Royal Preston Hospital

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a worldwide public health problem associated with a high prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and impaired quality of life. Previous research for preventing loss of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) has focused on reducing blood pressure (BP) and proteinuria. Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and angiotensin II receptor antagonists (ARB) are commonly used in patients with early CKD, but their value in advanced CKD (estimated GFR (eGFR) ≤30 ml/min/1.73 m2) is unknown. There remains a debate about the omission of ACEi/ARB in patients with advanced CKD and their use in association with CVD or heart failure. Does the potential gain in eGFR with ACEi/ARB cessation outweigh the potential adverse cardiovascular outcomes? This paper reviews the current literature that addresses this issue. Several controversies are discussed. Although lowering BP reduces cardiovascular events, evidence suggests that ACEi/ARBs are not superior to other antihypertensive agents. There are no studies assessing the benefits of ACEi/ARB therapy in cardiovascular risk reduction in advanced non-dialysis CKD. The STOP ACEi trial will strengthen the evidence base and shed light on the potential merits and dangers of ACEi/ARB use in advanced CKD on renal function and cardiovascular outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS: Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS: 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION: Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

BACKGROUND: Abiraterone acetate plus prednisolone improves survival in men with relapsed prostate cancer. We assessed the effect of this combination in men starting long-term androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT), using a multigroup, multistage trial design. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients in a 1:1 ratio to receive ADT alone or ADT plus abiraterone acetate (1000 mg daily) and prednisolone (5 mg daily) (combination therapy). Local radiotherapy was mandated for patients with node-negative, nonmetastatic disease and encouraged for those with positive nodes. For patients with nonmetastatic disease with no radiotherapy planned and for patients with metastatic disease, treatment continued until radiologic, clinical, or prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression; otherwise, treatment was to continue for 2 years or until any type of progression, whichever came first. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. The intermediate primary outcome was failure-free survival (treatment failure was defined as radiologic, clinical, or PSA progression or death from prostate cancer). RESULTS: A total of 1917 patients underwent randomization from November 2011 through January 2014. The median age was 67 years, and the median PSA level was 53 ng per milliliter. A total of 52% of the patients had metastatic disease, 20% had node-positive or node-indeterminate nonmetastatic disease, and 28% had node-negative, nonmetastatic disease; 95% had newly diagnosed disease. The median follow-up was 40 months. There were 184 deaths in the combination group as compared with 262 in the ADT-alone group (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 0.76; P<0.001); the hazard ratio was 0.75 in patients with nonmetastatic disease and 0.61 in those with metastatic disease. There were 248 treatment-failure events in the combination group as compared with 535 in the ADT-alone group (hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.34; P<0.001); the hazard ratio was 0.21 in patients with nonmetastatic disease and 0.31 in those with metastatic disease. Grade 3 to 5 adverse events occurred in 47% of the patients in the combination group (with nine grade 5 events) and in 33% of the patients in the ADT-alone group (with three grade 5 events). CONCLUSIONS: Among men with locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancer, ADT plus abiraterone and prednisolone was associated with significantly higher rates of overall and failure-free survival than ADT alone. (Funded by Cancer Research U.K. and others; STAMPEDE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00268476 , and Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN78818544 .).

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer might have high radiation-fraction sensitivity that would give a therapeutic advantage to hypofractionated treatment. We present a pre-planned analysis of the efficacy and side-effects of a randomised trial comparing conventional and hypofractionated radiotherapy after 5 years follow-up. METHODS: CHHiP is a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial that recruited men with localised prostate cancer (pT1b-T3aN0M0). Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to conventional (74 Gy delivered in 37 fractions over 7·4 weeks) or one of two hypofractionated schedules (60 Gy in 20 fractions over 4 weeks or 57 Gy in 19 fractions over 3·8 weeks) all delivered with intensity-modulated techniques. Most patients were given radiotherapy with 3-6 months of neoadjuvant and concurrent androgen suppression. Randomisation was by computer-generated random permuted blocks, stratified by National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group and radiotherapy treatment centre, and treatment allocation was not masked. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical or clinical failure; the critical hazard ratio (HR) for non-inferiority was 1·208. Analysis was by intention to treat. Long-term follow-up continues. The CHHiP trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN97182923. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2002, and June 17, 2011, 3216 men were enrolled from 71 centres and randomly assigned (74 Gy group, 1065 patients; 60 Gy group, 1074 patients; 57 Gy group, 1077 patients). Median follow-up was 62·4 months (IQR 53·9-77·0). The proportion of patients who were biochemical or clinical failure free at 5 years was 88·3% (95% CI 86·0-90·2) in the 74 Gy group, 90·6% (88·5-92·3) in the 60 Gy group, and 85·9% (83·4-88·0) in the 57 Gy group. 60 Gy was non-inferior to 74 Gy (HR 0·84 [90% CI 0·68-1·03], pNI=0·0018) but non-inferiority could not be claimed for 57 Gy compared with 74 Gy (HR 1·20 [0·99-1·46], pNI=0·48). Long-term side-effects were similar in the hypofractionated groups compared with the conventional group. There were no significant differences in either the proportion or cumulative incidence of side-effects 5 years after treatment using three clinician-reported as well as patient-reported outcome measures. The estimated cumulative 5 year incidence of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) grade 2 or worse bowel and bladder adverse events was 13·7% (111 events) and 9·1% (66 events) in the 74 Gy group, 11·9% (105 events) and 11·7% (88 events) in the 60 Gy group, 11·3% (95 events) and 6·6% (57 events) in the 57 Gy group, respectively. No treatment-related deaths were reported. INTERPRETATION: Hypofractionated radiotherapy using 60 Gy in 20 fractions is non-inferior to conventional fractionation using 74 Gy in 37 fractions and is recommended as a new standard of care for external-beam radiotherapy of localised prostate cancer. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, and the National Institute for Health Research Cancer Research Network.

We have performed a systematic review to summarize current knowledge concerning factors related to survival in ALS and to evaluate the implications of these data for clinical trials design. The median survival time from onset to death ranges from 20 to 48 months, but 10-20% of ALS patients have a survival longer than 10 years. Older age and bulbar onset are consistently reported to have a worse outcome. There are conflicting data on gender, diagnostic delay and El Escorial criteria. The rate of symptom progression was revealed to be an independent prognostic factor. Psychosocial factors, FTD, nutritional status, and respiratory function are also related to ALS outcome. The effect of enteral nutrition on survival is still unclear, while NIPPV has been found to improve survival. There are no well established biological markers of progression, although some are likely to emerge in the near future. These findings have relevant implications for the design of future trials. Randomization, besides the type of onset, should take into account age, respiratory status at entry, and a measure of disease progression pre-entry. Alternative trial designs can include the use of natural history controls, the so-called minimization method for treatment allocation, and the futility approach.

Abstract The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-19 1,2 , host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases 3–7 . They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.

BACKGROUND: Riluzole 100 mg probably prolongs survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis by about two months and the safety of the drug is not a major concern. The evidence from randomized controlled trials indicates that patients taking riluzole probably survive longer than patients taking placebo. The beneficial effects are very modest and the drug is expensive. Adverse effects from riluzole are relatively minor and for the most part reversible after stopping the drug. Riluzole has been approved for treatment of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in many countries but not all. Questions persist about its clinical utility because of high cost, modest efficacy and concern over adverse effects. OBJECTIVES: To examine the efficacy of riluzole in prolonging survival, and in delaying the use of surrogates (tracheostomy and mechanical ventilation) to sustain survival. SEARCH STRATEGY: Search of the Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group Register for randomized trials and enquiry from authors of trials, Aventis (manufacturer of riluzole) and other experts in the field. The most recent search was November 2002. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized trials of adults with diagnosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), treated with riluzole or placebo. Types of outcome measures: Primary: pooled hazard ratio of tracheostomy-free survival over all time points with riluzole 100 mg. Secondary: per cent mortality as a function of time with riluzole 100 mg and other doses of riluzole; neurologic function, quality of life, muscle strength and adverse events. DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSIS: We identified four eligible randomized trials. Each reviewer graded them for methodological quality. Data extraction was performed by a single reviewer and checked by two others. We obtained some missing data from investigators and regulatory agencies. We performed meta-analyses with Review Manager 4.1 software using a fixed effects model. A test of drug efficacy was based on the Parmar pooled hazard ratio. RESULTS: The three trials examining tracheostomy-free survival included a total of 876 riluzole treated patients and 406 placebo treated patients. The data for tracheostomy-free survival was not available from the fourth trial. The methodological quality was acceptable and the three trials were easily comparable, although one trial included older patients in more advanced stages of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Riluzole 100 mg per day provided a benefit for the homogeneous group of patients in the first two trials (p=0.039, hazard ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.99) and there was no evidence of heterogeneity (p=0.33). When the third trial (which included older and more seriously affected patients) is added, there is evidence of heterogeneity (p<0.0001) and the random effects model, which takes this into account results in the overall treatment effect estimate falling just short of significance (p=0.056, hazard ratio 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 1.01). This represents a 9% gain in the probability of surviving one year (57% in the placebo and 66% in the riluzole group). In secondary analyses of survival at separate time points, there was a significant survival advantage with riluzole 100 mg at six, nine, 12 and 15 months, but not at three or 18 months. There was a small beneficial effect on both bulbar and limb function, but not on muscle strength. There were no data on quality of life, but patients treated with riluzole remained in a more moderately affected health state significantly longer than placebo-treated patients (weighted mean difference 35.5 days, 95% confidence interval 5.9 to 65.0). A threefold increase in serum alanine transferase was more frequent in riluzole treated patients than controls (weighted mean difference 2.69, 95% confidence interval 1.65 to 4.38). CONCLUSIONS: Riluzole 100 mg daily is reasonably safe and probably prolongs survival by about two months in patients with ALS. More studies are needed, especially to clarify its effect in older patients (over 75 years), and those with more advanced disease.

The successful management of femoral neck fractures is obviously based upon many factors. The forces acting upon the proximal end of the femur are believed to be mainly compressive in nature, and the low-angle nail by stabilising the fully reduced fracture in the line of these forces is held to allow weight bearing to take place. Low-angle nailing is believed to offer many advantages over conventional methods of treatment but only in the presence of stability. Stable reduction is the essential preliminary to any form of treatment, and low-angle fixation with early weight bearing in the absence of stability is regarded as futile. It is suggested that those subcapital separations which follow trivial injury may originate as stress fractures accompanying the process of bone remodelling in the aged, and that many of these fractures may remain unrecognised and heal spontaneously. With rare exceptions, subcapital fractures are regarded as being of the same essential pattern, and their varying radiological appearance is considered to be due to the different degrees of displacement to which they have been subjected. A new classification based on this premise has been suggested. In a series of eighty subcapital fractures the incidence of avascular necrosis was not adversely affected by early weight bearing, but reduction in the extreme valgus position was invariably followed by this disaster. This is probably also true of any malposition in extreme rotation which must stretch and obliterate the vessels in the ligamentum teres. A rough alignment index of reduction was found to provide an almost infallible guide to the prognosis both in regard to union and to avascular change. It may therefore be possible to base prognosis on the quality of reduction before the fixation appliance has been inserted. The unsatisfactory results in those cases apparently destined to non-union or avascular necrosis may then be avoided by alternative means of treatment at an early stage. Whether this will prove to be true must depend upon a much longer experience of low-angle fixation, and, in common with almost every communication on this subject, premature publication must largely offset the value of the present findings.

BACKGROUND: Riluzole is approved for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in most countries. Questions persist about its clinical utility because of high cost and modest efficacy. OBJECTIVES: To examine the efficacy of riluzole in prolonging survival and in delaying the use of surrogates (tracheostomy and mechanical ventilation) to sustain survival, and to assess the effect of riluzole upon functional health. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group Specialized Register (20 April 2011), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2011, Issue 2), MEDLINE (1966 to April 2011), EMBASE (1980 to May 2011) and made enquiries of authors of trials, Aventis (manufacturer of riluzole) and other experts in the field. SELECTION CRITERIA: Types of studies: randomized controlled trials TYPES OF PARTICIPANTS: adults with a diagnosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis Types of interventions: treatment with riluzole or placebo Types of outcome measures: Primary: pooled hazard ratio of tracheostomy-free survival over all time points with riluzole 100 mg. Secondary: per cent mortality with riluzole 50 mg, 100 mg and 200 mg; neurologic function, muscle strength and adverse events. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: One author performed data extraction and two other authors checked them. One author checked the data and entered them into the computer. The other authors verified the data entry. We obtained missing data from the trial authors whenever possible. MAIN RESULTS: The four trials examining tracheostomy-free survival included a total of 974 riluzole-treated patients and 503 placebo-treated patients. No new randomized controlled trials were found when we updated the searches for this update in 2011. The methodological quality was acceptable and three trials were easily comparable, although one trial (169 participants) included older patients in more advanced stages of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and one (195 participants) had multiple primary endpoints. Riluzole 100 mg per day provided a benefit for the homogeneous group of patients in the first two trials (hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% confidence internal (CI) 0.64 to 0.99, P= 0.042) and there was no evidence of heterogeneity (P = 0.33). When the third trial (which included older and more seriously affected patients) was added, there was evidence of heterogeneity (P < 0.0001) and the overall treatment effect was reduced but still significant (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.698 to 0.997, P= 0.046). This represented a 9% gain in the probability of surviving one year (49% in the placebo and 58% in the riluzole group), and increased median survival from 11.8 to 14.8 months. There was a small beneficial effect on both bulbar and limb function, but not on muscle strength. A three-fold increase in serum alanine transferase was more frequent in riluzole-treated patients than controls (mean difference 2.62, 95% CI 1.59 to 4.31). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Riluzole 100 mg daily is reasonably safe and probably prolongs median survival by about two to three months in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: A recent review suggested an association between using unpublished scales in clinical trials and finding significant results. AIMS: To determine whether such an association existed in schizophrenia trials. METHOD: Three hundred trials were randomly selected from the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group's Register. All comparisons between treatment groups and control groups using rating scales were identified. The publication status of each scale was determined and claims of a significant treatment effect were recorded. RESULTS: Trials were more likely to report that a treatment was superior to control when an unpublished scale was used to make the comparison (relative risk 1.37 (95% CI 1.12-1.68)). This effect increased when a 'gold-standard' definition of treatment superiority was applied (RR 1.94 (95% CI 1.35-2.79)). In non-pharmacological trials, one-third of 'gold-standard' claims of treatment superiority would not have been made if published scales had been used. CONCLUSIONS: Unpublished scales are a source of bias in schizophrenia trials.

The gram-negative bacterium Campylobacter jejuni has extensive reservoirs in livestock and the environment and is a frequent cause of gastroenteritis in humans. To date, the lack of (i) methods suitable for population genetic analysis and (ii) a universally accepted nomenclature has hindered studies of the epidemiology and population biology of this organism. Here, a multilocus sequence typing (MLST) system for this organism is described, which exploits the genetic variation present in seven housekeeping loci to determine the genetic relationships among isolates. The MLST system was established using 194 C. jejuni isolates of diverse origins, from humans, animals, and the environment. The allelic profiles, or sequence types (STs), of these isolates were deposited on the Internet (http://mlst.zoo.ox.ac.uk), forming a virtual isolate collection which could be continually expanded. These data indicated that C. jejuni is genetically diverse, with a weakly clonal population structure, and that intra- and interspecies horizontal genetic exchange was common. Of the 155 STs observed, 51 (26% of the isolate collection) were unique, with the remainder of the collection being categorized into 11 lineages or clonal complexes of related STs with between 2 and 56 members. In some cases membership in a given lineage or ST correlated with the possession of a particular Penner HS serotype. Application of this approach to further isolate collections will enable an integrated global picture of C. jejuni epidemiology to be established and will permit more detailed studies of the population genetics of this organism.

BACKGROUND: Geographical differences in the incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) have been reported in the literature but comparisons across previous studies are limited by different methods in case ascertainment and by the relatively small size of the studied populations. To address these issues, the authors undertook a pooled analysis of European population based ALS registries. METHODS: All new incident ALS cases in subjects aged 18 years old and older were identified prospectively in six population based registries in three European countries (Ireland, UK and Italy) in the 2 year period 1998-1999, with a reference population of almost 24 million. RESULTS: Based on 1028 identified incident cases, the crude annual incidence rate of ALS in the general European population was 2.16 per 100 000 person years; 95% CI 2.0 to 2.3), with similar incidence rates across all registries. The incidence was higher among men (3.0 per 100 000 person years; 95% CI 2.8 to 3.3) than among women (2.4 per 100 000 person years; 95% CI 2.2 to 2.6). Spinal onset ALS was more common among men compared with women, particularly in the 70-80 year age group. Disease occurrence decreased rapidly after 80 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: ALS incidence is homogeneous across Europe. Sex differences in incidence may be explained by the higher incidence of spinal onset ALS among men, and the age related disease pattern suggests that ALS occurs within a susceptible group within the population rather than being a disease of ageing.

Aicardi-Goutières syndrome is an inflammatory disease occurring due to mutations in any of TREX1, RNASEH2A, RNASEH2B, RNASEH2C, SAMHD1, ADAR or IFIH1. We report on 374 patients from 299 families with mutations in these seven genes. Most patients conformed to one of two fairly stereotyped clinical profiles; either exhibiting an in utero disease-onset (74 patients; 22.8% of all patients where data were available), or a post-natal presentation, usually within the first year of life (223 patients; 68.6%), characterized by a sub-acute encephalopathy and a loss of previously acquired skills. Other clinically distinct phenotypes were also observed; particularly, bilateral striatal necrosis (13 patients; 3.6%) and non-syndromic spastic paraparesis (12 patients; 3.4%). We recorded 69 deaths (19.3% of patients with follow-up data). Of 285 patients for whom data were available, 210 (73.7%) were profoundly disabled, with no useful motor, speech and intellectual function. Chilblains, glaucoma, hypothyroidism, cardiomyopathy, intracerebral vasculitis, peripheral neuropathy, bowel inflammation and systemic lupus erythematosus were seen frequently enough to be confirmed as real associations with the Aicardi-Goutieres syndrome phenotype. We observed a robust relationship between mutations in all seven genes with increased type I interferon activity in cerebrospinal fluid and serum, and the increased expression of interferon-stimulated gene transcripts in peripheral blood. We recorded a positive correlation between the level of cerebrospinal fluid interferon activity assayed within one year of disease presentation and the degree of subsequent disability. Interferon-stimulated gene transcripts remained high in most patients, indicating an ongoing disease process. On the basis of substantial morbidity and mortality, our data highlight the urgent need to define coherent treatment strategies for the phenotypes associated with mutations in the Aicardi-Goutières syndrome-related genes. Our findings also make it clear that a window of therapeutic opportunity exists relevant to the majority of affected patients and indicate that the assessment of type I interferon activity might serve as a useful biomarker in future clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Persistent infection with high-risk human papillomaviruses (hrHPV) types is causally linked with the development of cervical precancer and cancer. HPV types 16 and 18 cause approximately 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the harms and protection of prophylactic human papillomaviruses (HPV) vaccines against cervical precancer and HPV16/18 infection in adolescent girls and women. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Embase (June 2017) for reports on effects from trials. We searched trial registries and company results' registers to identify unpublished data for mortality and serious adverse events. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials comparing efficacy and safety in females offered HPV vaccines with placebo (vaccine adjuvants or another control vaccine). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used Cochrane methodology and GRADE to rate the certainty of evidence for protection against cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and above [CIN2+], CIN grade 3 and above [CIN3+], and adenocarcinoma-in-situ [AIS]), and for harms. We distinguished between the effects of vaccines by participants' baseline HPV DNA status. The outcomes were precancer associated with vaccine HPV types and precancer irrespective of HPV type. Results are presented as risks in control and vaccination groups and risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals in brackets. MAIN RESULTS: We included 26 trials (73,428 participants). Ten trials, with follow-up of 1.3 to 8 years, addressed protection against CIN/AIS. Vaccine safety was evaluated over a period of 6 months to 7 years in 23 studies. Studies were not large enough or of sufficient duration to evaluate cervical cancer outcomes. All but one of the trials was funded by the vaccine manufacturers. We judged most included trials to be at low risk of bias. Studies involved monovalent (N = 1), bivalent (N = 18), and quadrivalent vaccines (N = 7). Most women were under 26 years of age. Three trials recruited women aged 25 and over. We summarize the effects of vaccines in participants who had at least one immunisation.Efficacy endpoints by initial HPV DNA statushrHPV negativeHPV vaccines reduce CIN2+, CIN3+, AIS associated with HPV16/18 compared with placebo in adolescent girls and women aged 15 to 26. There is high-certainty evidence that vaccines lower CIN2+ from 164 to 2/10,000 (RR 0.01 (0 to 0.05)) and CIN3+ from 70 to 0/10,000 (RR 0.01 (0.00 to 0.10). There is moderate-certainty evidence that vaccines reduce the risk of AIS from 9 to 0/10,000 (RR 0.10 (0.01 to 0.82).HPV vaccines reduce the risk of any CIN2+ from 287 to 106/10,000 (RR 0.37 (0.25 to 0.55), high certainty) and probably reduce any AIS lesions from 10 to 0/10,000 (RR 0.1 (0.01 to 0.76), moderate certainty). The size of reduction in CIN3+ with vaccines differed between bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines (bivalent: RR 0.08 (0.03 to 0.23), high certainty; quadrivalent: RR 0.54 (0.36 to 0.82), moderate certainty). Data in older women were not available for this comparison.HPV16/18 negativeIn those aged 15 to 26 years, vaccines reduce CIN2+ associated with HPV16/18 from 113 to 6 /10,000 (RR 0.05 (0.03 to 0.10). In women 24 years or older the absolute and relative reduction in the risk of these lesions is smaller (from 45 to 14/10,000, (RR 0.30 (0.11 to 0.81), moderate certainty). HPV vaccines reduce the risk of CIN3+ and AIS associated with HPV16/18 in younger women (RR 0.05 (0.02 to 0.14), high certainty and RR 0.09 (0.01 to 0.72), moderate certainty, respectively). No trials in older women have measured these outcomes.Vaccines reduce any CIN2+ from 231 to 95/10,000, (RR 0.41 (0.32 to 0.52)) in younger women. No data are reported for more severe lesions.Regardless of HPV DNA statusIn younger women HPV vaccines reduce the risk of CIN2+ associated with HPV16/18 from 341 to 157/10,000 (RR 0.46 (0.37 to 0.57), high certainty). Similar reductions in risk were observed for CIN3+ associated with HPV16/18 (high certainty). The number of women with AIS associated with HPV16/18 is reduced from 14 to 5/10,000 with HPV vaccines (high certainty).HPV vaccines reduce any CIN2+ from 559 to 391/10,000 (RR 0.70 (0.58 to 0.85, high certainty) and any AIS from 17 to 5/10,000 (RR 0.32 (0.15 to 0.67), high certainty). The reduction in any CIN3+ differed by vaccine type (bivalent vaccine: RR 0.55 (0.43 to 0.71) and quadrivalent vaccine: RR 0.81 (0.69 to 0.96)).In women vaccinated at 24 to 45 years of age, there is moderate-certainty evidence that the risks of CIN2+ associated with HPV16/18 and any CIN2+ are similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated women (RR 0.74 (0.52 to 1.05) and RR 1.04 (0.83 to 1.30) respectively). No data are reported in this age group for CIN3+ or AIS.Adverse effectsThe risk of serious adverse events is similar between control and HPV vaccines in women of all ages (669 versus 656/10,000, RR 0.98 (0.92 to 1.05), high certainty). Mortality was 11/10,000 in control groups compared with 14/10,000 (9 to 22) with HPV vaccine (RR 1.29 [0.85 to 1.98]; low certainty). The number of deaths was low overall but there is a higher number of deaths in older women. No pattern in the cause or timing of death has been established.Pregnancy outcomesAmong those who became pregnant during the studies, we did not find an increased risk of miscarriage (1618 versus 1424/10,000, RR 0.88 (0.68 to 1.14), high certainty) or termination (931 versus 838/10,000 RR 0.90 (0.80 to 1.02), high certainty). The effects on congenital abnormalities and stillbirths are uncertain (RR 1.22 (0.88 to 1.69), moderate certainty and (RR 1.12 (0.68 to 1.83), moderate certainty, respectively). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is high-certainty evidence that HPV vaccines protect against cervical precancer in adolescent girls and young women aged 15 to 26. The effect is higher for lesions associated with HPV16/18 than for lesions irrespective of HPV type. The effect is greater in those who are negative for hrHPV or HPV16/18 DNA at enrolment than those unselected for HPV DNA status. There is moderate-certainty evidence that HPV vaccines reduce CIN2+ in older women who are HPV16/18 negative, but not when they are unselected by HPV DNA status.We did not find an increased risk of serious adverse effects. Although the number of deaths is low overall, there were more deaths among women older than 25 years who received the vaccine. The deaths reported in the studies have been judged not to be related to the vaccine. Increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes after HPV vaccination cannot be excluded, although the risk of miscarriage and termination are similar between trial arms. Long-term of follow-up is needed to monitor the impact on cervical cancer, occurrence of rare harms and pregnancy outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of teaching patients with bipolar disorder (manic-depressive psychosis) to identify early symptoms of relapse and seek prompt treatment from health services. DESIGN: Single blind randomised controlled trial with matching on four baseline variables using a minimisation algorithm. SETTING: Mental health services in four NHS trusts (one teaching, three non-teaching). SUBJECTS: 69 patients with bipolar disorder who had had a relapse in the previous 12 months. INTERVENTIONS: Seven to 12 individual treatment sessions from a research psychologist plus routine care or routine care alone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time to first manic or depressive relapse, number of manic or depressive relapses, and social functioning examined by standardised interviews every six months for 18 months. RESULTS: 25th centile time to first manic relapse in experimental group was 65 weeks compared with 17 weeks in the control group. Event curves of time to first manic relapse significantly differed between experimental and control groups (log rank 7.04, df=1, P=0.008), with significant reductions in the number of manic relapses over 18 months (median difference 30% (95% confidence interval 8% to 52%), P=0.013). The experimental treatment had no effect on time to first relapse or number of relapses with depression, but it significantly improved overall social functioning (mean difference 2.0 (0.7 to 3.2), P=0.003) and employment (mean difference 0.7 (0.1 to 1.3), P=0.030) by 18 months. CONCLUSION: Teaching patients to recognise early symptoms of manic relapse and seek early treatment is associated with important clinical improvements in time to first manic relapse, social functioning, and employment.

BACKGROUND: Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) was developed in the early 1970s as a response to the closing down of psychiatric hospitals. ACT is a team-based approach aiming at keeping ill people in contact with services, reducing hospital admissions and improving outcome, especially social functioning and quality of life. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) as an alternative to i. standard community care, ii. traditional hospital-based rehabilitation, and iii. case management. For each of the three comparisons the main outcome indices were i. remaining in contact with the psychiatric services, ii. extent of psychiatric hospital admissions, iii. clinical and social outcome and iv. costs. SEARCH STRATEGY: Electronic searches of CINAHL (1982-1997), the Cochrane Schizophrenia Group's Register of trials (1997), EMBASE (1980-1997), MEDLINE (1966-1997), PsycLIT (1974-1997) and SCISEARCH (1997) were undertaken. References of all identified studies were searched for further trial citations. SELECTION CRITERIA: The inclusion criteria were that studies should i. be randomised controlled trials, ii. have compared ACT to standard community care, hospital-based rehabilitation, or case management and iii. have been carried out on people with severe mental disorder the majority of whom were aged from 18 to 65. Studies of ACT were defined as those in which the investigators described the intervention as "Assertive Community Treatment" or one of its synonyms. Studies of ACT as an alternative to hospital admission, hospital diversion programmes, for those in crisis, were excluded. The reliability of the inclusion criteria were evaluated. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Three types of outcome data were available: i. categorical data, ii. numerical data based on counts of real life events (count data) and iii. numerical data collected by standardised instruments (scale data). Categorical data were extracted twice and then cross-checked. Peto Odds Ratios and the number needed to treat (NNT) were calculated. Numerical count data were extracted twice and cross-checked. Count data could not be combined across studies for technical reasons (the data were skewed) but all relevant observations based on count data were reported in the review. Numerical scale data were subject to a quality assessment. The validity of the quality assessment was itself assessed. Numerical scale data of suitable quality were combined using the standardised mean difference statistic where possible, otherwise the data were reported in the text or 'Other data tables' of the review. MAIN RESULTS: ACT versus standard community care Those receiving ACT were more likely to remain in contact with services than people receiving standard community care (OR 0.51, 99%CI 0.37-0.70). People allocated to ACT were less likely to be admitted to hospital than those receiving standard community care (OR 0.59, 99%CI 0.41-0.85) and spent less time in hospital. In terms of clinical and social outcome, significant and robust differences between ACT and standard community care were found on i. accommodation status, ii. employment and iii. patient satisfaction. There were no differences between ACT and control treatments on mental state or social functioning. ACT invariably reduced the cost of hospital care, but did not have a clear cut advantage over standard care when other costs were taken into account. ACT versus hospital-based rehabilitation services Those receiving ACT were no more likely to remain in contact with services than those receiving hospital-based rehabilitation, but confidence intervals for the odds ratio were wide. People getting ACT were significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital than those receiving hospital-based rehabilitation (OR 0.2, 99%CI 0.09-0.46) and spent less time in hospital. Those allocated to ACT were significantly more likely to be living independently (OR (for not living independently) 0.19, 99%CI 0.06-0. (A

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening has traditionally been based on cervical cytology. Given the aetiological relationship between human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical carcinogenesis, HPV testing has been proposed as an alternative screening test. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of HPV testing for detecting histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasias (CIN) of grade 2 or worse (CIN 2+), including adenocarcinoma in situ, in women participating in primary cervical cancer screening; and how it compares to the accuracy of cytological testing (liquid-based and conventional) at various thresholds. SEARCH METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search of articles in MEDLINE and Embase (1992 to November 2015) containing quantitative data and handsearched the reference lists of retrieved articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included comparative test accuracy studies if all women received both HPV testing and cervical cytology followed by verification of the disease status with the reference standard, if positive for at least one screening test. The studies had to include women participating in a cervical cancer screening programme who were not being followed up for previous cytological abnormalities. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We completed a 2 x 2 table with the number of true positives (TP), false positives (FP), true negatives (TN), and false negatives for each screening test (HPV test and cytology) used in each study. We calculated the absolute and relative sensitivities and the specificities of the tests for the detection of CIN 2+ and CIN 3+ at various thresholds and computed sensitivity (TP/(TP + TN) and specificity (TN/ (TN + FP) for each test separately. Relative sensitivity and specificity of one test compared to another test were defined as sensitivity of test-1 over sensitivity of test-2 and specificity of test-1 over specificity of test-2, respectively. To assess bias in the studies, we used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic test Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) tool. We used a bivariate random-effects model for computing pooled accuracy estimates. This model takes into account the within- and between-study variability and the intrinsic correlation between sensitivity and specificity. MAIN RESULTS: We included a total of 40 studies in the review, with more than 140,000 women aged between 20 and 70 years old. Many studies were at low risk of bias. There were a sufficient number of included studies with adequate methodology to perform the following test comparisons: hybrid capture 2 (HC2) (1 pg/mL threshold) versus conventional cytology (CC) (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS)+ and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL)+ thresholds) or liquid-based cytology (LBC) (ASCUS+ and LSIL+ thresholds), other high-risk HPV tests versus conventional cytology (ASCUS+ and LSIL+ thresholds) or LBC (ASCUS+ and LSIL+ thresholds). For CIN 2+, pooled sensitivity estimates for HC2, CC and LBC (ASCUS+) were 89.9%, 62.5% and 72.9%, respectively, and pooled specificity estimates were 89.9%, 96.6%, and 90.3%, respectively. The results did not differ by age of women (less than or greater than 30 years old), or in studies with verification bias. Accuracy of HC2 was, however, greater in European countries compared to other countries. The results for the sensitivity of the tests were heterogeneous ranging from 52% to 94% for LBC, and 61% to 100% for HC2. Overall, the quality of the evidence for the sensitivity of the tests was moderate, and high for the specificity.The relative sensitivity of HC2 versus CC for CIN 2+ was 1.52 (95% CI: 1.24 to 1.86) and the relative specificity 0.94 (95% CI: 0.92 to 0.96), and versus LBC for CIN 2+ was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10 to 1.26) and the relative specificity 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.97). The relative sensitivity of HC2 versus CC for CIN 3+ was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.12 to 1.91) and the relative specificity 0.95 (95% CI: 0.93 to 0.97). The relative sensitivity of HC2 versus LBC for CIN 3+ was 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.28) and the relative specificity 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.97). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Whilst HPV tests are less likely to miss cases of CIN 2+ and CIN 3+, these tests do lead to more unnecessary referrals. However, a negative HPV test is more reassuring than a negative cytological test, as the cytological test has a greater chance of being falsely negative, which could lead to delays in receiving the appropriate treatment. Evidence from prospective longitudinal studies is needed to establish the relative clinical implications of these tests.

Campylobacter jejuni is the leading cause of bacterial gastro-enteritis in the developed world. It is thought to infect 2-3 million people a year in the US alone, at a cost to the economy in excess of US $4 billion. C. jejuni is a widespread zoonotic pathogen that is carried by animals farmed for meat and poultry. A connection with contaminated food is recognized, but C. jejuni is also commonly found in wild animals and water sources. Phylogenetic studies have suggested that genotypes pathogenic to humans bear greatest resemblance to non-livestock isolates. Moreover, seasonal variation in campylobacteriosis bears the hallmarks of water-borne disease, and certain outbreaks have been attributed to contamination of drinking water. As a result, the relative importance of these reservoirs to human disease is controversial. We use multilocus sequence typing to genotype 1,231 cases of C. jejuni isolated from patients in Lancashire, England. By modeling the DNA sequence evolution and zoonotic transmission of C. jejuni between host species and the environment, we assign human cases probabilistically to source populations. Our novel population genetics approach reveals that the vast majority (97%) of sporadic disease can be attributed to animals farmed for meat and poultry. Chicken and cattle are the principal sources of C. jejuni pathogenic to humans, whereas wild animal and environmental sources are responsible for just 3% of disease. Our results imply that the primary transmission route is through the food chain, and suggest that incidence could be dramatically reduced by enhanced on-farm biosecurity or preventing food-borne transmission.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relatively rare disease with a reported population incidence of between 1.5 and 2.5 per 100,000 per year. Over the past 10 years, the design of ALS epidemiological studies has evolved to focus on a prospective, population based methodology, employing the El Escorial criteria and multiple sources of data to ensure complete case ascertainment. Five such studies, based in Europe and North America, have been published and show remarkably consistent incidence figures among their respective Caucasian populations. Population based studies have been useful in defining clinical characteristics and prognostic indicators in ALS. However, many epidemiological questions remain that cannot be resolved by any of the existing population based datasets. The working hypotheses is that ALS, like other chronic diseases, is a complex genetic condition, and the relative contributions of individual environmental and genetic factors are likely to be relatively small. Larger studies are required to characterise risks and identify subpopulations that might be suitable for further study. This current paper outlines the contribution of the various population based registers, identifies the limitations of the existing datasets and proposes a mechanism to improve the future design and output of descriptive epidemiological studies.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of vestibular schwannoma (VS) in sporadic, neurofibromatosis type 2 (NF2) germ-line and mosaic form in a 10-year period. STUDY DESIGN: Review of all incident cases of VS presenting to the four main neurosurgical centers for a population of 4.1 million from 1990 to 1999 and cross-referencing with the regional cancer registry. SETTING: Population based. PATIENTS: All patients presenting with VS detected on magnetic resonance imaging scan. RESULTS: A total of 419 sporadic and 64 NF2-related VS were identified over the study period. This represented an incidence of 10.4 per million per year for sporadic VS and 11.8 per million per year including NF2-related tumors. The incidence rose to 14 per million per year in the latter 5 years. The NF2 patient diagnoses represent an estimated birth incidence of 1 in 25,000, and 7% of the patients with VS had NF2, which is higher than previous estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of VS is rising almost certainly due to increasing diagnosis in the magnetic resonance imaging era. At current rates, 1 per 1,000 individuals will be diagnosed with VS in their lifetime. More VS than previously thought are due to NF2, which may be because of recognition of mosaic forms of the disease.