Government of the United Kingdom

Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure sustainable and equitable food security, different components of which are explored here.

COVID-19 has prompted unprecedented government action around the world. We introduce the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), a dataset that addresses the need for continuously updated, readily usable and comparable information on policy measures. From 1 January 2020, the data capture government policies related to closure and containment, health and economic policy for more than 180 countries, plus several countries’ subnational jurisdictions. Policy responses are recorded on ordinal or continuous scales for 19 policy areas, capturing variation in degree of response. We present two motivating applications of the data, highlighting patterns in the timing of policy adoption and subsequent policy easing and reimposition, and illustrating how the data can be combined with behavioural and epidemiological indicators. This database enables researchers and policymakers to explore the empirical effects of policy responses on the spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths, as well as on economic and social welfare. The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) records data on 19 different government COVID-19 policy indicators for over 190 countries. Covering closure and containment, health and economics measures, it creates an evidence base for effective responses.

Abstract The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea‐surface temperature and sea‐ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time‐scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis. The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time‐varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6‐hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three‐day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half‐century of these surface‐based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper‐air and satellite data are equally encouraging. It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long‐term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non‐existent over the full period of record. The long‐term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

Abstract Survey experiments have become a central methodology across the social sciences. Researchers can combine experiments’ causal power with the generalizability of population-based samples. Yet, due to the expense of population-based samples, much research relies on convenience samples (e.g. students, online opt-in samples). The emergence of affordable, but non-representative online samples has reinvigorated debates about the external validity of experiments. We conduct two studies of how experimental treatment effects obtained from convenience samples compare to effects produced by population samples. In Study 1, we compare effect estimates from four different types of convenience samples and a population-based sample. In Study 2, we analyze treatment effects obtained from 20 experiments implemented on a population-based sample and Amazon's Mechanical Turk (MTurk). The results reveal considerable similarity between many treatment effects obtained from convenience and nationally representative population-based samples. While the results thus bolster confidence in the utility of convenience samples, we conclude with guidance for the use of a multitude of samples for advancing scientific knowledge.

Abstract To evaluate the effects of stratospheric geoengineering with sulphate aerosols, we propose standard forcing scenarios to be applied to multiple climate models to compare their results and determine the robustness of their responses. Thus far, different modeling groups have used different forcing scenarios for both global warming and geoengineering, complicating the comparison of results. We recommend four experiments to explore the extent to which geoengineering might offset climate change projected in some of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 experiments. These experiments focus on stratospheric aerosols, but future experiments under this framework may focus on different means of geoengineering. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown copyright

Abstract Release 2.5 of the International Comprehensive Ocean‐Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) is a major update (covering 1662–2007) of the world's most extensive surface marine meteorological data collection. Building on extensive national and international partnerships, many new and improved contributing datasets have been processed into a uniform format and combined with the previous Release 2.4. The new data range from early non‐instrumental ship observations to measurements initiated in the twentieth century from buoys and other automated platform types. Improvements to existing data include replacing preliminary Global Telecommunication System (GTS) receipts with more reliable, delayed mode reports for post‐1997 data, and in the processing and quality control (QC) of humidity observations. Over the entire period of record, spatial and temporal coverage has been enriched and data and metadata quality has been improved. Along with the observations, now updated monthly in near real time, Release 2.5 includes quality‐controlled monthly summary products for 2° latitude × 2° longitude (since 1800) and 1° × 1° boxes (since 1960), together with multiple options for access to the data and products. The measured and estimated data in Release 2.5 are subject to many technical changes, multiple archive sources, and historical events throughout the more than three‐century record. Some of these data characteristics are highlighted, including known unresolved errors and inhomogeneities, which may impact climate and other research applications. Anticipated future directions for ICOADS aim to continue adding scientific value to the observations, products, and metadata, as well as strengthen the cooperative enterprise through expanded linkages to international initiatives and organisations. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

de Ferranti, Sarah D.; de Boer, Ian H.; Fonseca, Vivian; Fox, Caroline S.; Golden, S. H.; Lavie, Carl J.; Magge, Sheela N.; Marx, Nikolaus; McGuire, Darren K.; Orchard, Trevor J.; Zinman, Bernard; Eckel, Robert H.

Abstract Results are presented from an intercomparison of single‐column and cloud‐resolving model simulations of a cold‐air outbreak mixed‐phase stratocumulus cloud observed during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) programme's Mixed‐Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment. The observed cloud occurred in a well‐mixed boundary layer with a cloud‐top temperature of − 15 °C. The average liquid water path of around 160 g m −2 was about two‐thirds of the adiabatic value and far greater than the average mass of ice which when integrated from the surface to cloud top was around 15 g m −2 . Simulations of 17 single‐column models (SCMs) and 9 cloud‐resolving models (CRMs) are compared. While the simulated ice water path is generally consistent with observed values, the median SCM and CRM liquid water path is a factor‐of‐three smaller than observed. Results from a sensitivity study in which models removed ice microphysics suggest that in many models the interaction between liquid and ice‐phase microphysics is responsible for the large model underestimate of liquid water path. Despite this underestimate, the simulated liquid and ice water paths of several models are consistent with observed values. Furthermore, models with more sophisticated microphysics simulate liquid and ice water paths that are in better agreement with the observed values, although considerable scatter exists. Although no single factor guarantees a good simulation, these results emphasize the need for improvement in the model representation of mixed‐phase microphysics. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Atrial fibrillation (AF) carries an increased risk of ischaemic stroke, and oral anticoagulation with warfarin can reduce this risk. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between time in therapeutic International Normalised Ratio (INR) range when receiving warfarin and the risk of stroke and mortality. The study cohort included AF patients aged 40 years and older included in the UK General Practice Research Database. For patients treated with warfarin we computed the percentage of follow-up time spent within therapeutic range. Cox regression was used to assess the association between INR and outcomes while controlling for patient demographics, health status and concomitant medication. The study population included 27,458 warfarin-treated (with at least 3 INR measurements) and 10,449 patients not treated with antithrombotic therapy. Overall the warfarin users spent 63% of their time within therapeutic range (TTR). This percentage did not vary substantially by age, sex and CHA2DS2-VASc score. Patients who spent at least 70% of time within therapeutic range had a 79% reduced risk of stroke compared to patients with ≤30% of time in range (adjusted relative rate of 0.21; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.25). Mortality rates were also significantly lower with at least 70% of time spent within therapeutic range. In conclusion, good anticoagulation control was associated with a reduction in the risk of stroke.

Abstract. This paper seeks to reconstruct and revitalize the famous Hirschman framework by providing a comprehensive review of the current use of ‘exit, voice and loyalty’. We begin by critically examining Hirchman's original account, and then look at the way his argument has been extended in different fields both conceptually and empirically. We suggest that while advances have been made, the results so far are somewhat disappointing given the perceptiveness of the original insight. We believe this is because his apparently simple schema is more complex than it first appears, and different aspects of exit, of voice, and of empirical foundations of loyalty need to be analytically distinguished in order to produce testable empirical hypotheses about their relationships.

Abstract Thermal comfort is quantified in 15 regions using the wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT), examining past and future rates of thresholds exceedance corresponding to moderate, high, and extreme heat (28, 32, and 35 °C, respectively). As recent changes to thermal comfort appear to be dominated by temperature and humidity, a WBGT approximation based only on these is used. A new homogenised dataset from 1973 to 2003 is developed which provides WBGT daily means, daily maximums averaged over 5‐day periods, and the highest extreme for each 5‐day period; recent trends are positive for all regions except northeast USA and northeast Australia. A simple model for predicting summertime threshold exceedance rates, with a fixed distribution of anomalies about the seasonal mean, is found to adequately predict changes for the above quantities given seasonal mean values. This model is used to predict the impact of regional 1–5 °C temperature increases on WBGT exceedance rates with no change in relative humidity. Results show that heat events may worsen as much, or more, in humid tropical and mid‐latitude regions even if they warm less than the global average, due to greater absolute humidity increases. A further 2 °C warming from the present is sufficient to push peak WBGT above 35 °C, an extreme heat event, in all regions except the UK. An ensemble of HadCM3 climate model simulations is used to investigate likely regional changes in mean summertime temperature, relative humidity and WBGT under an A1B scenario for the 2020s and 2050s. Unsurprisingly, simulated regional changes often depart significantly from the global average, and the impact of regional changes in relative humidity is not always negligible. Increases in WBGT are nonetheless expected in all regions, and are more predictable than increases in temperature at least in mid‐latitude regions owing to the compensating effects of humidity. © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of fracture in patients receiving intermittent therapy with high-dose oral glucocorticoids (GCs). METHODS: The study group comprised 191,752 patients from the UK General Practice Database who were 40 years of age and older and received therapy with GCs. The followup time period was divided into the categories of "current" and "no exposure." The daily dose and cumulative dose for each time period were determined. Relative risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, disease history, and drug history. Fractures of the radius/ulna, humerus, rib, femur/hip, pelvis, or vertebrae were included in the evaluation. RESULTS: Patients who intermittently received high-dose GCs (daily dose > or =15 mg) and had no or little previous exposure to GCs (cumulative exposure < or =1 gm) had a small increased risk of osteoporotic (but not hip/femur) fracture; this risk increased substantially with increasing cumulative exposure. Among patients who received a daily dose > or =30 mg and whose cumulative exposure was >5 gm, the relative risk (RR) of osteoporotic fracture was 3.63 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 2.54-5.20), the RR of fracture of the hip/femur was 3.13 (95% CI 1.49-6.59), and the RR of vertebral fracture was 14.42 (95% CI 8.29-25.08). CONCLUSION: Intermittent use of high-dose oral GCs (daily dose > or =15 mg and cumulative exposure < or =1 gm) may result in a small increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Conversely, patients who receive several courses of high-dose GCs (daily dose > or =15 mg and cumulative exposure >1 gm) have a substantially increased risk of fracture.

A critical review of technologies for harnessing the power from flowing water using a hydrokinetic turbine to fulfill the energy need,

A new mathematical model of the head has been constructed from a set of serial MRI slices from one subject. Finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) calculations of the specific energy absorption rate (SAR) have been performed on this model with a 2 mm resolution for a generic mobile communication transceiver represented by a quarter-wavelength monopole on a metal box. The antenna was mounted either at the centre or corner of the top face of the box. The frequencies considered were 900 MHz and 1.8 GHz. Three irradiation geometries were considered, a vertical handset in front of the eye and vertical and horizontal orientations at the side of the ear. The effect of a hand grasping the handset was considered. The head model was scaled to represent the head of an infant and a subset of calculations was performed to verify that the SAR deposited in the infant head did not exceed that in the adult. Results are also presented for a half-wavelength dipole. The maximum SAR values produced by the generic transceiver for the horizontal orientation at the side of the head which is the most typical position, averaged over 10 g of tissue at 900 MHz and 1.8 GHz, are 2.1 and 3.0 W kg(-1) per W of radiated power. The corresponding values over 1 g of tissue are 2.3 and 4.8 W kg(-1) per W at 900 MHz and 1.8 GHz. However, if one were to consider all possible operational conditions, the placement of the transceiver in front of the eye will give 3.1 and 4.6 W kg(-1) per W averaged over 10 g of tissue and 4.7 and 7.7 W kg(-1) per W over 1 g of tissue at 900 MHz and 1.8 GHz, respectively.

Metabolic highways may be orchestrated by the assembly of sequential enzymes into protein complexes, or metabolons, to facilitate efficient channeling of intermediates and to prevent undesired metabolic cross-talk while maintaining metabolic flexibility. Here we report the isolation of the dynamic metabolon that catalyzes the formation of the cyanogenic glucoside dhurrin, a defense compound produced in sorghum plants. The metabolon was reconstituted in liposomes, which demonstrated the importance of membrane surface charge and the presence of the glucosyltransferase for metabolic channeling. We used in planta fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy and fluorescence correlation spectroscopy to study functional and structural characteristics of the metabolon. Understanding the regulation of biosynthetic metabolons offers opportunities to optimize synthetic biology approaches for efficient production of high-value products in heterologous hosts.

This paper outlines the development of a 2 mm resolution voxel model, NAOMI (aNAtOMIcal model), designed to be representative of the average adult female. The primary medical imaging data were derived from a high-resolution MRI scan of a 1.65 m tall, 23 year old female subject with a mass of 58 kg. The model was rescaled to a height of 1.63 m and a mass of 60 kg, the dimensions of the International Commission on Radiological Protection reference adult female. There are 41 tissue types in the model. The application of NAOMI to the calculations of induced current densities and electric fields from applied low frequency magnetic and electric fields is described. Comparisons are made with values from the male voxel model, NORMAN. The calculations were extended from 50 Hz up to 10 MHz. External field reference levels are compared with the ICNIRP guidelines.

Paternal discrepancy (PD) occurs when a child is identified as being biologically fathered by someone other than the man who believes he is the father. This paper examines published evidence on levels of PD and its public health consequences. Rates vary between studies from 0.8% to 30% (median 3.7%, n = 17). Using information from genetic and behavioural studies, the article identifies those who conceive younger, live in deprivation, are in long term relationships (rather than marriages), or in certain cultural groups are at higher risk. Public health consequences of PD being exposed include family break up and violence. However, leaving PD undiagnosed means cases having incorrect information on their genetics and fathers continuing to suspect that children may not be theirs. Increasing paternity testing and use of DNA techniques in clinical and judicial procedures means more cases of PD will be identified. Given developing roles for individual's genetics in decisions made by health services, private services (for example, insurance), and even in personal lifestyle decisions, the dearth of intelligence on how and when PD should be exposed urgently needs addressing.

Targets, rankings and intelligence are common forms of public service management by numbers. So what's global and what's distinctively English about this phenomenon? What's new and what's old about the use of targets, rankings and intelligence? And what do we know we don't know about each of these forms of public service management by numbers? The special features of composite ranking systems seem to be a key part of the answer to all these questions

ABSTRACT This article presents the first application in finance of recently developed methods for the Gaussian estimation of continuous time dynamic models. A range of one factor continuous time models of the short‐term interest rate are estimated using a discrete time model and compared to a recent discrete approximation used by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (1992a, hereafter CKLS). Whereas the volatility of short‐term rates is highly sensitive to the level of rates in the United States, it is not in the United Kingdom.

(2000). European integration and national executives: A cause in search of an effect? West European Politics: Vol. 23, Europeanised Politics? European Integration and National Political Systems, pp. 211-231.