Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy

Quantified global scenarios and projections are used to assess long-term future global food security under a range of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Here, we conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to assess the range of future global food security projections to 2050. We reviewed 57 global food security projection and quantitative scenario studies that have been published in the past two decades and discussed the methods, underlying drivers, indicators and projections. Across five representative scenarios that span divergent but plausible socio-economic futures, the total global food demand is expected to increase by 35% to 56% between 2010 and 2050, while population at risk of hunger is expected to change by −91% to +8% over the same period. If climate change is taken into account, the ranges change slightly (+30% to +62% for total food demand and −91% to +30% for population at risk of hunger) but with no statistical differences overall. The results of our review can be used to benchmark new global food security projections and quantitative scenario studies and inform policy analysis and the public debate on the future of food. Across 57 global food security projection and quantitative scenario studies that have been published in the past two decades, the total global food demand is expected to rise from +35% to +56% between 2010 and 2050, and the population at risk of hunger is expected to change by −91% to +8%. Both ranges are substantially lower than previous projections.

Antarctic krill <i>Euphausia superba</i> (hereafter ‘krill’) occur in regions undergoing rapid environmental change, particularly loss of winter sea ice. During recent years, harvesting of krill has increased, possibly enhancing stress on krill and Antarctic ecosystems. Here we review the overall impact of climate change on krill and Antarctic ecosystems, discuss implications for an ecosystem-based fisheries management approach and identify critical knowledge gaps. Sea ice decline, ocean warming and other environmental stressors act in concert to modify the abundance, distribution and life cycle of krill. Although some of these changes can have positive effects on krill, their cumulative impact is most likely negative. Recruitment, driven largely by the winter survival of larval krill, is probably the population parameter most susceptible to climate change. Predicting changes to krill populations is urgent, because they will seriously impact Antarctic ecosystems. Such predictions, however, are complicated by an intense inter-annual variability in recruitment success and krill abundance. To improve the responsiveness of the ecosystem-based management approach adopted by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), critical knowledge gaps need to be filled. In addition to a better understanding of the factors influencing recruitment, management will require a better understanding of the resilience and the genetic plasticity of krill life stages, and a quantitative understanding of under-ice and benthic habitat use. Current precautionary management measures of CCAMLR should be maintained until a better understanding of these processes has been achieved.

Evidence shows the importance of food systems for sustainable development: they are at the nexus that links food security, nutrition, and human health, the viability of ecosystems, climate change, and social justice. However, agricultural policies tend to focus on food supply, and sometimes, on mechanisms to address negative externalities. We propose an alternative. Our starting point is that agriculture and food systems' policies should be aligned to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This calls for deep changes in comparison with the paradigms that prevailed when steering the agricultural change in the XXth century. We identify the comprehensive food systems transformation that is needed. It has four parts: first, food systems should enable all people to benefit from nutritious and healthy food. Second, they should reflect sustainable agricultural production and food value chains. Third, they should mitigate climate change and build resilience. Fourth, they should encourage a renaissance of rural territories. The implementation of the transformation relies on (i) suitable metrics to aid decision-making, (ii) synergy of policies through convergence of local and global priorities, and (iii) enhancement of development approaches that focus on territories. We build on the work of the "Milano Group," an informal group of experts convened by the UN Secretary General in Milan in 2015. Backed by a literature review, what emerges is a strategic narrative linking climate, agriculture and food, and calling for a deep transformation of food systems at scale. This is critical for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement. The narrative highlights the needed consistency between global actions for sustainable development and numerous local-level innovations. It emphasizes the challenge of designing differentiated paths for food systems transformation responding to local and national expectations. Scientific and operational challenges are associated with the alignment and arbitration of local action within the context of global priorities.

Corporate taxes exert a variety of effects on business behaviour. A wealth of empirical evidence assesses the magnitude of these behavioural margins of taxation. This article offers an up-to-date review and aims to provide common ground by computing for each distortion the semi-elasticity of the corporate tax base. We pay particular attention to international investment where it is not a priori clear whether marginal investment decisions or discrete locations are more important. Using an extension of the meta analysis of De Mooij and Ederveen (2003), we explore the extent to which existing studies reveal differences in effect size between the intensive and extensive margins of international investment.

Use of antimicrobials in animals poses a potential risk for public health as it contributes to the selection and spread of antimicrobial resistance. Although knowledge of the negative consequences of extensive antimicrobial use in humans and animals accumulated over the decades, total therapeutic antimicrobial use in farm animals in the Netherlands doubled between 1990 and 2007. A series of facts and events formed a window of opportunity to reduce antimicrobial use in farm animals. The recent discovery of significant reservoirs of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and extended spectrum beta-lactamase-producing bacteria (ESBL) in farm animals, with potential public health implications, combined with an increasing lack of confidence of the public in intensive livestock industries, and discrepancy between the very low antimicrobial use in humans and high use in animals, resulted in intensive collaboration between the government, veterinary professional organizations and important stakeholders within the livestock sector. A combination of compulsory and voluntary actions with clear reduction goals resulted in a 56% reduction in antimicrobial use in farm animals in the Netherlands between 2007 and 2012 and aims at accomplishing a 70% reduction target in 2015. This article describes and analyses the processes and actions behind this transition from an abundant antimicrobial use in farm animals towards a more prudent application of antimicrobials in farm animals in the Netherlands.

The different types of drones can be differentiated in terms of the type (fixed-wing, multirotor, etc.), the degree of autonomy, the size and weight, and the power source. These specifications are important, for example for the drone’s cruising range, the maximum flight duration, and the loading capacity. Aside from the drone itself (i.e., the ‘platform’) various types of payloads can be distinguished, including freight (e.g., mail parcels, medicines, fire extinguishing material, flyers, etc.) and different types of sensors (e.g., cameras, sniffers, meteorological sensors, etc.). Applications of different payloads will be described. In order to perform a flight, drones have a need for (a certain amount of) wireless communication with a pilot on the ground. In addition, in most cases there is a need for communication with a payload, like a camera or a sensor. To allow this communication to take place frequency spectrum is required. The requirements for frequency spectrum depend on the type of drone, the flight characteristics, and the payload. Since frequency spectrum does not end at national borders, international coordination on the use of frequency spectrum is required. Legal issues on frequency spectrum usage and electronic equipment (national and international legal matters on frequency spectrum and equipment requirements) are discussed, as well as frequency spectrum and vulnerability (an insight in available frequency spectrum and associated risks in using the frequency spectrum) and surveillance and compliance (enforcement of frequency spectrum use, equipment requirements, and the need for international and European cooperation). Finally, future developments in drone technology are discussed. The trend is for drones to become smaller, lighter, more efficient, and cheaper. As a result, drones will become increasingly available to the public at large and will be used for an increasing range of purposes. Drones will become increasingly autonomous and also more capable of operating in swarms.

Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide (non-CO 2 ) emissions. Reaching the climate target of the Paris Agreement will require significant emission reductions across sectors by 2030 and continued efforts thereafter. Here we show that the economic potential of non-CO 2 emissions reductions from agriculture is up to four times as high as previously estimated. In fact, we find that agriculture could achieve already at a carbon price of 25 $/tCO 2 eq non-CO 2 reductions of around 1 GtCO 2 eq/year by 2030 mainly through the adoption of technical and structural mitigation options. At 100 $/tCO 2 eq agriculture could even provide non-CO 2 reductions of 2.6 GtCO 2 eq/year in 2050 including demand side efforts. Immediate action to favor the widespread adoption of technical options in developed countries together with productivity increases through structural changes in developing countries is needed to move agriculture on track with a 2 C climate stabilization pathway.

Abstract In contrast to the increasing aquaculture production of mussels worldwide, production in the European Union (EU) has shown a decreasing trend over the last two decades. Aquaculture production of mussels in the EU peaked in the late 1990s at more than 600 000 tonnes; by 2016, production volume had dropped by 20% to 480 000 tonnes. As mussel production represents more than ⅓ of EU aquaculture production, this decrease is an important contributor to the stagnation of EU aquaculture. Previous studies have suggested diseases, lack of mussel seed (spat), and low profitability as the main causes of the EU mussel production decrease. In this study, we investigate how economic and environmental factors have contributed. Moreover, we examine if the different mussel production techniques (raft, longline, on‐bottom, and ‘bouchot’) have been differently affected, by analysing the economic performance and cost structure evolution for the period 2010–2016. We complement these results with a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of the EU mussel sector based on expert knowledge.

This paper performs a meta-analysis of empirical estimates of uncompensated labour supply elasticities. For the Netherlands, we find that an elasticity of 0.5 for women and 0.1 for men is a good reflection of what the literature reveals. The elasticity for men hardly differs between countries, but for women some cross-country variation is found. The increasing participation rate of women may lead to a somewhat lower elasticity in the future. Both the specification of the hours function and the estimation method are found to affect elasticity estimates.

The absence of evidence in the scholarly literature for a tested long-term relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth is at odds with the importance attributed to entrepreneurship in the policy arena. The present paper addresses this absence, introducing entrepreneurship using four different and accepted models explaining the total factor productivity of twenty OECD countries with data for the period 1969–2010. Traditionally, entrepreneurship is not addressed in these models. We show that in all models—as well as a joint one—entrepreneurship has a significant influence while the remaining effects largely stay the same. Entrepreneurship is measured as the business ownership rate (number of business owners per workforce) corrected for the level of economic development (GDP per capita).

Anticipating the ethical impact of emerging technologies is an essential part of responsible innovation. One such emergent technology is the digital twin which we define here as a living replica of a physical system (human or non-human). A digital twin combines various emerging technologies such as AI, Internet of Things, big data and robotics, each component bringing its own socio-ethical issues to the resulting artefacts. The question thus arises which of these socio-ethical themes surface in the process and how they are perceived by stakeholders in the field. In this report we present the results of a qualitative study into the socio-ethical benefits and socio-ethical risks of using digital twins in healthcare. Employing insights from ethics of technology and the Quadruple Helix theory of innovation, we conducted desk research of white literature and 23 interviews with representatives from the four helixes: industry, research, policy and civil society. The ethical scan revealed several important areas where the digital twin can produce socio-ethical value (e.g., prevention and treatment of disease, cost reduction, patient autonomy and freedom, equal treatment) but also several important areas of socio-ethical risks (e.g., privacy and property of data, disruption of existing societal structures, inequality and injustice). We conclude with a reflection on the employed analytical tool and suggestions for further research.

We embed the innovation production function in a model that analyzes the impact of innovation output on manufacturing multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. We combine a market share model with a gross output production function. This revenue approach enables a ‘demand-shift’ interpretation of the contribution of innovation to MFP growth. We apply different sets of instrumental variables and different estimation methods to estimate simultaneously the returns from innovation investment to innovation output, the contribution of innovation output to productivity growth and the feedback link running from a firm’s overall sales performance to its innovation endeavor. We draw our empirical results from the second Community Innovation Survey (CIS-2) for the Netherlands. The estimation results from our model show that the impact of innovation differs between measures of firm performance, and that, in our data, the revenue function approach yields more sensible results for the contribution of innovation to MFP growth than the value-added production function framework. Furthermore, the results show that the estimation of return on innovation investment benefits from the inclusion of more information on the technological environment of the firm.

We report a widespread Usutu virus outbreak in birds in the Netherlands. Viral presence had been detected through targeted surveillance as early as April 2016 and increased mortality in common blackbirds and captive great grey owls was noticed from August 2016 onwards. Usutu virus infection was confirmed by post-mortem examination and RT-PCR. Extensive Usutu virus activity in the Netherlands in 2016 underlines the need to monitor mosquito activity and mosquito-borne infections in 2017 and beyond.

Abstract We estimate the impact of regulatory heterogeneity on agri‐food trade using a gravity analysis that relies on detailed data on non‐tariff measures (NTMs) collected by the NTM‐Impact project. The data cover a broad range of import requirements for agricultural and food products for the EU and nine of its major trade partners. We find that trade is significantly reduced when importing countries have stricter maximum residue limits (MRLs) for plant products than exporting countries. For most other measures, due to their qualitative nature, we were unable to infer whether the importer has stricter standards relative to the exporter, and we do not find a robust relationship between these measures and trade. Our findings suggest that, at least for some import standards, harmonising regulations will increase trade. We also conclude that tariff reductions remain an effective means to increase trade even when NTMs abound.

In July 2010, during routine mosquito surveillance inspections at companies that import used tires, three invasive species were found at five locations in the Netherlands: the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti), the Asian tiger mosquito (Ae. albopictus), and the American rock-pool mosquito (Ae. atropalpus). This is the first time that Ae. aegypti is reported from the Netherlands. Mosquito control was initiated one week after the first invasive mosquito was found, using adulticides and larvicides. The available data suggest that the implemented control measures have been effective for this season.

Water, energy, food, land and climate form a tightly-connected nexus in which actions on one sector impact other sectors, creating feedbacks and unanticipated consequences. This is especially because at present, much scientific research and many policies are constrained to single discipline/sector silos that are often not interacting (e.g., water-related research/policy). However, experimenting with the interaction and determining how a change in one sector could impact another may require unreasonable time frames, be very difficult in practice and may be potentially dangerous, triggering any one of a number of unanticipated side-effects. Current modelling often neglects knowledge from practice. Therefore, a safe environment is required to test the potential cross-sectoral implications of policy decisions in one sector on other sectors. Serious games offer such an environment by creating realistic ‘simulations’, where long-term impacts of policies may be tested and rated. This paper describes how the ongoing (2016–2020) Horizon2020 project SIM4NEXUS will develop serious games investigating potential plausible cross-nexus implications and synergies due to policy interventions for 12 multi-scale case studies ranging from regional to global. What sets these games apart is that stakeholders and partners are involved in all aspects of the modelling definition and process, from case study conceptualisation, quantitative model development including the implementation and validation of each serious game. Learning from playing a serious game is justified by adopting a proof-of-concept for a specific regional case study in Sardinia (Italy). The value of multi-stakeholder involvement is demonstrated, and critical lessons learned for serious game development in general are presented.

Various location specific attributes cause segmentation of the housing market into submarkets. The question is, whether the most relevant partitioning criteria are directly related to the transaction price or to other, socio-economic and physical, features of the location. On the empirical side, several methods have been proposed that might be able to capture this influence. This paper examines one of these methods: neural network modelling with an application to the housing market of Helsinki, Finland. The exercise shows how it is possible to identify various dimensions of housing submarket formation by uncovering patterns in the dataset, and also shows the classification abilities of two neural network techniques: the self-organising map (SOM) and the learning vector quantisation (LVQ). In Helsinki, submarket formation clearly depends on two factors: relative location and house type. Price-level clearly has a smaller role in this respect.

To sustainably contribute to food security of a growing and richer world population, livestock production systems are challenged to increase production levels while reducing environmental impact, being economically viable, and socially responsible. Knowledge about the sustainability performance of current livestock production systems may help to formulate strategies for future systems. Our study provides a systematic overview of differences between conventional and organic livestock production systems on a broad range of sustainability aspects and animal species available in peer-reviewed literature. Systems were compared on economy, productivity, environmental impact, animal welfare and public health. The review was limited to dairy cattle, beef cattle, pigs, broilers and laying hens, and to Europe, North America and New Zealand. Results per indicators are presented as in the articles without performing additional calculations. Out of 4171 initial search hits, 179 articles were analysed. Studies varied widely in indicators, research design, sample size and location and context. Quite some studies used small samples. No study analysed all aspects of sustainability simultaneously. Conventional systems had lower labour requirements per unit product, lower income risk per animal, higher production per animal per time unit, higher reproduction numbers, lower feed conversion ratio, lower land use, generally lower acidification and eutrophication potential per unit product, equal or better udder health for cows and equal or lower microbiological contamination. Organic systems had higher income per animal or full time employee, lower impact on biodiversity, lower eutrophication and acidification potential per unit land, equal or lower likelihood of antibiotic resistance in bacteria and higher beneficial fatty acid levels in cow milk. For most sustainability aspects, sometimes conventional and sometimes organic systems performed better, except for productivity, which was consistently higher in conventional systems. For many aspects and animal species, more data are needed to conclude on a difference between organic and conventional livestock production systems.

This article discusses the individual's choice to engage in informal care as an issue for economic evaluation. Traditional methods used in economic evaluation studies for valuing time spent on informal care are discussed and an alternative method is put forward that incorporates the quality of life of caregivers as an outcome measure to represent the effects on caregivers. The methodological issues concerning the valuation of informal caregivers' time are becoming more important as new drugs and other health care technologies are introduced for patients with diseases that are typically associated with informal care.

Steering the EU food system towards a sustainability transformation requires a vast and actionable knowledge base available to a range of public and private actors. Few have captured this complexity by assessing food systems from a multi-dimensional and multi-level perspective, which would include (1) nutrition and diet, environmental and economic outcomes together with social equity dimensions and (2) system interactions across country, EU and global scales. This paper addresses this gap in food systems research and science communication by providing an integrated analytical approach and new ways to communicate this complexity outside science. Based on a transdisciplinary science approach with continuous stakeholder input, the EU Horizon2020 project ‘Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food And Nutrition Security’ (SUSFANS) developed a five-step process: Creating a participatory space; designing a conceptual framework of the EU food system; developing food system performance metrics; designing a modelling toolbox and developing a visualization tool. The Sustainable Food and Nutrition-Visualizer, designed to communicate complex policy change-impacts and trade-off questions, enables an informed debate about trade-offs associated with options for change among food system actors as well as in the policy making arena. The discussion highlights points for further research related to indicator development, reach of assessment models, participatory processes and obstacles in science communication.