CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

In patients with stable CAD, PCI can be considered a valuable initial mode of revascularization in all patients with objective large ischaemia in the presence of almost every lesion subset, with only one exception: chronic total occlusions that cannot be crossed. In early studies, there was a small survival advantage with CABG surgery compared with PCI without stenting. The addition of stents and newer adjunctive medications improved the outcome for PCI. The decision to recommend PCI or CABG surgery will be guided by technical improvements in cardiology or surgery, local expertise, and patients' preference. However, until proved otherwise, PCI should be used only with reservation in diabetics with multi-vessel disease and in patients with unprotected left main stenosis. The use of drug-eluting stents might change this situation. Patients presenting with NSTE-ACS (UA or NSTEMI) have to be stratified first for their risk of acute thrombotic complications. A clear benefit from early angiography (<48 h) and, when needed, PCI or CABG surgery has been reported only in the high-risk groups. Deferral of intervention does not improve outcome. Routine stenting is recommended on the basis of the predictability of the result and its immediate safety. In patients with STEMI, primary PCI should be the treatment of choice in patients presenting in a hospital with PCI facility and an experienced team. Patients with contra-indications to thrombolysis should be immediately transferred for primary PCI, because this might be their only chance for quickly opening the coronary artery. In cardiogenic shock, emergency PCI for complete revascularization may be life-saving and should be considered at an early stage. Compared with thrombolysis, randomized trials that transferred the patients for primary PCI to a 'heart attack centre' observed a better clinical outcome, despite transport times leading to a significantly longer delay between randomization and start of the treatment. The superiority of primary PCI over thrombolysis seems to be especially clinically relevant for the time interval between 3 and 12 h after onset of chest pain or other symptoms on the basis of its superior preservation of myocardium. Furthermore, with increasing time to presentation, major-adverse-cardiac-event rates increase after thrombolysis, but appear to remain relatively stable after primary PCI. Within the first 3 h after onset of chest pain or other symptoms, both reperfusion strategies seem equally effective in reducing infarct size and mortality. Therefore, thrombolysis is still a viable alternative to primary PCI, if it can be delivered within 3 h after onset of chest pain or other symptoms. Primary PCI compared with thrombolysis significantly reduced stroke. Overall, we prefer primary PCI over thrombolysis in the first 3 h of chest pain to prevent stroke, and in patients presenting 3-12 h after the onset of chest pain, to salvage myocardium and also to prevent stroke. At the moment, there is no evidence to recommend facilitated PCI. Rescue PCI is recommended, if thrombolysis failed within 45-60 min after starting the administration. After successful thrombolysis, the use of routine coronary angiography within 24 h and PCI, if applicable, is recommended even in asymptomatic patients without demonstrable ischaemia to improve patients' outcome. If a PCI centre is not available within 24 h, patients who have received successful thrombolysis with evidence of spontaneous or inducible ischaemia before discharge should be referred to coronary angiography and revascularized accordingly--independent of 'maximal' medical therapy.

This paper explores the interface between personality psychology and economics. We examine the predictive power of personality, and the stability of personality traits over the life cycle. We develop simple analytical frameworks for interpreting the evidence in personality psychology and suggest promising avenues for future research.

This paper reviews the empirical literature on the impact of company taxes on the allocation of foreign direct investment. We compare the outcomes of 25 empirical studies by computing the tax rate elasticity under a uniform definition. The median value of the tax rate elasticity in the literature is around -3.3 (i.e. a 1%-point reduction in the host-country tax rate raises foreign direct investment in that country by 3.3%). There exists substantial variation across studies, however. By performing a meta-analysis, the paper aims to explain this variation by the differences in characteristics of the underlying studies. Systematic differences between studies are found with respect to the type of foreign capital data used, and the type of tax rates adopted. We find no systematic differences in the responsiveness of investors from tax credit countries and tax exemption countries.

SUMMARY Structural Funds are the most intensively used policy instrument by the European Union to promote economic growth in its member states and to speed up the process of convergence. This paper empirically explores the effectiveness of European Structural Funds by means of a panel data analysis for 13 countries in the European Union. We show that – on average – Structural Funds are ineffective. For countries with a ‘proper’ institutional framework, however, Structural Funds are effective. The latter result is obtained for a wide range of conditioning variables, such as openness, institutional quality, corruption and indicators for good governance. It is robust to a wide range of robustness tests.

This paper explores the interface between personality psychology and economics. We examine the predictive power of personality and the stability of personality traits over the life cycle. We develop simple analytical frameworks for interpreting the evidence in personality psychology and suggest promising avenues for future research.

Competitive pressure: the effects on investments in product

This paper explores the interface between personality psychology and economics. We examine the predictive power of personality and the stability of personality traits over the life cycle. We develop simple analytical frameworks for interpreting the evidence in personality psychology and suggest promising avenues for future research.

SUMMARY We estimate the impulse response function (IRF) of GDP to a banking crisis using an extension of the local projections method. We demonstrate that, though robust to misspecifications of the data‐generating process, this method suffers from a hitherto unnoticed bias which increases with the forecast horizon. We propose a correction to this bias and show through simulations that it works well. Applying our corrected local projections estimator to the data from a panel of 99 countries observed between 1974 and 2001, we find that an average banking crisis yields a GDP loss of just under 10% in 10 years, with little sign of recovery. Like the original local projections method, our extension of it is widely applicable. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

This article analyses the impact of loan market competition on the interest rates applied by euro area banks to loans during the period 1994–2004, using a novel measure of competition called the Boone indicator. We find evidence that stronger competition implies significantly lower spreads between bank and market interest rates for most loan market products, in line with expectations. This result implies that stronger competition causes both lower bank interest rates and a stronger pass-through of market rate changes into bank rates. Evidence of the latter is also presented by our Error Correction Model (ECM) for bank rates. Further, banks compensate income losses from increased loan market competition by offering lower deposit rates. Our findings with respect to the loan market rates have important monetary policy implications, as they suggest that measures to promote competition in the European banking sector are likely to render the monetary policy transmission mechanism more effective.

This article is the first that applies a new measure of competition, the Boone indicator, to the banking industry. This approach is able to measure competition of bank market segments, such as the loan market, whereas many well-known measures of competition can consider the entire banking market only. Like most other model-based measures, this approach ignores differences in bank product quality and design, as well as the attractiveness of innovations. We measure competition on the lending markets in the five major EU countries as well as, for comparison, the UK, the US and Japan. Our findings indicate that over the period 1994–2004 the US had the most competitive loan market, whereas overall loan markets in Germany and Spain were among the best competitive in the EU. The Netherlands occupied a more intermediate position, whereas in Italy competition declined significantly over time. The French, Japanese and UK loan markets were generally less competitive.

The Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC reports that greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by about 30–50% in 2030 at costs below 100 US$/tCO2 based on an assessment of both bottom-up and top-down studies. Here, we have looked in more detail into the outcomes of specific models and also analyzed the economic potentials at the sectoral and regional level. At the aggregated level, the findings of the IPCC report are confirmed. However, substantial differences are found at the sectoral level. At the same time, there seems to be no systematic difference in the reduction potential reported by top-down and bottom-up approaches. The largest reduction potential as a response to carbon prices exists in the energy supply sector. Reduction potential in the building sector may carry relatively low costs. Although uncertainties are considerable, the modeling results and the bottom-up analyses all suggest that at the global level around 50% of greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced at carbon price (costs) below 100$/tCO2-eq—but with a wide range of 30–60%. At a carbon price (costs) less than 20$/tCO2-eq, still 10–35% of emissions may be abated. The variation of results is higher at low carbon-price levels than at high levels.

One consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting East Asia with Europe. This represents a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and average transportation days compared to the conventional Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of opening this route in a multi‐sector Eaton–Kortum model with intermediate linkages. We find remarkable shifts in trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic and a substantial drop in Suez traffic. Projected shifts in trade also imply substantial pressure on an already threatened Arctic ecosystem.

This paper performs a meta-analysis of empirical estimates of uncompensated labour supply elasticities. For the Netherlands, we find that an elasticity of 0.5 for women and 0.1 for men is a good reflection of what the literature reveals. The elasticity for men hardly differs between countries, but for women some cross-country variation is found. The increasing participation rate of women may lead to a somewhat lower elasticity in the future. Both the specification of the hours function and the estimation method are found to affect elasticity estimates.

This study explores a situation of staged accession to a global climate policy regime from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition – the EU or the EU and China – embarks on immediate ambitious climate action while the rest of the world makes a transition to a global climate regime between 2030 and 2050. We assume that the ensuing regime involves strong mitigation efforts but does not require late joiners to compensate for their initially higher emissions. Thus, climate targets are relaxed, and although staged accession can achieve significant reductions of global warming, the resulting climate outcome is unlikely to be consistent with the goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees. The addition of China to the front runner coalition can reduce pre-2050 excess emissions by 20–30%, increasing the likelihood of staying below 2 degrees. Not accounting for potential co-benefits, the cost of front runner action is found to be lower for the EU than for China. Regions that delay their accession to the climate regime face a trade-off between reduced short term costs and higher transitional requirements due to larger carbon lock-ins and more rapidly increasing carbon prices during the accession period.

We study the relationship between sales assistant turnover and labor productivity in 325 stores of a large U.K. clothing retailer tracked over 1995–99. We find that the turnover-productivity relationship is contingent on type of work system. For a large group of part-timers, managed under a “secondary” work system, the relationship clearly has an inverted U-shape, but for the smaller group of full-timers, managed under a “commitment” system, the relationship is the conventional negative one. Implications for the contingency view of the link between turnover and productivity are discussed.

The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes: Comment by Clemens J. M. Kool and Alex Lammertsma. Published in volume 90, issue 1, pages 312-315 of American Economic Review, March 2000

More than 92 genes encoding MYB transcription factors of the R2R3 class have been described in Arabidopsis. The functions of a few members of this large gene family have been described, indicating important roles for R2R3 MYB transcription factors in the regulation of secondary metabolism, cell shape, and disease resistance, and in responses to growth regulators and stresses. For the majority of the genes in this family, however, little functional information is available. As the first step to characterizing these genes functionally, the sequences of >90 family members, and the map positions and expression profiles of >60 members, have been determined previously. An important second step in the functional analysis of the MYB family, through a process of reverse genetics that entails the isolation of insertion mutants, is described here. For this purpose, a variety of gene disruption resources has been used, including T-DNA-insertion populations and three distinct populations that harbor transposon insertions. We report the isolation of 47 insertions into 36 distinct MYB genes by screening a total of 73 genes. These defined insertion lines will provide the foundation for subsequent detailed functional analyses for the assignment of specific functions to individual members of the R2R3 MYB gene family.

Corporate tax, Personal tax, Incorporation, Income shifting, H25, L26,

The lack of available prices in the Dutch life insurance industry makes competition an elusive concept that defies direct observation. Therefore, this article investigates competition by analysing several factors which may affect the competitive nature of a market and various indirect measurement approaches. After discussing various supply and demand factors which may constitute a so-called tight oligopoly, we establish the existence of scale economies and the importance of cost X-inefficiency, since severe competition would force firms to exploit available scale economies and to reduce X-inefficiencies. Both scale economies and X-inefficiencies turn out to be substantial, although more or less comparable to those found for insurers in other countries and to other financial institutions. Further, we apply the Boone indicator, a novel approach to measuring the effects of competition. This indicator points to limited competition in comparison to other sectors in the Netherlands. Further investigations of submarkets should reveal where policy measures in order to promote competition might be appropriate.

The COS method for pricing European and Bermudan options with one underlying asset was developed in [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 31 (2008), pp. 826--848] and [F. Fang and C. W. Oosterlee, Numer. Math., 114 (2009), pp. 27--62]. In this paper, we extend the method to higher dimensions, with a multidimensional asset price process. The algorithm can be applied to, for example, pricing two-color rainbow options but also to pricing under the popular Heston stochastic volatility model. For smooth density functions, the resulting method converges exponentially in the number of terms in the Fourier cosine series summations; otherwise we achieve algebraic convergence. The use of an FFT algorithm, for asset prices modeled by Lévy processes, makes the algorithm highly efficient. We perform extensive numerical experiments.