% in the CRP <6 mg/liter group to 39.1% in the CRP > or =25 mg/liter group (5.4-fold increase). The percentage of damaged joint progression increased from 26.1% in the CRP <6 mg/liter group to 41.6% in the CRP > or =25 mg/liter group (1.6-fold increase). CONCLUSION: The results of this study provide further confirmation that high CRP levels over time are associated with greater radiologic progression. Although radiologic progression still occurred in both previously normal and damaged joints despite the presence of normal CRP levels, this consisted of proportionately less new joint involvement compared with damaged joint progression. These findings support the idea that disease-suppressive therapy should be instituted at an early stage in patients with RA, before erosive damage has occurred.

The mortality and morbidity of 151 elderly patients (greater than 64 years of age) undergoing biliary surgery for benign disease were prospectively studied. The overall mortality was 3.3 per cent. This comprised a 0.77 per cent mortality in the elective group and a 19 per cent mortality in the emergency group. In spite of 77 per cent of the emergency group having a gangrenous gallbladder, a complication difficult to predict preoperatively, the majority of deaths were from cardiovascular disease. The overall incidence of common bile duct exploration was 36 per cent, which was similar in the elective and emergency groups. A comparison between the old (65-74 years) and the aged (over 74 years of age) revealed twice the number of emergency cases in the aged. Considering elective biliary surgery, there was no difference between the mortality, morbidity, or common bile duct exploration rate comparing the old with the aged. This suggests that elective biliary surgery is safe even in the aged.

BACKGROUND: Scoring systems that weigh the degree of abnormality of bedside observations might be able to identify patients at risk of catastrophic deterioration. OBJECTIVES: To establish a frequency distribution for typical physiological scoring systems and to establish the potential benefit of adding these to an existing triage system in accident and emergency departments. METHODS: Physiological data were collected from 53 unselected emergency department admissions, from 50 patients admitted from the emergency department to intensive care, and from 50 patients admitted from emergency department to general wards and then to intensive care. Three different physiological scores were calculated from the data. Identification of sick patients by the scores was compared with triage information from the Manchester Triage System (MTS). RESULTS: Most patients admitted to the emergency department would not be identified as critically ill with the aid of physiological scoring systems. This was true even for patients who were admitted to intensive care. Only in 0-8% of unselected patients did the scores indicate increased risk. In 100 patients admitted to the intensive care, adding of medical emergency team call-out criteria, Modified Early Warning Score or Assessment Score for Sick patient Identification and Step-up in Treatment would identify none, seven or one patient in addition to those triaged as orange and red by the MTS. CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of a physiological scoring system would have identified only a small number of additional patients as critically ill and added little to the triage system currently in use.

This review examines broad issues of concern regarding the primary/secondary care interface. The main purpose was to identify areas of good practice which could be adapted for more general use. One of the most fundamental aspects identified was communication, which is discussed in some detail. Also covered are shared prescribing and disease management. The data suggest that the most effective system(s) of shared care has yet to be established. Further qualitative and economic evaluations are required, taking into account patient preferences. Although the literature does describe certain practice exemplars, it is clear that inter- and intra-professional communication continues to be a problem. Whilst information technology may provide some of the solutions, it is concluded that a culture change, which compels health professionals to make sharing of patient information a much higher priority, is required.