University of Wisconsin System

Abstract In this paper a method of estimating the parameters of a set of regression equations is reported which involves application of Aitken's generalized least-squares [1] to the whole system of equations. Under conditions generally encountered in practice, it is found that the regression coefficient estimators so obtained are at least asymptotically more efficient than those obtained by an equation-by-equation application of least squares. This gain in efficiency can be quite large if “independent” variables in different equations are not highly correlated and if disturbance terms in different equations are highly correlated. Further, tests of the hypothesis that all regression equation coefficient vectors are equal, based on “micro” and “macro” data, are described. If this hypothesis is accepted, there will be no aggregation bias. Finally, the estimation procedure and the “micro-test” for aggregation bias are applied in the analysis of annual investment data, 1935–1954, for two firms.

Toward defining the course of evolution: minimum change for a specific tree topology. Syst. Zool., 20:406–416.—A method is presented that is asserted to provide all hypothetical ancestral character states that are consistent with describing the descent of the present-day character states in a minimum number of changes of state using a predetermined phylogenetic relationship among the taxa represented. The character states used as examples are the four messenger RNA nucleotides encoding the amino acid sequences of proteins, but the method is general.

As new drugs are developed, it is essential to appropriately translate the drug dosage from one animal species to another. A misunderstanding appears to exist regarding the appropriate method for allometric dose translations, especially when starting new animal or clinical studies. The need for education regarding appropriate translation is evident from the media response regarding some recent studies where authors have shown that resveratrol, a compound found in grapes and red wine, improves the health and life span of mice. Immediately after the online publication of these papers, the scientific community and popular press voiced concerns regarding the relevance of the dose of resveratrol used by the authors. The animal dose should not be extrapolated to a human equivalent dose (HED) by a simple conversion based on body weight, as was reported. For the more appropriate conversion of drug doses from animal studies to human studies, we suggest using the body surface area (BSA) normalization method. BSA correlates well across several mammalian species with several parameters of biology, including oxygen utilization, caloric expenditure, basal metabolism, blood volume, circulating plasma proteins, and renal function. We advocate the use of BSA as a factor when converting a dose for translation from animals to humans, especially for phase I and phase II clinical trials.

Using 6 longitudinal data sets, the authors estimate links between three key elements of school readiness--school-entry academic, attention, and socioemotional skills--and later school reading and math achievement. In an effort to isolate the effects of these school-entry skills, the authors ensured that most of their regression models control for cognitive, attention, and socioemotional skills measured prior to school entry, as well as a host of family background measures. Across all 6 studies, the strongest predictors of later achievement are school-entry math, reading, and attention skills. A meta-analysis of the results shows that early math skills have the greatest predictive power, followed by reading and then attention skills. By contrast, measures of socioemotional behaviors, including internalizing and externalizing problems and social skills, were generally insignificant predictors of later academic performance, even among children with relatively high levels of problem behavior. Patterns of association were similar for boys and girls and for children from high and low socioeconomic backgrounds.

PURPOSE: The development of computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) methods for lung nodule detection, classification, and quantitative assessment can be facilitated through a well-characterized repository of computed tomography (CT) scans. The Lung Image Database Consortium (LIDC) and Image Database Resource Initiative (IDRI) completed such a database, establishing a publicly available reference for the medical imaging research community. Initiated by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), further advanced by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH), and accompanied by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) through active participation, this public-private partnership demonstrates the success of a consortium founded on a consensus-based process. METHODS: Seven academic centers and eight medical imaging companies collaborated to identify, address, and resolve challenging organizational, technical, and clinical issues to provide a solid foundation for a robust database. The LIDC/IDRI Database contains 1018 cases, each of which includes images from a clinical thoracic CT scan and an associated XML file that records the results of a two-phase image annotation process performed by four experienced thoracic radiologists. In the initial blinded-read phase, each radiologist independently reviewed each CT scan and marked lesions belonging to one of three categories ("nodule > or =3 mm," "nodule <3 mm," and "non-nodule > or =3 mm"). In the subsequent unblinded-read phase, each radiologist independently reviewed their own marks along with the anonymized marks of the three other radiologists to render a final opinion. The goal of this process was to identify as completely as possible all lung nodules in each CT scan without requiring forced consensus. RESULTS: The Database contains 7371 lesions marked "nodule" by at least one radiologist. 2669 of these lesions were marked "nodule > or =3 mm" by at least one radiologist, of which 928 (34.7%) received such marks from all four radiologists. These 2669 lesions include nodule outlines and subjective nodule characteristic ratings. CONCLUSIONS: The LIDC/IDRI Database is expected to provide an essential medical imaging research resource to spur CAD development, validation, and dissemination in clinical practice.

Abstract This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects of CO 2 or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected in current research on climate change. Temperature directly affects development, survival, range and abundance. Species with a large geographical range will tend to be less affected. The main effect of temperature in temperate regions is to influence winter survival; at more northerly latitudes, higher temperatures extend the summer season, increasing the available thermal budget for growth and reproduction. Photoperiod is the dominant cue for the seasonal synchrony of temperate insects, but their thermal requirements may differ at different times of year. Interactions between photoperiod and temperature determine phenology; the two factors do not necessarily operate in tandem. Insect herbivores show a number of distinct life‐history strategies to exploit plants with different growth forms and strategies, which will be differentially affected by climate warming. There are still many challenges facing biologists in predicting and monitoring the impacts of climate change. Future research needs to consider insect herbivore phenotypic and genotypic flexibility, their responses to global change parameters operating in concert, and awareness that some patterns may only become apparent in the longer term.

Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur. Resilient social-ecological systems incorporate diverse mechanisms for living with, and learning from, change and unexpected shocks. Disaster management requires multilevel governance systems that can enhance the capacity to cope with uncertainty and surprise by mobilizing diverse sources of resilience.

Abstract The primary objectives of this article are (a) to put forth an explicit operational formulation of positive human health that goes beyond prevailing "absence of illness" criteria; (b) to clarify that positive human health does not derive from extant medical considerations, which are not about wellness, but necessarily require a base in philosophical accounts of the "goods" in life; (c) to provoke a change of emphasis from strong tendencies to construe human health as exclusively about the mind or the body toward an integrated and positive spiral of mind-body influences; (d) to delineate possible physiological substrates of human flourishing and offer future directions for understanding the biology of positive health; and (e) to discuss implications of positive health for diverse scientific agendas (e.g., stress, class and health, work and family life) and for practice in health fields (e.g., training, health examinations, psychotherapy, and wellness intervention programs).

The authors investigated the emergence of gender differences in clinical depression and the overall development of depression from preadolescence to young adulthood among members of a complete birth cohort using a prospective longitudinal approach with structured diagnostic interviews administered 5 times over the course of 10 years. Small gender differences in depression (females greater than males) first began to emerge between the ages of 13 and 15. However, the greatest increase in this gender difference occurred between ages 15 and 18. Depression rates and accompanying gender differences for a university student subsample were no different than for a nonuniversity subsample. There was no gender difference for depression recurrence or for depression symptom severity. The peak increase in both overall rates of depression and new cases of depression occurred between the ages of 15 and 18. Results suggest that middle-to-late adolescence (ages 15-18) may be a critical time for studying vulnerability to depression because of the higher depression rates and the greater risk for depression onset and dramatic increase in gender differences in depression during this period.

(1948). A Simple Objective Technique for Measuring Flexibility in Thinking. The Journal of General Psychology: Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 15-22.

Abstract Many statistical models, and in particular autoregressive—moving average time series models, can be regarded as means of transforming the data to white noise, that is, to an uncorrected sequence of errors. If the parameters are known exactly, this random sequence can be computed directly from the observations; when this calculation is made with estimates substituted for the true parameter values, the resulting sequence is referred to as the “residuals,” which can be regarded as estimates of the errors. If the appropriate model has been chosen, there will be zero autocorrelation in the errors. In checking adequacy of fit it is therefore logical to study the sample autocorrelation function of the residuals. For large samples the residuals from a correctly fitted model resemble very closely the true errors of the process; however, care is needed in interpreting the serial correlations of the residuals. It is shown here that the residual autocorrelations are to a close approximation representable as a singular linear transformation of the autocorrelations of the errors so that they possess a singular normal distribution. Failing to allow for this results in a tendency to overlook evidence of lack of fit. Tests of fit and diagnostic checks are devised which take these facts into account.

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is the world’s most important non-grain food crop and is central to global food security. It is clonally propagated, highly heterozygous, autotetraploid, and suffers acute inbreeding depression. Here we use a homozygous doubled-monoploid potato clone to sequence and assemble 86% of the 844-megabase genome. We predict 39,031 protein-coding genes and present evidence for at least two genome duplication events indicative of a palaeopolyploid origin. As the first genome sequence of an asterid, the potato genome reveals 2,642 genes specific to this large angiosperm clade. We also sequenced a heterozygous diploid clone and show that gene presence/absence variants and other potentially deleterious mutations occur frequently and are a likely cause of inbreeding depression. Gene family expansion, tissue-specific expression and recruitment of genes to new pathways contributed to the evolution of tuber development. The potato genome sequence provides a platform for genetic improvement of this vital crop. The genome of the potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), a staple crop vital to food security, has been sequenced. The Potato Genome Sequencing Consortium sequenced a homozygous doubled-monoploid potato clone as well as a heterozygous diploid clone. Genome analysis reveals traces of at least two genome duplication events and genes specific to Asterids, a large clade of flowering plants of which the potato is the first to be sequenced. Gene presence/absence variants and other potentially deleterious mutations are frequent and may be the cause of inbreeding depression. The genome sequence will facilitate genetic improvements in the potato with a view to improving yield and to increasing disease and stress resistance of this crop, which is a now a significant component of worldwide food production and is becoming increasingly important in the developing world.

We evaluated a semiquantitative culture technic for identifying infection due to intravenous catheters: rolling the catheter segment across blood agar. This method was compared to broth culture. Of 250 catheters studied, 225 (90%) had low-density colonization on semiquantitative culture (less than 15 colonies on the plate) although 49 (19.6%) of these grew some organisms in broth or on the plate. None of these catheters led to septicemia. Twenty-five catheters (10%) grew greater than or equal to 15 colonies by the semiquantitative technic; most gave confluent growth. Septicemia originated from four of these catheters (P = 0.008). Of 37 catheters exposed to bacteremias from distant foci of infection, four yielded matching growth in broth, whereas none were concordant with the blood isolate on semiquantitative culture. Local inflammation was associated with high-density colonization semiquantitative culture (P less than 0.001). The semiquantitative technic distinguishes infection (greater than or equal to 15 colonies) from contamination and is more specific in diagnosis of catheter-related septicemia than culture of the catheter in broth.

Abstract We create a new index that measures the extent of openness in capital account transactions. Despite the abundance of literature and policy analyses regarding the effect of financial liberalization, the debate is far from settled. One of the reasons for that outcome is the lack of proper ways of measuring the extent of the openness in cross-border financial transactions. We seek to remedy this deficiency by creating an index aimed at measuring the extensity of capital controls based on the information from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER). This paper details how we construct the data and where our index stands in relation to the extant literature. Given the intricacy of capital controls policies and regulations, the exercise of quantifying the extent of financial openness remains a challenging task. Nonetheless, our index makes a substantial contribution in terms of its coverage of countries and time period; the data are available for 181 countries for the 1970–2005 period.

The Handbook of Psychophysiology has been the authoritative resource for more than a quarter of a century. Since the third edition was published a decade ago, the field of psychophysiological science has seen significant advances, both in traditional measures such as electroencephalography, event-related brain potentials, and cardiovascular assessments, and in novel approaches and methods in behavioural epigenetics, neuroimaging, psychoneuroimmunology, psychoneuroendocrinology, neuropsychology, behavioural genetics, connectivity analyses, and non-contact sensors. At the same time, a thoroughgoing interdisciplinary focus has emerged as essential to scientific progress. Emphasizing the need for multiple measures, careful experimental design, and logical inference, the fourth edition of the Handbook provides updated and expanded coverage of approaches, methods, and analyses in the field. With state-of-the-art reviews of research in topical areas such as stress, emotion, development, language, psychopathology, and behavioural medicine, the Handbook remains the essential reference for students and scientists in the behavioural, cognitive, and biological sciences.

BACKGROUND: If most adults with mental disorders are found to have a juvenile psychiatric history, this would shift etiologic research and prevention policy to focus more on childhood mental disorders. METHOD: Our prospective longitudinal study followed up a representative birth cohort (N = 1037). We made psychiatric diagnoses according to DSM criteria at 11, 13, 15, 18, 21, and 26 years of age. Adult disorders were defined in the following 3 ways: (1) cases diagnosed using a standardized diagnostic interview, (2) the subset using treatment, and (3) the subset receiving intensive mental health services. Follow-back analyses ascertained the proportion of adult cases who had juvenile diagnoses and the types of juvenile diagnoses they had. RESULTS: Among adult cases defined via the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, 73.9% had received a diagnosis before 18 years of age and 50.0% before 15 years of age. Among treatment-using cases, 76.5% received a diagnosis before 18 years of age and 57.5% before 15 years of age. Among cases receiving intensive mental health services, 77.9% received a diagnosis before 18 years of age and 60.3% before 15 years of age. Adult disorders were generally preceded by their juvenile counterparts (eg, adult anxiety was preceded by juvenile anxiety), but also by different disorders. Specifically, adult anxiety and schizophreniform disorders were preceded by a broad array of juvenile disorders. For all adult disorders, 25% to 60% of cases had a history of conduct and/or oppositional defiant disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Most adult disorders should be reframed as extensions of juvenile disorders. In particular, juvenile conduct disorder is a priority prevention target for reducing psychiatric disorder in the adult population.

Much as been written about Harry Harlow’s controversial use of rhesus macaques as experimental subjects in his research on mother-infant bonds. On August 31, 1958, Harlow presented the results of his work in his presidential address at the Sixty-sixth Annual Convention of the American Psychological Association in Washington, D. C. This talk was later published as a paper in the American Psychologist. This chapter is an excerpt from that paper and presents a fascinating perspective into Harlow’s views on human-macaque relations, animal sentience and ‘the nature of love’.

Contents: Foreword. Preface. Competing Meta-Models: The Medical Model Versus the Contextual Model. Differential Hypotheses and Evidentiary Rules. Absolute Efficacy: The Benefits of Psychotherapy Established by Meta-Analysis. Relative Efficacy: The Dodo Bird Was Smarter Than We Have Been Led to Believe. Specific Effects: Weak Empirical Evidence That Benefits of Psychotherapy Are Derived From Specific Ingredients. General Effects: The Alliance as a Case in Point. Allegiance and Adherence: Further Evidence for the Contextual Model. Therapist Effects: An Ignored but Critical Factor. Implications of Rejecting the Medical Model.

Emotion is normally regulated in the human brain by a complex circuit consisting of the orbital frontal cortex, amygdala, anterior cingulate cortex, and several other interconnected regions. There are both genetic and environmental contributions to the structure and function of this circuitry. We posit that impulsive aggression and violence arise as a consequence of faulty emotion regulation. Indeed, the prefrontal cortex receives a major serotonergic projection, which is dysfunctional in individuals who show impulsive violence. Individuals vulnerable to faulty regulation of negative emotion are at risk for violence and aggression. Research on the neural circuitry of emotion regulation suggests new avenues of intervention for such at-risk populations.

Whole-plant energy capture depends not only on the photosynthetic response of individual leaves, but also on their integration into an effective canopy, and on the costs of producing and maintaining their photosynthetic capacity. This paper explores adaptation to irradiance level in this context, focusing on traits whose significance would be elusive if considered in terms of their impact at the leaf level alone. I review traditional approaches used to demonstrate or suggest adaptation to irradiance level, and outline three energetic tradeoffs likely to shape such adaptation, involving the economics of gas exchange, support, and biotic interactions. Recent models using these tradeoffs to account for trends in leaf nitrogen content, stornatal conductance, phyllotaxis, and defensive allocations in sun v. shade are evaluated. A re-evaluation of the classic study of acclimation of the photosynthetic light response in Atriplex, crucial to interpreting adaptation to irradiance in many traits, shows that it does not completely support the central dogma of adaptation to sun v. shade unless the results are analysed in terms of whole-plant energy capture. Calculations for Liriodendron show that the traditional light compensation point has little meaning for net carbon gain, and that the effective compensation point is profoundly influenced by the costs of night leaf respiration, leaf construction, and the construction of associated support and root tissue. The costs of support tissue are especially important, raising the effective compensation point by 140 µmol m-2 s-1 in trees 1 m tall, and by nearly 1350 µmol m-2 s-1 in trees 30 m tall. Effective compensation points give maximum tree heights as a function of irradiance, and shade tolerance as a function of tree height; calculations of maximum permissible height in Liriodendron correspond roughly with the height of the tallest known individual. Finally, new models for the evolution of canopy width/height ratio in response to irradiance and coverage within a tree stratum, and for the evolution of mottled leaves as a defensive measure in understory herbs, are outlined.