World Climate Research Programme

Abstract An ensemble of regional climate simulations is analyzed to evaluate the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble average to simulate precipitation over Africa. All RCMs use a similar domain and spatial resolution of ~50 km and are driven by the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) (1989–2008). They constitute the first set of simulations in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in Africa (CORDEX-Africa) project. Simulated precipitation is evaluated at a range of time scales, including seasonal means, and annual and diurnal cycles, against a number of detailed observational datasets. All RCMs simulate the seasonal mean and annual cycle quite accurately, although individual models can exhibit significant biases in some subregions and seasons. The multimodel average generally outperforms any individual simulation, showing biases of similar magnitude to differences across a number of observational datasets. Moreover, many of the RCMs significantly improve the precipitation climate compared to that from their boundary condition dataset, that is, ERA-Interim. A common problem in the majority of the RCMs is that precipitation is triggered too early during the diurnal cycle, although a small subset of models does have a reasonable representation of the phase of the diurnal cycle. The systematic bias in the diurnal cycle is not improved when the ensemble mean is considered. Based on this performance analysis, it is assessed that the present set of RCMs can be used to provide useful information on climate projections over Africa.

Abstract. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the “hiatus”, volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society.

Abstract Public expectations have been set for the development of skillful meteorological forecasts of unprecedented leads out to a month or two, filling the so-called subseasonal to seasonal prediction gap. While both the weather and climate communities, coordinated internationally by the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), respectively, can contribute to address this challenge, neither of them can effectively meet the challenge alone. The WWRP/WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project and related initiatives such as the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Program S2S Prediction Task Force are providing a framework for needed weather–climate community interactions. Such joint weather–climate efforts need to be sustained in the future for continued progress in subseasonal to seasonal prediction.

More than 300 scientists, all interested in regional climate, came together at Stockholm University, in Sweden, on 17–20 May 2016 for the Third International Conference on Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Out of over 460 abstracts submitted to the conference, 89 oral presentations and 306 posters were presented during three conference days. The aim of the conference was primarily to bring together the international regional climate research community, focusing on high-resolution climate information and its applications to vulnerability, impacts and adaptation, and the full spectrum of potential end users of regional climate information. The conference also offered a platform for further capacity development, training and knowledge exchange for developing-nation scientists, and an opportunity to expand existing or build new collaborations. In addition, the conference had an intention of demonstrating successes, both broadly across the discipline and through case studies (CORDEX in Action), and of facilitating cross-region collaboration around CORDEX Science Challenges, with the potential for keynote speakers to address more thoroughly one of the Challenges. The conference also focused on the future of CORDEX, where discussion and development of plans including Flagship Pilot Studies, scientific challenges, and Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations were key issues.

Abstract The exigencies of the global community toward Earth system science will increase in the future as the human population, economies, and the human footprint on the planet continue to grow. This growth, combined with intensifying urbanization, will inevitably exert increasing pressure on all ecosystem services. A unified interdisciplinary approach to Earth system science is required that can address this challenge, integrate technical demands and long-term visions, and reconcile user demands with scientific feasibility. Together with the research arms of the World Meteorological Organization, the Young Earth System Scientists community has gathered early-career scientists from around the world to initiate a discussion about frontiers of Earth system science. To provide optimal information for society, Earth system science has to provide a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes that drive the Earth system and anthropogenic influences. This understanding will be reflected in seamless prediction systems for environmental processes that are robust and instructive to local users on all scales. Such prediction systems require improved physical process understanding, more high-resolution global observations, and advanced modeling capability, as well as high-performance computing on unprecedented scales. At the same time, the robustness and usability of such prediction systems also depend on deepening our understanding of the entire Earth system and improved communication between end users and researchers. Earth system science is the fundamental baseline for understanding the Earth’s capacity to accommodate humanity, and it provides a means to have a rational discussion about the consequences and limits of anthropogenic influence on Earth. Without its progress, truly sustainable development will be impossible.

6th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models What: Scientists, ranging from early career to highly experienced, involved in the development of weather and climate models and in the diagnosis of model errors, held an international workshop to discuss the nature, causes and remedies of systematic errors across timescales and across Earth system modeling components. When: 31 Oct - 04 Nov 2022 Where: Reading, UK and online

In 2017, the United Nations proclaimed a Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (hereafter referred to as the UN Ocean Decade) from 2021 until 2030 to support efforts to reverse the cycle of decline in ocean health. To achieve this ambitious goal, this initiative aims to gather ocean stakeholders worldwide behind a common framework that will ensure ocean science can fully support countries in creating improved conditions for sustainable development of the world’s oceans. The initiative strives to strengthen the international cooperation needed to develop the scientific research and innovative technologies that can connect ocean science with the needs of society at the global scale. Based on the recommendations in the Implementation Plan of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (Version 2.0, July 2021), the Southern Ocean community engaged in a stakeholder- oriented process to develop the Southern Ocean Action Plan. The Southern Ocean process engaged a broad community, which includes the scientific research community, the business and industry sector, and governance and management bodies. As part of this global effort, the Southern Ocean Task Force identified the needs of the Southern Ocean community to address the challenges related to the unique environmental characteristics and governance structure of the Southern Ocean. Through this community-driven process, we identified synergies within the Southern Ocean community and beyond in order to elaborate an Action Plan that provides a framework for Southern Ocean stakeholders to formulate and develop tangible actions and deliverables that support the UN Ocean Decade vision. Through the publication of this Action Plan, the Southern Ocean Task Force aims to mobilise the Southern<br> Ocean community and inspire all stakeholders to seek engagement and leverage opportunities to deliver innovative solutions that maintain and foster the unique conditions of the Southern Ocean. This framework provides an initial roadmap to strengthen links between science, industry and policy, as well as to encourage internationally collaborative activities in order to address existing gaps in our knowledge and data coverage.

Abstract Global climate change is often thought of as a steady and approximately predictable physical response to increasing forcings, which then requires commensurate adaptation. But adaptation has practical, cultural and biological limits, and climate change may pose unanticipated global hazards, sudden changes or other surprises–as may societal adaptation and mitigation responses. These poorly known factors could substantially affect the urgency of mitigation as well as adaptation decisions. We outline a strategy for better accommodating these challenges by making climate science more integrative, in order to identify and quantify known and novel physical risks including those arising from interactions with ecosystems and society. We need to do this even–or especially–when they are highly uncertain, and to explore risks and opportunities associated with mitigation and adaptation responses by engaging across disciplines. We argue that upcoming climate assessments need to be more risk‐aware, and suggest ways of achieving this. These strategies improve the chances of anticipating potential surprises and identifying and communicating “safe landing” pathways that meet UN Sustainable Development Goals and guide humanity toward a better future.

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

Abstract There is a diverging perception of climate tipping points, abrupt changes and surprises in the scientific community and the public. While such dynamics have been observed in the past, e.g., frequent reductions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last ice age, or ice sheet collapses, tipping points might also be a possibility in an anthropogenically perturbed climate. In this context, high impact—low likelihood events, both in the physical realm as well as in ecosystems, will be potentially dangerous. Here we argue that a formalized assessment of the state of science is needed in order to establish a consensus on this issue and to reconcile diverging views. This has been the approach taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since 1990, the IPCC has consistently generated robust consensus on several complex issues, ranging from the detection and attribution of climate change, the global carbon budget and climate sensitivity, to the projection of extreme events and their impact. Here, we suggest that a scientific assessment on tipping points, conducted collaboratively by the IPCC and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, would represent an ambitious yet necessary goal to be accomplished within the next decade.

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Michael G. Bosilovich, Earth Sciences Division, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Code 610.1, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, E-mail: michael.bosilovich@nasa.gov

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are the main driver of climate change, with global warming increasing almost linearly with cumulative CO 2 emissions. Hence, future warming will primarily result from future emissions of CO 2 with contributions from other greenhouse gases (mostly CH 4 and N 2 O) and aerosols. Climate projections of the 21st century, such as those assessed by the IPCC, are provided from comprehensive climate models, also called Earth System models, driven by scenarios of the 21st century evolution of emissions from those climate forcers. While it seems now inevitable that the world will reach 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the early 2030s, the extent to which we exceed this warming level and how quickly we may be able to reduce temperatures again depends strongly on global activity taken now to limit emissions. In this paper, we review the current understanding on Earth system changes under two highly contrasted possible future worlds. We first focus on high-end scenarios, where anthropogenic emissions continue to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to large warming levels, associated impacts on all components of the Earth System, and increased risks of triggering tipping points. We then assess low-end scenarios, where anthropogenic emissions rapidly decline, reaching net zero and potentially becoming net negative before the end of the 21st century. Such “overshoot” scenarios lead to a peak in global warming followed by a slow decline in global temperature, with some degree of reversibility in the global carbon cycle and key Earth system components. We also review paleoclimatic information relevant to these two contrasting future worlds. Paleoclimate evidence for geo-biosphere interactions shows that stabilizing feedbacks operate on millennial or longer timescales, whereas destabilizing feedbacks and tipping cascades occurred also on shorter timescales.

Abstract We present a summary report of the CLIVAR Early Career Scientists Symposium, a three-day event associated with the CLIVAR Open Science Conference held in Qingdao, China during September 2016. The Symposium aimed to capture the ideas of early career researchers on pressing science priorities, imminent challenges, and emerging opportunities to help guide the future evolution of CLIVAR. We identified the need for improving process-based understanding and predictability of regional climate variability and change, moving toward seamless predictions, and improving and expanding global observations. We emphasize the need for increasingly open science, including universal access to data, code, and publications as well as opportunities for international cooperation and exchange. As the next generation of climate scientists, we are dedicated to overcome the challenges outlined in this summary and are looking forward to advancing CLIVAR’s mission and activities.

Climate, the statistical description of weather including the probabilities for anomalies, changes continuously, since both the interaction among the climate system components (atmosphere, ocean, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere) and the irradiance of the sun vary on all timescales up to billions of years. On timescales which are of most interest for mankind, i.e. up to centuries, major factors causing climate variability are: changing composition of the atmosphere; spectral solar irradiance variations; systematic changes of ocean–atmosphere–land interaction, if resulting in major changes of ocean circulation; volcanic eruptions injecting mass into the low latitude stratosphere (>20 km height); and land cover change modifying the surface energy budget. Two of these influencing factors are now largely anthropogenic, namely changing atmospheric conditions and land cover change. Thus, the climate discussion has become to a large extent one about anthropogenic influence. At different periods, different influencing factors have been more important or dominant. Since the complex interactions are only partly understood, it is difficult to attribute observed climate parameter changes or trends to particular causes. In this brief status report on global climate change, present knowledge is reviewed, mainly based on the second full assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The authors have tackled the challenging task of leading the reader from elementary geophysics to numerical climate impact studies in six easy lessons, complete with reference to three desk‐top computer programs for geophysical fluid models that can be acquired at an affordable price. As a result, they have produced a quickly moving text that provides a far‐ranging overview of a vast and rapidly advancing field in Earth system sciences.

Abstract Mediterranean is thought to be sensitive to global climate change, but its future interdecadal variability is uncertain for many climate models. A study was made of the variability of the winter temperature over the Mediterranean Sub-regional Area (MSA), employing a reconstructed temperature series covering the period 1698 to 2010. This paper describes the transformed winter temperature data performed via Empirical Mode Decomposition for the purposes of noise reduction and statistical modeling. This emerging approach is discussed to account for the internal dependence structure of natural climate variability.

Abstract not Available.

Mediterranean is thought to be sensitive to global climate change, but its future interdecadal variability is uncertain for many climate models. A study was made of the variability of the winter temperature over the Mediterranean Sub-regional Area (MSA), employing a reconstructed temperature series covering the period 1698 to 2010. This paper describes the transformed winter temperature data performed via Empirical Mode Decomposition for the purposes of noise reduction and statistical modeling. This emerging approach is discussed to account for the internal dependence structure of natural climate variability.

Climate change has largely become a synonym for unsustainable behaviour of mankind, although there must be climate change without any human interference, because the strongly differing time-scales of climate system components like atmosphere, ocean, vegetation, land-ice, and distribution of continents provoke changes in mean values and statistics of deviations from these means on all time-scales longer than the slowest component’ s turn around time (hundreds of millions of years for continents). The problem to be discussed is therefore only the difference in the rate of change between anthropogenic and natural climate change, including the effects of interactions between both and accounting for the strong climate variability on time-scales of interest for the society.

Abstract. Quality data remain elusive while data access freedoms disappear. Serious mis-matches between data availability and human need should attract societal attention.