Institut national d'études démographiques

Over 70,000 excess deaths occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. The resulting societal awareness led to the design and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect at-risk populations. We aimed to quantify heat-related mortality burden during the summer of 2022, the hottest season on record in Europe. We analyzed the Eurostat mortality database, which includes 45,184,044 counts of death from 823 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing the whole population of over 543 million people. We estimated 61,672 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 37,643-86,807) heat-related deaths in Europe between 30 May and 4 September 2022. Italy (18,010 deaths; 95% CI = 13,793-22,225), Spain (11,324; 95% CI = 7,908-14,880) and Germany (8,173; 95% CI = 5,374-11,018) had the highest summer heat-related mortality numbers, while Italy (295 deaths per million, 95% CI = 226-364), Greece (280, 95% CI = 201-355), Spain (237, 95% CI = 166-312) and Portugal (211, 95% CI = 162-255) had the highest heat-related mortality rates. Relative to population, we estimated 56% more heat-related deaths in women than men, with higher rates in men aged 0-64 (+41%) and 65-79 (+14%) years, and in women aged 80+ years (+27%). Our results call for a reevaluation and strengthening of existing heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans and long-term adaptation strategies.

International audience

This article discusses the diversity of family policy models in 28 OECD countries in terms of the balance between their different objectives and the mix of instruments adopted to implement the policies. Cross-country policy differences are investigated by applying a principal component analysis to comprehensive country-level data from the OECD Family database covering variables such as parental leave conditions, childcare service provision, and financial support to families. The results find persistent differences in the family policy patterns embedded in different contexts of work-family "outcomes." Country classifications of family policy packages only partially corroborate categorizations in earlier studies, owing to considerable within-group heterogeneity and the presence of group outliers. The Nordic countries outdistance the others with comprehensive support to working parents with very young children. Anglo-Saxon countries provide much less support for working parents with very young children, and financial support is targeted on low-income and large families and focuses on preschool and early elementary education. Continental and Eastern European countries form a more heterogeneous group, while the support received by families in Southern Europe and in Asian countries is much lower in all its dimensions.

BACKGROUND: Maternal age is an important factor in reproduction. Can assisted reproduction technologies (ART) fully compensate for the decline in fertility with age? METHODS: We used a computer simulation (Monte Carlo) model of reproduction, combining the monthly probabilities of conceiving, the risk of miscarriage and the probability of becoming age-dependently permanently sterile. RESULTS: Under natural conditions, 75% of women starting to try to conceive at age 30 years will have a conception ending in a live birth within 1 year, 66% at age 35 years and 44% at age 40 years. Within 4 years the success rates will be respectively 91, 84 and 64%. If women turn to ART after 4, 3 or 2 years respectively without conception, and if the rate of success is as observed after two cycles of insemination in IVF, ART makes up for only half of the births lost by postponing a first attempt of pregnancy from age 30 to 35 years, and <30% after postponing from 35 to 40 years. CONCLUSIONS: Even if we relax some of the assumptions, ART in its present form cannot make up for all births lost by the natural decline of fertility after age 35 years.

BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of zidovudine administration to prevent perinatal transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) should be determined to facilitate its use in areas where resources are limited. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind equivalence trial of zidovudine starting in the mother at 28 weeks' gestation, with 6 weeks of treatment in the infant (the long-long regimen), which is similar to protocol 076; zidovudine starting at 35 weeks' gestation, with 3 days of treatment in the infant (the short-short regimen); a long-short regimen; and a short-long regimen. The mothers received zidovudine orally during labor. The infants were fed formula and were tested for HIV DNA at 1, 45, 120, and 180 days. After the first interim analysis, the short-short regimen was stopped. RESULTS: A total of 1437 women were enrolled. At the first interim analysis, the rates of HIV transmission were 4.1 percent for the long-long regimen and 10.5 percent for the short-short regimen (P=0.004). For the entire study period, the transmission rates were 6.5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 4.1 to 8.9 percent) for the long-long regimen, 4.7 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 2.4 to 7.0 percent) for the long-short regimen, and 8.6 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 5.6 to 11.6 percent) for the short-long regimen. The rate of in utero transmission was significantly higher with the two regimens with shorter maternal treatment (5.1 percent) than with the two with longer maternal treatment (1.6 percent). CONCLUSIONS: The short-short zidovudine regimen is inferior to the long-long regimen and leads to a higher rate of perinatal HIV transmission. The long-short, short-long, and long-long regimens had equivalent efficacy. However, the higher rate of in utero transmission with the short-long regimen suggests that longer treatment of the infant cannot substitute for longer treatment of the mother.

Abstract This chapter addresses the issues of endogenous quantity and endogenous quality of labor, provides a simple model of productivity and wages in cities, and discusses the two main estimation issues. It presents the wage data and the worker-fixed approach to the endogenous quality of labor bias. Cities attract skilled workers so that the effects of skills and urban agglomeration are confounded. Urban agglomeration is a consequence of high local productivity rather than a cause. An instrumental variable approach introduces a new set of geological instruments in addition to standard historical instruments. Furthermore, the chapter shows the results for wages and productivity. Long lags of endogenous explanatory variables make for strong instruments, and geological characteristics are more complicated instruments to play with. The simultaneity problem between employment density and local wages/productivity is relatively small. Better workers are located in more productive areas. This sorting of workers by skills (observed and unobserved) is quantitatively more important than the endogenous quantity of labor bias. The future work would develop more sophisticated approaches to deal with the sorting of workers across places.

This article is an introduction to Special Collection 6 of Demographic Research whose articles investigate the interrelations between the family and migration behaviour of individuals in industrialised countries. We first review the life-course approac

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe mortality inequalities related to education and housing tenure in 11 European populations and to describe the age pattern of relative and absolute socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in the elderly European population. DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from mortality registries linked with population census data of 11 countries and regions of Europe were acquired for the beginning of the 1990s. Indicators of socioeconomic status were educational level and housing tenure. The study determined mortality rate ratios, relative indices of inequality (RII), and mortality rate differences. The age range was 30 to 90+ years. Analyses were performed on the pooled European data, including all populations, and on the data of populations separately. Data were included from Finland, Norway, Denmark, England and Wales, Belgium, France, Austria, Switzerland, Barcelona, Madrid, and Turin. MAIN RESULTS: In Europe (populations pooled) relative inequalities in mortality decreased with increasing age, but persisted. Absolute educational mortality differences increased until the ages 90+. In some of the populations, relative inequalities among older women were as large as those among middle aged women. The decline of relative educational inequalities was largest in Norway (men and women) and Austria (men). Relative educational inequalities did not decrease, or hardly decreased with age in England and Wales (men), Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, and Turin (women). CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality among older men and women were found to persist in each country, sometimes of similar magnitude as those among the middle aged. Mortality inequalities among older populations are an important public health problem in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission (MTCT) from mothers receiving antenatal antiretroviral therapy. DESIGN: The French Perinatal Cohort (EPF), a multicenter prospective cohort of HIV-infected pregnant women and their children. METHODS: Univariate analysis and logistic regression, with child HIV status as dependent variable, were conducted among 5271 mothers who received antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy, delivered between 1997 and 2004 and did not breastfeed. RESULTS: The MTCT rate was 1.3% [67/5271; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0-1.6]. It was as low as 0.4% (5/1338; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9) in term births with maternal HIV-1 RNA level at delivery below 50 copies/ml. MTCT increased with viral load, short duration of antiretroviral therapy, female gender and severe premature delivery: 6.6% before 33 weeks versus 1.2% at 37 weeks or more (P < 0.001). The type of antiretroviral therapy was not associated with transmission. Intrapartum therapy was associated with four-fold lower MTCT (P = 0.04) in case of virological failure (> 10 000 copies/ml). Elective cesarean section tended to be inversely associated with MTCT in the overall population, but not in mothers who delivered at term with viral load < 400 copies/ml [odds ratio (OR), 0.83; 95% CI, 0.29-2.39; P = 0.37]. Among them, only duration of antenatal therapy was associated with transmission (OR by week, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Low maternal plasma viral load is the key factor for preventing MTCT. Benefits in terms of MTCT reduction may be expected from early antiretroviral prophylaxis. The potential toxicity of prolonged antiretroviral use in pregnancy should be evaluated.

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci-entific research documents, whether they are pub-lished or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et a ̀ la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés. 1

BACKGROUND: The Global Activity Limitation Indicator (GALI), the measure underlying the European indicator Healthy Life Years (HLY), is widely used to compare population health across countries. However, the comparability of the item has been questioned. This study aims to further validate the GALI in the adult European population. METHODS: Data from the European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), covering 14 European countries and 152,787 individuals, were used to explore how the GALI was associated with other measures of disability and whether the GALI was consistent or reflected different disability situations in different countries. RESULTS: When considering each country separately or all combined, we found that the GALI was significantly associated with measures of activities of daily living, instrumental activity of daily living, and functional limitations (P < 0.001 in all cases). Associations were largest for activity of daily living and lowest though still high for functional limitations. For each measure, the magnitude of the association was similar across most countries. Overall, however, the GALI differed significantly between countries in terms of how it reflected each of the three disability measures (P < 0.001 in all cases). We suspect cross-country differences in the results may be due to variations in: the implementation of the EHIS, the perception of functioning and limitations, and the understanding of the GALI question. CONCLUSION: The study both confirms the relevance of this indicator to measure general activity limitations in the European population and the need for caution when comparing the level of the GALI from one country to another.

We performed a multicenter prevalence study of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) involving 1,582 patients (mean age, 18.9 years; male/female ratio, 1.06) with cystic fibrosis in France. The overall NTM prevalence (percentage of patients with at least one positive culture) was 6.6% (104/1,582 patients), with prevalences ranging from 3.7% (in the east of France) to 9.6% (in the greater Paris area). Mycobacterium abscessus complex (MABSC; 50 patients) and Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC; 23 patients) species were the most common NTM, and the only ones associated with fulfillment of the American Thoracic Society bacteriological criteria for NTM lung disease. The "new" species, Mycobacterium bolletii and Mycobacterium massiliense, accounted for 40% of MABSC isolates. MABSC species were isolated at all ages, with a prevalence peak between 11 and 15 years of age (5.8%), while MAC species reached their highest prevalence value among patients over 25 years of age (2.2%).

loci. Finally, we identified a major contribution of western central African Bantu speakers to the ancestry of African Americans, whose genomes present no strong signals of natural selection. Together, these results highlight the contribution of Bantu-speaking peoples to the complex genetic history of Africans and African Americans.

Abstract This contribution analyzes how men and women in France, Italy, Sweden, and the United States use their time over the life cycle and the extent to which societal and institutional contexts influence the gender division of labor. In order to test the hypothesis that contextual factors play a crucial role in shaping time allocation, this study considers countries that diverge considerably in terms of welfare state regime, employment and paid working time systems, family policies, and social norms. Using national time-use surveys for the late 1990s and early 2000s and regression techniques, the study not only finds large gender discrepancies in time use in each country at all stages of life but also determines that institutional contexts, in particular the design of family policies and employment regimes, do shape gender roles in different ways, and that Sweden displays the lowest gender gap in time allocation across the life course.

OBJECTIVES: To describe neurodevelopment at age 5 among children born preterm. DESIGN: Population based cohort study, EPIPAGE-2. SETTING: France, 2011. PARTICIPANTS: 4441 children aged 5½ born at 24-26, 27-31, and 32-34 weeks MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Severe/moderate neurodevelopmental disabilities, defined as severe/moderate cerebral palsy (Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) ≥2), or unilateral or bilateral blindness or deafness, or full scale intelligence quotient less than minus two standard deviations (Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, 4th edition). Mild neurodevelopmental disabilities, defined as mild cerebral palsy (GMFCS-1), or visual disability ≥3.2/10 and <5/10, or hearing loss <40 dB, or full scale intelligence quotient (minus two to minus one standard deviation) or developmental coordination disorders (Movement Assessment Battery for Children, 2nd edition, total score less than or equal to the fifth centile), or behavioural difficulties (strengths and difficulties questionnaire, total score greater than or equal to the 90th centile), school assistance (mainstream class with support or special school), complex developmental interventions, and parents' concerns about development. The distributions of the scores in contemporary term born children were used as reference. Results are given after multiple imputation as percentages of outcome measures with exact binomial 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Among 4441 participants, 3083 (69.4%) children were assessed. Rates of severe/moderate neurodevelopmental disabilities were 28% (95% confidence interval 23.4% to 32.2%), 19% (16.8% to 20.7%), and 12% (9.2% to 14.0%) and of mild disabilities were 38.5% (33.7% to 43.4%), 36% (33.4% to 38.1%), and 34% (30.2% to 37.4%) at 24-26, 27-31, and 32-34 weeks, respectively. Assistance at school was used by 27% (22.9% to 31.7%), 14% (12.1% to 15.9%), and 7% (4.4% to 9.0%) of children at 24-26, 27-31, and 32-34 weeks, respectively. About half of the children born at 24-26 weeks (52% (46.4% to 57.3%)) received at least one developmental intervention which decreased to 26% (21.8% to 29.4%) for those born at 32-34 weeks. Behaviour was the concern most commonly reported by parents. Rates of neurodevelopment disabilities increased as gestational age decreased and were higher in families with low socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of children born preterm, rates of severe/moderate neurodevelopmental disabilities remained high in each gestational age group. Proportions of children receiving school assistance or complex developmental interventions might have a significant impact on educational and health organisations. Parental concerns about behaviour warrant attention.

The Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) is one of the two pillars of the Generations and Gender Programme designed to improve understanding of demographic and social development and of the factors that influence these developments. This article describ

We analyzed 12 families with autosomal dominant early-onset Alzheimer' s disease (EOAD)for mutations in the coding region of the presenilin I (PSNLI) gene corresponding to the AD3 locus on chromosome 14q24.3. A total of eight missense mutations at codons 82, 115, 139, 163, 231, 264, 392, and 410 including six novel mutations, were identified in eight families. Cosegregation of the mutations with EOAD was confirmed in three families, one including 36 affected individuals. This study underlines the great allelic heterogeneity and the large distribution of the mutations within the PSNLI coding region. Our results support the notion that PSNLI is the major gene involved in autosomal dominant EOAD.

Median survival has increased in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) during the past six decades, which has led to an increased number of adults with CF. The future impact of changes in CF demographics has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of children and adults with CF in 34 European countries by 2025. Data were obtained from the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Patient Registry. Population forecasts were performed for countries that have extensive CF population coverage and at least 4 years of longitudinal data by modelling future entering and exiting flows in registry cohorts. For the other countries, population projections were performed based on assumptions from knowledge of current CF epidemiology. Western European countries' forecasts indicate that an increase in the overall number of CF patients by 2025, by approximately 50%, corresponds to an increase by 20% and by 75% in children and adults, respectively. In Eastern European countries the projections suggest a predominant increase in the CF child population, although the CF adult population would also increase.It was concluded that a large increase in the adult CF population is expected in the next decade. A significant increase in adult CF services throughout Europe is urgently required.

Abstract This paper describes recent fertility trends in European and/or Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD] countries and surveys the effects of family-friendly policies on fertility. Although these policies do seem to have an impact on fertility, their magnitude is limited. Financial benefits, whether conditional on employment status or not, have an undeniable impact on the timing of births, but their impact on the cohort overall fertility is less certain. Conversely, policies that facilitate the work-family balance seem to have a strong influence on the decision to have children or not. However, they do not always help reduce differences in behaviour between social classes. The impact of family-friendly policies is probably underestimated because of the difficulty of assessing their coherence and long-term effects. Moreover, policies do not always have proven effect because their impact is often temporary in the absence of a complete set of support that accompany families all along the childhood. The effectiveness of policies also depends on their permanency and the stability of economic environment. Stable policies can mitigate the impact of economic recession on fertility as well. Cet article décrit les tendances récentes de la fécondité dans les pays industrialisés et synthétise un ensemble de recherches analysant les effets des politiques aidant les familles sur la fécondité. Bien que ces politiques semble influencer la fécondité, la magnitude des effets est limitée. Les transfers financiers, qu'ils soient conditionnels au statut au regard de l'emploi ou non, ont un effet indéniable sur le calendrier des naissances, mais leur effet sur le niveau de fécondité attaint en fin de vie procréative est plus incertain. En revanche, les politiques qui facilitent la conciliation entre travail et vie familiale semblent avoir un impact important sur la decision d'avoir des enfants. Néanmoins, ces politiques n'aident pas toujours à réduire les différences de comportements entre groupes sociaux. L'impact de ces politiques est néanmoins vraisemblablement sous-estimé en raison de la difficulté à évaluer leur cohérence et effets de long terme. En outre, les politiques n'ont pas toujours d'effets avérés car leur impact est souvent de courte période en l'absence d'aides accompagnant les familles tout au long de l'enfance. L'efficacité des politiques dépens de leur permanence dans le temps et de la stabilité de l'environnement économique. Des politiques qui perdurent peuvent amortir les effets d'une recession économique sur la fécondité. Keywords: family policiesfertilitywork-life balanceMots-clés: politiques familialeféconditéconciliation travail et vie familiale Acknowledgements Willem Adema and the two anonymous referees are gratefully thanked for their valuable comments. The views expressed in this paper cannot be attributed to the OECD or its Member Countries: as with any remaining errors, they are the responsibility of the authors alone. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no. 217173 (REPRO). Notes 1. The total fertility rate is highly sensitive to the timing of births: children born later in the life cycle induce a decline in the TFR, and final (cohort) fertility will be underestimated. Some authors have therefore proposed TFR estimates adjusted for timing variations (Bongaarts & Feeney, Citation1998; Goldstein et al., 2009; and Kohler & Philipov, Citation2001). The value of the indicator, therefore, depends on the timing variations used as a benchmark for the adjustment. 2. It is, however, not easy to disentangle the impact of the baby bonus from those of the other measures that were introduced during the same period including family tax benefit and a new childcare rebate. 3. Their results are unstable and highly dependent on empirical estimation. In the first version of their study, these authors found that financial incentives had the biggest impact on the birth of a first child and little impact on subsequent fertility (Laroque & Salanié, 2005). In their more recent research, they find that the first and third births are the most sensitive to financial incentives (Laroque & Salanié, 2008). 4. A point made by Castles is that policies are often introduced because fertility has dropped to a very low level. If a cross-sectional analysis is applied, low fertility will be associated with countries that have recently introduced some policy initiative even though, in the longer term, the policy may be effective. Cross-sectional correlations will be misleading in such cases. 5. Preliminary data on births in 2009 confirm that many countries recorded rising numbers of births and fertility rates after 2000 first experienced stagnation or a slight decline in total births in 2009. The Eurostat projection as of late January 2010 envisions a decline in total births in 2009 by 0.1% for the European Union as compared with a rise of 2.7% in 2008.

As people live longer, ages at death are becoming more similar. This dual advance over the last two centuries, a central aim of public health policies, is a major achievement of modern civilization. Some recent exceptions to the joint rise of life expectancy and life span equality, however, make it difficult to determine the underlying causes of this relationship. Here, we develop a unifying framework to study life expectancy and life span equality over time, relying on concepts about the pace and shape of aging. We study the dynamic relationship between life expectancy and life span equality with reliable data from the Human Mortality Database for 49 countries and regions with emphasis on the long time series from Sweden. Our results demonstrate that both changes in life expectancy and life span equality are weighted totals of rates of progress in reducing mortality. This finding holds for three different measures of the variability of life spans. The weights evolve over time and indicate the ages at which reductions in mortality increase life expectancy and life span equality: the more progress at the youngest ages, the tighter the relationship. The link between life expectancy and life span equality is especially strong when life expectancy is less than 70 y. In recent decades, life expectancy and life span equality have occasionally moved in opposite directions due to larger improvements in mortality at older ages or a slowdown in declines in midlife mortality. Saving lives at ages below life expectancy is the key to increasing both life expectancy and life span equality.