Kings Mill Hospital

Abstract The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-19 1,2 , host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases 3–7 . They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.

BACKGROUND: More than 30% of patients with pleural infection either die or require surgery. Drainage of infected fluid is key to successful treatment, but intrapleural fibrinolytic therapy did not improve outcomes in an earlier, large, randomized trial. METHODS: We conducted a blinded, 2-by-2 factorial trial in which 210 patients with pleural infection were randomly assigned to receive one of four study treatments for 3 days: double placebo, intrapleural tissue plasminogen activator (t-PA) and DNase, t-PA and placebo, or DNase and placebo. The primary outcome was the change in pleural opacity, measured as the percentage of the hemithorax occupied by effusion, on chest radiography on day 7 as compared with day 1. Secondary outcomes included referral for surgery, duration of hospital stay, and adverse events. RESULTS: The mean (±SD) change in pleural opacity was greater in the t-PA-DNase group than in the placebo group (-29.5±23.3% vs. -17.2±19.6%; difference, -7.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -13.4 to -2.4; P=0.005); the change observed with t-PA alone and with DNase alone (-17.2±24.3 and -14.7±16.4%, respectively) was not significantly different from that observed with placebo. The frequency of surgical referral at 3 months was lower in the t-PA-DNase group than in the placebo group (2 of 48 patients [4%] vs. 8 of 51 patients [16%]; odds ratio for surgical referral, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.03 to 0.87; P=0.03) but was greater in the DNase group (18 of 46 patients [39%]) than in the placebo group (odds ratio, 3.56; 95% CI, 1.30 to 9.75; P=0.01). Combined t-PA-DNase therapy was associated with a reduction in the hospital stay, as compared with placebo (difference, -6.7 days; 95% CI, -12.0 to -1.9; P=0.006); the hospital stay with either agent alone was not significantly different from that with placebo. The frequency of adverse events did not differ significantly among the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Intrapleural t-PA-DNase therapy improved fluid drainage in patients with pleural infection and reduced the frequency of surgical referral and the duration of the hospital stay. Treatment with DNase alone or t-PA alone was ineffective. (Funded by an unrestricted educational grant to the University of Oxford from Roche UK and by others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN57454527.).

Editor—One of the priorities in the national service framework for coronary heart disease summarised by Mayor1 was “improved use of effective medicines after heart attack—especially aspirin, β blockers, and statins—so that 80-90% of people discharged from hospital after a heart attack will be prescribed these drugs.” This is the recommendation in the executive summary, which taken at face value implies that all three drugs should be prescribed before a patient leaves hospital. In contrast, the recommendation in the main document is that aspirin and β blocker treatment should be started in hospital and statin treatment left for “continuing care.” Statin treatment was not started at the time of infarction in any of the large secondary prevention studies. The shortest times from infarction to inclusion were six months in the Scandinavian simvastatin survival study (4S),2 and three months in the cholesterol and recurrent events (CARE) study3 and the long term intervention with pravastatin in ischaemic disease (LIPID) study.4 Thus the common practice of starting treatment before discharge is not strictly evidence based and statin treatment may be harmful immediately after myocardial infarction. Starting treatment before discharge, however, ensures that the drug is prescribed and simplifies audit. A further recommendation in the main document is “give statins to lower serum cholesterol concentrations either to less than 5 mmol/l (low density lipoprotein cholesterol below 3 mmol/l) or by 30% (whichever is greater).” I find this ambiguous because a percentage change cannot be compared to a concentration, but I presume that the intention is to exclude from treatment those with a total cholesterol concentration under 5 mmol/l on admission. An audit of my own patients with myocardial infarction showed that statin treatment was not appropriate in 22% for this reason. The main document states that patients with acute myocardial infarction should usually receive the recommended interventions unless contraindicated. Surely all patients without intolerance or contradindications should receive aspirin and β blockers. Similarly, all patients with a total cholesterol concentration greater than or equal to 5 mmol/l should be treated with a statin, but they may number less than 80% of the total. Whether the 80-90% standard above applies to all patients or to those without contraindications is not clear. These ambiguities need to be clarified or the results of comparative audit will be meaningless. The criteria for audit should be as rigorous as those for clinical trials.

<h3>Objectives</h3> (1) To identify operational issues encountered by study participants in using the ‘Care for Stroke’ intervention; (2) to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention. <h3>Design</h3> Mixed-methods research design. <h3>Setting</h3> Participant9s home. Participants were selected from a tertiary hospital in Chennai, South India. <h3>Participants</h3> Sixty stroke survivors treated and discharged from the hospital, and their caregivers. <h3>Intervention</h3> ‘Care for Stroke’ is a smartphone-enabled, educational intervention for management of physical disabilities following stroke. It is delivered through a web-based, smartphone-enabled application. It includes inputs from stroke rehabilitation experts in a digitised format. <h3>Methods</h3> Evaluation of the intervention was completed in two phases. In the first phase, the preliminary intervention was field-tested with 30 stroke survivors for 2 weeks. In the second phase, the finalised intervention was provided to a further 30 stroke survivors to be used in their homes with support from their carers for 4 weeks. <h3>Primary and secondary outcome measures</h3> Primary outcomes: (1) operational difficulties in using the intervention; (2) feasibility and acceptability of the intervention in an Indian setting. Disability and dependency were assessed as secondary outcomes. <h3>Results</h3> Field-testing identified operational difficulties related to connectivity, video-streaming, picture clarity, quality of videos, and functionality of the application. The intervention was reviewed, revised and finalised before pilot-testing. Findings from the pilot-testing showed that the ‘Care for Stroke’ intervention was feasible and acceptable. Over 90% (n=27) of the study participants felt that the intervention was relevant, comprehensible and useful. Over 96% (n=29) of the stroke survivors and all the caregivers (100%, n=30) rated the intervention as excellent and very useful. These findings were supported by qualitative interviews. <h3>Conclusions</h3> Evaluation indicated that the ‘Care for Stroke’ intervention was feasible and acceptable in an Indian context. An assessment of effectiveness is now warranted.

Dengue viral infections are one of the most important mosquito borne diseases in the world. They may be asymptomatic or may give rise to undifferentiated fever, dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), or dengue shock syndrome. Annually, 100 million cases of dengue fever and half a million cases of DHF occur worldwide. Ninety percent of DHF subjects are children less than 15 years of age. At present, dengue is endemic in 112 countries in the world. No vaccine is available for preventing this disease. Early recognition and prompt initiation of appropriate treatment are vital if disease related morbidity and mortality are to be limited. This review outlines aspects of the epidemiology of dengue infections, the dengue virus and its mosquito vector, clinical features and pathogenesis of dengue infections, and the management and control of these infections.

BACKGROUND: The criteria for stopping Delphi studies are often subjective. This study aimed to examine whether consensus and stability in the Delphi process can be ascertained by descriptive evaluation of trends in participants' views. METHODS: A three round email-based Delphi required participants (n = 12) to verify their level of agreement with 8 statements, write comments on each if they considered it necessary and rank the statements for importance. Each statement was analysed quantitatively by the percentage of agreement ratings, importance rankings and the amount of comments made for each statement, and qualitatively using thematic analysis. Importance rankings between rounds were compared by calculating Kappa values to observe trends in how the process impacts on subject's views. RESULTS: Evolution of consensus was shown by increase in agreement percentages, convergence of range with standard deviations of importance ratings, and a decrease in the number of comments made. Stability was demonstrated by a trend of increasing Kappa values. CONCLUSION: Following the original use of Delphi in social sciences, Delphi is suggested to be an effective way to gain and measure group consensus in healthcare. However, the proposed analytical process should be followed to ensure maximum validity of results in Delphi methodology for improved evidence of consensual decision-making.

We analyzed the clinical and laboratory characteristics of 50 patients with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (5 from our clinics and 45 from a MEDLINE computer-assisted review of the literature from 1992 through 1996). Thirty-three (66%) patients were female and 17 (34%) were male. Twenty-eight (56%) patients had primary APS, 15 (30%) had defined systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 6 (12%) had "lupus-like" syndrome, and 1 (2%) had rheumatoid arthritis. Mean age of patients in this series was 38 +/- 14 years (range, 11-74 yr). Three (6%) patients developed the clinical picture of catastrophic APS under the age of 15 years, and 11 (22%) were 50 years old or more. In 11 (22%) patients, precipitating factors contributed to the development of catastrophic APS (infections in 3, drugs in 3, minor surgical procedures in 3, anticoagulation withdrawal in 2, and hysterectomy in 1). The presentation of the acute multi-organ failure was usually complex, involving multiple organs simultaneously or in a very short period of time. The majority of patients manifested microangiopathy--that is, occlusive vascular disease affecting predominantly small vessels of organs, particularly kidney, lungs, brain, heart, and liver--with a minority of patients experiencing only large vessel occlusions. Thrombocytopenia was reported in 34 (68%) patients, hemolytic anemia in 13 (26%), disseminated intravascular coagulation in 14 (28%), and schistocytes in 7 (14%). The following antibodies were detected: lupus anticoagulant (94%), anticardiolipin antibodies (94%), anti-dsDNA (87% of patients with SLE), antinuclear antibodies (58%), anti-Ro/SS-A (8%), anti-RNP (8%), and anti-La/SS-B (2%). Anticoagulation was used in 70% of the patients, steroids in 70%, plasmapheresis in 40%, cyclophosphamide in 34%, intravenous gammaglobulins in 16%, and splenectomy in 4%. Most patients, however, received a combination of nonsurgical therapies. Death occurred in 25 of the 50 (50%) patients. In most, cardiac problems seemed to be the major cause of death. In several of these, respiratory failure was also present, usually due to acute respiratory distress syndrome and diffuse alveolar hemorrhage. Among the 20 patients who received the combination of anticoagulation, steroids, and plasmapheresis or intravenous gammaglobulins, recovery occurred in 14 (70%) patients. The use of ancrod and defibrotide appeared to be effective in the 2 respective patients in whom they were used.

Thoracoscopy under local anaesthetic and intravenous sedation, also known as local anaesthetic thoracoscopy, medical thoracoscopy or pleuroscopy, is increasingly being performed by chest physicians in the UK. In 1999, 11 centres across the UK offered a local anaesthetic thoracoscopy service, increasing to 17 centres in May 20041 and 37 centres in 2009 (Dr N Downer, personal communication). This document, which will use the term ‘local anaesthetic thoracoscopy’, aims to consider the following issues and to make appropriate recommendations on the basis of evidence where available: Creation of this guideline followed the Appraisal of Guidelines Research and Evaluation/Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (AGREE/SIGN) methodology of evidence assessment and integration (see introduction to pleural disease guidelines). Is there a need for a physician-based local anaesthetic thoracoscopy service in the UK? The majority of local anaesthetic thoracoscopy is carried out in the context of an undiagnosed exudative pleural effusion, the commonest cause of which is malignancy.2 This section of the document will therefore focus mainly on local anaesthetic thoracoscopy in the context of malignant disease. ### The increasing burden of pleural disease Malignant pleural effusion is a common clinical problem. Although the incidence of lung cancer in the UK is falling, the incidence of other cancers is rising. With increasing life expectancy in an ageing population and at current cancer incidence rates, an additional 100 000 cases of cancer per year are expected by 2025.3 Up to 15% of patients who die with malignancy have a pleural effusion at autopsy.4 Studies suggest that exudative effusions are caused by malignancy …

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relationship between inflammation and angiogenesis in synovial tissue from patients with osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Hematoxylin and eosin staining and histologic grading for inflammation were performed for 104 patients who met the American College of Rheumatology criteria for OA and had undergone total joint replacement or arthroscopy. A purposive sample of synovial specimens obtained from 70 patients was used for further analysis. Vascular endothelium, endothelial cell (EC) proliferating nuclei, macrophages, and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were detected by immunohistochemical analysis. Angiogenesis (EC proliferation, EC fractional area), macrophage fractional area, and VEGF immunoreactivity were measured using computer-assisted image analysis. Double immunofluorescence histochemical analysis was used to determine the cellular localization of VEGF. Radiographic scores for joint space narrowing and osteophyte formation in the knee were also assessed. RESULTS: Synovial tissue samples from 32 (31%) of 104 patients with OA showed severe inflammation; thickened intimal lining and associated lymphoid aggregates were often observed. The EC fractional area, EC proliferation, and VEGF immunoreactivity all increased with increasing histologic inflammation grade and increasing macrophage fractional area. In the synovial intimal lining, VEGF immunoreactivity was localized to macrophages and increased with increasing EC fractional area and angiogenesis. No inflammation or angiogenic indices were significantly correlated with radiographic scores. CONCLUSION: Inflammation and angiogenesis in the synovium are associated with OA. The angiogenic growth factor VEGF generated by the inflamed synovium may promote angiogenesis, thereby contributing to inflammation in OA.

after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes-including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)-in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease.

These guidelines have been replaced by BTS Pleural Disease Guideline 2010 Superseded By BTS Pleural Disease Guideline 2010: BTS Guidelines for the Management of Pleural Disease. Thorax 2003 May; 58(Suppl 2): 1–59.

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is a classical autoimmune liver disease for which effective immunomodulatory therapy is lacking. Here we perform meta-analyses of discovery data sets from genome-wide association studies of European subjects (n=2,764 cases and 10,475 controls) followed by validation genotyping in an independent cohort (n=3,716 cases and 4,261 controls). We discover and validate six previously unknown risk loci for PBC (Pcombined<5 × 10(-8)) and used pathway analysis to identify JAK-STAT/IL12/IL27 signalling and cytokine-cytokine pathways, for which relevant therapies exist.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of omeprazole, 20 mg once daily, in the treatment of reflux oesophagitis and the therapeutic advantages over the histamine H2 receptor antagonists are well documented. This study assessed 20 mg omeprazole daily (OM20), 10 mg omeprazole daily (OM10), and 150 mg ranitidine (RAN) twice daily for symptom relief in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD). METHODS: Patients (n = 994) presenting with heartburn to their general practitioner underwent endoscopy to exclude peptic ulcer disease and were randomized into a UK, multicentre, parallel-group, double-blind comparison of the three treatments for 4 weeks. Symptoms were assessed at clinic visits after 2 and 4 weeks. RESULTS: Symptom relief after 4 weeks was achieved by 61% (OM20), 49% (OM10), and 40% (RAN) patients (OM20 versus OM10, P < 0.0167; OM20 versus RAN, P < 0.0001; OM10 versus RAN, P < 0.01). Among the patients (32%) with erosive reflux oesophagitis, symptom relief was achieved in 79% (OM20), 48% (OM10), and 33% (RAN) (OM20 versus OM10, P < 0.0001; OM20 versus RAN, P < 0.0001; OM1O versus RAN, NS). CONCLUSION: Omeprazole, 20 mg, is the most effective initial therapy for relief of GORD symptoms.

### Spontaneous pneumothorax #### Acute management for spontaneous pneumothorax ##### Recommendations ##### Good practice points #### Optimal management after the resolution of a first episode of pneumothorax ##### Good practice points #### Optimal management for spontaneous pneumothorax and ongoing air leak ##### Good practice point

Abstract Rationale The impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) has not been established. Objectives To assess outcomes in patients with ILD hospitalized for COVID-19 versus those without ILD in a contemporaneous age-, sex-, and comorbidity-matched population. Methods An international multicenter audit of patients with a prior diagnosis of ILD admitted to the hospital with COVID-19 between March 1 and May 1, 2020, was undertaken and compared with patients without ILD, obtained from the ISARIC4C (International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium) cohort, admitted with COVID-19 over the same period. The primary outcome was survival. Secondary analysis distinguished idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis from non–idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis ILD and used lung function to determine the greatest risks of death. Measurements and Main Results Data from 349 patients with ILD across Europe were included, of whom 161 were admitted to the hospital with laboratory or clinical evidence of COVID-19 and eligible for propensity score matching. Overall mortality was 49% (79/161) in patients with ILD with COVID-19. After matching, patients with ILD with COVID-19 had significantly poorer survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.60; confidence interval, 1.17–2.18; P = 0.003) than age-, sex-, and comorbidity-matched controls without ILD. Patients with an FVC of &amp;lt;80% had an increased risk of death versus patients with FVC ≥80% (HR, 1.72; 1.05–2.83). Furthermore, obese patients with ILD had an elevated risk of death (HR, 2.27; 1.39−3.71). Conclusions Patients with ILD are at increased risk of death from COVID-19, particularly those with poor lung function and obesity. Stringent precautions should be taken to avoid COVID-19 in patients with ILD.

IMPORTANCE: For treatment of malignant pleural effusion, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are avoided because they may reduce pleurodesis efficacy. Smaller chest tubes may be less painful than larger tubes, but efficacy in pleurodesis has not been proven. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of chest tube size and analgesia (NSAIDs vs opiates) on pain and clinical efficacy related to pleurodesis in patients with malignant pleural effusion. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A 2×2 factorial phase 3 randomized clinical trial among 320 patients requiring pleurodesis in 16 UK hospitals from 2007 to 2013. INTERVENTIONS: Patients undergoing thoracoscopy (n = 206; clinical decision if biopsy was required) received a 24F chest tube and were randomized to receive opiates (n = 103) vs NSAIDs (n = 103), and those not undergoing thoracoscopy (n = 114) were randomized to 1 of 4 groups (24F chest tube and opioids [n = 28]; 24F chest tube and NSAIDs [n = 29]; 12F chest tube and opioids [n = 29]; or 12F chest tube and NSAIDs [n = 28]). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Pain while chest tube was in place (0- to 100-mm visual analog scale [VAS] 4 times/d; superiority comparison) and pleurodesis efficacy at 3 months (failure defined as need for further pleural intervention; noninferiority comparison; margin, 15%). RESULTS: Pain scores in the opiate group (n = 150) vs the NSAID group (n = 144) were not significantly different (mean VAS score, 23.8 mm vs 22.1 mm; adjusted difference, -1.5 mm; 95% CI, -5.0 to 2.0 mm; P = .40), but the NSAID group required more rescue analgesia (26.3% vs 38.1%; rate ratio, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.4; P = .003). Pleurodesis failure occurred in 30 patients (20%) in the opiate group and 33 (23%) in the NSAID group, meeting criteria for noninferiority (difference, -3%; 1-sided 95% CI, -10% to ∞; P = .004 for noninferiority). Pain scores were lower among patients in the 12F chest tube group (n = 54) vs the 24F group (n = 56) (mean VAS score, 22.0 mm vs 26.8 mm; adjusted difference, -6.0 mm; 95% CI, -11.7 to -0.2 mm; P = .04) and 12F chest tubes vs 24F chest tubes were associated with higher pleurodesis failure (30% vs 24%), failing to meet noninferiority criteria (difference, -6%; 1-sided 95% CI, -20% to ∞; P = .14 for noninferiority). Complications during chest tube insertion occurred more commonly with 12F tubes (14% vs 24%; odds ratio, 1.91; P = .20). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Use of NSAIDs vs opiates resulted in no significant difference in pain scores but was associated with more rescue medication. NSAID use resulted in noninferior rates of pleurodesis efficacy at 3 months. Placement of 12F chest tubes vs 24F chest tubes was associated with a statistically significant but clinically modest reduction in pain but failed to meet noninferiority criteria for pleurodesis efficacy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN33288337.

Abstract Critical illness in COVID-19 is an extreme and clinically homogeneous disease phenotype that we have previously shown 1 to be highly efficient for discovery of genetic associations 2 . Despite the advanced stage of illness at presentation, we have shown that host genetics in patients who are critically ill with COVID-19 can identify immunomodulatory therapies with strong beneficial effects in this group 3 . Here we analyse 24,202 cases of COVID-19 with critical illness comprising a combination of microarray genotype and whole-genome sequencing data from cases of critical illness in the international GenOMICC (11,440 cases) study, combined with other studies recruiting hospitalized patients with a strong focus on severe and critical disease: ISARIC4C (676 cases) and the SCOURGE consortium (5,934 cases). To put these results in the context of existing work, we conduct a meta-analysis of the new GenOMICC genome-wide association study (GWAS) results with previously published data. We find 49 genome-wide significant associations, of which 16 have not been reported previously. To investigate the therapeutic implications of these findings, we infer the structural consequences of protein-coding variants, and combine our GWAS results with gene expression data using a monocyte transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) model, as well as gene and protein expression using Mendelian randomization. We identify potentially druggable targets in multiple systems, including inflammatory signalling ( JAK1 ), monocyte–macrophage activation and endothelial permeability ( PDE4A ), immunometabolism ( SLC2A5 and AK5 ), and host factors required for viral entry and replication ( TMPRSS2 and RAB2A ).

BACKGROUND: Mortality due to cirrhosis has tripled over the last 30 years in the UK. However, we lack adequate, contemporary, population-based estimates of the excess mortality patients who are at risk compared with the general population. AIM: To determine the overall survival in patients with cirrhosis compared with the general population taking into account the effects of severity and aetiology of disease and comorbidity. METHODS: In a cohort study, we identified 4537 people with cirrhosis and a control cohort of 44 403 patients, matched by age, sex and general practice from the UK General Practice Research Database between June 1987 and April 2002. RESULTS: Patients with compensated cirrhosis had a nearly five-fold [hazard ratio (HR) 4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4-5.0] increased risk of death, while those with decompensated cirrhosis had a near 10-fold (HR 9.7, 95% CI 8.9-10.6) increased risk compared with the general population. Alcoholic cirrhosis conferred a worse prognosis than non-alcohol-related cirrhosis both in the first year following diagnosis and subsequently. CONCLUSION: Having a diagnosis of cirrhosis confers a substantial increased mortality risk compared with the general population, even for those with compensated disease, with 5-year survival between that seen for breast and colorectal cancer.

Cognitive-behavioural therapy and maintenance of exercise have emerged as major tools in the treatment of patients with chronic low back pain. Patients' beliefs about their problem may influence their uptake of and responses to particular treatment modalities. In particular, we hypothesised that patients' beliefs about the cause and treatment of pain may mediate changes in physical disability following participation in a multidisciplinary pain management programme. A cohort of 84 patients was invited to respond to booklets of self-report questionnaires prior to, immediately after and 3 months following participation in multidisciplinary pain management programmes. Questionnaires addressed subjects' beliefs about the nature and treatment of pain (Pain Beliefs Questionnaire), and their disability (Likert-modified Roland and Morris Disability Questionnaire, Physical Functioning scale of the Short Form-36 Health Survey, and Oswestry Low Back Pain Disability Questionnaire). Patients with chronic low back pain who more strongly endorsed 'organic' concepts about the nature and treatment of pain reported higher levels of physical disability at baseline, and displayed greater reductions in disability following participation in the pain management programmes. Reductions in reported 'organic' pain beliefs were associated with improvements in reported disability. Endorsement of 'psychological' concepts about the nature and treatment of pain was not associated with disability. These findings support a view that patients' beliefs about the nature and treatment of their pain can change during participation in a multidisciplinary pain management programme based on cognitive-behavioural intervention. Modification of these beliefs may be associated with improvements in patients' perceptions of the level of their disability.

BACKGROUND: We lack population-based estimates of the rate of decompensation in people with compensated cirrhosis as well as estimates of the manner in which the disease progresses once identified. AIM: To determine the rate of decompensation and clinical progression of disease in patients with cirrhosis based upon clinical symptoms recorded electronically in general practice data. METHODS: Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we modelled the rate of decompensation for patients from the UK General Practice Research Database with a diagnosis of cirrhosis between 1987 and 2002. We determined the clinical progression in the first year following diagnosis and subsequently categorizing patients through time according to a simple clinical staging system agreed at the Baveno IV consensus conference. RESULTS: The rate of decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis was found to be 11% overall. The rate of decompensation was higher in the first year (at 31% compared with 7.3% afterwards) and in patients with an alcoholic aetiology. Patients with compensated cirrhosis had a 1-year probability of proceeding directly to death of 7% compared with 20% in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Using data recorded in general practice records, it is possible to determine the rate of decompensation and the clinical progression of disease in people with cirrhosis.