NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Peer Reviewed

Phytoplankton can become limited by the availability of nutrients when light and temperature are adequate and loss rates are not excessive. The current paradigms for nutrient limitations in freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments are quite different. A review of the experimental and observational data used to infer P or N limitation of phytoplankton growth indicates that P limitation in freshwater environments can be demonstrated rigorously at several hierarchical levels of system complexity, from algal cultures to whole lakes. A similarly rigorous demonstration of N limitation has not been achieved for marine waters. Therefore, we conclude that the extent and severity of N limitation in the marine environment remain an open question. Culture studies have established that internal cellular concentrations of nutrients determine phytoplankton growth rates, and these studies have shown that it is often difficult to relate growth rates to external concentrations, especially in natural situations. This should lead to a greater reliance on the composition of particulate matter and biomass‐based physiological rates to infer nutrient limitation. Such measurements have demonstrated their utility in a wide variety of freshwater and marine environments, and, most importantly, they can be applied to systems that are difficult to manipulate experimentally or budget accurately. Dissolved nutrient concentrations are most useful in determining nutrient loading rates of aquatic ecosystems. The relative proportions of nutrients supplied to phytoplankton can be a strong selective force shaping phytoplankton communities and affecting the biomass yield per unit of limiting nutrient.

In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.

Freeze and breakup dates of ice on lakes and rivers provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier breakup around the Northern Hemisphere from 1846 to 1995. Over these 150 years, changes in freeze dates averaged 5.8 days per 100 years later, and changes in breakup dates averaged 6.5 days per 100 years earlier; these translate to increasing air temperatures of about 1.2°C per 100 years. Interannual variability in both freeze and breakup dates has increased since 1950. A few longer time series reveal reduced ice cover (a warming trend) beginning as early as the 16th century, with increasing rates of change after about 1850.

Abstract In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite‐derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade −1 ) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice‐covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade −1 ) to ice‐free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade −1 ). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Relieving phosphorus loading is a key management tool for controlling Lake Erie eutrophication. During the 1960s and 1970s, increased phosphorus inputs degraded water quality and reduced central basin hypolimnetic oxygen levels which, in turn, eliminated thermal habitat vital to cold-water organisms and contributed to the extirpation of important benthic macroinvertebrate prey species for fishes. In response to load reductions initiated in 1972, Lake Erie responded quickly with reduced water-column phosphorus concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, and bottom-water hypoxia (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/l). Since the mid-1990s, cyanobacteria blooms increased and extensive hypoxia and benthic algae returned. We synthesize recent research leading to guidance for addressing this re-eutrophication, with particular emphasis on central basin hypoxia. We document recent trends in key eutrophication-related properties, assess their likely ecological impacts, and develop load response curves to guide revised hypoxia-based loading targets called for in the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Reducing central basin hypoxic area to levels observed in the early 1990s (ca. 2000 km2) requires cutting total phosphorus loads by 46% from the 2003–2011 average or reducing dissolved reactive phosphorus loads by 78% from the 2005–2011 average. Reductions to these levels are also protective of fish habitat. We provide potential approaches for achieving those new loading targets, and suggest that recent load reduction recommendations focused on western basin cyanobacteria blooms may not be sufficient to reduce central basin hypoxia to 2000 km2.

We describe, explain, and "predict" dispersal and ecosystem impacts of six Ponto-Caspian endemic species that recently invaded the Great Lakes via ballast water. The zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha, and quagga mussel, Dreissena bugensis, continue to colonize hard and soft substrates of the Great Lakes and are changing ecosystem function through mechanisms of ecosystem engineering (increased water clarity and reef building), fouling native mussels, high particle filtration rate with selective rejection of colonial cyanobacteria in pseudofeces, alteration of nutrient ratios, and facilitation of the rapid spread of their Ponto-Caspian associates, the benthic amphipod Echinogammarus ischnus and the round goby, Neogobius melanostomus, which feeds on zebra mussels. The tubenose goby,Proterorhinus marmoratus, which does not feed on zebra mussels, has not spread rapidly. Impacts of these benthic invaders vary with site: in some shallow areas, habitat changes and the Dreissena [Formula: see text] round goby [Formula: see text] piscivore food chain have improved conditions for certain native game fishes and waterfowl; in offshore waters, Dreissena is competing for settling algae with the native amphipod Diporeia spp., which are disappearing to the detriment of the native deep-water fish community. The predatory cladoceran Cercopagis pengoi may compete with small fishes for zooplankton and increase food-chain length.

Nutrient enrichment and consequent alteration of nutrient biogeochernical cycles is a serious problem in both freshwater and marine systems. The response of aquatic systems to additions of N and P is generally to increase algal biomass. The partitioning of these nutrients into different functional groups of autotrophic organisms is dependent upon both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. A common response to nutrient loading in northern temperate aquatic ecosystems is an increase in diatom biomass. Because nutrient enrichment generally leads to increases in water column concentrations of total N and total P (and not Si) such nutrient loading can lead to transient nutrient limitation of diatom biomass due to lack of dissolved silicate (DSi). Increased production of diatom biomass can lead to an increased accumulation of biogenic silica in sediments, ultimately resulting in a decline in the water column reservoir of DSi. Such biogeochemical changes in the silica cycle induced by eutrophication were first reported for the North American Laurentian Great Lakes. However, these changes are not a regional problem confined to the Great Lakes, but occur in many freshwater and marine systems throughout the world. Here we summarize the effects of anthropogenic modification of silica biogeochemical cycles for the North American Laurentian Great Lakes, describe some of the biogeochemical changes occurring in other systems, and discuss some of the ecological implications of a reduction in water column DSi concentrations, including changes in species composition, as DSi concentrations become limiting to diatom growth and biomass, changes in food web dynamics, and altered nutnent-recycling processes.

Microcystis aeruginosa, a planktonic colonial cyanobacterium, was not abundant in the 2-year period before zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) establishment in Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron) but became abundant in three of five summers subsequent of mussel establishment. Using novel methods, we determined clearance, capture, and assimilation rates for zebra mussels feeding on natural and laboratory M. aeruginosa strains offered alone or in combination with other algae. Results were consistent with the hypothesis that zebra mussels promoted blooms of toxic M. aeruginosa in Saginaw Bay, western Lake Erie, and other lakes through selective rejection in pseudofeces. Mussels exhibited high feeding rates similar to those seen for a highly desirable food alga (Cryptomonas) with both large ( &gt;53 µm) and small (&lt;53 µm) colonies of a nontoxic and a toxic laboratory strain of M. aeruginosa known to cause blockage of feeding in zooplankton. In experiments with naturally occurring toxic M. aeruginosa from Saginaw Bay and Lake Erie and a toxic isolate from Lake Erie, mussels exhibited lowered or normal filtering rates with rejection of M. aeruginosa in pseudofeces. Selective rejection depended on "unpalatable" toxic strains of M. aeruginosa occurring as large colonies that could be rejected efficiently while small desirable algae were ingested.

The region studied includes the Laurentian Great Lakes and a diversity of smaller glacial lakes, streams and wetlands south of permanent permafrost and towards the southern extent of Wisconsin glaciation. We emphasize lakes and quantitative implications. The region is warmer and wetter than it has been over most of the last 12000 years. Since 1911 observed air temperatures have increased by about 0·11°C per decade in spring and 0·06°C in winter; annual precipitation has increased by about 2·1% per decade. Ice thaw phenologies since the 1850s indicate a late winter warming of about 2·5°C. In future scenarios for a doubled CO2 climate, air temperature increases in summer and winter and precipitation decreases (summer) in western Ontario but increases (winter) in western Ontario, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Such changes in climate have altered and would further alter hydrological and other physical features of lakes. Warmer climates, i.e. 2 × CO2 climates, would lower net basin water supplies, stream flows and water levels owing to increased evaporation in excess of precipitation. Water levels have been responsive to drought and future scenarios for the Great Lakes simulate levels 0·2 to 2·5 m lower. Human adaptation to such changes is expensive. Warmer climates would decrease the spatial extent of ice cover on the Great Lakes; small lakes, especially to the south, would no longer freeze over every year. Temperature simulations for stratified lakes are 1–7°C warmer for surface waters, and 6°C cooler to 8°C warmer for deep waters. Thermocline depth would change (4 m shallower to 3·5 m deeper) with warmer climates alone; deepening owing to increases in light penetration would occur with reduced input of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from dryer catchments. Dissolved oxygen would decrease below the thermocline. These physical changes would in turn affect the phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and fishes. Annual phytoplankton production may increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected. Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500–600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond differently, as do lakes of different depth or productivity. Differences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause different responses. Climate change effects interact strongly with effects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation. Assessments of these potential effects are in an early stage and contain many uncertainties in the models and properties of aquatic ecological systems and of the climate system. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

After a 20-year absence, severe cyanobacterial blooms have returned to Lake Erie in the last decade, in spite of negligible change in the annual load of total phosphorus (TP). Medium-spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imagery was used to quantify intensity of the cyanobacterial bloom for each year from 2002 to 2011. The blooms peaked in August or later, yet correlate to discharge (Q) and TP loads only for March through June. The influence of the spring TP load appears to have started in the late 1990 s, after Dreissenid mussels colonized the lake, as hindcasts prior to 1998 are inconsistent with the observed blooms. The total spring Q or TP load appears sufficient to predict bloom magnitude, permitting a seasonal forecast prior to the start of the bloom.

Recent record lows of Arctic summer sea ice extent are found to be triggered by the Arctic atmospheric Dipole Anomaly (DA) pattern. This local, second–leading mode of sea–level pressure (SLP) anomaly in the Arctic produced a strong meridional wind anomaly that drove more sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean from the western to the eastern Arctic into the northern Atlantic during the summers of 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005, and 2007. In the 2007 summer, the DA also enhanced anomalous oceanic heat flux into the Arctic Ocean via Bering Strait, which accelerated bottom and lateral melting of sea ice and amplified the ice–albedo feedback. A coupled ice–ocean model was used to confirm the historical record lows of summer sea ice extent.

With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments.

Abstract Toxicokinetic models are not constrained by assumptions of equilibrium as are thermodynamic (equilibrium-partitioning) models and are more accurate predictors of toxicant accumulation for non-steady-state exposures and multiple uptake routes. Toxicokinetic models – compartment-based models, physiological-based models, and energetics-based models – are reviewed and the different mathematical formalisms compared. Additionally, the residue-based toxicity approach is reviewed. Coupling toxicokinetic models with tissue concentrations at which toxicity occurs offers a direct link between exposure and hazard. Basing hazard on tissue rather than environmental concentrations avoids the errors associated with accommodating multiple sources, pulsed exposures, and non-steady-state accumulation.

Accelerated eutrophication stimulated by pollution inputs is causing silica depletion in the surface waters of Lake Michigan during summer stagnation. Limitation of the reproduction of the presently dominant phytoplankton organisms, which require silica, may lead to drastic and, on the whole, undesirable changes in the ecosystem.

Daphnia pulex (Crustacea, Cladocera) was fed the blue‐green algae (Cyanophyceae) Anacystis nidulans, Synechococcus elongata, S. cedrorum, Merismopedia sp., Anabaena flosaquae, Synechocystis sp., and Gloeocapsa alpicola. The green algae (Chlorophyceae) Ankistrodesmus falcatus and Chlorella vulgaris were used for comparison. Direct observations were made of D. pulex feeding in depression slides filled with the test food. Food labeled with 14 C was used to determine ingestion and assimilation. Life tables were constructed for cohorts fed blue‐greens, greens, and no food, and survivorship ( l x ), net reproductive rate ( R o ), median age of death, and intrinsic rate of natural increase ( r ) were calculated. In all cases, ingestion, assimilation, survivorship, and reproduction of D. pulex fed blue‐green algae were lower than of those fed green algae, although there were differences among the blue‐greens in their effects on these parameters. Anacystis nidulans, Merismopedia sp., and Synechocystis sp. showed some toxicity or inhibition towards D. pulex. Although some blue‐green algae can be ingested and assimilated by D. pulex, few if any of those tested provide sufficient nutrition to support a population that does not have other food available.

Several hypotheses are advanced for resource relationships among planktonic diatoms in African freshwater lakes that are consistent with the light and nutrient conditions of the lakes and the extant and fossil distributions of the diatom species in them. The hypotheses are all testable and are potentially powerful tools for interpreting past climatic conditions. A ranking is proposed along a Si: P gradient: at the high end are the planktonic Synedra spp. with the highest Si requirements and lowest P requirements (high Si : P), the planktonic Nitzschia spp. are intermediate, and the Stephanodiscus spp. are at the low end with the lowest Si requirements and highest P requirements (low Si : P). Melosira species may be ranked along a light: P gradient. We suggest that Melosira distans and Melosira ambigua grow under high light and have low P requirements, Melosira agassizii and Melosira granulata are intermediate, and Melosira nyassensis has the lowest light and highest P requirements. There also appears to be a relationship between pore size and the light regime for growth among the Melosira species; thus, M. distans and M. ambigua have the smallest pores and highest light requirements, M. nyassensis has the largest pores and lowest light requirements. Melosira granulata is intermediate and seems to be very variable in pore size, depending on the light environment. One diatom, Nitzschia fonticola, lives in and on colonies of Microcystis and is considered to be an obligate nitrogen heterotroph.

Canonical correlation analysis provides a means of reconstructing quantitative time series of past climatic variables during the last 15,000 years from fossil pollen spectra collected at three sites in the northern Midwest. This multivariate statistical technique was applied to a spatial array of modern pollen and climatic data in order to derive a set of mathematical transfer functions. These transform the fossil pollen spectra directly into quantitative estimates of past climatic values. The basic sequence of climatic events that is reconstructed is in general agreement with previous studies of postglacial climates in the Midwest, but quantitative estimates for certain of the variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation, are given for the first time. Fossil pollen from three cores collected from lakes in Wisconsin and Minnesota allow a preliminary reconstruction of past east-west and north-south gradients of the climatic variables. Because changes in the circulation patterns in midlatitudes are the principal mechanism causing fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, past records of the atmospheric circulation are reconstructed along with records of temperature and rainfall. The time series derived show that the most pronounced climatic change indicated in Wisconsin and Minnesota occurred at the end of the Pleistocene (the beginning of the Holocene). This change is particularly evident in the climatic variables related to temperature, which rose ca. 3.3°C. A decrease in snowfall also occurred. During the Holocene, the most marked change appears in the results from Kirchner Marsh, where the amount of dry western air began to increase and the precipitation to decrease about 9500 B.P. A reversal of these changes occurred about 5000 B.P. In contrast, relatively little change occurred among the reconstructed values from Wisconsin; a marked east-west precipitation gradient, therefore, developed in this region of the Midwest from 9500 to 5000 B.P.

Abstract In this study, temporal and spatial variability of ice cover in the Great Lakes are investigated using historical satellite measurements from 1973 to 2010. The seasonal cycle of ice cover was constructed for all the lakes, including Lake St. Clair. A unique feature found in the seasonal cycle is that the standard deviations (i.e., variability) of ice cover are larger than the climatological means for each lake. This indicates that Great Lakes ice cover experiences large variability in response to predominant natural climate forcing and has poor predictability. Spectral analysis shows that lake ice has both quasi-decadal and interannual periodicities of ~8 and ~4 yr. There was a significant downward trend in ice coverage from 1973 to the present for all of the lakes, with Lake Ontario having the largest, and Lakes Erie and St. Clair having the smallest. The translated total loss in lake ice over the entire 38-yr record varies from 37% in Lake St. Clair (least) to 88% in Lake Ontario (most). The total loss for overall Great Lakes ice coverage is 71%, while Lake Superior places second with a 79% loss. An empirical orthogonal function analysis indicates that a major response of ice cover to atmospheric forcing is in phase in all six lakes, accounting for 80.8% of the total variance. The second mode shows an out-of-phase spatial variability between the upper and lower lakes, accounting for 10.7% of the total variance. The regression of the first EOF-mode time series to sea level pressure, surface air temperature, and surface wind shows that lake ice mainly responds to the combined Arctic Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation patterns.

Plastic litter is an environmental problem of great concern. Despite the magnitude of the plastic pollution in our water bodies, only limited scientific understanding is available about the risk to the environment, particularly for microplastics. The apparent magnitude of the problem calls for quickly developing sound scientific guidance on the ecological risks of microplastics. The authors suggest that future research into microplastics risks should be guided by lessons learned from the more advanced and better understood areas of (eco) toxicology of engineered nanoparticles and mixture toxicity. Relevant examples of advances in these two fields are provided to help accelerate the scientific learning curve within the relatively unexplored area of microplastics risk assessment. Finally, the authors advocate an expansion of the "vector effect" hypothesis with regard to microplastics risk to help focus research of microplastics environmental risk at different levels of biological and environmental organization.