United Nations University

The notion of ‘transformations towards sustainability’ takes an increasingly central position in global sustainability research and policy discourse in recent years. Governance and politics are central to understanding and analysing transformations towards sustainability. However, despite receiving growing attention in recent years, the governance and politics aspects of transformations remain arguably under-developed in the global sustainability literature. A variety of conceptual approaches have been developed to understand and analyse societal transition or transformation processes, including: socio-technical transitions, social-ecological systems, sustainability pathways, and transformative adaptation. This paper critically surveys these four approaches, and reflects on them through the lens of the Earth System Governance framework (Biermann et al., 2009). This contributes to appreciating existing insights on transformations, and to identifying key research challenges and opportunities. Overall, the paper brings together diverse perspectives, that have so far remained largely fragmented, in order to strengthen the foundation for future research on transformations towards sustainability.

The United Nations conference in Rio de Janeiro in June is an important opportunity to improve the institutional framework for sustainable development.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in women. In fact, CVD is responsible for a third of all deaths of women worldwide and half of all deaths of women over 50 years of age in developing countries. The prevalence of CVD risk factor precursors is increasing in children. Retrospective analyses suggest that there are some clinically relevant differences between women and men in terms of prevalence, presentation, management and outcomes of the disease, but little is known about why CVD affects women and men differently. For instance, women with diabetes have a significantly higher CVD mortality rate than men with diabetes. Similarly, women with atrial fibrillation are at greater risk of stroke than men with atrial fibrillation. Historically, women have been underrepresented in clinical trials. The lack of good trial evidence concerning sex-specific outcomes has led to assumptions about CVD treatment in women, which in turn may have resulted in inadequate diagnoses and suboptimal management, greatly affecting outcomes. This knowledge gap may also explain why cardiovascular health in women is not improving as fast as that of men. Over the last decades, mortality rates in men have steadily declined, while those in women remained stable. It is also becoming increasingly evident that gender differences in cultural, behavioural, psychosocial and socioeconomic status are responsible, to various degrees, for the observed differences between women and men. However, the interaction between sex-and gender-related factors and CVD outcomes in women remains largely unknown.

The scale of environmental impacts associated with the manufacture of microchips is characterized through analysis of material and energy inputs into processes in the production chain. The total weight of secondary fossil fuel and chemical inputs to produce and use a single 2-gram 32MB DRAM chip are estimated at 1600 g and 72 g, respectively. Use of water and elemental gases (mainly N2) in the fabrication stage are 32,000 and 700 g per chip, respectively. The production chain yielding silicon wafers from quartz uses 160 times the energy required for typical silicon, indicating that purification to semiconductor grade materials is energy intensive. Due to its extremely low-entropy, organized structure, the materials intensity of a microchip is orders of magnitude higher than that of "traditional" goods. Future analysis of semiconductor and other low entropy high-tech goods needs to include the use of secondary materials, especially for purification.

Post-disaster recovery processes should be considered as opportunities for development, by revitalizing the local economy and upgrading livelihoods and living conditions. Social capital, which is defined as a function of trust, social norms, participation, and network, can play an important role in recovery. This paper examines the role of social capital in the post earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction programs in two cases: Kobe, Japan and Gujarat, India. The Kobe case study shows that the community with social capital and with a tradition of community activities can pro-actively participate in the reconstruction program, and thereby can make a successful and speedy recovery. A model for bonding, bridging and linking social capital was developed from the Kobe experience, and was applied to Gujarat in four different communities. It was observed that the community with social capital records the highest satisfaction rate for the new town planning and has the speediest recovery rate. The role of community leaders has been prominent in utilizing social capital in the recovery process, and facilitating collective decision-making. Thus, although the two case studies differ in socio-economic and cultural contexts, the communities’ social capital and leadership are found to be the most effective elements in both cases in enhancing collective actions and disaster recovery.

Abstract. Over recent decades, the global population has been rapidly increasing and human activities have altered terrestrial water fluxes to an unprecedented extent. The phenomenal growth of the human footprint has significantly modified hydrological processes in various ways (e.g. irrigation, artificial dams, and water diversion) and at various scales (from a watershed to the globe). During the early 1990s, awareness of the potential for increased water scarcity led to the first detailed global water resource assessments. Shortly thereafter, in order to analyse the human perturbation on terrestrial water resources, the first generation of large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) was produced. However, at this early stage few models considered the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes and human activities, including water use and reservoir regulation, and even fewer models distinguished water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Since the early 2000s, a growing number of LHMs have incorporated human impacts on the hydrological cycle, yet the representation of human activities in hydrological models remains challenging. In this paper we provide a synthesis of progress in the development and application of human impact modelling in LHMs. We highlight a number of key challenges and discuss possible improvements in order to better represent the human–water interface in hydrological models.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to draw attention of the education for sustainable development (ESD) community to recent discussions on competence approaches and to examine the adequacy of a competence‐based model as the means of achieving educational and societal transformation towards sustainability. The paper analyses and highlights some important aspects of case studies of the contributing authors to the special issue. Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on the review of relevant literature and reflections on the articles that constitute this special issue. It also reflects the authors' observations through their extensive interactions with theoreticians, practitioners and policy makers on ESD in the context of the United Nations decade of education for sustainable development (DESD) and higher education for sustainable development (HESD). Findings The paper recognises a highly complex nature of the conceptualizations of competences for SD and their articulation in educational programmes. It also highlights a growing interest in competence‐based approaches from institutions of higher education and their stakeholders in different parts of the world. Practical implications The paper provides a broad picture of influential international processes and diverse players driving competence‐based approaches in ESD and indicates a need for more coherent critical multi‐level analysis of such processes. Originality/value The paper contributes to a broader debate on strategies of implementation of ESD and education for sustainability (EfS) by mapping arguments on competences for SD and sustainability with a particular focus on higher education institutions.

To understand the genetic basis of tolerance to drought and heat stresses in chickpea, a comprehensive association mapping approach has been undertaken. Phenotypic data were generated on the reference set (300 accessions, including 211 mini-core collection accessions) for drought tolerance related root traits, heat tolerance, yield and yield component traits from 1-7 seasons and 1-3 locations in India (Patancheru, Kanpur, Bangalore) and three locations in Africa (Nairobi, Egerton in Kenya and Debre Zeit in Ethiopia). Diversity Array Technology (DArT) markers equally distributed across chickpea genome were used to determine population structure and three sub-populations were identified using admixture model in STRUCTURE. The pairwise linkage disequilibrium (LD) estimated using the squared-allele frequency correlations (r2; when r2<0.20) was found to decay rapidly with the genetic distance of 5 cM. For establishing marker-trait associations (MTAs), both genome-wide and candidate gene-sequencing based association mapping approaches were conducted using 1,872 markers (1,072 DArTs, 651 single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs], 113 gene-based SNPs and 36 simple sequence repeats [SSRs]) and phenotyping data mentioned above employing mixed linear model (MLM) analysis with optimum compression with P3D method and kinship matrix. As a result, 312 significant MTAs were identified and a maximum number of MTAs (70) was identified for 100-seed weight. A total of 18 SNPs from 5 genes (ERECTA, 11 SNPs; ASR, 4 SNPs; DREB, 1 SNP; CAP2 promoter, 1 SNP and AMDH, 1SNP) were significantly associated with different traits. This study provides significant MTAs for drought and heat tolerance in chickpea that can be used, after validation, in molecular breeding for developing superior varieties with enhanced drought and heat tolerance.

The total energy and fossil fuels used in producing a desktop computer with 17-in. CRT monitor are estimated at 6400 megajoules (MJ) and 260 kg, respectively. This indicates that computer manufacturing is energy intensive: the ratio of fossil fuel use to product weight is 11, an order of magnitude larger than the factor of 1-2 for many other manufactured goods. This high energy intensity of manufacturing, combined with rapid turnover in computers, results in an annual life cycle energy burden that is surprisingly high: about 2600 MJ per year, 1.3 times that of a refrigerator. In contrast with many home appliances, life cycle energy use of a computer is dominated by production (81%) as opposed to operation (19%). Extension of usable lifespan (e.g. by reselling or upgrading) is thus a promising approach to mitigating energy impacts as well as other environmental burdens associated with manufacturing and disposal.

Preventing humanitarian atrocities is becoming as important for the United Nations as dealing with inter-state war. In this book, Ramesh Thakur examines the transformation in UN operations, analysing its changing role and structure. He asks why, when and how force may be used and argues that the growing gulf between legality and legitimacy is evidence of an eroded sense of international community. He considers the tension between the US, with its capacity to use force and project power, and the UN, as the centre of the international law enforcement system. He asserts the central importance of the rule of law and of a rules-based order focused on the UN as the foundation of a civilised system of international relations. This book will be of interest to students of the UN and international organisations in politics, law and international relations departments, as well as policymakers in the UN and other NGOs.

This article attempts to clarify what is meant by “root causes” and considers if their analysis helps to explain and describe how, where, and why terrorism occurs. In attempting to explore—but not definitively resolve—these challenges, the article will attempt to delineate “root causes” into qualitative and quantitative variables that can be empirically tested in relation to contemporary terrorist activity. In so doing, it considers the relative merits of different methodologies for approaching “root causes.” The article concludes that indirect and underlying sources of conflict are significant to understanding specific incidents of terrorism and certain categories of terrorism; that “root causes” are less helpful in describing and explaining terrorism as a general phenomenon; and that root causes are of analytical use only in conjunction with precipitant factors.

The increase in cases of political corruption, the loss of politicians' credibility, the development of social and political forms of pathology (notably the rise of the extreme right along with exclusionist ideologies), and the role of the State have been at the center of political debates. In one way or another, these problems raise the question of the legitimacy of the established powers. The result is that legitimacy, a key notion of political thought in general, has today become a burning issue. Coicaud examines all these issues and proffers insightful answers to questions such as the connections between morality and politics, how rulers acquire or lose the right to govern, and how one can become the advocate of a theory of political justice that, while establishing limits, respects and even ensures the promotion of plurality within societies.

Floodplain ecosystems are biodiversity hotspots and supply multiple ecosystem services. At the same time they are often prone to human pressures that increasingly impact their intactness. Multifunctional floodplain management can be defined as a management approach aimed at a balanced supply of multiple ecosystem services that serve the needs of the local residents, but also those of off-site populations that are directly or indirectly impacted by floodplain management and policies. Multifunctional floodplain management has been recently proposed as a key concept to reconcile biodiversity and ecosystem services with the various human pressures and their driving forces. In this paper we present biophysics and management history of floodplains and review recent multifunctional management approaches and evidence for their biodiversity effects for the six European countries Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany, Slovakia, Hungary and the Ukraine. Multifunctional use of floodplains is an increasingly important strategy in some countries, for instance in the Netherlands and Hungary, and management of floodplains goes hand in hand with sustainable economic activities resulting in flood safety and biodiversity conservation. As a result, biodiversity is increasing in some of the areas where multifunctional floodplain management approaches are implemented. We conclude that for efficient use of management resources and ecosystem services, consensual solutions need to be realized and biodiversity needs to be mainstreamed into management activities to maximize ecosystem service provision and potential human benefits. Multifunctionality is more successful where a broad range of stakeholders with diverse expertise and interests are involved in all stages of planning and implementation.

Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models' ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model-a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble

The increase in cases of political corruption, the loss of politicians' credibility, the development of social and political forms of pathology (notably the rise of the extreme right along with exclusionist ideologies), and the role of the State have been at the center of political debates. In one way or another, these problems raise the question of the legitimacy of the established powers. The result is that legitimacy, a key notion of political thought in general, has today become a burning issue. Coicaud examines all these issues and proffers insightful answers to questions such as the connections between morality and politics, how rulers acquire or lose the right to govern, and how one can become the advocate of a theory of political justice that, while establishing limits, respects and even ensures the promotion of plurality within societies

This book on the Treaty of Versailles constitutes a new synthesis of peace conference scholarship. It illuminates events from the armistice in 1918 to the signing of the treaty in 1919, scrutinizing the motives, actions and constraints that informed decision-making by the French, American and English politicians who bore the principal responsibility for drafting the peace settlement. It also addresses German reactions to the draft treaty and the final agreement, as well as Germany's role in the immediate postwar period. The findings call attention to diverging peace aims within the American and Allied camps and underscore the degree to which the negotiators themselves considered the Versailles Treaty a work in progress. A detailed examination of the proceedings from the point of view of the main protagonists forms the core of the investigation.

OBJECTIVE: To build a prediction model that estimates the 3-year rupture risk of unruptured saccular cerebral aneurysms. METHODS: Survival analysis was done using each aneurysm as the unit for analysis. Derivation data were from the Unruptured Cerebral Aneurysm Study (UCAS) in Japan. It consists of patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms enrolled between 2000 and 2004 at neurosurgical departments at tertiary care hospitals in Japan. The model was presented as a scoring system, and aneurysms were classified into 4 risk grades by predicted 3-year rupture risk: I, < 1%; II, 1 to 3%; III, 3 to 9%, and IV, >9%. The discrimination property and calibration plot of the model were evaluated with external validation data. They were a combination of 3 Japanese cohort studies: UCAS II, the Small Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Verification study, and the study at Jikei University School of Medicine. RESULTS: The derivation data include 6,606 unruptured cerebral aneurysms in 5,651 patients. During the 11,482 aneurysm-year follow-up period, 107 ruptures were observed. The predictors chosen for the scoring system were patient age, sex, and hypertension, along with aneurysm size, location, and the presence of a daughter sac. The 3-year risk of rupture ranged from <1% to >15% depending on the individual characteristics of patients and aneurysms. External validation indicated good discrimination and calibration properties. INTERPRETATION: A simple scoring system that only needs easily available patient and aneurysmal information was constructed. This can be used in clinical decision making regarding management of unruptured cerebral aneurysms.

Mountains are highly sensitive to climate change. Their elevated areas provide essential ecosystem services both for the surrounding mountainous regions and particularly for adjacent lowlands. Impacts of a warmer climate affect these services and have negative consequences on the supply of water, on biodiversity and on protection from natural hazards. Mountain social-ecological systems are affected by these changes, which also influence communities' risk perception and responses to changing climate conditions. Therefore, to understand individual and societal responses to climate change in mountain areas, aspects and drivers of risk perception need to be scrutinised. This article presents the findings of a literature review of recent English language publications on risk perception in connection to climate change and related natural hazards in mountain regions worldwide. Studies were selected from recorded entries in JSTOR, Science Direct, Scopus and Web of Science covering the period 2000-2019 and analysed in two steps (structured exploratory analysis, n = 249 and in-depth analysis, n = 72) with respect to the studies' research question, methodology, geographical scope and risk perception drivers. The review reveals that socio-demographic factors, like gender, age and personal experiences, have a crucial impact on individual risk perception. Some of the less tangible but nevertheless decisive factors are important in mountain regions such as place attachment and socio-cultural practices. In conclusion, there is however little information in the literature which addresses the specific situation of risk perception in mountain areas and its influence on communities' responses to environmental changes. Further, we observed a strong gap concerning the integration of indigenous knowledge in risk perception research. Many studies overlook or oversimplify local knowledge and the cultural dimensions of risk perception. Based on these results, the paper identifies several gaps in research and knowledge which may influence the design of climate risk management strategies as well as on their successful implementation.

Major impacts include greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric pollution, water overconsumption and pollution, deforestation, biodiversity loss, rural development, food security, energy security, public health, and social conflicts.

We investigated the effects of climate change on rainfed rice yield using the CERES-rice crop growth model and identified suitable agro-adaptation measures to address the threats induced by climate change on rice production in Northeast Thailand. The crop physiological data from field experiments conducted in the region was used to calibrate the model. Future climate scenarios for the periods 2020-2029, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089 were developed using the global climate model ECHAM4 and downscaled using the regional climate model PRECIS. Results indicated a decline in the rice yield in the region by 17.81, 27.59 and 24.34% for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared to the average yield during 1997-2006 under the ECHAM4 A2 climate change scenario. Simulation experiments suggested that for a given temperature, the yields of 2 rice varieties, KDML105 and RD6, increase with increases in CO 2 concentration. On the contrary, increases in temperature reduce the yield at a constant CO 2 concentration. The overall decrease in yield under future climatic conditions can be mitigated significantly by proper nutrient management and altering planting dates. Hybrid rice cultivars having a high temperature tolerance can also help to address the challenges imposed by future climate.