World Meteorological Organization

Over the past decade it has become apparent that the atmosphere is a significant pathway for the transport of many natural and pollutant materials from the continents to the ocean. The atmospheric input of many of these species can have an impact (either positive or negative) on biological processes in the sea and on marine chemical cycling. For example, there is now evidence that the atmosphere may be an important transport path for such essential nutrients as iron and nitrogen in some regions. In this report we assess current data in this area, develop global scale estimates of the atmospheric fluxes of trace elements, mineral aerosol, nitrogen species, and synthetic organic compounds to the ocean; and compare the atmospheric input rates of these substances to their input via rivers. Trace elements considered were Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu, Ni, As, Hg, Sn, Al, Fe, Si, and P. Oxidized and reduced forms of nitrogen were considered, including nitrate and ammonium ions and the gaseous species NO, NO 2 , HNO 3 , and NH 3 . Synthetic organic compounds considered included polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), DDTs, chlordane, dieldrin, and hexachlorobenzenes (HCBs). Making this assessment was difficult because there are very few actual measurements of deposition rates of these substances to the ocean. However, there are considerably more data on the atmospheric concentrations of these species in aerosol and gaseous form. Mean concentration data for 10° × 10° ocean areas were determined from the available concentration data or from extrapolation of these data into other regions. These concentration distributions were then combined with appropriate exchange coefficients and precipitation fields to obtain the global wet and dry deposition fluxes. Careful consideration was given to atmospheric transport processes as well as to removal mechanisms and the physical and physicochemical properties of aerosols and gases. Only annual values were calculated. On a global scale atmospheric inputs are generally equal to or greater than riverine inputs, and for most species atmospheric input to the ocean is significantly greater in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. For dissolved trace metals in seawater, global atmospheric input dominates riverine input for Pb, Cd, and Zn, and the two transport paths are roughly equal for Cu, Ni, As, and Fe. Fluxes and basin‐wide deposition of trace metals are generally a factor of 5‐10 higher in the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions than in the South Atlantic and South Pacific. Global input of oxidized and reduced nitrogen species are roughly equal to each other, although the major fraction of oxidized nitrogen enters the ocean in the northern hemisphere, primarily as a result of pollution sources. Reduced nitrogen species are much more uniformly distributed, suggesting that the ocean itself may be a significant source. The global atmospheric input of such synthetic organic species as HCH,PCBs, DDT, and HCB completely dominates their input via rivers.

Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone–climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

Increasing quantities of atmospheric anthropogenic fixed nitrogen entering the open ocean could account for up to about a third of the ocean's external (nonrecycled) nitrogen supply and up to approximately 3% of the annual new marine biological production, approximately 0.3 petagram of carbon per year. This input could account for the production of up to approximately 1.6 teragrams of nitrous oxide (N2O) per year. Although approximately 10% of the ocean's drawdown of atmospheric anthropogenic carbon dioxide may result from this atmospheric nitrogen fertilization, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing, up to about two-thirds of this amount may be offset by the increase in N2O emissions. The effects of increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition are expected to continue to grow in the future.

Abstract Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the subseasonal to seasonal time range, the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing subseasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts (up to 15 days). The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the subseasonal to seasonal time range that has been considered for a long time as a “desert of predictability.” In particular, this database will help identify common successes and shortcomings in the model simulation and prediction of sources of subseasonal to seasonal predictability. For instance, a preliminary study suggests that the S2S models significantly underestimate the amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The S2S database also represents an important tool for case studies of extreme events. For instance, a multimodel combination of S2S models displays higher probability of a landfall over the islands of Vanuatu 2–3 weeks before Tropical Cyclone Pam devastated the islands in March 2015.

Climate research, monitoring, prediction, and related services rely on accurate observations of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, adequately sampled globally and over sufficiently long time periods. The Global Climate Observing System, set up under the auspices of United Nations organizations and the International Council for Science to help ensure the availability of systematic observations of climate, developed the concept of essential climate variables (ECVs). ECV data records are intended to provide reliable, traceable, observation-based evidence for a range of applications, including monitoring, mitigating, adapting to, and attributing climate changes, as well as the empirical basis required to understand past, current, and possible future climate variability. The ECV concept has been broadly adopted worldwide as the guiding basis for observing climate, including by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), WMO, and space agencies operating Earth observation satellites. This paper describes the rationale for these ECVs and their current selection, based on the principles of feasibility, relevance, and cost effectiveness. It also provides a view of how the ECV concept could evolve as a guide for rational and evidence-based monitoring of climate and environment. Selected examples are discussed to highlight the benefits, limitations, and future evolution of this approach. The article is intended to assist program managers to set priorities for climate observation, dataset generation and related research: for instance, within the emerging Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). It also helps the observation community and individual researchers to contribute to systematic climate observation, by promoting understanding of ECV choices and the opportunities to influence their evolution.

A global assessment of precipitation chemistry and deposition has been carried out under the direction of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Scientific Advisory Group for Precipitation Chemistry (SAG-PC). The assessment addressed three questions: (1) what do measurements and model estimates of precipitation chemistry and wet, dry and total deposition of sulfur, nitrogen, sea salt, base cations, organic acids, acidity, and phosphorus show globally and regionally? (2) has the wet deposition of major ions changed since 2000 (and, where information and data are available, since 1990) and (3) what are the major gaps and uncertainties in our knowledge? To that end, regionally-representative measurements for two 3-year-averaging periods, 2000–2002 and 2005–2007, were compiled worldwide. Data from the 2000–2002 averaging period were combined with 2001 ensemble-mean modeling results from 21 global chemical transport models produced in Phase 1 of the Coordinated Model Studies Activities of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP). The measurement data and modeling results were used to generate global and regional maps of major ion concentrations in precipitation and deposition. A major product of the assessment is a database of quality assured ion concentration and wet deposition data gathered from regional and national monitoring networks. The database is available for download from the World Data Centre for Precipitation Chemistry (http://wdcpc.org/). The assessment concludes that global concentrations and deposition of sulfur and nitrogen are reasonably well characterized with levels generally highest near emission sources and more than an order of magnitude lower in areas largely free of anthropogenic influences. In many parts of the world, wet deposition of reduced nitrogen exceeds that of oxidized nitrogen and is increasing. Sulfur and nitrogen concentrations and deposition in North America and Europe have declined significantly in line with emission reduction policies. Major regions of the world, including South America, the more remote areas of North America, much of Asia, Africa, Oceania, polar regions, and all of the oceans, are inadequately sampled for all of the major ions in wet and dry deposition, and particularly so for phosphorus, organic forms of nitrogen, and weak acids including carbonates and organic acids. Measurement-based inferential estimates of dry deposition are limited to sulfur and some nitrogen in only a few regions of the world and methods are highly uncertain. The assessment concludes with recommendations to address major gaps and uncertainties in global ion concentration and deposition measurements.

This paper demonstrates the potential of combining observed river discharge information with climate‐driven water balance model (WBM) outputs to develop composite runoff fields. Such combined runoff fields simultaneously reflect the numerical accuracy of the discharge measurements and preserve the spatial and temporal distribution of simulated runoff. Selected gauging stations from the World Meteorological Organization Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) data archive were geographically coregistered to a gridded simulated topological network at 30′ (longitude × latitude) spatial resolution (STN–30p). Interstation regions between gauging stations along the STN–30p network were identified, and annual interstation runoff was calculated. The annual interstation runoff was compared with outputs from WBM calculations, which were performed using long‐term mean monthly climate forcings (air temperature and precipitation). The simulated runoff for each cell was multiplied by the ratio of observed to simulated runoff of the corresponding interstation region from the GRDC data set to create spatially distributed runoff fields at 30′ resolution. The resulting composite runoff fields (UNH/GRDC Composite Runoff Fields V1.0) are released to the scientific community along with intermediate data sets, such as station attributes and long‐term monthly regimes of the selected gauging stations, the simulated topological network (STN–30p), STN–30p derived attributes for the selected stations, and gridded fields of the interstation regions along STN–30p. These data sets represent high‐resolution fields that are of value to a broad range of water‐related research, including terrestrial modeling, climate‐atmosphere interactions, and global water resource assessments.

Abstract. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) is a synthesis of quality-controlled fCO2 (fugacity of carbon dioxide) values for the global surface oceans and coastal seas with regular updates. Version 3 of SOCAT has 14.7 million fCO2 values from 3646 data sets covering the years 1957 to 2014. This latest version has an additional 4.6 million fCO2 values relative to version 2 and extends the record from 2011 to 2014. Version 3 also significantly increases the data availability for 2005 to 2013. SOCAT has an average of approximately 1.2 million surface water fCO2 values per year for the years 2006 to 2012. Quality and documentation of the data has improved. A new feature is the data set quality control (QC) flag of E for data from alternative sensors and platforms. The accuracy of surface water fCO2 has been defined for all data set QC flags. Automated range checking has been carried out for all data sets during their upload into SOCAT. The upgrade of the interactive Data Set Viewer (previously known as the Cruise Data Viewer) allows better interrogation of the SOCAT data collection and rapid creation of high-quality figures for scientific presentations. Automated data upload has been launched for version 4 and will enable more frequent SOCAT releases in the future. High-profile scientific applications of SOCAT include quantification of the ocean sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and its long-term variation, detection of ocean acidification, as well as evaluation of coupled-climate and ocean-only biogeochemical models. Users of SOCAT data products are urged to acknowledge the contribution of data providers, as stated in the SOCAT Fair Data Use Statement. This ESSD (Earth System Science Data) "living data" publication documents the methods and data sets used for the assembly of this new version of the SOCAT data collection and compares these with those used for earlier versions of the data collection (Pfeil et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2013; Bakker et al., 2014). Individual data set files, included in the synthesis product, can be downloaded here: doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849770. The gridded products are available here: doi:10.3334/CDIAC/OTG.SOCAT_V3_GRID.

This report summarizes the findings and recommendations from the Expert Meeting on New Scenarios held in Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 19-21 September 2007. It is the culmination of the combined efforts of the New Scenarios Steering Committee, an author team composed primarily of members of the research community, and numerous other meeting participants and external reviewers who provided extensive comments during the expert review process

Recent findings, based on both ground-based and satellite measurements, have established that there has been an apparent downward trend in the total column amount of ozone over mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere in all seasons. Measurements of the altitude profile of the change in the ozone concentration have established that decreases are taking place in the lower stratosphere in the region of highest ozone concentration. Analysis of updated ozone records, through March of 1991, including 29 stations in the former Soviet Union, and analysis of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment instruments confirm many of the findings originally derived from the Dobson record concerning northern midlatitude changes in ozone. The data from many instruments now provide a fairly consistent picture of the change that has occurred in stratospheric ozone levels.

Abstract The World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) is an international community-based initiative to acquire and disseminate climate relevant data on the physical geographies of cities for modeling and analysis purposes. The current lacuna of globally consistent information on cities is a major impediment to urban climate science toward informing and developing climate mitigation and adaptation strategies at urban scales. WUDAPT consists of a database and a portal system; its database is structured into a hierarchy representing different levels of detail, and the data are acquired using innovative protocols that utilize crowdsourcing approaches, Geowiki tools, freely accessible data, and building typology archetypes. The base level of information (L0) consists of local climate zone (LCZ) maps of cities; each LCZ category is associated with a range of values for model-relevant surface descriptors (roughness, impervious surface cover, roof area, building heights, etc.). Levels 1 (L1) and 2 (L2) will provide specific intra-urban values for other relevant descriptors at greater precision, such as data morphological forms, material composition data, and energy usage. This article describes the status of the WUDAPT project and demonstrates its potential value using observations and models. As a community-based project, other researchers are encouraged to participate to help create a global urban database of value to urban climate scientists.

Abstract. The COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) is a diagnostic model intercomparison project (MIP) in CMIP6. CORDEX builds on a foundation of previous downscaling intercomparison projects to provide a common framework for downscaling activities around the world. The CORDEX Regional Challenges provide a focus for downscaling research and a basis for making use of CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) output to produce downscaled projected changes in regional climates and assess sources of uncertainties in the projections, all of which can potentially be distilled into climate change information for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation studies. CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies advance regional downscaling by targeting one or more of the CORDEX Regional Challenges. A CORDEX-CORE framework is planned that will produce a baseline set of homogeneous high-resolution, downscaled projections for regions worldwide. In CMIP6, CORDEX coordinates with ScenarioMIP and is structured to allow cross comparisons with HighResMIP and interaction with the CMIP6 VIACS Advisory Board.

Inclusion of mineral dust radiative effects could lead to a significant improvement in the radiation balance of numerical weather prediction models with subsequent improvements in the weather forecast itself. In this study the radiative effects of mineral dust have been fully incorporated into a regional atmospheric dust model. Dust affects the radiative fluxes at the surface and the top of the atmosphere and the temperature profiles at every model time step when the radiation module is processed. These changes influence the atmospheric dynamics, moisture physics, and near‐surface conditions. Furthermore, dust emission is modified by changes in friction velocity and turbulent exchange coefficients; dust turbulent mixing, transport, and deposition are altered by changes in atmospheric stability, precipitation conditions, and free‐atmosphere winds. A major dust outbreak with dust optical depths reaching 3.5 at 550 nm over the Mediterranean region on April 2002 is selected to assess the radiative dust effects on the atmosphere at a regional level. A strong dust negative feedback upon dust emission (35–45% reduction of the AOD) resulted from the smaller outgoing sensible turbulent heat flux decreasing the turbulent momentum transfer from the atmosphere and consequently dust emission. Significant improvements of the atmospheric temperature and mean sea‐level pressure forecasts are obtained over dust‐affected areas by considerably reducing both warm and cold temperature biases existing in the model without dust‐radiation interactions. This study demonstrates that the use of the proposed model with integrated dust and atmospheric radiation represents a promising approach for further improvements in numerical weather prediction practice and radiative impact assessment over dust‐affected areas.

More than 130 observation days of the horizontal and vertical extent of Saharan dust intrusions over Europe during the period May 2000 to December 2002 were studied by means of a coordinated lidar network in the frame of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET). The number of dust events was greatest in late spring, summer, and early autumn periods, mainly in southern (S) and southeastern (SE) Europe. Multiple aerosol dust layers of variable thickness (300–7500 m) were observed. The center of mass of these layers was located in altitudes between 850 and 8000 m. However, the mean thickness of the dust layer typically stayed around 1500–3400 m and the corresponding mean center of mass ranged from 2500 to 6000 m. In exceptional cases, dust aerosols reached northwestern (NW), northern (N), or northeastern (NE) Europe, penetrating the geographical area located between 4°W–28°E (longitude) and 38°N–58°N (latitude). Mean aerosol optical depths (AOD), extinction‐to‐backscatter ratios (lidar ratios, LR), and linear depolarization ratios of desert aerosols ranged from 0.1 to 0.25 at the wavelength of 355 or 351 nm, 30 to 80 sr at 355 or 351 nm, and 10 to 25% at 532 nm, respectively, within the lofted dust plumes. In these plumes typical Saharan dust backscatter coefficients ranged from 0.5 to 2 Mm −1 sr −1 . Southern European stations presented higher variability of the LR values and the backscatter‐related Ångström exponent values (BRAE) (LR: 20–100 sr; BRAE: −0.5 to 3) than northern ones (LR: 30–80 sr; BRAE: −0.5 to 1).

Abstract The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.

A size‐segregated multicomponent aerosol algorithm, the Canadian Aerosol Module (CAM), was developed for use with climate and air quality models. It includes major aerosol processes in the atmosphere: generation, hygroscopic growth, coagulation, nucleation, condensation, dry deposition/sedimentation, below‐cloud scavenging, aerosol activation, a cloud module with explicit microphysical processes to treat aerosol‐cloud interactions and chemical transformation of sulphur species in clear air and in clouds. The numerical solution was optimized to efficiently solve the complicated size‐segregated multicomponent aerosol system and make it feasible to be included in global and regional models. An internal mixture is assumed for all types of aerosols except for soil dust and black carbon which are assumed to be externally mixed close to sources. To test the algorithm, emissions to the atmosphere of anthropogenic and natural aerosols are simulated for two aerosol types: sea salt and sulphate. A comparison was made of two numerical solutions of the aerosol algorithm: process splitting and ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver. It was found that the process‐splitting method used for this model is within 15% of the more accurate ODE solution for the total sulphate mass concentration and <1% accurate for sea‐salt concentration. Furthermore, it is computationally more than 100 times faster. The sensitivity of the simulated size distributions to the number of size bins was also investigated. The diffusional behavior of each individual process was quantitatively characterized by the difference in the mode radius and standard deviation of a lognormal curve fit of distributions between the approximate solution and the 96‐bin reference solution. Both the number and mass size distributions were adequately predicted by a sectional model of 12 bins in many situations in the atmosphere where the sink for condensable matter on existing aerosol surface area is high enough that nucleation of new particles is negligible. Total mass concentration was adequately simulated using lower size resolution of 8 bins. However, to properly resolve nucleation mode size distributions and minimize the numerical diffusion, a sectional model of 18 size bins or greater is needed. The number of size bins is more important in resolving the nucleation mode peaks than in reducing the diffusional behavior of aerosol processes. Application of CAM in a study of the global cycling of sea‐salt mass accompanies this paper [ Gong et al. , 2002 ].

Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model‐to‐model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHG‐induced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lower‐stratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cl y ) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cl y , with the October mean Antarctic Cl y peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cl y returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cl y near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values and before the Antarctic. None of the CCMs predict future large decreases in the Arctic column ozone. By 2100, total column ozone is projected to be substantially above 1980 values in all regions except in the tropics.

Abstract. The Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) is an international global network of more than 90 stations making high-quality measurements of atmospheric composition that began official operations in 1991 after 5 years of planning. Apart from sonde measurements, all measurements in the network are performed by ground-based remote-sensing techniques. Originally named the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), the name of the network was changed to NDACC in 2005 to better reflect the expanded scope of its measurements. The primary goal of NDACC is to establish long-term databases for detecting changes and trends in the chemical and physical state of the atmosphere (mesosphere, stratosphere, and troposphere) and to assess the coupling of such changes with climate and air quality. NDACC's origins, station locations, organizational structure, and data archiving are described. NDACC is structured around categories of ground-based observational techniques (sonde, lidar, microwave radiometers, Fourier-transform infrared, UV-visible DOAS (differential optical absorption spectroscopy)-type, and Dobson–Brewer spectrometers, as well as spectral UV radiometers), timely cross-cutting themes (ozone, water vapour, measurement strategies, cross-network data integration), satellite measurement systems, and theory and analyses. Participation in NDACC requires compliance with strict measurement and data protocols to ensure that the network data are of high and consistent quality. To widen its scope, NDACC has established formal collaborative agreements with eight other cooperating networks and Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). A brief history is provided, major accomplishments of NDACC during its first 25 years of operation are reviewed, and a forward-looking perspective is presented.

Abstract A workshop was held in Casablanca, Morocco, in March 2012, to enhance knowledge of climate extremes and their changes in the Arab region. This workshop initiated intensive data compilation activities of daily observational weather station data from the Arab region. After conducting careful control processes to ensure the quality and homogeneity of the data, climate indices for extreme temperatures and precipitation were calculated. This study examines the temporal changes in climate extremes in the Arab region with regard to long‐term trends and natural variability related to ENSO and NAO . We find consistent warming trends since the middle of the 20th Century across the region. This is evident in the increased frequencies of warm days and warm nights, higher extreme temperature values, fewer cold days and cold nights and shorter cold spell durations. The warming trends seem to be particularly strong since the early 1970s. Changes in precipitation are generally less consistent and characterised by a higher spatial and temporal variability; the trends are generally less significant. However, in the western part of the Arab region, there is a tendency towards wetter conditions. In contrast, in the eastern part, there are more drying trends, although, these are of low significance. We also find some relationships between climate extremes in the Arab region and certain prominent modes of variability, in particular El Niño‐Southern Oscillation ( ENSO ) and North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO ). The relationships of the climate extremes with NAO are stronger, in general, than those with ENSO , and are particularly strong in the western part of the Arab region (closer to the Atlantic Ocean). The relationships with ENSO are found to be more significant towards the eastern part of the area of study. © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society

Abstract. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere which is driving global warming. This Earth energy imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming ocean, atmosphere and land; rising surface temperature; sea level; and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory and presents an updated assessment of ocean warming estimates as well as new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960–2018. The study obtains a consistent long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018, with a total heat gain of 358±37 ZJ, which is equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47±0.1 W m−2. Over the period 1971–2018 (2010–2018), the majority of heat gain is reported for the global ocean with 89 % (90 %), with 52 % for both periods in the upper 700 m depth, 28 % (30 %) for the 700–2000 m depth layer and 9 % (8 %) below 2000 m depth. Heat gain over land amounts to 6 % (5 %) over these periods, 4 % (3 %) is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and 1 % (2 %) is available for atmospheric warming. Our results also show that EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: the EEI amounts to 0.87±0.12 W m−2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth's system quasi-equilibrium. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would need to be reduced from 410 to 353 ppm to increase heat radiation to space by 0.87 W m−2, bringing Earth back towards energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on best available science. Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in this study. This Earth heat inventory is published at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ, https://www.dkrz.de/, last access: 7 August 2020) under the DOI https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/GCOS_EHI_EXP_v2 (von Schuckmann et al., 2020).