National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

In tectonically active mountain belts, earthquake-triggered landslides deliver large amounts of sediment to rivers. We quantify the geomorphic impact of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, which triggered >20,000 landslides. Coseismic weakening of substrate material caused increased landsliding during subsequent typhoons. Most coseismic landslides remained confined to hillslopes. Downslope transport of sediment into the channel network occurred during later storms. The sequential processes have led to a factor-of-four increase in unit sediment concentration in rivers draining the epicentral area and increased the magnitude and frequency of hyperpycnal sediment delivery to the ocean. Four years after the earthquake, rates of hillslope mass wasting remain elevated in the epicentral area.

The main purpose of this study is to examine how risk perception is influenced by the type of disaster (flood or landslide) and victim characteristics. The data reported here are based on the National Risk Perception Survey (NRPS) that was administered for the victims and the general public in Taiwan in 2004. In that year, many towns in Taiwan were seriously affected by floods and landslides, resulting in huge economic losses and fatalities. The primary findings are: (1) the victims and the general public are concerned about the different potential hazards that might affect their residential area, (2) the negative associations between the sense of controllability and the perceived impact is high for landslide victims, but not for flood victims, and (3) disaster type, gender, and previously experienced disasters are good predictors of victims' attitudes toward natural disasters.

Results of an experimental study on the drag force measurement involving a single stem kept in a channel flow stem array are presented. The data collected herein and those from literature indicate that the stem drag coefficient logarithmically increases with the areal stem density. The stem Reynolds number is noticed to have only a small effect on the stem drag coefficient which was however found to depend on the stem staggering pattern. The drag coefficient is less influenced by the Froude number in subcritical flows but it decreases with the Froude number in supercritical flows. New relationships are proposed for the stem drag coefficient which appear useful in partitioning the total flow resistance of vegetated bed streams into the stem and the bed particle resistances. The bed particle resistance applies to sediment transport through such vegetated flows for which the average flow velocity is available.

This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly.

Landslides are typically triggered by earthquakes or rainfall occasionally a rainfall event followed by an earthquake or vice versa. Yet, most of the works presented in the past decade have been largely focused at the single event-susceptibility model. Such type of modeling is found insufficient in places where the triggering mechanism involves both factors such as one found in the Chuetsu region, Japan. Generally, a single event model provides only limited enlightenment of landslide spatial distribution and thus understate the potential combination-effect interrelation of earthquakes- and rainfall-triggered landslides. This study explores the both-effect of landslides triggered by Chuetsu-Niigata earthquake followed by a heavy rainfall event through examining multiple traditional statistical models and data mining for understanding the coupling effects. This paper aims to compare the abilities of the statistical probabilistic likelihood-frequency ratio (PLFR) model, information value (InV) method, certainty factors (CF), artificial neural network (ANN) and ensemble support vector machine (SVM) for the landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) using high-resolution-light detection and ranging digital elevation model (LiDAR DEM). Firstly, the landslide inventory map including 8459 landslide polygons was compiled from multiple aerial photographs and satellite imageries. These datasets were then randomly split into two parts: 70% landslide polygons (5921) for training model and the remaining polygons for validation (2538). Next, seven causative factors were classified into three categories namely topographic factors, hydrological factors and geological factors. We then identified the associations between landslide occurrence and causative factors to produce LSM. Finally, the accuracies of five models were validated by the area under curves (AUC) method. The AUC values of five models vary from 0.77 to 0.87. Regarding the capability of performance, the proposed SVM is promising for constructing the regional landslide-prone potential areas using both types of landslides. Additionally, the result of our LSM can be applied for similar areas which have been experiencing both rainfall-earthquake landslides.

Because of persistent collisions between the Philippine Sea plate and the Eurasian plate, Taiwan has been constantly threatened by large and devastating earthquakes that often cause large losses of life and property. To reduce losses caused

Spatially explicit information on forest management at a global scale is critical for understanding the status of forests, for planning sustainable forest management and restoration, and conservation activities. Here, we produce the first reference data set and a prototype of a globally consistent forest management map with high spatial detail on the most prevalent forest management classes such as intact forests, managed forests with natural regeneration, planted forests, plantation forest (rotation up to 15 years), oil palm plantations, and agroforestry. We developed the reference dataset of 226 K unique locations through a series of expert and crowdsourcing campaigns using Geo-Wiki ( https://www.geo-wiki.org/ ). We then combined the reference samples with time series from PROBA-V satellite imagery to create a global wall-to-wall map of forest management at a 100 m resolution for the year 2015, with forest management class accuracies ranging from 58% to 80%. The reference data set and the map present the status of forest ecosystems and can be used for investigating the value of forests for species, ecosystems and their services.

At the end of July 2013, a series of severe thunderstorms associated with heavy rainfall, severe wind gusts and large hail affected parts of Germany. On 28 July 2013, two supercells formed almost simultaneously in southern Germany, from which only the more southerly cell produced hailstones up to 10 cm in diameter on a hailswath approximately 120 km long and 15–20 km wide. For the insurance industry, this event, with losses of more than EUR 1 billion, was one of the most expensive natural disasters that has ever occurred in Germany. This article investigates the creation, temporal evolution and effects of the most severe supercell that day by considering and merging radar and satellite data, eyewitness reports, insurance loss data and numerical model studies. Observations of hail at ground level fit very well with a cold‐ring‐shaped structure in the cloud‐top brightness temperature observed by a geostationary satellite imager. Various simulations conducted with the convection‐permitting COnsortium for Small‐scale MOdeling (COSMO) revealed that the track of the hailstorm could be reproduced only when convection was triggered artificially by two warm bubbles that produced single cells that were precursors of the supercell. The model results suggested that the supercell developed near a pre‐existing single cell through low‐level flow convergence in an environment with moderate CAPE but substantial wind shear and storm‐relative helicity, both of which persisted for several hours in the area in which the supercell moved.

Abstract An important issue in the formation of concentric eyewalls in a tropical cyclone is the development of a symmetric structure from asymmetric convection. It is proposed herein, with the aid of a nondivergent barotropic model, that concentric vorticity structures result from the interaction between a small and strong inner vortex (the tropical cyclone core) and neighboring weak vortices (the vorticity induced by the moist convection outside the central vortex of a tropical cyclone). The results highlight the pivotal role of the vorticity strength of the inner core vortex in maintaining itself, and in stretching, organizing, and stabilizing the outer vorticity field. Specifically, the core vortex induces a differential rotation across the large and weak vortex to strain out the latter into a vorticity band surrounding the former. The straining out of a large, weak vortex into a concentric vorticity band can also result in the contraction of the outer tangential wind maximum. The stability of the outer band is related to the Fjørtoft sufficient condition for stability because the strong inner vortex can cause the wind at the inner edge to be stronger than the outer edge, which allows the vorticity band and therefore the concentric structure to be sustained. Moreover, the inner vortex must possess high vorticity not only to be maintained against any deformation field induced by the outer vortices but also to maintain a smaller enstrophy cascade and to resist the merger process into a monopole. The negative vorticity anomaly in the moat serves as a “shield” or a barrier to the farther inward mixing the outer vorticity field. The binary vortex experiments described in this paper suggest that the formation of a concentric vorticity structure requires 1) a very strong core vortex with a vorticity at least 6 times stronger than the neighboring vortices, 2) a large neighboring vorticity area that is larger than the core vortex, and 3) a separation distance between the neighboring vorticity field and the core vortex that is within 3 to 4 times the core vortex radius.

Low-lying coastal regions and their populations are at risk during storm surge events and high freshwater discharges from upriver. An integrated storm surge and flood inundation modeling system was used to simulate storm surge and inundation in the Tsengwen River basin and the adjacent coastal area in southern Taiwan. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with an unstructured grid was used, which was driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries and freshwater discharge at the upriver boundary. The model was validated against the observed water levels for three typhoon events. The simulation results for the model were in reasonable agreement with the observational data. The model was then applied to investigate the effects of a storm surge, freshwater discharge, and a storm surge combined with freshwater discharge during an extreme typhoon event. The super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) was artificially shifted to hit Taiwan: the modeling results showed that the inundation area and depth would cause severe overbank flow and coastal flooding for a 200 year return period flow. A high-resolution grid model is essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and inundation.

Abstract Many landslides are triggered by rainfall. Previous studies of the relationship between landslides and rainfall have concentrated on deriving minimum rainfall thresholds that are likely to trigger landslides. Though useful, these minimum thresholds derived from a log–log plot do not offer any measure of confidence in a landslide monitoring or warning system. This study presents a new and innovative method for incorporating rainfall into landslide modelling and prediction. The method involves three steps: compiling radar reflectivity data in a QPESUMS (quantitative precipitation estimation and segregation using multiple sensors) system during a typhoon (tropical hurricane) event, estimating rainfall from radar data and using rainfall intensity and rainfall duration as explanatory variables to develop a landslide logit model. Given the logit model, this paper discusses ways in which the model can be used for computing probabilities of landslide occurrence for a real‐time monitoring system or a warning system, and for delineating and mapping landslides. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A numerical model is developed in this study with various components for simulating the complex flow phenomena in urban drainage basins. The model integrates the HEC-1 model, a 1-D dynamic channel-flow model, a 2-D non-inertia overland-flow model and the SWMM model to reflect the hydraulic processes in areas with different characteristics. The inundation of underground infrastructure during flood is also considered in the model. The typhoon Nari event in 2001, which resulted in severe flood in downtown Taipei, is simulated by the model. The result is compared with the survey records of flooded areas, which reveals the storage effect of underground infrastrucures is significant to the simulation results of highly developed urban areas.

In this study, two artificial neural network models (i.e., a radial basis function neural network, RBFN, and an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system approach, ANFIS) and a multilinear regression (MLR) model were developed to simulate the DO, TP, Chl a , and SD in the Mingder Reservoir of central Taiwan. The input variables of the neural network and the MLR models were determined using linear regression. The performances were evaluated using the RBFN, ANFIS, and MLR models based on statistical errors, including the mean absolute error, the root mean square error, and the correlation coefficient, computed from the measured and the model-simulated DO, TP, Chl a , and SD values. The results indicate that the performance of the ANFIS model is superior to those of the MLR and RBFN models. The study results show that the neural network using the ANFIS model is suitable for simulating the water quality variables with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the ANFIS model can be used as a valuable tool for reservoir management in Taiwan.

Empirical evidence suggests that the effects of anthropogenic climate change, and heat in particular, could have a significant impact on mental health. This article investigates the correlation between heatwaves and/or relative humidity and suicide (fatal intentional self-harm) on a global scale. The covariance between heat/humidity and suicide was modelled using a negative binomial Poisson regression with data from 60 countries between 1979-2016. Statistically significant increases and decreases in suicide were found, as well as many cases with no significant correlation. We found that relative humidity showed a more significant correlation with suicide compared to heatwaves and that both younger age groups and women seemed to be more significantly affected by changes in humidity and heatwave counts in comparison with the rest of the population. Further research is needed to provide a larger and more consistent basis for epidemiological studies; to understand better the connections among heat, humidity and mental health; and to explore in more detail which population groups are particularly impacted and why.

This paper interrogates the aspects of islandness labelled “vulnerability” and “resilience” through analysing the concepts’ definitions from a development perspective. The investigation is conducted through the lens of four assumed islandness aspects: boundedness, smallness, isolation and littorality. Discussion examines how and why core concepts of vulnerability and resilience have emerged from island studies, demonstrating how these two aspects of islandness are socially and culturally constructed, can influence development approaches taken and are enhanced by island geographies. Insights from island geographies, and comparing island and non‐island perspectives, show how manufactured islands of vulnerability and resilience can slant discourses and reinforce stereotypes. Island geographies in their diversity teach that vulnerability and resilience, being neither opposites nor independent variables nor objective variables, are most supportive of island development endeavours when accepted as being subjective, contextualised and nuanced. The lessons yield advice on ensuring that development contexts for vulnerability and resilience are widened and deepened, drawing strength rather than constraints from the four assumed aspects of islandness. Within boundedness, smallness, isolation and littorality, the two aspects vulnerability and resilience can be empowering and disempowering for development.

Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) was used for this case study because it is the most intense typhoon that made landfall in Taiwan in the past decade. Winds extracted from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSV2) and ERA5 datasets and merged with a parametric typhoon model using two hybrid techniques served as the meteorological conditions for driving a coupled wave-circulation model. The computed significant wave heights were compared with the observations recorded at three wave buoys in the eastern waters of Taiwan. Model performance in terms of significant wave height was also investigated by employing the CFSV2 winds under varying spatial and temporal resolutions. The results of the numerical experiments reveal that the simulated storm wave heights tended to decrease significantly due to the lower spatial resolution of the hourly winds from the CFSV2 dataset; however, the variations in the storm wave height simulations were less sensitive to the temporal resolution of the wind field. Introducing the combination of the CFSV2 and the parametric typhoon winds greatly improved the storm wave simulations, and similar phenomena can be found in the exploitation of the ERA5 dataset blended into the parametric wind field. The overall performance of the hybrid winds derived from ERA5 was better than that from the CFSV2, especially in the outer region of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016).

Natural hazards are complex phenomena that can occur independently, simultaneously, or in a series as cascading events. For any particular region, numerous single hazard maps may not necessarily provide all information regarding impending hazards to the stakeholders for preparedness and planning. A multi-hazard map furnishes composite illustration of the natural hazards of varying magnitude, frequency, and spatial distribution. Thus, multi-hazard risk assessment is performed to depict the holistic natural hazards scenario of any particular region. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, multi-hazard risk assessments are rarely conducted in Nepal although multiple natural hazards strike the country almost every year. In this study, floods, landslides, earthquakes, and urban fire hazards are used to assess multi-hazard risk in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is then integrated with the Geographical Information System (GIS). First, flood, landslide, earthquake, and urban fire hazard assessments are performed individually and then superimposed to obtain multi-hazard risk. Multi-hazard risk assessment of Kathmandu Valley is performed by pair-wise comparison of the four natural hazards. The sum of observations concludes that densely populated areas, old settlements, and the central valley have high to very high level of multi-hazard risk.

Hot spots exist and may trigger temperature gaps at the magnitude of several hundred degrees Celsius in certain microwave heating.

The state of health (SOH) is a crucial indicator of lithium-ion batteries. A battery cycle and calendar life are critical for electric vehicle batteries. Complex interactions occur between the SOH and internal resistance of a battery. In this study, several ternary lithium-ion battery charge discharge experiments were performed to investigate the effects of the ambient temperature, discharge rate, and depth of discharge on a battery's internal resistance. An SOH prediction model was then constructed and used to evaluate the remaining capacity of the electric vehicle battery. The model was verified through various experiments, and a comparison of experimental and model-derived data revealed a favorable agreement. Thus, the model accurately predicted the SOH of a ternary lithium-ion battery.

Abstract The mesoscale features of 124 tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific Ocean during 1999–2004 are investigated through large-scale analyses, satellite infrared brightness temperature (TB), and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic wind data. Based on low-level wind flow and surge direction, the formation cases are classified into six synoptic patterns: easterly wave (EW), northeasterly flow (NE), coexistence of northeasterly and southwesterly flow (NE–SW), southwesterly flow (SW), monsoon confluence (MC), and monsoon shear (MS). Then the general convection characteristics and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activities associated with these formation cases are studied under this classification scheme. Convection processes in the EW cases are distinguished from the monsoon-related formations in that the convection is less deep and closer to the formation center. Five characteristic temporal evolutions of the deep convection are identified: (i) single convection event, (ii) two convection events, (iii) three convection events, (iv) gradual decrease in TB, and (v) fluctuating TB, or a slight increase in TB before formation. Although no dominant temporal evolution differentiates cases in the six synoptic patterns, evolutions ii and iii seem to be the common routes taken by the monsoon-related formations. The overall percentage of cases with MCS activity at multiple times is 63%, and in 35% of cases more than one MCS coexisted. Most of the MC and MS cases develop multiple MCSs that lead to several episodes of deep convection. These two patterns have the highest percentage of coexisting MCSs such that potential interaction between these systems may play a role in the formation process. The MCSs in the monsoon-related formations are distributed around the center, except in the NE–SW cases in which clustering of MCSs is found about 100–200 km east of the center during the 12 h before formation. On average only one MCS occurs during an EW formation, whereas the mean value is around two for the other monsoon-related patterns. Both the mean lifetime and time of first appearance of MCS in EW are much shorter than those developed in other synoptic patterns, which indicates that the overall formation evolution in the EW case is faster. Moreover, this MCS is most likely to be found within 100 km east of the center 12 h before formation. The implications of these results to internal mechanisms of tropical cyclone formation are discussed in light of other recent mesoscale studies.