World Wide Fund for Nature

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

Free-flowing rivers (FFRs) support diverse, complex and dynamic ecosystems globally, providing important societal and economic services. Infrastructure development threatens the ecosystem processes, biodiversity and services that these rivers support. Here we assess the connectivity status of 12 million kilometres of rivers globally and identify those that remain free-flowing in their entire length. Only 37 per cent of rivers longer than 1,000 kilometres remain free-flowing over their entire length and 23 per cent flow uninterrupted to the ocean. Very long FFRs are largely restricted to remote regions of the Arctic and of the Amazon and Congo basins. In densely populated areas only few very long rivers remain free-flowing, such as the Irrawaddy and Salween. Dams and reservoirs and their up- and downstream propagation of fragmentation and flow regulation are the leading contributors to the loss of river connectivity. By applying a new method to quantify riverine connectivity and map FFRs, we provide a foundation for concerted global and national strategies to maintain or restore them.

An essential foundation of any science is a standard lexicon. Any given conservation project can be described in terms of the biodiversity targets, direct threats, contributing factors at the project site, and the conservation actions that the project team is employing to change the situation. These common elements can be linked in a causal chain, which represents a theory of change about how the conservation actions are intended to bring about desired project outcomes. If project teams want to describe and share their work and learn from one another, they need a standard and precise lexicon to specifically describe each node along this chain. To date, there have been several independent efforts to develop standard classifications for the direct threats that affect biodiversity and the conservation actions required to counteract these threats. Recognizing that it is far more effective to have only one accepted global scheme, we merged these separate efforts into unified classifications of threats and actions, which we present here. Each classification is a hierarchical listing of terms and associated definitions. The classifications are comprehensive and exclusive at the upper levels of the hierarchy, expandable at the lower levels, and simple, consistent, and scalable at all levels. We tested these classifications by applying them post hoc to 1191 threatened bird species and 737 conservation projects. Almost all threats and actions could be assigned to the new classification systems, save for some cases lacking detailed information. Furthermore, the new classification systems provided an improved way of analyzing and comparing information across projects when compared with earlier systems. We believe that widespread adoption of these classifications will help practitioners more systematically identify threats and appropriate actions, managers to more efficiently set priorities and allocate resources, and most important, facilitate cross-project learning and the development of a systematic science of conservation.

This paper focuses on an analysis of planted forests data from the 2015 Forests Resources Assessment of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FRA 2015). It forms one of a series of papers in the FRA 2015 special issue of this journal. While total forest area decreased from 4.28 billion hectares to 3.99 billion hectares from 1990 to 2015, with percent global forest cover dropping from 31.85% to 30.85%, the area of planted forests increased from 167.5 to 277.9 million hectares or 4.06% to 6.95% of total forest area. Increase was most rapid in the temperate zone, and regionally in East Asia, followed by Europe, North America, and Southern and Southeast Asia. However the annualised rate of increase in area of planted forests slowed in the 2010–2015 period to 1.2%, below the 2.4% rate suggested is needed to supply all of the world’s timber and fibre needs. The majority of planted forests comprised native species with only 18–19% of the total area being of introduced species. Introduced species were dominant in the southern hemisphere countries of South America, Oceania and Eastern and Southern Africa where industrial forestry is dominant. Twenty countries accounted for 85% of planted forest area and a different 20 countries for 87% of planted forest roundwood supply. As with forest area, roundwood supply from planted forests also showed an increasing trend although this was based on minimal data. There was a mismatch in composition and rankings of the top 20 countries with top forest area and roundwood production suggesting that there are substantial opportunities to increase roundwood production in the future, especially in China which has the largest area but is currently ranked 3rd in roundwood production. Outlook statements were developed for the FAO sub regions based on past changes in planted forest area, population growth, and climate and forest health risks to identify key issues for the future. The overall view from this study suggests that climate impacts, especially from extreme climatic events will affect planted forests in the future and that forest health impacts can also be expected to increase. Outlooks vary regionally. Europe and North America are likely to be most concerned with climate and health risks; Asia will experience population pressure that will impact on land availability for new forests and risks from extreme weather events, and will need to make the most of its existing forests; Africa will need to increase planted forest area to offset continuing deforestation and rapid population growth; and Oceania, the Caribbean, Central and South America are likely to be most concerned with climate impacts. To ensure the continued contribution of planted forests, a number of responses will be required to both maintain existing and also to develop new forests. Intensification of production in existing forests will lessen the need for greater forest areas and offset any land use conflicts related to food security; climate adaptation strategies will need to be developed as a matter of urgency, and forest health focus must remain a priority for research. Establishment of new forests will be eased through greater community and stakeholder engagement. Application of models such as WWF’s New Generation Plantations, which recognises the importance of society and the need to consider the full range of forest products and services within the wider landscape and spectrum of land uses, will be important. We recommend that to enable deeper analysis related to planted forests future FRA Assessments consider ways to better gather data specific to planted forests such as productivity so that this important component of global forests can be better understood.

Abstract Observations show that glaciers around the world are in retreat and losing mass. Internationally coordinated for over a century, glacier monitoring activities provide an unprecedented dataset of glacier observations from ground, air and space. Glacier studies generally select specific parts of these datasets to obtain optimal assessments of the mass-balance data relating to the impact that glaciers exercise on global sea-level fluctuations or on regional runoff. In this study we provide an overview and analysis of the main observational datasets compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). The dataset on glacier front variations (∼42 000 since 1600) delivers clear evidence that centennial glacier retreat is a global phenomenon. Intermittent readvance periods at regional and decadal scale are normally restricted to a subsample of glaciers and have not come close to achieving the maximum positions of the Little Ice Age (or Holocene). Glaciological and geodetic observations (∼5200 since 1850) show that the rates of early 21st-century mass loss are without precedent on a global scale, at least for the time period observed and probably also for recorded history, as indicated also in reconstructions from written and illustrated documents. This strong imbalance implies that glaciers in many regions will very likely suffer further ice loss, even if climate remains stable.

The Living Planet Index was developed to measure the changing state of the world's biodiversity over time. It uses time-series data to calculate average rates of change in a large number of populations of terrestrial, freshwater and marine vertebrate species. The dataset contains about 3000 population time series for over 1100 species. Two methods of calculating the index are outlined: the chain method and a method based on linear modelling of log-transformed data. The dataset is analysed to compare the relative representation of biogeographic realms, ecoregional biomes, threat status and taxonomic groups among species contributing to the index. The two methods show very similar results: terrestrial species declined on average by 25% from 1970 to 2000. Birds and mammals are over-represented in comparison with other vertebrate classes, and temperate species are over-represented compared with tropical species, but there is little difference in representation between threatened and non-threatened species. Some of the problems arising from over-representation are reduced by the way in which the index is calculated. It may be possible to reduce this further by post-stratification and weighting, but new information would first need to be collected for data-poor classes, realms and biomes.

The task of measuring the decline of global biodiversity and instituting changes to halt and reverse this downturn has been taken up in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2010 target. It is an undertaking made more difficult by the complex nature of biodiversity and the consequent difficulty in accurately gauging its depletion. In the Living Planet Index, aggregated population trends among vertebrate species indicate the rate of change in the status of biodiversity, and this index can be used to address the question of whether or not the 2010 target has been achieved. We investigated the use of generalized additive models in aggregating large quantities of population trend data, evaluated potential bias that results from collation of existing trends, and explored the feasibility of disaggregating the data (e.g., geographically, taxonomically, regionally, and by thematic area). Our results show strengths in length and completeness of data, little evidence of bias toward threatened species, and the possibility of disaggregation into meaningful subsets. Limitations of the data set are still apparent, in particular the dominance of bird data and gaps in tropical-species population coverage. Population-trend data complement the longer-term, but more coarse-grained, perspectives gained by evaluating species-level extinction rates. To measure progress toward the 2010 target, indicators must be adapted and strategically supplemented with existing data to generate meaningful indicators in time. Beyond 2010, it is critical a strategy be set out for the future development of indicators that will deal with existing data gaps and that is intricately tied to the goals of future biodiversity targets.

Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.

Demonstrating how practical science can be applied to real-life conservation and development problems, the authors argue that the threats to the natural environment posed by globalisation require an integrated response encompassing different scales, system components, disciplines & knowledge types.

Most people follow and are influenced by some kind of spiritual faith. We examined two ways in which religious faiths can in turn influence biodiversity conservation in protected areas. First, biodiversity conservation is influenced through the direct and often effective protection afforded to wild species in sacred natural sites and in seminatural habitats around religious buildings. Sacred natural sites are almost certainly the world's oldest form of habitat protection. Although some sacred natural sites exist inside official protected areas, many thousands more form a largely unrecognized "shadow" conservation network in many countries throughout the world, which can be more stringently protected than state-run reserves. Second, faiths have a profound impact on attitudes to protection of the natural world through their philosophy, teachings, investment choices, approaches to land they control, and religious-based management systems. We considered the interactions between faiths and protected areas with respect to all 11 mainstream faiths and to a number of local belief systems. The close links between faiths and habitat protection offer major conservation opportunities, but also pose challenges. Bringing a sacred natural site into a national protected-area system can increase protection for the site, but may compromise some of its spiritual values or even its conservation values. Most protected-area managers are not trained to manage natural sites for religious purposes, but many sacred natural sites are under threat from cultural changes and habitat degradation. Decisions about whether or not to make a sacred natural site an "official" protected area therefore need to be made on a case-by-case basis. Such sites can play an important role in conservation inside and outside official protected areas. More information about the conservation value of sacred lands is needed as is more informed experience in integrating these into wider conservation strategies. In addition, many protected-area staff need training in how to manage sensitive issues relating to faiths where important faith sites occur in protected areas.

Overfishing and habitat destruction due to local and global threats are undermining fisheries, biodiversity, and the long-term sustainability of tropical marine ecosystems worldwide, including in the Coral Triangle. Well-designed and effectively managed marine reserve networks can reduce local threats, and contribute to achieving multiple objectives regarding fisheries management, biodiversity conservation and adaptation to changes in climate and ocean chemistry. Previous studies provided advice regarding ecological guidelines for designing marine reserves to achieve one or two of these objectives. While there are many similarities in these guidelines, there are key differences that provide conflicting advice. Thus, there is a need to provide integrated guidelines for practitioners who wish to design marine reserves to achieve all three objectives simultaneously. Scientific advances regarding fish connectivity and recovery rates, and climate and ocean change vulnerability, also necessitate refining advice for marine reserve design. Here we review ecological considerations for marine reserve design, and provide guidelines to achieve all three objectives simultaneously regarding: habitat representation; risk spreading; protecting critical, special and unique areas; reserve size, spacing, location, and duration; protecting climate resilient areas; and minimizing and avoiding threats. In addition to applying ecological guidelines, reserves must be designed to address social and governance considerations, and be integrated within broader fisheries and coastal management regimes.

Because estrogen contributes to the promotion and progression of breast cancer, a greater understanding of the role of estrogen in breast cancer has led to therapeutic strategies targeting estrogen synthesis, the estrogen receptor, and intracellular signaling pathways. The enzyme aromatase catalyses the final step in estrogen biosynthesis and was identified as an attractive target for selective inhibition. Modern third-generation aromatase inhibitors (AIs) effectively block the production of estrogen without exerting effects on other steroidogenic pathways. The discovery of letrozole (Femara) achieved the goal of discovering a highly potent and totally selective AI. Letrozole has greater potency than other AIs, including anastrozole, exemestane, formestane, and aminoglutethimide. Moreover, letrozole produces near complete inhibition of aromatase in peripheral tissues and is associated with greater suppression of estrogen than is achieved with other AIs. The potent anti-tumor effects of letrozole were demonstrated in several animal models. Studies with MCF-7Ca xenografts successfully predicted that letrozole would be clinically superior to the previous gold standard tamoxifen and also indicated that it may be more effective than other AIs. An extensive program of randomized clinical trials has demonstrated the clinical benefits of letrozole across the spectrum of hormone-responsive breast cancer in postmenopausal women.

Abstract: Before widespread, informed collaboration can take place in conservation there must be a process of understanding the different approaches employed by different conservation organizations to conserve biodiversity. To begin this process and to help build understanding and collaboration, we provide a conceptual map of 21 approaches currently being implemented by 13 conservation organizations. We examined each of these approaches according to (1) the nature of the conservation target—the object(s) of the conservation action; ( 2 ) whether the question addressed is where conservation should be done or how conservation should be done; ( 3 ) the scale ( both grain and extent ) of the approach; and (4 ) the principles that underlie the approach. These questions provide a good way of distinguishing between most of the approaches and reveal that there is less competition between them than is assumed. We conclude that only with explicit understanding can the conservation community and its supporters critically compare approaches and come to a consensus about a set of metrics for measuring and achieving global conservation.

BACKGROUND: Inconsistent findings regarding the relationship between alcohol consumption and depression, including whether the relationship is J-shaped or U-shaped, may be at least partly due to the types of measures used for both alcohol consumption and depression. METHODS: We conducted a general population survey using random digit dialing (RDD) and computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) with 6,009 males and 8,054 females aged 18 to 76 years. The survey included 4 types of alcohol measures (frequency, usual and maximum quantity per occasion, volume, and heavy episodic drinking) covering both the past week and the past year, and 2 types of depression measures (meeting DSM criteria for a clinical diagnosis of major depression, recent depressed affect). RESULTS: The overall relationship between depression and alcohol consumption did not vary by gender or type of depression measure but did vary significantly by type of alcohol measure, with the strongest relationship found for heavy episodic drinking and high quantity per occasion. There were also significant gender interactions with both depression and alcohol measures, with females showing a stronger relationship than males when depression was measured as meeting the criteria for major depression and when alcohol consumption was measured as quantity per occasion or heavy episodic drinking. There was some evidence of a J-shaped relationship, that is, greater depression among abstainers compared with those who usually drank 1 drink and never drank as much as 5 drinks for both former drinkers and lifetime abstainers when depression was measured as recent symptoms of depression but the J shape was found only for former drinkers when depression was measured as meeting the criteria for major depression and did not reach statistical significance in some analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study suggest that measurement and gender are key issues in interpreting findings on the relationship between alcohol and depression. First, depression is primarily related to drinking larger quantities per occasion, less related to volume, and unrelated to drinking frequency, and this effect is stronger for women than for men. Second, the overall relationship between depression and alcohol consumption is stronger for women than for men only when depression is measured as meeting a clinical diagnosis of major depression and not when measured as recent depressed affect. Finally, while there was some evidence that former drinkers had slightly higher rates of major depression and higher scores on recent depressed affect compared with light drinkers, there was no evidence that light drinking was protective for major depression when compared with lifetime abstainers, although light drinkers did report fewer recent symptoms of depressed affect.

Incremental adaptation may be inadequate to deal with rapid shifts and tipping points for food production under climate change. The concepts of transformative and transformational adaptation have emerged in recent years to address the need for major, non-marginal transitions in sectors such as agriculture in response to climate change. However there is less empirical evidence of transformation in practice. Here we use a simple semi-quantitative definition to identify recorded cases of transformational adaptation in response to climate change. A structured search of academic literature found 23 empirical case studies that meet our criteria for transformation of agriculture under climate change: a response to climate risks along with a redistribution of at least a third in the primary factors of production (land, labour, capital) or the outputs and outcomes of production over a time period of 25 years or less. The case studies offer experience-based lessons on managing transformative processes in agriculture at all four stages of the adaptation cycle: understanding goals and objectives, developing a vision and pathway, implementing adaptation actions, and monitoring, evaluating and learning. In general, the case-study processes of transformation have diverged from well-managed, inclusive approaches based on foresight and continual learning. Our review provides little early evidence that transformative adaptation processes in response to climate change have generated more resilient agricultural systems or improvements in governance. Governments and development partners could improve the effectiveness of outcomes through providing more comprehensive and long-term approaches to adaptation planning alongside financial and technical assistance, within a framework that rewards farms as multi-functional systems.

The 2010 biodiversity target agreed by signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity directed the attention of conservation professionals toward the development of indicators with which to measure changes in biological diversity at the global scale. We considered why global biodiversity indicators are needed, what characteristics successful global indicators have, and how existing indicators perform. Because monitoring could absorb a large proportion of funds available for conservation, we believe indicators should be linked explicitly to monitoring objectives and decisions about which monitoring schemes deserve funding should be informed by predictions of the value of such schemes to decision making. We suggest that raising awareness among the public and policy makers, auditing management actions, and informing policy choices are the most important global monitoring objectives. Using four well-developed indicators of biological diversity (extent of forests, coverage of protected areas, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) as examples, we analyzed the characteristics needed for indicators to meet these objectives. We recommend that conservation professionals improve on existing indicators by eliminating spatial biases in data availability, fill gaps in information about ecosystems other than forests, and improve understanding of the way indicators respond to policy changes. Monitoring is not an end in itself, and we believe it is vital that the ultimate objectives of global monitoring of biological diversity inform development of new indicators.

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Global species extinction typically represents the endpoint in a long sequence of population declines and local extinctions. In comparative studies of extinction risk of contemporary mammalian species, there appear to be some universal traits that may predispose taxa to an elevated risk of extinction. In local population-level studies, there are limited insights into the process of population decline and extinction. Moreover, there is still little appreciation of how local processes scale up to global patterns. Advancing the understanding of factors which predispose populations to rapid declines will benefit proactive conservation and may allow us to target at-risk populations as well as at-risk species. Here, we take mammalian population trend data from the largest repository of population abundance trends, and combine it with the PanTHERIA database on mammal traits to answer the question: what factors can be used to predict decline in mammalian abundance? We find in general that environmental variables are better determinants of cross-species population-level decline than intrinsic biological traits. For effective conservation, we must not only describe which species are at risk and why, but also prescribe ways to counteract this.

Abstraction, diversion, and storage of flow alter rivers worldwide. In this context, minimum flow regulations are applied to mitigate adverse impacts and to protect affected river reaches from environmental deterioration. Mostly, however, only selected instream criteria are considered, neglecting the floodplain as an indispensable part of the fluvial ecosystem. Based on essential functions and processes of unimpaired temperate floodplain rivers, we identify fundamental principles to which we must adhere to determine truly ecologically-relevant environmental flows. Literature reveals that the natural flow regime and its seasonal components are primary drivers for functions and processes of abiotic and biotic elements such as morphology, water quality, floodplain, groundwater, riparian vegetation, fish, macroinvertebrates, and amphibians, thus preserving the integrity of floodplain river ecosystems. Based on the relationship between key flow regime elements and associated environmental components within as well as adjacent to the river, we formulate a process-oriented functional floodplain flow (ff-flow) approach which offers a holistic conceptual framework for environmental flow assessment in temperate floodplain river systems. The ff-flow approach underlines the importance of emulating the natural flow regime with its seasonal variability, flow magnitude, frequency, event duration, and rise and fall of the hydrograph. We conclude that the ecological principles presented in the ff-flow approach ensure the protection of floodplain rivers impacted by flow regulation by establishing ecologically relevant environmental flows and guiding flow restoration measures.

Marine conservation actions are promoted to conserve natural values and support human wellbeing. Yet the quality of governance processes and the social consequences of some marine conservation initiatives have been the subject of critique and even human rights complaints. These types of governance and social issues may jeopardize the legitimacy of, support for and long-term effectiveness of marine conservation. Thus, we argue that a clearly articulated and comprehensive set of social standards - a code of conduct - is needed to guide marine conservation. In this paper, we draw on the results of an expert meeting and scoping review to present key principles that might be taken into account in a code of conduct, to propose a draft set of foundational elements for inclusion in a code of conduct, to discuss the benefits and challenges of such a document, and to propose next steps to develop and facilitate the uptake of a broadly applicable code of conduct within the marine conservation community. The objectives of developing such a code of conduct are to promote fair conservation governance and decision-making, socially just conservation actions and outcomes, and accountable conservation practitioners and organizations. The uptake and implementation of a code of conduct would enable marine conservation to be both socially acceptable and ecologically effective, thereby contributing to a truly sustainable ocean.