Institut de Recherche pour le Développement

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies, combining information from the temperature and polarization maps and the lensing reconstruction. Compared to the 2015 results, improved measurements of large-scale polarization allow the reionization optical depth to be measured with higher precision, leading to significant gains in the precision of other correlated parameters. Improved modelling of the small-scale polarization leads to more robust constraints on many parameters, with residual modelling uncertainties estimated to affect them only at the 0.5 σ level. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter ΛCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted “base ΛCDM” in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Ω c h 2 = 0.120 ± 0.001, baryon density Ω b h 2 = 0.0224 ± 0.0001, scalar spectral index n s = 0.965 ± 0.004, and optical depth τ = 0.054 ± 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03% precision, with 100 θ * = 1.0411 ± 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-ΛCDM cosmology, the inferred (model-dependent) late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H 0 = (67.4 ± 0.5) km s −1 Mpc −1 ; matter density parameter Ω m = 0.315 ± 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude σ 8 = 0.811 ± 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-ΛCDM model. Combining with baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements (and considering single-parameter extensions) we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N eff = 2.99 ± 0.17, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction N eff = 3.046, and find that the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to ∑ m ν < 0.12 eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base ΛCDM at over 2 σ , which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the ΛCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. The joint constraint with BAO measurements on spatial curvature is consistent with a flat universe, Ω K = 0.001 ± 0.002. Also combining with Type Ia supernovae (SNe), the dark-energy equation of state parameter is measured to be w 0 = −1.03 ± 0.03, consistent with a cosmological constant. We find no evidence for deviations from a purely power-law primordial spectrum, and combining with data from BAO, BICEP2, and Keck Array data, we place a limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r 0.002 < 0.06. Standard big-bang nucleosynthesis predictions for the helium and deuterium abundances for the base-ΛCDM cosmology are in excellent agreement with observations. The Planck base-ΛCDM results are in good agreement with BAO, SNe, and some galaxy lensing observations, but in slight tension with the Dark Energy Survey’s combined-probe results including galaxy clustering (which prefers lower fluctuation amplitudes or matter density parameters), and in significant, 3.6 σ , tension with local measurements of the Hubble constant (which prefer a higher value). Simple model extensions that can partially resolve these tensions are not favoured by the Planck data.

The IntCal09 and Marine09 radiocarbon calibration curves have been revised utilizing newly available and updated data sets from 14 C measurements on tree rings, plant macrofossils, speleothems, corals, and foraminifera. The calibration curves were derived from the data using the random walk model (RWM) used to generate IntCal09 and Marine09, which has been revised to account for additional uncertainties and error structures. The new curves were ratified at the 21st International Radiocarbon conference in July 2012 and are available as Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org. The database can be accessed at http://intcal.qub.ac.uk/intcal13/.

Summary: After more than fifteen years of existence, the R package ape has continuously grown its contents, and has been used by a growing community of users. The release of version 5.0 has marked a leap towards a modern software for evolutionary analyses. Efforts have been put to improve efficiency, flexibility, support for 'big data' (R's long vectors), ease of use and quality check before a new release. These changes will hopefully make ape a useful software for the study of biodiversity and evolution in a context of increasing data quantity. Availability and implementation: ape is distributed through the Comprehensive R Archive Network: http://cran.r-project.org/package=ape. Further information may be found at http://ape-package.ird.fr/.

Freshwater biodiversity is the over-riding conservation priority during the International Decade for Action - 'Water for Life' - 2005 to 2015. Fresh water makes up only 0.01% of the World's water and approximately 0.8% of the Earth's surface, yet this tiny fraction of global water supports at least 100000 species out of approximately 1.8 million - almost 6% of all described species. Inland waters and freshwater biodiversity constitute a valuable natural resource, in economic, cultural, aesthetic, scientific and educational terms. Their conservation and management are critical to the interests of all humans, nations and governments. Yet this precious heritage is in crisis. Fresh waters are experiencing declines in biodiversity far greater than those in the most affected terrestrial ecosystems, and if trends in human demands for water remain unaltered and species losses continue at current rates, the opportunity to conserve much of the remaining biodiversity in fresh water will vanish before the 'Water for Life' decade ends in 2015. Why is this so, and what is being done about it? This article explores the special features of freshwater habitats and the biodiversity they support that makes them especially vulnerable to human activities. We document threats to global freshwater biodiversity under five headings: overexploitation; water pollution; flow modification; destruction or degradation of habitat; and invasion by exotic species. Their combined and interacting influences have resulted in population declines and range reduction of freshwater biodiversity worldwide. Conservation of biodiversity is complicated by the landscape position of rivers and wetlands as 'receivers' of land-use effluents, and the problems posed by endemism and thus non-substitutability. In addition, in many parts of the world, fresh water is subject to severe competition among multiple human stakeholders. Protection of freshwater biodiversity is perhaps the ultimate conservation challenge because it is influenced by the upstream drainage network, the surrounding land, the riparian zone, and - in the case of migrating aquatic fauna - downstream reaches. Such prerequisites are hardly ever met. Immediate action is needed where opportunities exist to set aside intact lake and river ecosystems within large protected areas. For most of the global land surface, trade-offs between conservation of freshwater biodiversity and human use of ecosystem goods and services are necessary. We advocate continuing attempts to check species loss but, in many situations, urge adoption of a compromise position of management for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem functioning and resilience, and human livelihoods in order to provide a viable long-term basis for freshwater conservation. Recognition of this need will require adoption of a new paradigm for biodiversity protection and freshwater ecosystem management - one that has been appropriately termed 'reconciliation ecology'.

ABSTRACT Radiocarbon ( 14 C) ages cannot provide absolutely dated chronologies for archaeological or paleoenvironmental studies directly but must be converted to calendar age equivalents using a calibration curve compensating for fluctuations in atmospheric 14 C concentration. Although calibration curves are constructed from independently dated archives, they invariably require revision as new data become available and our understanding of the Earth system improves. In this volume the international 14 C calibration curves for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as for the ocean surface layer, have been updated to include a wealth of new data and extended to 55,000 cal BP. Based on tree rings, IntCal20 now extends as a fully atmospheric record to ca. 13,900 cal BP. For the older part of the timescale, IntCal20 comprises statistically integrated evidence from floating tree-ring chronologies, lacustrine and marine sediments, speleothems, and corals. We utilized improved evaluation of the timescales and location variable 14 C offsets from the atmosphere (reservoir age, dead carbon fraction) for each dataset. New statistical methods have refined the structure of the calibration curves while maintaining a robust treatment of uncertainties in the 14 C ages, the calendar ages and other corrections. The inclusion of modeled marine reservoir ages derived from a three-dimensional ocean circulation model has allowed us to apply more appropriate reservoir corrections to the marine 14 C data rather than the previous use of constant regional offsets from the atmosphere. Here we provide an overview of the new and revised datasets and the associated methods used for the construction of the IntCal20 curve and explore potential regional offsets for tree-ring data. We discuss the main differences with respect to the previous calibration curve, IntCal13, and some of the implications for archaeology and geosciences ranging from the recent past to the time of the extinction of the Neanderthals.

Quantum EXPRESSO is an integrated suite of open-source computer codes for quantum simulations of materials using state-of-the-art electronic-structure techniques, based on density-functional theory, density-functional perturbation theory, and many-body perturbation theory, within the plane-wave pseudopotential and projector-augmented-wave approaches. Quantum EXPRESSO owes its popularity to the wide variety of properties and processes it allows to simulate, to its performance on an increasingly broad array of hardware architectures, and to a community of researchers that rely on its capabilities as a core open-source development platform to implement their ideas. In this paper we describe recent extensions and improvements, covering new methodologies and property calculators, improved parallelization, code modularization, and extended interoperability both within the distribution and with external software.

Good bacteria help fight cancer Resident gut bacteria can affect patient responses to cancer immunotherapy (see the Perspective by Jobin). Routy et al. show that antibiotic consumption is associated with poor response to immunotherapeutic PD-1 blockade. They profiled samples from patients with lung and kidney cancers and found that nonresponding patients had low levels of the bacterium Akkermansia muciniphila . Oral supplementation of the bacteria to antibiotic-treated mice restored the response to immunotherapy. Matson et al. and Gopalakrishnan et al. studied melanoma patients receiving PD-1 blockade and found a greater abundance of “good” bacteria in the guts of responding patients. Nonresponders had an imbalance in gut flora composition, which correlated with impaired immune cell activity. Thus, maintaining healthy gut flora could help patients combat cancer. Science , this issue p. 91 , p. 104 , p. 97 ; see also p. 32

Phylogenetic analyses are central to many research areas in biology and typically involve the identification of homologous sequences, their multiple alignment, the phylogenetic reconstruction and the graphical representation of the inferred tree. The Phylogeny.fr platform transparently chains programs to automatically perform these tasks. It is primarily designed for biologists with no experience in phylogeny, but can also meet the needs of specialists; the first ones will find up-to-date tools chained in a phylogeny pipeline to analyze their data in a simple and robust way, while the specialists will be able to easily build and run sophisticated analyses. Phylogeny.fr offers three main modes. The 'One Click' mode targets non-specialists and provides a ready-to-use pipeline chaining programs with recognized accuracy and speed: MUSCLE for multiple alignment, PhyML for tree building, and TreeDyn for tree rendering. All parameters are set up to suit most studies, and users only have to provide their input sequences to obtain a ready-to-print tree. The 'Advanced' mode uses the same pipeline but allows the parameters of each program to be customized by users. The 'A la Carte' mode offers more flexibility and sophistication, as users can build their own pipeline by selecting and setting up the required steps from a large choice of tools to suit their specific needs. Prior to phylogenetic analysis, users can also collect neighbors of a query sequence by running BLAST on general or specialized databases. A guide tree then helps to select neighbor sequences to be used as input for the phylogeny pipeline. Phylogeny.fr is available at: http://www.phylogeny.fr/

The IntCal04 and Marine04 radiocarbon calibration curves have been updated from 12 cal kBP (cal kBP is here defined as thousands of calibrated years before AD 1950), and extended to 50 cal kBP, utilizing newly available data sets that meet the IntCal Working Group criteria for pristine corals and other carbonates and for quantification of uncertainty in both the 14 C and calendar timescales as established in 2002. No change was made to the curves from 0–12 cal kBP. The curves were constructed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation of the random walk model used for IntCal04 and Marine04. The new curves were ratified at the 20th International Radiocarbon Conference in June 2009 and are available in the Supplemental Material at www.radiocarbon.org .

The fourth genome sequence of a flowering plant, the second of a woody plant species and the first for a fruit crop. These important boxes are ticked by the genome sequence published in this issue. The new sequence is particularly revealing about the role of gene duplication in the evolution of the flowering plants. But the reason why non-geneticists will turn to it is more to do with its commercial application: the crop is the grapevine (Vitis vinifera) and the variety is Pinot Noir. A French and Italian consortium has produced sequence and analysis of Vitis vinifera PN40024, a grapevine originally derived from Pinot Noir. As you might expect, the grapevine has twice as many terpene synthases as other sequenced plants; these enzymes contribute to resins, essential oils and aromas. The analysis of the first plant genomes provided unexpected evidence for genome duplication events in species that had previously been considered as true diploids on the basis of their genetics1,2,3. These polyploidization events may have had important consequences in plant evolution, in particular for species radiation and adaptation and for the modulation of functional capacities4,5,6,7,8,9,10. Here we report a high-quality draft of the genome sequence of grapevine (Vitis vinifera) obtained from a highly homozygous genotype. The draft sequence of the grapevine genome is the fourth one produced so far for flowering plants, the second for a woody species and the first for a fruit crop (cultivated for both fruit and beverage). Grapevine was selected because of its important place in the cultural heritage of humanity beginning during the Neolithic period11. Several large expansions of gene families with roles in aromatic features are observed. The grapevine genome has not undergone recent genome duplication, thus enabling the discovery of ancestral traits and features of the genetic organization of flowering plants. This analysis reveals the contribution of three ancestral genomes to the grapevine haploid content. This ancestral arrangement is common to many dicotyledonous plants but is absent from the genome of rice, which is a monocotyledon. Furthermore, we explain the chronology of previously described whole-genome duplication events in the evolution of flowering plants.

Abstract Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is a challenging data-fitting procedure based on full-wavefield modeling to extract quantitative information from seismograms. High-resolution imaging at half the propagated wavelength is expected. Recent advances in high-performance computing and multifold/multicomponent wide-aperture and wide-azimuth acquisitions make 3D acoustic FWI feasible today. Key ingredients of FWI are an efficient forward-modeling engine and a local differential approach, in which the gradient and the Hessian operators are efficiently estimated. Local optimization does not, however, prevent convergence of the misfit function toward local minima because of the limited accuracy of the starting model, the lack of low frequencies, the presence of noise, and the approximate modeling of thewave-physics complexity. Different hierarchical multiscale strategies are designed to mitigate the nonlinearity and ill-posedness of FWI by incorporating progressively shorter wavelengths in the parameter space. Synthetic and real-data case studies address reconstructing various parameters, from VP and VS velocities to density, anisotropy, and attenuation. This review attempts to illuminate the state of the art of FWI. Crucial jumps, however, remain necessary to make it as popular as migration techniques. The challenges can be categorized as (1) building accurate starting models with automatic procedures and/or recording low frequencies, (2) defining new minimization criteria to mitigate the sensitivity of FWI to amplitude errors and increasing the robustness of FWI when multiple parameter classes are estimated, and (3) improving computational efficiency by data-compression techniques to make 3D elastic FWI feasible.

Within uncharacterized groups, DNA barcodes, short DNA sequences that are present in a wide range of species, can be used to assign organisms into species. We propose an automatic procedure that sorts the sequences into hypothetical species based on the barcode gap, which can be observed whenever the divergence among organisms belonging to the same species is smaller than divergence among organisms from different species. We use a range of prior intraspecific divergence to infer from the data a model-based one-sided confidence limit for intraspecific divergence. The method, called Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery (ABGD), then detects the barcode gap as the first significant gap beyond this limit and uses it to partition the data. Inference of the limit and gap detection are then recursively applied to previously obtained groups to get finer partitions until there is no further partitioning. Using six published data sets of metazoans, we show that ABGD is computationally efficient and performs well for standard prior maximum intraspecific divergences (a few per cent of divergence for the five data sets), except for one data set where less than three sequences per species were sampled. We further explore the theoretical limitations of ABGD through simulation of explicit speciation and population genetics scenarios. Our results emphasize in particular the sensitivity of the method to the presence of recent speciation events, via (unrealistically) high rates of speciation or large numbers of species. In conclusion, ABGD is fast, simple method to split a sequence alignment data set into candidate species that should be complemented with other evidence in an integrative taxonomic approach.

A new 2° resolution global climatology of the mixed layer depth (MLD) based on individual profiles is constructed. Previous global climatologies have been based on temperature or density‐gridded climatologies. The criterion selected is a threshold value of temperature or density from a near‐surface value at 10 m depth (Δ T = 0.2°C or Δσ θ = 0.03 kg m −3 ). A validation of the temperature criterion on moored time series data shows that the method is successful at following the base of the mixed layer. In particular, the first spring restratification is better captured than with a more commonly used larger criteria. In addition, we show that for a given 0.2°C criterion, the MLD estimated from averaged profiles results in a shallow bias of 25% compared to the MLD estimated from individual profiles. A new global seasonal estimation of barrier layer thickness is also provided. An interesting result is the prevalence in mid‐ and high‐latitude winter hemispheres of vertically density‐compensated layers, creating an isopycnal but not mixed layer. Consequently, we propose an optimal estimate of MLD based on both temperature and density data. An independent validation of the maximum annual MLD with oxygen data shows that this oxygen estimate may be biased in regions of Ekman pumping or strong biological activity. Significant differences are shown compared to previous climatologies. The timing of the seasonal cycle of the mixed layer is shifted earlier in the year, and the maximum MLD captures finer structures and is shallower. These results are discussed in light of the different approaches and the choice of criterion.

Microbes are dominant drivers of biogeochemical processes, yet drawing a global picture of functional diversity, microbial community structure, and their ecological determinants remains a grand challenge. We analyzed 7.2 terabases of metagenomic data from 243 Tara Oceans samples from 68 locations in epipelagic and mesopelagic waters across the globe to generate an ocean microbial reference gene catalog with >40 million nonredundant, mostly novel sequences from viruses, prokaryotes, and picoeukaryotes. Using 139 prokaryote-enriched samples, containing >35,000 species, we show vertical stratification with epipelagic community composition mostly driven by temperature rather than other environmental factors or geography. We identify ocean microbial core functionality and reveal that >73% of its abundance is shared with the human gut microbiome despite the physicochemical differences between these two ecosystems.

Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development.

Microsatellite null alleles are commonly encountered in population genetics studies, yet little is known about their impact on the estimation of population differentiation. Computer simulations based on the coalescent were used to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of null alleles, their impact on F(ST) and genetic distances, and the efficiency of estimators of null allele frequency. Further, we explored how the existing method for correcting genotype data for null alleles performed in estimating F(ST) and genetic distances, and we compared this method with a new method proposed here (for F(ST) only). Null alleles were likely to be encountered in populations with a large effective size, with an unusually high mutation rate in the flanking regions, and that have diverged from the population from which the cloned allele state was drawn and the primers designed. When populations were significantly differentiated, F(ST) and genetic distances were overestimated in the presence of null alleles. Frequency of null alleles was estimated precisely with the algorithm presented in Dempster et al. (1977). The conventional method for correcting genotype data for null alleles did not provide an accurate estimate of F(ST) and genetic distances. However, the use of the genetic distance of Cavalli-Sforza and Edwards (1967) corrected by the conventional method gave better estimates than those obtained without correction. F(ST) estimation from corrected genotype frequencies performed well when restricted to visible allele sizes. Both the proposed method and the traditional correction method have been implemented in a program that is available free of charge at http://www.montpellier.inra.fr/URLB/. We used 2 published microsatellite data sets based on original and redesigned pairs of primers to empirically confirm our simulation results.

SUMMARY: pegas (Population and Evolutionary Genetics Analysis System) is a new package for the analysis of population genetic data. It is written in R and is integrated with two other existing R packages (ape and adegenet). pegas provides functions for standard population genetic methods, as well as low-level functions for developing new methods. The flexible and efficient graphical capabilities of R are used for plotting haplotype networks as well as for other functionalities. pegas emphasizes the need to further develop an integrated-modular approach for software dedicated to the analysis of population genetic data. AVAILABILITY: pegas is distributed through the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN): http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/pegas/index.html. Further information may be found at: http://ape.mpl.ird.fr/pegas/.

The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature's benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend-nature and its contributions to people-is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature's deterioration.

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important tobetter understand the global carbon cycle, support the development ofclimate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe andsynthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major componentsof the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement productiondata, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainlydeforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data andbookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directlyand its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes inconcentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrialCO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process modelsconstrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the lastdecade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), andELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budgetimbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance betweenestimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, thegrowth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasingto 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEANwas 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminarydata for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions,suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (medianestimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %,−7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in thecomponents of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over theperiod 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for therepresentation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison ofestimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensusin the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2)a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude ofthe land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparentdiscrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside thetropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data updatedocuments changes in the methods and data sets used in this new globalcarbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cyclecompared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al.,2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014,2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).

It is often claimed that we do not understand the forces driving the global diversity gradient. However, an extensive literature suggests that contemporary climate constrains terrestrial taxonomic richness over broad geographic extents. Here, we review the empirical literature to examine the nature and form of the relationship between climate and richness. Our goals were to document the support for the climatically based energy hypothesis, and within the constraints imposed by correlative analyses, to evaluate two versions of the hypothesis: the productivity and ambient energy hypotheses. Focusing on studies extending over 800 km, we found that measures of energy, water, or water–energy balance explain spatial variation in richness better than other climatic and non-climatic variables in 82 of 85 cases. Even when considered individually and in isolation, water/energy variables explain on average over 60% of the variation in the richness of a wide range of plant and animal groups. Further, water variables usually represent the strongest predictors in the tropics, subtropics, and warm temperate zones, whereas energy variables (for animals) or water–energy variables (for plants) dominate in high latitudes. We conclude that the interaction between water and energy, either directly or indirectly (via plant productivity), provides a strong explanation for globally extensive plant and animal diversity gradients, but for animals there also is a latitudinal shift in the relative importance of ambient energy vs. water moving from the poles to the equator. Although contemporary climate is not the only factor influencing species richness and may not explain the diversity pattern for all taxonomic groups, it is clear that understanding water–energy dynamics is critical to future biodiversity research. Analyses that do not include water–energy variables are missing a key component for explaining broad-scale patterns of diversity.