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Binary Conditional Forecasts

Published • Jan 1, 2019
NobleIDNI2P712W479R101S618
Authors:
Michael W. McCracken
,
Joseph McGillicuddy
,
Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables.In this paper, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and implementation o...

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