Desert Research Institute

Abstract Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black‐carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom‐up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr −1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial‐era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m −2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m −2 . Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m −2 . Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial‐era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m −2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m −2 . Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co‐emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m −2 , is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present‐day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short‐lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co‐emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short‐lived co‐emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy‐related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial‐era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m −2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short‐lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial‐era climate forcing by all short‐lived species from black‐carbon‐rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m −2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m −2 ). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black‐carbon‐rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co‐emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black‐carbon mitigation actions, non‐science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near‐term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black‐carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Abstract. The evaluation of hydrologic model behaviour and performance is commonly made and reported through comparisons of simulated and observed variables. Frequently, comparisons are made between simulated and measured streamflow at the catchment outlet. In distributed hydrological modelling approaches, additional comparisons of simulated and observed measurements for multi-response validation may be integrated into the evaluation procedure to assess overall modelling performance. In both approaches, single and multi-response, efficiency criteria are commonly used by hydrologists to provide an objective assessment of the "closeness" of the simulated behaviour to the observed measurements. While there are a few efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of determination, and index of agreement that are frequently used in hydrologic modeling studies and reported in the literature, there are a large number of other efficiency criteria to choose from. The selection and use of specific efficiency criteria and the interpretation of the results can be a challenge for even the most experienced hydrologist since each criterion may place different emphasis on different types of simulated and observed behaviours. In this paper, the utility of several efficiency criteria is investigated in three examples using a simple observed streamflow hydrograph.

Landsat 8, a NASA and USGS collaboration, acquires global moderate-resolution measurements of the Earth's terrestrial and polar regions in the visible, near-infrared, short wave, and thermal infrared. Landsat 8 extends the remarkable 40 year Landsat record and has enhanced capabilities including new spectral bands in the blue and cirrus cloud-detection portion of the spectrum, two thermal bands, improved sensor signal-to-noise performance and associated improvements in radiometric resolution, and an improved duty cycle that allows collection of a significantly greater number of images per day. This paper introduces the current (2012–2017) Landsat Science Team's efforts to establish an initial understanding of Landsat 8 capabilities and the steps ahead in support of priorities identified by the team. Preliminary evaluation of Landsat 8 capabilities and identification of new science and applications opportunities are described with respect to calibration and radiometric characterization; surface reflectance; surface albedo; surface temperature, evapotranspiration and drought; agriculture; land cover, condition, disturbance and change; fresh and coastal water; and snow and ice. Insights into the development of derived ‘higher-level’ Landsat products are provided in recognition of the growing need for consistently processed, moderate spatial resolution, large area, long-term terrestrial data records for resource management and for climate and global change studies. The paper concludes with future prospects, emphasizing the opportunities for land imaging constellations by combining Landsat data with data collected from other international sensing systems, and consideration of successor Landsat mission requirements.

Abstract. We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850–2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment report (AR5). Our best estimate for the year 2000 inventory represents a combination of existing regional and global inventories to capture the best information available at this point; 40 regions and 12 sectors are used to combine the various sources. The historical reconstruction of each emitted compound, for each region and sector, is then forced to agree with our 2000 estimate, ensuring continuity between past and 2000 emissions. Simulations from two chemistry-climate models are used to test the ability of the emission dataset described here to capture long-term changes in atmospheric ozone, carbon monoxide and aerosol distributions. The simulated long-term change in the Northern mid-latitudes surface and mid-troposphere ozone is not quite as rapid as observed. However, stations outside this latitude band show much better agreement in both present-day and long-term trend. The model simulations indicate that the concentration of carbon monoxide is underestimated at the Mace Head station; however, the long-term trend over the limited observational period seems to be reasonably well captured. The simulated sulfate and black carbon deposition over Greenland is in very good agreement with the ice-core observations spanning the simulation period. Finally, aerosol optical depth and additional aerosol diagnostics are shown to be in good agreement with previously published estimates and observations.

Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km(2) (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km(2) (53.4%) during the second half of the study period. If these fire weather changes are coupled with ignition sources and available fuel, they could markedly impact global ecosystems, societies, economies and climate.

Research Article| June 01, 1997 Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago R. B. Alley; R. B. Alley 1Earth System Science Center and Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. A. Mayewski; P. A. Mayewski 2Climate Change Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03824 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar T. Sowers; T. Sowers 1Earth System Science Center and Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar M. Stuiver; M. Stuiver 3Department of Geological Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar K. C. Taylor; K. C. Taylor 4Desert Research Institute, University of Nevada System, Reno, Nevada 89506 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar P. U. Clark P. U. Clark 5Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information R. B. Alley 1Earth System Science Center and Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 P. A. Mayewski 2Climate Change Research Center, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire 03824 T. Sowers 1Earth System Science Center and Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 M. Stuiver 3Department of Geological Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 K. C. Taylor 4Desert Research Institute, University of Nevada System, Reno, Nevada 89506 P. U. Clark 5Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331 Publisher: Geological Society of America First Online: 02 Jun 2017 Online ISSN: 1943-2682 Print ISSN: 0091-7613 Geological Society of America Geology (1997) 25 (6): 483–486. https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2 Article history First Online: 02 Jun 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation R. B. Alley, P. A. Mayewski, T. Sowers, M. Stuiver, K. C. Taylor, P. U. Clark; Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago. Geology 1997;; 25 (6): 483–486. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract The most prominent Holocene climatic event in Greenland ice-core proxies, with approximately half the amplitude of the Younger Dryas, occurred ∼8000 to 8400 yr ago. This Holocene event affected regions well beyond the North Atlantic basin, as shown by synchronous increases in windblown chemical indicators together with a significant decrease in methane. Widespread proxy records from the tropics to the north polar regions show a short-lived cool, dry, or windy event of similar age. The spatial pattern of terrestrial and marine changes is similar to that of the Younger Dryas event, suggesting a role for North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Possible forcings identified thus far for this Holocene event are small, consistent with recent model results indicating high sensitivity and strong linkages in the climatic system. This content is PDF only. Please click on the PDF icon to access. First Page Preview Close Modal You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.

Every year, from December to April, anthropogenic haze spreads over most of the North Indian Ocean, and South and Southeast Asia. The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) documented this Indo‐Asian haze at scales ranging from individual particles to its contribution to the regional climate forcing. This study integrates the multiplatform observations (satellites, aircraft, ships, surface stations, and balloons) with one‐ and four‐dimensional models to derive the regional aerosol forcing resulting from the direct, the semidirect and the two indirect effects. The haze particles consisted of several inorganic and carbonaceous species, including absorbing black carbon clusters, fly ash, and mineral dust. The most striking result was the large loading of aerosols over most of the South Asian region and the North Indian Ocean. The January to March 1999 visible optical depths were about 0.5 over most of the continent and reached values as large as 0.2 over the equatorial Indian ocean due to long‐range transport. The aerosol layer extended as high as 3 km. Black carbon contributed about 14% to the fine particle mass and 11% to the visible optical depth. The single‐scattering albedo estimated by several independent methods was consistently around 0.9 both inland and over the open ocean. Anthropogenic sources contributed as much as 80% (±10%) to the aerosol loading and the optical depth. The in situ data, which clearly support the existence of the first indirect effect (increased aerosol concentration producing more cloud drops with smaller effective radii), are used to develop a composite indirect effect scheme. The Indo‐Asian aerosols impact the radiative forcing through a complex set of heating (positive forcing) and cooling (negative forcing) processes. Clouds and black carbon emerge as the major players. The dominant factor, however, is the large negative forcing (‐20±4 W m −2 ) at the surface and the comparably large atmospheric heating. Regionally, the absorbing haze decreased the surface solar radiation by an amount comparable to 50% of the total ocean heat flux and nearly doubled the lower tropospheric solar heating. We demonstrate with a general circulation model how this additional heating significantly perturbs the tropical rainfall patterns and the hydrological cycle with implications to global climate.

Abstract. A modal aerosol module (MAM) has been developed for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). MAM is capable of simulating the aerosol size distribution and both internal and external mixing between aerosol components, treating numerous complicated aerosol processes and aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties in a physically-based manner. Two MAM versions were developed: a more complete version with seven lognormal modes (MAM7), and a version with three lognormal modes (MAM3) for the purpose of long-term (decades to centuries) simulations. In this paper a description and evaluation of the aerosol module and its two representations are provided. Sensitivity of the aerosol lifecycle to simplifications in the representation of aerosol is discussed. Simulated sulfate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass concentrations are remarkably similar between MAM3 and MAM7. Differences in primary organic matter (POM) and black carbon (BC) concentrations between MAM3 and MAM7 are also small (mostly within 10%). The mineral dust global burden differs by 10% and sea salt burden by 30–40% between MAM3 and MAM7, mainly due to the different size ranges for dust and sea salt modes and different standard deviations of the log-normal size distribution for sea salt modes between MAM3 and MAM7. The model is able to qualitatively capture the observed geographical and temporal variations of aerosol mass and number concentrations, size distributions, and aerosol optical properties. However, there are noticeable biases; e.g., simulated BC concentrations are significantly lower than measurements in the Arctic. There is a low bias in modeled aerosol optical depth on the global scale, especially in the developing countries. These biases in aerosol simulations clearly indicate the need for improvements of aerosol processes (e.g., emission fluxes of anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gases in developing countries, boundary layer nucleation) and properties (e.g., primary aerosol emission size, POM hygroscopicity). In addition, the critical role of cloud properties (e.g., liquid water content, cloud fraction) responsible for the wet scavenging of aerosol is highlighted.

Abstract The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-19 1,2 , host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases 3–7 . They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.

Formal planning and development of what became the first Landsat satellite commenced over 50 years ago in 1967. Now, having collected earth observation data for well over four decades since the 1972 launch of Landsat-1, the Landsat program is increasingly complex and vibrant. Critical programmatic elements are ensuring the continuity of high quality measurements for scientific and operational investigations, including ground systems, acquisition planning, data archiving and management, and provision of analysis ready data products. Free and open access to archival and new imagery has resulted in a myriad of innovative applications and novel scientific insights. The planning of future compatible satellites in the Landsat series, which maintain continuity while

Simultaneous measurements of atmospheric organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC) were taken during winter and summer seasons at 2003 in 14 cities in China. Daily PM 2.5 samples were analyzed for OC and EC by the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) thermal/optical reflectance protocol. Average PM 2.5 OC concentrations in the 14 cities were 38.1 μ g m −3 and 13.8 μ g m −3 for winter and summer periods, and the corresponding EC were 9.9 μ g m −3 and 3.6 μ g m −3 , respectively. OC and EC concentrations had summer minima and winter maxima in all the cities. Carbonaceous matter (CM), the sum of organic matter (OM = 1.6 × OC) and EC, contributed 44.2% to PM 2.5 in winter and 38.8% in summer. OC was correlated with EC ( R 2 : 0.56–0.99) in winter, but correlation coefficients were lower in summer ( R 2 : 0.003–0.90). Using OC/EC enrichment factors, the primary OC, secondary OC and EC accounted for 47.5%, 31.7% and 20.8%, respectively, of total carbon in Chinese urban environments. More than two thirds of China's urban carbon is derived from directly emitted particles. Average OC/EC ratios ranged from 2.0 to 4.7 among 14 cities during winter and from 2.1 to 5.9 during summer. OC/EC ratios in this study were consistent with a possible cooling effect of carbonaceous aerosols over China.

The 1999 Regional Haze Rule provides a context for this review of visibility, the science that describes it, and the use of that science in regulatory guidance. The scientific basis for the 1999 regulation is adequate. The deciview metric that tracks progress is an imperfect but objective measure of what people see near the prevailing visual range. The definition of natural visibility conditions is adequate for current planning, but it will need to be refined as visibility improves. Emissions from other countries will set achievable levels above those produced by natural sources. Some natural events, notably dust storms and wildfires, are episodic and cannot be represented by annual average background values or emission estimates. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission reductions correspond with lower sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations and visibility improvements in the regions where these have occurred. Non-road emissions have been growing more rapidly than emissions from other sources, which have remained stable or decreased since 1970. Simpler models representing transport, limiting precursor pollutants, and gas-to-particle equilibrium should be used to understand where and when emission reductions will be effective, rather than large complex models that have insufficient input and validation measurements. Examples of model-based source attribution show large differences among estimates from various modeling systems and with ambient measurements.

These guidelines are a consensus work of a considerable number of members of the immunology and flow cytometry community. They provide the theory and key practical aspects of flow cytometry enabling immunologists to avoid the common errors that often undermine immunological data. Notably, there are comprehensive sections of all major immune cell types with helpful Tables detailing phenotypes in murine and human cells. The latest flow cytometry techniques and applications are also described, featuring examples of the data that can be generated and, importantly, how the data can be analysed. Furthermore, there are sections detailing tips, tricks and pitfalls to avoid, all written and peer-reviewed by leading experts in the field, making this an essential research companion.

The reconstruction of bacterial and archaeal genomes from shotgun metagenomes has enabled insights into the ecology and evolution of environmental and host-associated microbiomes. Here we applied this approach to >10,000 metagenomes collected from diverse habitats covering all of Earth's continents and oceans, including metagenomes from human and animal hosts, engineered environments, and natural and agricultural soils, to capture extant microbial, metabolic and functional potential. This comprehensive catalog includes 52,515 metagenome-assembled genomes representing 12,556 novel candidate species-level operational taxonomic units spanning 135 phyla. The catalog expands the known phylogenetic diversity of bacteria and archaea by 44% and is broadly available for streamlined comparative analyses, interactive exploration, metabolic modeling and bulk download. We demonstrate the utility of this collection for understanding secondary-metabolite biosynthetic potential and for resolving thousands of new host linkages to uncultivated viruses. This resource underscores the value of genome-centric approaches for revealing genomic properties of uncultivated microorganisms that affect ecosystem processes.

Thermally derived carbon fractions including organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) have been reported for the U.S. Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network since 1987 and have been found useful in source apportionment studies and to evaluate quartz-fiber filter adsorption of organic vapors. The IMPROVE_A temperature protocol defines temperature plateaus for thermally derived carbon fractions of 140 degrees C for OC1, 280 degrees C for OC2, 480 degrees C for OC3, and 580 degrees C for OC4 in a helium (He) carrier gas and 580 degrees C for EC1, 740 degrees C for EC2, and 840 degrees C for EC3 in a 98% He/2% oxygen (O2) carrier gas. These temperatures differ from those used previously because new hardware used for the IMPROVE thermal/optical reflectance (IMPROVE_TOR) protocol better represents the sample temperature than did the old hardware. A newly developed temperature calibration method demonstrates that these temperatures better represent sample temperatures in the older units used to quantify IMPROVE carbon fractions from 1987 through 2004. Only the thermal fractions are affected by changes in temperature. The OC and EC by TOR are insensitive to the change in temperature protocol, and therefore the long-term consistency of the IMPROVE database is conserved. A method to detect small quantities of O2 in the pure He carrier gas shows that O2 levels above 100 ppmv also affect the comparability of thermal carbon fractions but have little effect on the IMPROVE_TOR split between OC and EC.

Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) are operationally defined by the analysis methods, and different methods give in different results. The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) and NIOSH (National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health) thermal evolution protocols present different operational definitions. These protocols are applied to 60 ambient and source samples from different environments using the same instrument to quantify differences in implemented protocols on the same instrument. The protocols are equivalent for total carbon sampled on quartz-fiber filters. NIOSH EC was typically less than half of IMPROVE EC. The primary difference is the allocation of carbon evolving at the NIOSH 850°C temperature in a helium atmosphere to the OC rather than EC fraction. Increasing light transmission and reflectance during this temperature step indicate that this fraction should be classified as EC. When this portion of NIOSH OC is added to NIOSH EC, the IMPROVE and NIOSH analyses are in good agreement. The most probable explanation is that mineral oxides in the complex particle mixture on the filter are supplying oxygen to neighboring carbon particles at this high temperature. This has been demonstrated by the principle of the thermal manganese oxidation method that is also commonly used to distinguish OC from EC. For both methods, the optical pyrolysis adjustment to the EC fractions was always higher for transmittance than for reflectance. This is a secondary cause of differences between the two methods, with transmittance resulting in a lower EC loading than reflectance. The difference was most pronounced for very black filters on which neither reflectance nor transmittance accurately detected further blackening due to pyrolysis.

Abstract Place‐based data is required in wildfire analyses, particularly in regions of diverse terrain that foster not only strong gradients in meteorological variables, but also complex fire behaviour. However, a majority of downscaling methods are inappropriate for wildfire application due to the lack of daily timescales and variables such as humidity and winds that are important for fuel flammability and fire spread. Two statistical downscaling methods, the daily Bias corrected Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) and the Multivariate Adapted Constructed Analogs (MACA) that directly incorporate daily data from global climate models, were validated over the western US using global reanalysis data. While both methods outperformed results obtained from direct interpolation from reanalysis, MACA exhibited additional skill in temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation due to its ability to jointly downscale temperature and dew point temperature, and its use of analog patterns rather than interpolation. Both downscaling methods exhibited value added information in tracking fire danger indices and periods of extreme fire danger; however, MACA outperformed the daily BCSD due to its ability to more accurately capture relative humidity and winds. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Core Ideas A community effort is needed to move soil modeling forward. Establishing an international soil modeling consortium is key in this respect. There is a need to better integrate existing knowledge in soil models. Integration of data and models is a key challenge in soil modeling. The remarkable complexity of soil and its importance to a wide range of ecosystem services presents major challenges to the modeling of soil processes. Although major progress in soil models has occurred in the last decades, models of soil processes remain disjointed between disciplines or ecosystem services, with considerable uncertainty remaining in the quality of predictions and several challenges that remain yet to be addressed. First, there is a need to improve exchange of knowledge and experience among the different disciplines in soil science and to reach out to other Earth science communities. Second, the community needs to develop a new generation of soil models based on a systemic approach comprising relevant physical, chemical, and biological processes to address critical knowledge gaps in our understanding of soil processes and their interactions. Overcoming these challenges will facilitate exchanges between soil modeling and climate, plant, and social science modeling communities. It will allow us to contribute to preserve and improve our assessment of ecosystem services and advance our understanding of climate‐change feedback mechanisms, among others, thereby facilitating and strengthening communication among scientific disciplines and society. We review the role of modeling soil processes in quantifying key soil processes that shape ecosystem services, with a focus on provisioning and regulating services. We then identify key challenges in modeling soil processes, including the systematic incorporation of heterogeneity and uncertainty, the integration of data and models, and strategies for effective integration of knowledge on physical, chemical, and biological soil processes. We discuss how the soil modeling community could best interface with modern modeling activities in other disciplines, such as climate, ecology, and plant research, and how to weave novel observation and measurement techniques into soil models. We propose the establishment of an international soil modeling consortium to coherently advance soil modeling activities and foster communication with other Earth science disciplines. Such a consortium should promote soil modeling platforms and data repository for model development, calibration and intercomparison essential for addressing contemporary challenges.

Most forests in North America remain nitrogen limited, although recent studies have identified forested areas that exhibit symptoms of N excess, analogous to overfertilization of arable land. Nitrogen excess in watersheds is detrimental because of disruptions in plant/soil nutrient relations, increased soil acidification and aluminum mobility, increased emissions of nitrogenous greenhouse gases from soil, reduced methane consumption in soil, decreased water quality, toxic effects on freshwater biota, and eutrophication of coastal marine waters. Elevated nitrate (NO3−) loss to groundwater or surface waters is the primary symptom of N excess. Additional symptoms include increasing N concentrations and higher N:nutrient ratios in foliage (i.e., N:Mg, N:P), foliar accumulation of amino acids or NO3−, and low soil C:N ratios. Recent nitrogen-fertilization studies in New England and Europe provide preliminary evidence that some forests receiving chronic N inputs may decline in productivity and experience greater mortality. Long-term fertilization at Mount Ascutney, Vermont, suggests that declining and slow N-cycling coniferous stands may be replaced by fast-growing and fast N-cycling deciduous forests. Symptoms of N saturation are particularly severe in high-elevation, nonaggrading spruce–fir ecosystems in the Appalachian Mountains and in eastern hardwood watersheds at the Fernow Experimental Forest near Parsons, West Virginia. In the Los Angeles Air Basin, mixed conifer forests and chaparral watersheds with high smog exposure are N saturated and exhibit the highest streamwater NO3− concentrations for wildlands in North America. High-elevation alpine watersheds in the Colorado Front Range and a deciduous forest in Ontario, Canada, are N saturated, although N deposition is moderate (∼8 kg·ha−1·yr−1). In contrast, the Harvard Forest hardwood stand in Massachusetts has absorbed >900 kg N/ha during 8 yr of N amendment studies without significant NO3− leaching, illustrating that ecosystems vary widely in the capacity to retain N inputs. Overly mature forests with high N deposition, high soil N stores, and low soil C:N ratios are prone to N saturation and NO3− leaching. Additional characteristics favoring low N retention capacity include a short growing season (reduced plant N demand) and reduced contact time between drainage water and soil (i.e., porous coarse-textured soils, exposed bedrock or talus). Temporal patterns of hydrologic fluxes interact with biotic uptake and internal cycling patterns in determining ecosystem N retention. Soils are the largest storage pool for N inputs, although vegetation uptake is also important. Recent studies indicate that nitrification may be widespread in undisturbed ecosystems, and that microbial assimilation of NO3− may be a significant N retention mechanism, contrary to previous assumptions. Further studies are needed to elucidate the sites, forms, and mechanisms of N retention and incorporation into soil organic matter, and to test potential management options for mitigating N losses from forests. Implementation of intensive management practices in N-saturated ecosystems may only be feasible in high-priority areas and on a limited scale. Reduction of N emissions would be a preferable solution, although major reductions in the near future are unlikely in many areas due to economic, energy-use, policy, and demographic considerations.

The need to assess the role of forests in the global cycling of carbon and how that role will change as the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 increases has spawned many experiments over a range of scales. Experiments using open‐top chambers have been established at many sites to test whether the short‐term responses of tree seedlings described in controlled environments would be sustained over several growing seasons under field conditions. Here we review the results of those experiments, using the framework of the interacting cycles of carbon, water and nutrients, because that is the framework of the ecosystem models that are being used to address the decades‐long response of forests. Our analysis suggests that most of what was learned in seedling studies was qualitatively correct. The evidence from field‐grown trees suggests a continued and consistent stimulation of photosynthesis of about 60% for a 300 p.p.m. increase in [CO 2 ], and there is little evidence of the long‐term loss of sensitivity to CO 2 that was suggested by earlier experiments with tree seedlings in pots. Despite the importance of respiration to a tree's carbon budget, no strong scientific consensus has yet emerged concerning the potential direct or acclimation response of woody plant respiration to CO 2 enrichment. The relative effect of CO 2 on above‐ground dry mass was highly variable and greater than that indicated by most syntheses of seedling studies. Effects of CO 2 concentration on static measures of response are confounded with the acceleration of ontogeny observed in elevated CO 2 . The trees in these open‐top chamber experiments were in an exponential growth phase, and the large growth responses to elevated CO 2 resulted from the compound interest associated with an increasing leaf area. This effect cannot be expected to persist in a closed‐canopy forest where growth potential is constrained by a steady‐state leaf area index. A more robust and informative measure of tree growth in these experiments is the annual increment in wood mass per unit leaf area, which increased 27% in elevated CO 2 . There is no support for the conclusion from many studies of seedlings that root‐to‐shoot ratio is increased by elevated CO 2 ; the production of fine roots may be enhanced, but it is not clear that this response would persist in a forest. Foliar nitrogen concentrations were lower in CO 2 ‐enriched trees, but to a lesser extent than was indicated in seedling studies and only when expressed on a leaf mass basis. The prediction that leaf litter C/N ratio would increase was not supported in field experiments. Also contrasting with seedling studies, there is little evidence from the field studies that stomatal conductance is consistently affected by CO 2 ; however, this is a topic that demands more study. Experiments with trees in open‐top chambers under field conditions have provided data on longer‐term, larger‐scale responses of trees to elevated CO 2 under field conditions, confirmed some of the conclusions from previous seedling studies, and challenged other conclusions. There remain important obstacles to using these experimental results to predict forest responses to rising CO 2 , but the studies are valuable nonetheless for guiding ecosystem model development and revealing the critical questions that must be addressed in new, larger‐scale CO 2 experiments.