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Journal article

Error in Enumerable Sequence Prediction

N. Hay

DROPS (Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz Center for Informatics)1 Jan 2006Open access

Abstract

We outline a method for quantifying the error of a sequence prediction. With sequence predictions represented by semimeasures $ u(x)$ we define their error to be $-log_2 u(x)$. We note that enumerable semimeasures are those which model the sequence as the output of a computable system given unknown input. Using this we define the simulation complexity of a computable system $C$ relative to another $U$ giving an emph{exact} bound on their difference in error. This error in turn gives an exact upper bound on the number of predictions $ u$ gets incorrect.

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Published
1 Jan 2006
Publisher
Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz Center for Informatics
Issue
Pages 0
Language
EN

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