U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command

This article presents an algorithm for constructing orthogonal Latin hypercubes, given a fixed sample size, in more dimensions than previous approaches. In addition, we detail a method that dramatically improves the space-filling properties of the resultant Latin hypercubes at the expense of inducing small correlations between the columns in the design matrix. Although the designs are applicable to many situations, they were developed to provide Department of Defense analysts flexibility in fitting models when exploring high-dimensional computer simulations where there is considerable a priori uncertainty about the forms of the response surfaces.

INTRODUCTION: In this investigation we assessed the spectrum of creatine kinase (CK) responses in military recruits undergoing basic training. METHODS: Musculoskeletal examination data, questionnaire findings, and CK levels were obtained from 499 recruits at days 0, 3, 7, and 14 of training. Correlations of CK with ethnicity, age, body mass index, exercise, muscle pain, and climate were obtained. RESULTS: None of the subjects developed clinical exertional rhabdomyolysis (ER). The mean/median serum CK values were 223/157, 734/478, 1226/567, and 667/486 IU/L at days 0, 3, 7, and 14, respectively, with a wide overall range (34-35,056 IU/L). African-American subjects had higher mean CK levels. CONCLUSIONS: CK elevations and muscle pain are common during basic training. Widely accepted laboratory diagnostic values for ER are routinely exceeded in this military recruits, suggesting that CK levels >50 times the upper limit of normal are more specific. The findings support using CK as a marker for ER. Normal laboratory reference ranges for CK should be published by ethnicity.

There continues to be increasing interest from a broad range of disciplines in agent-based and artificial life simulations. This includes the Department of Defense--which uses simulations heavily in its decision making process. Indeed, military conflicts can have many attributes that are consistent with complex adaptive systems--such as many entities interacting with some degree of autonomy, each of which is continually making decisions to satisfy a variety of sometimes conflicting objectives. In this paper, we present three applications of agent-based simulations used to analyze military problems. The first uses the MANA model to explore the ability of the U.S. Army's network-based Future Force to perform with degraded communications. The second studies how unmanned surface vehicles can be used in force protection missions with the Pythagoras model. The last example examines the standard Army squad size with an integrated effort using MANA, Pythagoras, and the high-resolution simulation JANUS.

To facilitate design of vaccine trials, malaria was studied in 6-month- to 6-year-old Kenyans during high (HI) and low intensity transmission seasons. During 84 days after cure, exposure to infected mosquitoes was 9-fold greater in the HI group, yet incidence of P. falciparum infection was increased only 2-fold, with no age effect. The density of recurrent P. falciparum was 14-fold greater in the HI group, and there was a striking association between age and parasitemia > or = 5000/microL. Fever was the only clinical manifestation attributable to parasitemia and only when the parasite density was > or = 5000/microL. Sixty-four percent of children with > or = 20,000 parasites/microL versus 10% with 1-4999/microL were febrile when parasitemic. Recurrent P. falciparum infection as a vaccine trial end point can be studied year-round among children < or = 6 years [corrected] in western Kenya. However, high-grade parasitemia (> or = 5000 or 20,000/microL) with or without elevated temperature will be optimally studied in the high transmission season among children < 2 years.

Measurement of functional impairment is a priority for the military and other professional work groups routinely exposed to stressful traumatic events as part of their occupation. Standard measures of impairment used in general or chronically ill populations contain many items not suitable for these populations, and include mental health symptoms items that are not true measures of functioning. We created a new, 14-item scale-the Walter Reed Functional Impairment Scale-to assess functioning in 4 domains (physical, occupational, social, and personal). We asked 3,380 soldiers how much difficulty they currently have in each of the 4 domains on a 5-point scale. Behaviorally based psychosocial and occupational performance measures and general health questions were used to validate the scale. The utility of the scale was assessed against clinical measures of psychopathology and physical health (depression, posttraumatic stress disorder [PTSD], general health, generalized physical symptoms). We utilized Cronbach's alpha, item response theory, and the score test for trend to establish consistency of items and the validity of the scale. The scale exhibited excellent reliability (Cronbach's α= 0.92) and validity. The individual items and quartiles of sum scores were strongly correlated with negative occupational and social performance, and the utility of the scale was demonstrated by strong correlations with depression, PTSD, and high levels of generalized physical symptoms. This scale exhibits excellent psychometric properties in this sample of U.S. soldiers and, pending future research, is likely to have utility for other healthy occupational groups.

A series of nine experiments are reported in which highly practiced subjects were used to investigate the use of letters, digits, familiar geometric shapes, and colored dots as coding dimensions in visual displays. These experiments used single-code and dual-code displays in three isolated tasks (choice reaction, search and locate, and identification-memory) and in a multiple task that combined the three tasks in an irregularly alternating sequence. The results of these experiments provided no basis for concluding that any particular code has a general advantage or disadvantage over any other. Furthermore, when there were differences in performance with different codes, there was a tendency for practice to attenuate those differences. It is concluded that the relative effectiveness of different visual codes varies as a function of practice, other display conditions, the tasks, and the dependent measure used to make the comparison.

Computer simulation models are frequently used to determine the combination of levels for a set of independent variables at which a response variable is optimized. This process leads to problems of experi mental design, i.e., the choice of levels of the independent variables at which the simulation model is to be run and at which the model's responses are to be observed. This paper considers second-order response-surface designs and optimization procedures for use in this situation. Several classes of designs are constructed and applied to surfaces typically generated by computer simulation models. Results are obtained which should assist in the selection of de signs in general or for use on specific surfaces. An application of second-order response-surface de signs to a digital simulator of a street network is presented; the object is to find optimal settings for the traffic signals during the morning peak of traffic flow.

Heavy alcohol use in college students is a serious health risk. It is unclear how cultural variables impact alcohol use in Hispanic college populations. Here, the relationships between gender, bicultural identity, familism, and adherence to traditional gender roles with heavy episodic drinking (HED) in a Hispanic college sample are assessed. Participants, 80 males and 80 females, were asked to complete a questionnaire packet, which assessed demographic information, as well as measures designed to rate drinking amount and frequency, bicultural integration, familism, and traditional gender role adherence. Average age of the sample was 19.9 years (SD = 3.05), in which the majority of participants were classified as either Freshmen or Sophomores (88.8%). Overall, 47.5% of participants reported engaging in HED, with 51% of men and 44% of women reporting HED. Univariate analyses along with logistic regression were utilized to assess possible differences and correlates of HED. Neither individual predictors nor the overall model were statistically significant. These findings suggest the need for continued assessment of HED in Hispanic college students using other culturally based constructs, as well as psychosocial factors that are found to predict heavy drinking in other ethnocultural college-aged students.

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The U.S. Army has focused on developing leader competencies in order to promote adaptability for asymmetric warfare. Expanding leader adaptive capacity, however, requires integrating competencies with deeper knowledge structures and leader identity. We conduct a three-stage exploratory study using semistructured interviews and three separate samples of experienced combat leaders to assess the organization of tactical leader functional roles. We identify the breadth of roles, tasks, skills, and attributes representative of expert tactical military leaders. We hope to take a first step in circumscribing the requisite cognitive and behavioral complexity required of tactical leaders and thereby provide a referent structure for future research on what constitutes requisite complexity for tactical military leaders.

The civilian population has been described as ‘the center of gravity in irregular warfare’. Understanding the behavioral response of the civilian population in irregular warfare operations presents a major challenge area to the joint modeling and simulation community where there is a clear need for the development of models, methods, and tools to address civilian behavior response. This paper provides a conceptual and theoretical overview of the Cultural Geography (CG) model, a government-owned, open-source agent-based model designed to address the behavioral response of civilian populations in conflict environments. With an embedded case study, we describe the development of cognitive modules to represent the civilian population and their implementation as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), the social structure module implemented using homophily, the process of adjudicating the effects of tactical level outcomes on a population segment within the model, and a sample case study analysis using a designed experiment.

Abstract Blue strike aircraft enter region ℛ to attack Red targets. In Case 1, Blue conducts (preplanned) SEAD to establish air superiority. In the (reactive) SEAD scenario, which is Case 2, such superiority is already in place, but is jeopardized by prohibitive interference from Red, which threatens Blue's ability to conduct missions. We utilize both deterministic and stochastic models to explore optimal tactics for Red in such engagements. Policies are developed which will guide both Red's determination of the modes of operation of his engagement radar, and his choice of Blue opponent to target next. An index in the form of a simple transaction kill ratio plays a major role throughout. Published 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 723–742, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10046

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We examined the effects of ultra-brief training in mindfulness and cognitive reappraisal on affective response and performance under stress. We hypothesized that one or both types of training would decrease affective responding and improve performance, and that these effects might be moderated by acute stress induction. DESIGN: = 112, ages 18-35) completed two sessions on different days. In each session, they received mindfulness or cognitive reappraisal training or listened to a control script prior to a low- or high-stress simulated hostage situation. We measured motor performance efficiency (proportion of shots that hit hostile and hostage targets), affective responding (self-reported anxiety, salivary cortisol and alpha amylase, and autonomic physiology), and physical activity. RESULTS: Compared to control instructions, ultra-brief training in cognitive reappraisal or mindfulness reduced subjective anxiety and increased performance efficiency. There were few effects of training on other measures. CONCLUSION: Ultra-brief training in cognitive reappraisal or mindfulness prior to a stressful task may be both helpful and harmful; effects are preliminary and subject to boundary conditions.

Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (AI/ML) is a foundational requirement for Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). To solve some of MDO’s most critical problems, for example, penetrating and dis-integrating an adversary’s antiaccess/area denial (A2/AD) systems, the future force requires the ability to converge capabilities from across multiple domains at speeds and scales beyond human cognitive abilities. This requires robust, interoperable AI/ML that operates across multiple layers: from optimizing technologies and platforms, to fusing data from multiple sources, to transferring knowledge across joint functions to accomplish critical MDO tactical tasks. This paper provides an overview of ongoing work from the Unified Quest Future Study Plan and other events with the Army’s Futures and Concepts Center to operationalize AI/ML to address MDO problems with this layered approach. It includes insights and required AI/ML capabilities determined with subject matter experts from various organizations at these learning events over the past two years, as well as vignettes that illustrate how AI/ML can be operationalized to enable successful Multi-Domain Operations against a near peer adversary.

The transformation of the US Army to the Objective Force will rely heavily upon the use of modeling and simulation (M&S) for analysis, including assessment of our ability to fight in urban environments. Current model research for military operations in urban terrain (MOUT) is disjoint. Current models are judged to be insufficient as a foundation for simulation of urban operations. The Army Model and Simulation Office (AMSO) has formed a Focus Area Collaborative Team (FACT) to address these issues. The MOUT FACT directs all future urban operations modeling efforts to ensure that new simulations credibly depict MOUT. The MOUT FACT employs a top-down approach designed to (1) identify the best urban M&S projects that will address prioritized deficiencies and (2) identify potential collaboration opportunities. This paper details the methodology employed by the MOUT FACT to develop the urban M&S research plan and the results of its efforts to date.

Army Officer requirements for operational talent decline precipitously with increasing rank. While 80 percent of Junior Officers serve in operational billets, only 20 percent of Senior Leaders serve in operational billets. Yet despite this operational talent requirement inversion, Army development efforts tend to focus disproportionately on building operational talent. Moreover, career progression through the rank of General Officer tends to excessively favor officers who have spent most of their career in operational billets. By opening additional opportunities for officers who serve outside of operational billets to reach senior leader ranks, and by exposing more officers to opportunities that develop non-operational talents, the Army can mitigate against talent gaps at senior ranks. This analysis employs discrete event simulation to quantify the extent to which attrition, promotion, and the dynamically changing need for two types of talent (operational and non-operational) impact the distribution of talent available across the Army's officer ranks.

A methodology is described for designing direct manipulation interfaces for operators performing supervisory control functions in complex dynamic systems with the aid of a computer-based operator's associate. The interface provides the operator's associate with the necessary information to infer the operator's intensions without degrading the overall system performance. The methodology employs design principles that support effective supervisory control and facilitate intent inferencing by a computer-based operator's associate. Using this methodology, a direct manipulation interface was developed for a simulated NASA satellite ground control system.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>

Information superiority is considered a critical capability for future joint forces. As advances in technology continue to boost our ability to communicate in new and different ways, military forces are restructuring to incorporate these technologies. Yet we are still limited in our ability to measure the contributions made by information networks. We describe three recent studies at the Naval Postgraduate School that involve information networks. First, we examine a simulation model expanded from a two-person, zero-sum game to explore how information superiority contributes to battlefield results and how sensitive it is to information quality. Second, we examine how network-enabled communications affect the logistics operations in a centralized receiving and shipping point. The results are intended to provide operational insights for terminal node operations within a sustainment base. Third, we explore how social networks might be incorporated into agent-based models representing civilian populations in stability operations.

Networked simulators and computer-supported wargames approaches to simulated training environments that support military collective training of units are discussed. The author attempts to clarify the role of the two technologies in order to facilitate better understanding and to aid further development of each using the most promising scientific ideas. The networking of simulators approach is compared to computer-supported wargaming first in a cognitive perspective. Then, they are compared in terms of the computer technologies they use, both in their hardware and software designs. Some significant directions for basic research to improve both approaches are considered.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>

The development of tools to provide insight into the behavioral response of a civilian population will greatly benefit the modeling and simulation community and have potential applications across multiple user communities in the U.S. Department of Defense. We present an overview of a modular agent-based modeling framework, grounded in the human behavioral and social theory, which is intended to represent a populations’ stance on issues as a function of their changing beliefs, values and interests. We utilize and integrate theories of narrative identity [1] and planned behavior [2] with macrosociological theories of heterogeneity and influence [3][4] to model civilian behavior in a conflict ecosystem. Communication between agents takes place across a social network developed using real data about the population under consideration, and essential services are implemented as objects within the model allowing for experimentation with different courses of action for development of civil service capacity. We describe the theoretical underpinnings of the model, the current state of implementation, potential use cases, and the path forward for future work.