National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training

In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus on numerical, graphical and qualitative methods. General classes of direct value comparison, coupling real and modelled values, preserving data patterns, indirect metrics based on parameter values, and data transformations are discussed. In practice environmental modelling requires the use and implementation of workflows that combine several methods, tailored to the model purpose and dependent upon the data and information available. A five-step procedure for performance evaluation of models is suggested, with the key elements including: (i) (re)assessment of the model's aim, scale and scope; (ii) characterisation of the data for calibration and testing; (iii) visual and other analysis to detect under- or non-modelled behaviour and to gain an overview of overall performance; (iv) selection of basic performance criteria; and (v) consideration of more advanced methods to handle problems such as systematic divergence between modelled and observed values.

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.

Abstract Water scarcity is a rapidly growing concern around the globe, but little is known about how it has developed over time. This study provides a first assessment of continuous sub-national trajectories of blue water consumption, renewable freshwater availability, and water scarcity for the entire 20 th century. Water scarcity is analysed using the fundamental concepts of shortage (impacts due to low availability per capita) and stress (impacts due to high consumption relative to availability) which indicate difficulties in satisfying the needs of a population and overuse of resources respectively. While water consumption increased fourfold within the study period, the population under water scarcity increased from 0.24 billion (14% of global population) in the 1900s to 3.8 billion (58%) in the 2000s. Nearly all sub-national trajectories show an increasing trend in water scarcity. The concept of scarcity trajectory archetypes and shapes is introduced to characterize the historical development of water scarcity and suggest measures for alleviating water scarcity and increasing sustainability. Linking the scarcity trajectories to other datasets may help further deepen understanding of how trajectories relate to historical and future drivers, and hence help tackle these evolving challenges.

Multiple‐point geostatistics is a general statistical framework to model spatial fields displaying a wide range of complex structures. In particular, it allows controlling connectivity patterns that have a critical importance for groundwater flow and transport problems. This approach involves considering data events (spatial arrangements of values) derived from a training image (TI). All data events found in the TI are usually stored in a database, which is used to retrieve conditional probabilities for the simulation. Instead, we propose to sample directly the training image for a given data event, making the database unnecessary. Our method is statistically equivalent to previous implementations, but in addition it allows extending the application of multiple‐point geostatistics to continuous variables and to multivariate problems. The method can be used for the simulation of geological heterogeneity, accounting or not for indirect observations such as geophysics. We show its applicability in the presence of complex features, nonlinear relationships between variables, and with various cases of nonstationarity. Computationally, it is fast, easy to parallelize, parsimonious in memory needs, and straightforward to implement.

Abstract The spatially and temporally variable parameters and inputs to complex groundwater models typically result in long runtimes which hinder comprehensive calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Surrogate modeling aims to provide a simpler, and hence faster, model which emulates the specified output of a more complex model in function of its inputs and parameters. In this review paper, we summarize surrogate modeling techniques in three categories: data‐driven, projection, and hierarchical‐based approaches. Data‐driven surrogates approximate a groundwater model through an empirical model that captures the input‐output mapping of the original model. Projection‐based models reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by projecting the governing equations onto a basis of orthonormal vectors. In hierarchical or multifidelity methods the surrogate is created by simplifying the representation of the physical system, such as by ignoring certain processes, or reducing the numerical resolution. In discussing the application to groundwater modeling of these methods, we note several imbalances in the existing literature: a large body of work on data‐driven approaches seemingly ignores major drawbacks to the methods; only a fraction of the literature focuses on creating surrogates to reproduce outputs of fully distributed groundwater models, despite these being ubiquitous in practice; and a number of the more advanced surrogate modeling methods are yet to be fully applied in a groundwater modeling context.

The argument that human society can decouple economic growth-defined as growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-from growth in environmental impacts is appealing. If such decoupling is possible, it means that GDP growth is a sustainable societal goal. Here we show that the decoupling concept can be interpreted using an easily understood model of economic growth and environmental impact. The simple model is compared to historical data and modelled projections to demonstrate that growth in GDP ultimately cannot be decoupled from growth in material and energy use. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. We also note that GDP is increasingly seen as a poor proxy for societal wellbeing. GDP growth is therefore a questionable societal goal. Society can sustainably improve wellbeing, including the wellbeing of its natural assets, but only by discarding GDP growth as the goal in favor of more comprehensive measures of societal wellbeing.

Increasing human activities have caused significant global ecosystem disturbances at various scales. There is an increasing need for effective techniques to quantify and detect ecological changes. Remote sensing can serve as a measurement surrogate of spatial changes in ecological conditions. This study has improved a newly-proposed remote sensing based ecological index (RSEI) with a sharpened land surface temperature image and then used the improved index to produce the time series of ecological-status images. The Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimator were employed to evaluate the significance of the trend of the RSEI time series and the direction of change. The change vector analysis (CVA) was employed to detect ecological changes based on the image series. This RSEI-CVA approach was applied to Fujian province, China to quantify and detect the ecological changes of the province in a period from 2002 to 2017 using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The result shows that the RSEI-CVA method can effectively quantify and detect spatiotemporal changes in ecological conditions of the province, which reveals an ecological improvement in the province during the study period. This is indicated by the rise of mean RSEI scores from 0.794 to 0.852 due to an increase in forest area by 7078 km2. Nevertheless, CVA-based change detection has detected ecological declines in the eastern coastal areas of the province. This study shows that the RSEI-CVA approach would serve as a prototype method to quantify and detect ecological changes and hence promote ecological change detection at various scales.

Drought is an intermittent disturbance of the water cycle that profoundly affects the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, the response of the coupled water and carbon cycles to drought and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we provide the first global synthesis of the drought effect on ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE = gross primary production (GPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)). Using two observational WUE datasets (i.e., eddy-covariance measurements at 95 sites (526 site-years) and global gridded diagnostic modelling based on existing observation and a data-adaptive machine learning approach), we find a contrasting response of WUE to drought between arid (WUE increases with drought) and semi-arid/sub-humid ecosystems (WUE decreases with drought), which is attributed to different sensitivities of ecosystem processes to changes in hydro-climatic conditions. WUE variability in arid ecosystems is primarily controlled by physical processes (i.e., evaporation), whereas WUE variability in semi-arid/sub-humid regions is mostly regulated by biological processes (i.e., assimilation). We also find that shifts in hydro-climatic conditions over years would intensify the drought effect on WUE. Our findings suggest that future drought events, when coupled with an increase in climate variability, will bring further threats to semi-arid/sub-humid ecosystems and potentially result in biome reorganization, starting with low-productivity and high water-sensitivity grassland.

Changes in lake hydrological regimes and the associated impacts on water supplies and ecosystems are internationally recognized issues. During the past decade, the persistent dryness of Poyang Lake (the largest freshwater lake in China) has caused water supply and irrigation crises for the 12.4 million inhabitants of the region. There is conjecture as to whether this dryness is caused by climate variability and/or human activities. This study examines long-term datasets of catchment inflow and Lake outflow, and employs a physically-based hydrodynamic model to explore catchment and Yangtze River controls on the Lake’s hydrology. Lake water levels fell to their lowest during 2001–2010 relative to previous decades. The average Lake size and volume reduced by 154 km2 and 11 × 108 m3 during the same period, compared to those for the preceding period (1970–2000). Model simulations demonstrated that the drainage effect of the Yangtze River was the primary causal factor. Modeling also revealed that, compared to climate variability impacts on the Lake catchment, modifications to Yangtze River flows from the Three Gorges Dam have had a much greater impact on the seasonal (September–October) dryness of the Lake. Yangtze River effects are attenuated in the Lake with distance from the River, but nonetheless propagate some 100 km to the Lake’s upstream limit. Proposals to build additional dams in the upper Yangtze River and its tributaries are expected to impose significant challenges for the management of Poyang Lake. Hydraulic engineering to modify the flow regime between the Lake and the Yangtze River would somewhat resolve the seasonal dryness of the Lake, but will likely introduce other issues in terms of water quality and aquatic ecosystem health, requiring considerable further research.

Target 6.4 of the recently adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) deals with the reduction of water scarcity. To monitor progress towards this target, two indicators are used: Indicator 6.4.1 measuring water use efficiency and 6.4.2 measuring the level of water stress (WS). This paper aims to identify whether the currently proposed indicator 6.4.2 considers the different elements that need to be accounted for in a WS indicator. WS indicators compare water use with water availability. We identify seven essential elements: 1) both gross and net water abstraction (or withdrawal) provide important information to understand WS; 2) WS indicators need to incorporate environmental flow requirements (EFR); 3) temporal and 4) spatial disaggregation is required in a WS assessment; 5) both renewable surface water and groundwater resources, including their interaction, need to be accounted for as renewable water availability; 6) alternative available water resources need to be accounted for as well, like fossil groundwater and desalinated water; 7) WS indicators need to account for water storage in reservoirs, water recycling and managed aquifer recharge. Indicator 6.4.2 considers many of these elements, but there is need for improvement. It is recommended that WS is measured based on net abstraction as well, in addition to currently only measuring WS based on gross abstraction. It does incorporate EFR. Temporal and spatial disaggregation is indeed defined as a goal in more advanced monitoring levels, in which it is also called for a differentiation between surface and groundwater resources. However, regarding element 6 and 7 there are some shortcomings for which we provide recommendations. In addition, indicator 6.4.2 is only one indicator, which monitors blue WS, but does not give information on green or green-blue water scarcity or on water quality. Within the SDG indicator framework, some of these topics are covered with other indicators.

Introduction It is well documented that the prevalence of venous leg ulcers (VLUs) is increasing, coinciding with an ageing population. Accurate global prevalence of VLUs is difficult to estimate due to the range of methodologies used in studies and accuracy of reporting. (1) Venous ulceration is the most common type of leg ulceration and a significant clinical problem, affecting approximately 1% of the population and 3% of people over 80 years of age (2) in westernised countries. Moreover, the global prevalence of VLUs is predicted to escalate dramatically, as people are living longer, often with multiple comorbidities. Recent figures on the prevalence of VLUs are based on a small number of studies, conducted in Western countries, and the evidence is weak. However, it is estimated that 93% of VLUs will heal in 12 months, and 7% remain unhealed after five years. (3) Furthermore, the recurrence rate within 3 months after wound closure is as high as 70%. (4) (-6) Thus, cost-effective adjunct evidence-based treatment strategies and services are needed to help prevent these ulcers, facilitate healing when they occur and prevent recurrence. The impact of a VLU represents social, personal, financial and psychological costs on the individual and further economic drain on the health-care system. This brings the challenge of providing a standardised leg ulcer service which delivers evidence-based treatment for the patient and their ulcer. It is recognised there are variations in practice and barriers preventing the implementation of best practice. There are patients not receiving appropriate and timely treatment in the initial development of VLUs, effective management of their VLU and preventing recurrence once the VLU has healed. Health-care professionals (HCPs) and organisations must have confidence in the development process of clinical practice guidelines and have ownership of these guidelines to ensure those of the highest quality guide their practice. These systematic judgments can assist in policy development, and decision making, improve communication, reduce errors and improve patient outcomes. There is an abundance of studies and guidelines that are available and regularly updated, however, there is still variation in the quality of the services offered to patients with a VLU. There are also variations in the evidence and some recommendations contradict each other, which can cause confusion and be a barrier to implementation. (7) The difference in health-care organisational structures, management support and the responsibility of VLU management can vary in different countries, often causing confusion and a barrier to seeking treatment. These factors further complicate the guideline implementation process, which is generally known to be a challenge with many diseases. (8).

Abstract River‐groundwater interactions are at the core of a wide range of major contemporary challenges, including the provision of high‐quality drinking water in sufficient quantities, the loss of biodiversity in river ecosystems, or the management of environmental flow regimes. This paper reviews state of the art approaches in characterizing and modeling river and groundwater interactions. Our review covers a wide range of approaches, including remote sensing to characterize the streambed, emerging methods to measure exchange fluxes between rivers and groundwater, and developments in several disciplines relevant to the river‐groundwater interface. We discuss approaches for automated calibration, and real‐time modeling, which improve the simulation and understanding of river‐groundwater interactions. Although the integration of these various approaches and disciplines is advancing, major research gaps remain to be filled to allow more complete and quantitative integration across disciplines. New possibilities for generating realistic distributions of streambed properties, in combination with more data and novel data types, have great potential to improve our understanding and predictive capabilities for river‐groundwater systems, especially in combination with the integrated simulation of the river and groundwater flow as well as calibration methods. Understanding the implications of different data types and resolution, the development of highly instrumented field sites, ongoing model development, and the ultimate integration of models and data are important future research areas. These developments are required to expand our current understanding to do justice to the complexity of natural systems.

Abstract Distinct plumes of septic system‐impacted ground water at two single‐family homes located on shallow unconfined sand aquifers in Ontario showed elevated levels of Cl − , NO 3 − , Na + , Ca 2+ , K + , alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon and depressed levels of pH and dissolved oxygen. At the Cambridge site, in use 12 years, the plume had sharp lateral and vertical boundaries and was more than 130 m in length with a uniform width of about 10 m. As a result of low transverse dispersion in the aquifer, mobile plume solutes such as NO 3 − and Na + occurred at more than 50 percent of the source concentrations 130 m downgradient from the septic system. At the Muskoka site, in use three years, the plume also had discrete boundaries reflecting low transverse dispersion. After 1.5 years of system operation, the Muskoka plume began discharging to a river located 20 m from the tile field. Almost complete NOs attenuation was observed within the last 2 m of the plume flowpath before discharge to the river. This was attributed to denitrification occurring within organic matter‐enriched riverbed sediments. The very weakly dispersive nature of the two aquifers was consistent with the results of recently reported natural‐gradient tracer tests in sands. Therefore, for many unconfined sand aquifers, the minimum distance‐to‐well regulations for permitting septic systems in most parts of North America should not be expected to be adequately protective of well‐water quality in situations where mobile contaminants such as NOs are not attenuated by chemical or microbiological processes.

In many regions around the world, groundwater is the key source of water for some vegetation species, and its availability and dynamics can define vegetation composition and distribution. In recent years the interaction between groundwater and vegetation has seen a renewed attention because of the impact of groundwater extraction on natural ecosystems' health and increasing interest in the restoration of riparian zones and wetlands. The literature provides studies that approach this problem from very different angles. Information on the vegetation species that are likely to depend on groundwater and the physical characteristics of such species can be found in a large body of literature in ecology and plant physiology. Environmental engineers, hydrologists, and geoscientists are more focused on ecosystem restoration and the estimation of a catchment's water balance, for which the groundwater transpired by vegetation might be an important component. Here we join together these different bodies of literature with the aim of providing the state of knowledge on groundwater‐dependent vegetation. We describe the physiological features that characterize groundwater‐dependent vegetation, review different methods to study vegetation water use in the field, discuss recent advances in the understanding of how groundwater levels might determine vegetation composition, and present a summary of the available mathematical models that include the interaction between groundwater levels and vegetative water use. Several future research directions are identified, such as the quantification and modeling of the partitioning of transpiration between unsaturated and saturated zones and the development of integrated models able to link hydrology, ecology, and geomorphology.

Wave and tide are important forcing factors that typically coexist in coastal environments. A numerical study was conducted to investigate individual and combined effects of these forces on flow and mixing processes in a nearshore subterranean estuary. A hydrodynamic model based on the shallow water equations was used to simulate dynamic sea level oscillations driven by wave and tide. The oscillating sea levels determined the seaward boundary condition of the coastal aquifer, where variably saturated, variable density flow was modeled. The simulation results showed that waves induced an onshore upward tilt in the phase‐averaged sea level (wave setup). The resulting hydraulic gradient generated pore water circulations in the nearshore zone of the coastal aquifer, which led to formation of an upper saline plume (USP) similar to that formed due to tides. However, mixing of recirculating seawater in the USP with underlying fresh groundwater was less intensive under the high‐frequency wave oscillations. In the case of combined forcing, wave‐induced circulations coupled with the intratidal flows strengthened the averaged, circulating pore water flows in the nearshore zone over the tidal period. The circulating flows increased exchange between the subterranean estuary and ocean, contributing 61% of the total submarine groundwater discharge for the simulated condition in comparison with the 40% and 49% proportions caused by the same but separate tidal and wave forcing, respectively. The combined forces also created a more extensive USP with the freshwater discharge zone shifted farther seaward. The freshwater flow paths in the intertidal subterranean estuary were modified with a significant increase in the associated transit times. The interplay of wave and tide led to increased mixing between discharging fresh groundwater and recirculating seawater. These results further demonstrate the complexity of nearshore groundwater systems and have implications for future investigations on the fate of land‐sourced chemicals in the subterranean estuary prior to discharge to the ocean.

The Three‐Georges Dam holds many records in the history of engineering. While the dam has produced benefits in terms of flood control, hydropower generation and increased navigation capacity of the Yangtze River, serious questions have been raised concerning its impact on both upstream and downstream ecosystems. It has been suggested that the dam operation intensifies the extremes of wet and dry conditions in the downstream Poyang Lake, and affects adversely important local wetlands. A floodgate has been proposed to maintain the lake water level by controlling the flow between the Poyang Lake and Yangtze River. Using extensive hydrological data and generalized linear statistical models, we demonstrated that the dam operation induces major changes in the downstream river discharge near the dam, including an average “water loss”. The analysis also revealed considerable effects on the Poyang Lake water level, particularly a reduced level over the dry period from late summer to autumn. However, the dam impact needs to be further assessed based on long‐term monitoring of the lake ecosystem, covering a wide range of parameters related to hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the lake, water quality, geomorphological characteristics, aquatic biota and their habitat, wetland vegetation and associated fauna.

Drought-induced tree mortality is occurring across all forested continents and is expected to increase worldwide during the coming century. Regional-scale forest die-off influences terrestrial albedo, carbon and water budgets, and land-surface energy partitioning. Although increased temperatures during drought are widely identified as a critical contributor to exacerbated tree mortality associated with "global-change-type drought", corresponding changes in vapor pressure deficit (D) have rarely been considered explicitly and have not been disaggregated from that of temperature per se. Here, we apply a detailed mechanistic soil-plant-atmosphere model to examine the impacts of drought, increased air temperature (+2°C or +5°C), and increased vapor pressure deficit (D; +1 kPa or +2.5 kPa), singly and in combination, on net primary productivity (NPP) and transpiration and forest responses, especially soil moisture content, leaf water potential, and stomatal conductance. We show that increased D exerts a larger detrimental effect on transpiration and NPP, than increased temperature alone, with or without the imposition of a 3-month drought. Combined with drought, the effect of increased D on NPP was substantially larger than that of drought plus increased temperature. Thus, the number of days when NPP was zero across the 2-year simulation was 13 or 14 days in the control and increased temperature scenarios, but increased to approximately 200 days when D was increased. Drought alone increased the number of days of zero NPP to 88, but drought plus increased temperature did not increase the number of days. In contrast, drought and increased D resulted in the number of days when NPP = 0 increasing to 235 (+1 kPa) or 304 days (+2.5 kPa). We conclude that correct identification of the causes of global change-type mortality events requires explicit consideration of the influence of D as well as its interaction with drought and temperature. This study disaggregates the influence of temperature and vapour pressure deficit on net primary productivity of an Australian woodland and their interactions with drought as potential causal agents in recent widespread forest mortality.

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29-year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature-driven phenological models.

Studies of seawater intrusion in unconfined coastal aquifers typically neglect oceanic oscillations such as tides and assume a static seaward boundary condition defined by the mean sea level. Laboratory experiments and numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the influence of tidal oscillations on the behavior of the saltwater wedge. For the conditions examined, the experiments showed that an upper saline plume formed in the intertidal zone due to tide‐induced seawater circulation. The presence of the upper saline plume shifted the fresh groundwater discharge zone seaward to the low‐tide mark and restricted the intrusion of the saltwater wedge. The overall seawater intrusion extent, as indicated by the wedge toe location, was reduced significantly compared with the nontidal (static) case. Results from the numerical model matched these experimental observations and further demonstrated the similar type of tidal influence on the saltwater wedge in a field‐scale aquifer system. The Glover (1959) solution for predicting the saltwater wedge was modified to account for the tidal effect by including the tide‐induced circulation as a “recharge” to the aquifer. The findings highlight the significant impact of the tide in modulating the groundwater behavior and salt‐freshwater dynamics, not only within but also landward of the intertidal zone.

In this paper, simple indicators of the propensity for sea water intrusion (SWI) to occur (referred to as "SWI vulnerability indicators") are devised. The analysis is based on an existing analytical solution for the steady-state position of a sharp fresh water-salt water interface. Interface characteristics, that is, the wedge toe location and sea water volume, are used in quantifying SWI in both confined and unconfined aquifers. Rates-of-change (partial derivatives of the analytical solution) in the wedge toe or sea water volume are used to quantify the aquifer vulnerability to various stress situations, including (1) sea-level rise; (2) change in recharge (e.g., due to climate change); and (3) change in seaward discharge. A selection of coastal aquifer cases is used to apply the SWI vulnerability indicators, and the proposed methodology produces interpretations of SWI vulnerability that are broadly consistent with more comprehensive investigations. Several inferences regarding SWI vulnerability arise from the analysis, including: (1) sea-level rise impacts are more extensive in aquifers with head-controlled rather than flux-controlled inland boundaries, whereas the opposite is true for recharge change impacts; (2) sea-level rise does not induce SWI in constant-discharge confined aquifers; (3) SWI vulnerability varies depending on the causal factor, and therefore vulnerability composites are needed that differentiate vulnerability to such threats as sea-level rise, climate change, and changes in seaward groundwater discharge. We contend that the approach is an improvement over existing methods for characterizing SWI vulnerability, because the method has theoretical underpinnings and yet calculations are simple, although the coastal aquifer conceptualization is highly idealized.