Department for Work and Pensions

Abstract In this article, we consider the evolution of the post‐age‐60 mortality curve in the United Kingdom and its impact on the pricing of the risk associated with aggregate mortality improvements over time: so‐called longevity risk. We introduce a two‐factor stochastic model for the development of this curve through time. The first factor affects mortality‐rate dynamics at all ages in the same way, whereas the second factor affects mortality‐rate dynamics at higher ages much more than at lower ages. The article then examines the pricing of longevity bonds with different terms to maturity referenced to different cohorts. We find that longevity risk over relatively short time horizons is very low, but at horizons in excess of ten years it begins to pick up very rapidly. A key component of the article is the proposal and development of a method for calculating the market risk‐adjusted price of a longevity bond. The proposed adjustment includes not just an allowance for the underlying stochastic mortality, but also makes an allowance for parameter risk. We utilize the pricing information contained in the November 2004 European Investment Bank longevity bond to make inferences about the likely market prices of the risks in the model. Based on these, we investigate how future issues might be priced to ensure an absence of arbitrage between bonds with different characteristics.

There has been an explosion of interest in mindfulness-based programs (MBPs) such as Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) and Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy. This is demonstrated in increased research, implementation of MBPs in healthcare, educational, criminal justice and workplace settings, and in mainstream interest. For the sustainable development of the field there is a need to articulate a definition of what an MBP is and what it is not. This paper provides a framework to define the essential characteristics of the family of MBPs originating from the parent program MBSR, and the processes which inform adaptations of MBPs for different populations or contexts. The framework addresses the essential characteristics of the program and of teacher. MBPs: are informed by theories and practices that draw from a confluence of contemplative traditions, science, and the major disciplines of medicine, psychology and education; underpinned by a model of human experience which addresses the causes of human distress and the pathways to relieving it; develop a new relationship with experience characterized by present moment focus, decentering and an approach orientation; catalyze the development of qualities such as joy, compassion, wisdom, equanimity and greater attentional, emotional and behavioral self-regulation, and engage participants in a sustained intensive training in mindfulness meditation practice, in an experiential inquiry-based learning process and in exercises to develop understanding. The paper's aim is to support clarity, which will in turn support the systematic development of MBP research, and the integrity of the field during the process of implementation in the mainstream.

TAIHU LAKE, CHINA-- In attempting to subdue a vicious algal bloom, scientists aim to restore the health of a major lake in China and hone strategies for heading off toxic soups elsewhere.

The leukotrienes C4, D4, and E4, previously referred to as slow reacting substance of anaphylaxis, elicited long-lasting contractions of bronchi isolated from two birch pollen-sensitive asthmatics. The leukotrienes were 1,000 times more potent on a molar basis than was histamine or prostaglandin F2 alpha. Moreover, allergen released leukotrienes C4, D4, and E4 from the lung tissue of the asthmatics in amounts that appeared to correlate well to the anaphylactic bronchial contraction. Irrespectively of whether the lung was stimulated with specific allergen, the ionophore A23187 or 14C-labeled arachidonic acid, 15-hydroxyicosatetraenoic acid, and other lipoxygenase-derived monohydroxy acids were the major metabolites of arachidonic acid in the lung, and thromboxane A2 and prostaglandin I2 were the predominant cyclooxygenase products identified. However, cyclooxygenase inhibition with indomethacin had no effect on the contraction response to antigen in the bronchi, whereas, in the presence of U-60257, an inhibitor of leukotriene biosynthesis, the allergen neither released leukotrienes from the lung nor caused bronchial contraction. These findings indicate that leukotrienes C4, D4, and E4 are major mediators of allergic bronchoconstriction in man.

A method is described which uses non-radioactive sodium chromate enriched with chromium-50 (50Cr) for the measure- ment of the red cell survival time. The chromium content of serial blood samples was measured by activation analysis and its rate of fall was used to calculate the T450Cr. There was good agreement between the Tj50Cr and the Tj51Cr, measured simultaneously. The method would allow simultaneous com- parison of the survival times of two different populations of red cells, using two erythrocyte labels which behaved identically. Other advantages and some disadvantages of the technique are discussed.

ABSTRACT This paper addresses the problem of longevity risk — the risk of uncertain aggregate mortality — and discusses the ways in which life assurers, annuity providers and pension plans can manage their exposure to this risk. In particular, it focuses on how they can use mortality-linked securities and over-the-counter contracts — some existing and others still hypothetical — to manage their longevity risk exposures. It provides a detailed analysis of two such securities — the Swiss Re mortality bond issued in December 2003 and the EIB/BNP longevity bond announced in November 2004. It then looks at the universe of hypothetical mortality-linked securities — other forms of longevity bonds, swaps, futures and options — and investigates their potential uses. It also addresses implementation issues, and draws lessons from the experiences of other derivative contracts. Particular attention is paid to the issues involved with the construction and use of mortality indices, the management of the associated credit risks, and possible barriers to the development of markets for these securities. It suggests that these implementation difficulties are essentially teething problems that will be resolved over time, and so leave the way open to the development of flourishing markets in a brand new class of securities.

In the first part of the paper, we consider the wide range of extrapolative stochastic mortality models that have been proposed over the last 15–20 years. A number of models that we consider are framed in discrete time and place emphasis on the statistical aspects of modelling and forecasting. We discuss how these models can be evaluated, compared and contrasted. We also discuss a discrete-time market model that facilitates valuation of mortality-linked contracts with embedded options. We then review several approaches to modelling mortality in continuous time. These models tend to be simpler in nature, but make it possible to examine the potential for dynamic hedging of mortality risk. Finally, we review a range of financial instruments (traded and over-the-counter) that could be used to hedge mortality risk. Some of these, such as mortality swaps, already exist, while others anticipate future developments in the market.

Recently, self-healing polymers based on disulfide compounds have gained attention due to the versatile chemistry of disulfide bonds and easy implementation into polymeric materials. However, the underlying mechanisms of disulfide exchange which induce the self-healing effect in poly(disulfide)s remain unclear. In this work, we elucidate the process of disulfide exchange using a variety of spectroscopic techniques. Comparing a model exchange reaction of 4-aminophenyl disulfide and diphenyl disulfide with modified reactions in the presence of additional radical traps or radical sources confirmed that the exchange reaction between disulfide compounds occurred via a radical-mediated mechanism. Furthermore, when investigating the effect of catalysts on the model exchange reaction, it could be concluded that catalysts enhance the disulfide exchange reaction through the formation of S-based anions in addition to the radical-mediated mechanism.

Additional information is available upon request. This report has been partially prepared by the Pension Advisory group, and not by any research department, of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries ("JPMorgan"). Information herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but JPMorgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute JPMorgan's judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the

OBJECTIVE: To develop an epidemiological basis for economic analyses of selective and universal antenatal screening strategies, and to apply it to the UK. METHODS: The prevalence of higher-risk women and the prevalence of undiagnosed infection within groups of high-risk and low-risk women was estimated from surveillance and survey data. The numbers of women tested and the numbers of infected women who would be identified by universal and selective strategies were then calculated under a range of assumptions about the identification of higher-risk women and acceptance of testing. RESULTS: In higher-risk women estimated prevalence of undiagnosed infection was between 0.06% and 2.8%, comparing well with independent estimates. In low-risk women, estimates ranged from 0.014% in London to 0.002% in the rest of the UK. If uptake among the high-risk women was the same in selective and universal strategies, universal testing would entail testing between 7100 (London) and 50000 (rest of England) additional women to detect an additional case. However, if selective screening identified only 60% of those at high risk and achieved only 60% acceptance compared with a universal programme, then universal screening would require only 1150 additional women to identify one additional case in London, compared to 6470 in Scotland and 13140 in the rest of the UK. CONCLUSIONS: Overall prevalence does not form an adequate basis for determining screening strategy. Instead, universal screening can be justified either because the prevalence of HIV in the low-risk group is sufficiently high, or because it achieves sufficiently higher uptake relative to selective screening among those at higher risk.

Abstract We discuss a number of quantile‐based risk measures (QBRMs) that have recently been developed in the financial risk and actuarial/insurance literatures. The measures considered include the Value‐at‐Risk (VaR), coherent risk measures, spectral risk measures, and distortion risk measures. We discuss and compare the properties of these different measures, and point out that the VaR is seriously flawed. We then discuss how QBRMs can be estimated, and discuss some of the many ways they might be applied to insurance risk problems. These applications are typically very complex, and this complexity means that the most appropriate estimation method will often be some form of stochastic simulation.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%-107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%-47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%-61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%-42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%-40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (-9%; -17% to -3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%-70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions. CONCLUSIONS: The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

ABSTRACT Using a unique data set, we document two secular trends in the shift from centralized to decentralized pension fund management over the past few decades. First, across asset classes, sponsors replace generalist balanced managers with better‐performing specialists. Second, within asset classes, funds replace single managers with multiple competing managers following diverse strategies to reduce scale diseconomies as funds grow larger relative to capital markets. Consistent with a model of decentralized management, sponsors implement risk controls that trade off higher anticipated alphas of multiple specialists against the increased difficulty in coordinating their risk‐taking and the greater uncertainty concerning their true skills.

Purpose This paper aims to explore the influence of flexible working on employee happiness and attitude, and the role of this within a high performance work system (HPWS). Design/methodology/approach A case study of flexible working within an NHS Acute Trust is presented. A qualitative study is undertaken based on 43 employee interviews across a range of directorates within the Trust. Findings Employees perceive that flexible working makes them “happy” and that there are attitudinal/behavioural links between this happiness, discretionary behaviour and a number of performance outcomes. Research limitations/implications This paper presents a single case study with a relatively small sample which uses an inductive approach based on emergent data; it explores one element of a HPWS rather than an entire employment system. Respondents were volunteers, which raises the possibility of sample bias. Practical implications There may be a need for organisations to focus more on employee happiness to encourage performance. HR practitioners could reflect on the impact of HR practices on happiness and which features of a job role are likely to promote happiness. Originality/value This paper contributes a much‐needed employee perspective on the effect of HR practices, specifically that of flexible working, and explores the neglected employee attitude of happiness.

Abstract One of the most important current issues in information technology (IT) and project management (PM) is the current trend toward offshore outsourcing of development projects. However, the benefits associated with outsourcing will not be achievable unless the risks are managed throughout the life cycle of these projects. This article provides a framework of risks associated with outsourced projects, and a process that can be used to develop a matrix of risks and controls appropriate for the project's objectives.

For many, the great American Dream is associated with large, single-family homes, lots of land, and a feeling of independence. Now, public health and urban planning professionals claim this vision has gone too far. They blame a phenomenon called sprawl for a host of problems, from obesity and traffic injuries to environmental destruction. A movement called Smart Growth is challenging the way we build, work, and live, and is encouraging us to look at communities not only as places to live but as vehicles to promote health and well-being.... Smart Growth strives to protect farmland and open space, revitalize neighborhoods, and provide more transportation choices. Smart Growth encourages reinvestment in existing communities, more efficient use of existing infrastructure, and transportation choices. It promotes compact development and the creation of mixed-use communities that integrate a range of housing and commercial services and serve a variety of income levels. However, a central theme in the Smart Growth movement is that of choice. Advocates stress that well-designed communities offer variety in housing, transportation, employment, and recreation. Within public health, a parallel movement called Active Living emphasizes such elements as bicycle- and pedestrian-oriented design, traffic calming, mixed-use development, and safe routes to school programs that allow residents to integrate physical activity such as walking and bicycling into their daily lives. Language: en

Recent flood risk management puts an increasing emphasis on the public's risk perception and its preferences. It is now widely recognized that a better knowledge of the public's awareness and concern about risks is of vital importance to outline effective risk communication strategies. Models such as Risk Information Seeking and Processing address this evolution by considering the public's needs and its information-seeking behavior with regard to risk information. This study builds upon earlier information-seeking models and focuses on the empirical relationships between information-seeking behavior and the constructs of risk perception, perceived hazard knowledge, response efficacy, and information need in the context of coastal flood risks. Specific focus is given to the mediating role of information need in the model and to the differences in information-seeking behavior between permanent and temporary residents. By means of a structured on-line questionnaire, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in the city of Ostend, one of the most vulnerable places to coastal flooding on the Belgian coast. Three hundred thirteen respondents participated in the survey. Path analysis reveals that information need does not act as a mediator in contrast to risk perception and perceived knowledge. In addition, it is shown that risk perception and perceived hazard knowledge are higher for permanent than temporary residents, leading to increased information-seeking behavior among the former group. Implications for risk communication are discussed.

The 11 September tragedy in the USA has provided a wake up call to remind businesses of the need for adequate disaster recovery and business continuity planning. A business continuity plan must be comprehensive and up to date. This paper outlines the key content of such a plan and the issues to be addressed in drawing one up to ensure it meets real business recovery needs. Continues the plan through to the actions needed to handle an actual emergency.

Abstract This paper describes the formulation of a new urban scheme, MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) for use in the Met Office Unified Model. The implementation of the new scheme ensures that (1) the new scheme offers more flexibility in the parametrization of the building properties, and hence provides a more realistic representation of the fluxes; (2) the bulk outputs are in satisfactory agreement with previous observational studies; and (3) the impact of the new scheme on the energy balance fluxes is similar to the impact of the current urban scheme when set up to mimic it. As well as having a better physical basis, MORUSES also gains in flexibility in applications and adaptations to different urban materials as well as urban planning. The new scheme represents the urban area as a composition of two tiles, a canyon and a roof, using a simple 2D geometry. Sensitivity analysis to canyon geometry and thickness of the roof canopy emphasizes the gain in flexibility captured by the new scheme. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

In this study, we report on the results of a trial of an intervention to improve five food hygiene behaviors among mothers of young children in rural Nepal. This novel intervention targeted five behaviors; cleanliness of serving utensils, handwashing with soap before feeding, proper storage of cooked food, and thorough reheating and water treatment. Based on formative research and a creative process using the Behavior-Centered Design approach, an innovative intervention package was designed and delivered over a period of 3 months. The intervention activities included local rallies, games, rewards, storytelling, drama, competitions linking with emotional drivers of behavior, and “kitchen makeovers” to disrupt behavior settings. The effect of the package on behavior was evaluated via a cluster-randomized before–after study in four villages with four villages serving as controls. The primary outcome was the difference in the mean cluster level proportions of mothers directly observed practicing all five food hygiene behaviors. The five targeted food hygiene behaviors were rare at baseline (composite performance of all five behaviors in intervention 1% [standard deviation (SD) = 2%] and in control groups 2% [SD = 2%]). Six weeks after the intervention, the target behaviors were more common in the intervention than in the control group (43% [SD = 14%] versus 2% [SD = 2%], P = 0.02) during follow-up. The intervention appeared to be equally effective in improving all five behaviors in all intervention clusters. This study shows that a theory-driven, systematic approach employing emotional motivators and modifying behavior settings was capable of substantially improving multiple food hygiene behaviors in Nepal.