National Institutes for the Humanities

Abstract Drainage basins in many parts of the world are ungauged or poorly gauged, and in some cases existing measurement networks are declining. The problem is compounded by the impacts of human-induced changes to the land surface and climate, occurring at the local, regional and global scales. Predictions of ungauged or poorly gauged basins under these conditions are highly uncertain. The IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins, or PUB, is a new initiative launched by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), aimed at formulating and implementing appropriate science programmes to engage and energize the scientific community, in a coordinated manner, towards achieving major advances in the capacity to make predictions in ungauged basins. The PUB scientific programme focuses on the estimation of predictive uncertainty, and its subsequent reduction, as its central theme. A general hydrological prediction system contains three components: (a) a model that describes the key processes of interest, (b) a set of parameters that represent those landscape properties that govern critical processes, and (c) appropriate meteorological inputs (where needed) that drive the basin response. Each of these three components of the prediction system, is either not known at all, or at best known imperfectly, due to the inherent multi-scale space—time heterogeneity of the hydrological system, especially in ungauged basins. PUB will therefore include a set of targeted scientific programmes that attempt to make inferences about climatic inputs, parameters and model structures from available but inadequate data and process knowledge, at the basin of interest and/or from other similar basins, with robust measures of the uncertainties involved, and their impacts on predictive uncertainty. Through generation of improved understanding, and methods for the efficient quantification of the underlying multi-scale heterogeneity of the basin and its response, PUB will inexorably lead to new, innovative methods for hydrological predictions in ungauged basins in different parts of the world, combined with significant reductions of predictive uncertainty. In this way, PUB will demonstrate the value of data, as well as provide the information needed to make predictions in ungauged basins, and assist in capacity building in the use of new technologies. This paper presents a summary of the science and implementation plan of PUB, with a call to the hydrological community to participate actively in the realization of these goals.

Abstract A new gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation has been constructed on a 0.5° latitude–longitude grid over East Asia (5°–60°N, 65°–155°E) for a 26-yr period from 1978 to 2003 using gauge observations at over 2200 stations collected from several individual sources. First, analyzed fields of daily climatology are computed by interpolating station climatology defined as the summation of the first six harmonics of the 365-calendar-day time series of the mean daily values averaged over a 20-yr period from 1978 to 1997. These fields of daily climatology are then adjusted by the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) monthly precipitation climatology to correct the bias caused by orographic effects. Gridded fields of the ratio of daily precipitation to the daily climatology are created by interpolating the corresponding station values using the optimal interpolation method. Analyses of total daily precipitation are finally calculated by multiplying the daily climatology by the daily ratio. Cross-validation tests indicated that this gauge-based analysis has high quantitative quality with a negligible bias and a correlation coefficient of ∼0.6 for comparisons between withdrawn station data and the analysis at a 0.05° latitude–longitude grid box. The quality of the analysis increases with the gauge network density. The mean distribution and annual cycle of this new gauge analysis present similar patterns but with more detailed structures and slightly larger magnitude compared to other published monthly gauge analyses over the region. The East Asia gauge analysis is applied to verify the performance of five satellite-based precipitation estimates. This examination reveals the regionally and seasonally dependent performance of the satellite products with the best statistics observed for relatively wet regions. Further improvements of the daily gauge analysis are underway to increase the gauge network density and to refine the algorithm to better deal with the orographic effects especially over South and Southeast Asia.

The 12 weather and climate models participating in the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) show both a wide variation in the strength of land–atmosphere coupling and some intriguing commonalities. In this paper, the causes of variations in coupling strength—both the geographic variations within a given model and the model-to-model differences—are addressed. The ability of soil moisture to affect precipitation is examined in two stages, namely, the ability of the soil moisture to affect evaporation, and the ability of evaporation to affect precipitation. Most of the differences between the models and within a given model are found to be associated with the first stage—an evaporation rate that varies strongly and consistently with soil moisture tends to lead to a higher coupling strength. The first-stage differences reflect identifiable differences in model parameterization and model climate. Intermodel differences in the evaporation–precipitation connection, however, also play a key role.

We review the origins and dispersal of rice in Asia based on a data base of 443 archaeobotanical reports. Evidence is considered in terms of quality, and especially whether there are data indicating the mode of cultivation, in flooded (‘paddy’ or ‘wet’) or non-flooded (‘dry’) fields. At present it appears that early rice cultivation in the Yangtze region and southern China was based on wet, paddy-field systems from early on, before 4000 bc, whereas early rice in northern India and Thailand was predominantly dry rice at 2000 bc, with a transition to flooded rice documented for India at c. 1000 bc. On the basis of these data we have developed a GIS spatial model of the spread of rice and the growth of land area under paddy rice. This is then compared with a review of the spread of ungulate livestock (cattle, water buffalo, sheep, goat) throughout the Old World. After the initial dispersal through Europe and around the Mediterranean (7000–4000 bc), the major period of livestock expansion is after 3000 bc, into the Sub-Saharan savannas, through monsoonal India and into central China. Further expansion, to southern Africa and Southeast Asia dates mostly after 1000 bc. Based on these two data sets we provide a quantitative model of the land area under irrigated rice, and its likely methane output, through the mid to late Holocene, for comparison to a more preliminary estimate of the expansion of methane-producing livestock. Both data sets are congruent with an anthropogenic source of later Holocene methane after 3000 bc, although it may be that increase in methane input from livestock was most significant in the 3000–1000 bc period, whereas rice paddies become an increasingly significant source especially after 2000 bc.

Mundari, an Austroasiatic language of India (Munda family), has often been cited as an example of a language without word classes, where a single word can function as noun, verb, adjective, etc. according to the context. These claims, originating in a 1903 grammar by the missionary John Hoffmann, have recently been repeated uncritically by a number of typologists. In this article we review the evidence for word class fluidity, on the basis of a careful analysis of Hoffmann’s corpus as well as substantial new data, including a large lexical sample at two levels of detail. We argue that in fact Mundari does have clearly definable word classes, with distinct open classes of verb and noun, in addition to a closed adjective class, though there are productive possibilities for using all as predicates. Along the way, we elaborate a series of criteria that would need to be met before any language could seriously be claimed to lack a noun-verb distinction: most importantly strict compositionality, bidirectional flexibility, and exhaustiveness through the lexicon.

The Convention on Biological Diversity's 2020 targets are an improvement over the 2010 target, but they could be strengthened.

Between 4500 and 3500 years ago, partially intrusive Neolithic populations in the riverine basins of mainland Southeast Asia began to form mounded settlements and to develop economies based on rice cultivation, fishing, hunting, and the domestication of animals, especially pigs and dogs. A number of these sites have been excavated in recent years and they are often large mounds that can attain several meters in depth, comprising successive layers of alluvial soil brought in periodically to serve as living floors. The site of An Son is of this type and lies in a small valley immediately north of the Mekong Delta in southern Vietnam. Excavated on five occasions since 1978, and most recently in 2009, it was occupied from the late third into the late second millennium b.c . An Son has produced evidence that attests the domestication of pigs and dogs in all layers apart (perhaps) from the most basal one, which was not investigated in 2009, together with the growing of rice of the subspecies Oryza sativa japonica , of Chinese Neolithic origin. The oldest pottery has simple incised and punctate zoned decoration with parallels in central Thailand, especially in the basal phases at Nong Nor and Khok Phanom Di. From its middle and later occupation phases (1800–1200 b.c .), An Son has produced a number of supine extended burials with finely decorated pottery grave goods that carry some unique forms, especially vessels with wavy or serrated rims. The An Son burials represent a Neolithic population that expressed a mixture of both indigenous Hoabinhian and more northerly (probably Neolithic southern Chinese) cranial and dental phenotypes, perhaps representing a likely ancestral population for some of the modern Austroasiatic-speaking populations of mainland Southeast Asia.

In recent years, Japan has undergone an unprecedented increase in farmland abandonment, which not only causes serious environmental problems and rural landscape loss, but also has a significant impact on socio-economic conditions and the livelihood of Japanese farmers. Many studies have analyzed farmland abandonment and its processes and drivers at multiple scales; however, few have focused on East Asia, especially Japan, which is a heavily depopulated country in rural areas suffering from serious abandonment. Therefore, this study attempts to shed light on the spatial patterns and determinants of farmland abandonment in Japan. For this analysis, we used the former municipalities defined in 1950 at a national scale as unit samples. Consequently, the spatial patterns, characteristics and variations of farmland abandonment in Japan are displayed. As for the drivers or determinants, we adopted ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) by categorizing the determinants into geographical and socio-economic aspects. We have found that, firstly, farmland abandonment in Japan exhibits a significantly uneven pattern. While taking the farmland abandonment rate as a measurement, the results demonstrate that most abandoned farmland is positively correlated with slope and is highly clustered in the Kanto, Chubu and Chugoku Shikoku regions, compared to other regions that are suitable for agricultural production, such as the Hokkaido and Tohoku regions. Secondly, the arable land ratio of self-sufficient farm households, the ratio of non-successor farm households and the number of laborers per farm household positively affect abandonment. In contrast, arable land area per farm household and paddy field density have a negative impact on abandonment. Thirdly, the determinants are spatially varied among study regions. Farmland abandonment is driven by interactions of multiple determinants and depends on specific local circumstances. Such results can contribute to the understanding of farmland abandonment in Japan, promoting the maintenance of farmland and sustainable agriculture.

This study presents the advantages of detailed landscape analysis by UAV (drone hereafter) photogrammetry compared with satellite remote sensing data. First, satellite data are used for generating a coarse-scale land use/land-cover (LULC) map of the study region using conventional GIS techniques. The Advanced Land Observation Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) L-Band backscattering data are processed with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) supervised classification for generating a categorical map. The satellite-derived classification map resulted in eight general land-cover types with a ground resolution of 7.5 m, providing a moderate-resolution representation of the island landscapes. Second, the drone’s image data are used to collect ground survey information and microscale information of the local site by implementing a structure from motion (SfM) technique to develop mosaicked orthorectified images of the sites. The orthophoto and digital surface model (DSM) derived from the drone-based data had resolutions of 0.05 m and 0.1 m, respectively. The SAR-based LULC map showed an overall accuracy of 78.1%, and the drone-based LULC map had an overall average accuracy of 92.3%. The subset area of the SAR map was compared with the drone-based map and showed average Kappa statistics of 0.375, demonstrating that satellite data cause challenges in correctly delineating the local land environment. The terrain information generated by the SfM method provided a good representation of the topography showing the drastic changes in the environment. The results indicate the usefulness of drone-based landscape analysis for future land-use planning at a local village scale.

Taxonomical classification of higher fungi remains an important challenge and can benefit from the application of molecular analysis. We propose that the ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal taxa might include a number of cryptic species because there are few morphological characteristics useful for distinguishing among these fungi. Previously, host specificity in most EM fungi was thought to be low, but we suspect that confusion of cryptic species has led to an underestimate of fungal host specificity. We analyzed both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences from Strobilomyces fungi and obtained evidence that what were previously described as four species can be grouped into 14 distinct lineages, suggesting that these lineages might be distinct biological species. Moreover, we identified host plants for Strobilomyces via nucleotide sequencing of both fungal and plant DNA from EM samples. Most lineages of Strobilomyces tested in this study were associated only with Fagaceae trees, even though Strobilomyces species were previously thought to be generalists with regard to hosts. Thus, we present an approach useful for identifying cryptic species and detecting the true host range of a set of EM fungi in natural conditions.

Flower orientation is an important character influencing plant fitness.Zygomorphic flowers are known to orient vertically.We conducted field experiments in which we changed the flower angle of zygomorphic Commelina communis to determine how flower orientation affects pollinator behaviour.We confirmed that Commelina flowers oriented vertically like other zygomorphic flowers.Then, we artificially prepared control, upward-and downward-oriented flowers and exposed them to natural pollinators (syrphid flies and bumblebees).We found that the frequency of approach by syrphid flies and bumblebees was not influenced by flower angle, but there were fewer landings on downward-oriented flowers than on control and upwardoriented flowers.Moreover, the upward flower orientation increased illegitimate landings (landing on the flower without touching the stigmas or mating-related anthers) compared with controls.Thus, vertical flower orientation in zygomorphic flowers serves to control pollinator landings.Our findings suggest that deviations from vertical orientation may reduce fitness in C. communis by reducing the efficiency of insect-mediated pollen transfer.

Several recent analyses have focused on how social and cultural factors shape development, but less well understood are the individual constructive processes involved in this interplay. This volume showcases varied theoretical and empirical approaches to how individual, social and cultural factors shape development, and suggests new directions for future scholarship.

In primates, neuronal representations of objects are processed hierarchically in occipitotemporal cortices. A "novel" feature of objects is thought to emerge and become prevalent at a cortical area because of processing in this area. We tested the possibility that a feature representation prevalent in a given area emerges in the microcircuit of a hierarchically prior area as a small number of prototypes and then becomes prevalent in the subsequent area. We recorded multiple single units in each of hierarchically sequential areas TE and 36 of macaque temporal cortex and found the predicted convergent microcircuit for object-object association in area TE. Associative codes were then built up over time in the microcircuit of area 36. These results suggest a computational principle underlying sequentially elaborated object representations.

The indirect effect of aerosols was simulated by a GCM for nonconvective water clouds and was compared with remote sensing results from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite-borne sensor for January, April, July, and October of 1990. The simulated global distribution of cloud droplet radius showed a land–sea contrast and a characteristic feature along the coastal region similar to the AVHRR results, although cloud droplet radii from GCM calculations and AVHRR retrievals were different over tropical marine regions due to a lack of calculation of cloud–aerosol interaction for convective clouds in the present model and also due to a possible error in the satellite retrieval caused by cirrus and broken cloud contamination. The simulated dependence of the cloud properties on the column aerosol particle number was also consistent with the statistics obtained by the AVHRR remote sensing when a parameterization with the aerosol lifetime effect was incorporated in the simulation. The global average of the simulated liquid water path based on the parameterization with the aerosol lifetime effect showed an insignificant dependence on the aerosol particle number as a result of a global balance of the lifetime effect and the wash-out effect. This dependence was contrary to the results of simulations based on the Sundqvist's parameterization without aerosol lifetime effect; that is, the simulated cloud liquid water path showed a decreasing tendency with the aerosol particle number reflecting only the wash-out effect.

The degradation of tropical forests is progressing rapidly and its ecological effects on wild animals are a global concern. We evaluated the hypothesis that small mammals in highly degraded forest occupy higher trophic levels than those in somewhat degraded forests, as indicated by diets high in consumers such as insects, in a tropical rain forest in Sarawak, Malaysia. After correcting for differences in the δ 15 N values for primary production among the study sites, the δ 15 N corrected values for rats and mice (Muridae) differed significantly among forest types. Rats and mice in more degraded forest had higher δ 15 N corrected values than those in less degraded or primary forest; in contrast, treeshrews (Tupaiidae) and squirrels (Sciuridae) showed no significant differences in the δ 15 N corrected values among forest types. We found significant positive correlations between canopy openness and the δ 15 N corrected values for one species of squirrel and two species of rats. This hypothesis was supported for small mammals that have normal dietary preferences for plants, i.e., omnivorous rodents, but not for those that normally prefer insects, i.e., treeshrews. The δ 15 N values for omnivorous mammals may be useful as an indicator of changes in food-web structure in response to forest disturbance.

Reliably rooted phylogenetic trees play irreplaceable roles in clarifying diversification in the patterns of species and populations. However, such trees are often unavailable in phylogeographic studies, particularly when the focus is on rapidly expanded populations that exhibit star-like trees. A fundamental bottleneck is known as the random rooting effect, where a distant outgroup tends to root an unrooted tree "randomly." We investigated whether parallel mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) sequencing alleviates this effect in phylogeography using a case study on the Sea of Japan lineage of the intertidal goby Chaenogobius annularis Eighty-three C. annularis individuals were collected and their mitogenomes were determined by high-throughput and low-cost parallel sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis of these mitogenome sequences was conducted to root the Sea of Japan lineage, which has a star-like phylogeny and had not been reliably rooted. The topologies of the bootstrap trees were investigated to determine whether the use of mitogenomes alleviated the random rooting effect. The mitogenome data successfully rooted the Sea of Japan lineage by alleviating the effect, which hindered phylogenetic analysis that used specific gene sequences. The reliable rooting of the lineage led to the discovery of a novel, northern lineage that expanded during an interglacial period with high bootstrap support. Furthermore, the finding of this lineage suggested the existence of additional glacial refugia and provided a new recent calibration point that revised the divergence time estimation between the Sea of Japan and Pacific Ocean lineages. This study illustrates the effectiveness of parallel mitogenome sequencing for solving the random rooting problem in phylogeographic studies.

Pollen grains are commonly found in ice cores, particularly those from mountain glaciers at low to middle latitudes. Because the release of pollen from flowers has a seasonality and varies among the plant species, pollen concentrations in ice cores are useful for distinguishing annual or seasonal layers and inferring past vegetation near glaciers. We analyzed major pollen grains in an 87-m-deep ice core drilled at the top of the Grigoriev Ice Cap (4563 m.a.s.l.) in the Tien Shan Mountains, Kyrgyz Republic. Microscopy showed that mainly five pollen taxa were contained in the ice core. Their abundance fluctuated with the depth of the core, indicating their seasonal deposition on the ice cap, while the seasonality of the stable isotopes was not particularly clear because of melting and refreezing signatures. Based on the pollen profiles, annual layers were determined back in time to 1780 AD at a depth of 63.6 m; at greater depth, they could not be distinguished due to ice layer thinning in the glacier. The pollen assemblages have gradually changed during the last 220 years and were particularly distinctive in the deeper part, suggesting the drastic change of vegetation in this region during the Holocene.

Abstract Outputs from two ensembles of atmospheric model simulations for 1951–98 define the influence of “realistic” land surface wetness on seasonal precipitation predictability in boreal summer. The ensembles consist of one forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the other forced with realistic land surface wetness as well as SSTs. Predictability was determined from correlations between the time series of simulated and observed precipitation. The ratio of forced variance to total variance determined potential predictability. Predictability occurred over some land areas adjacent to tropical oceans without land wetness forcing. On the other hand, because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, considerable parts of the land areas of the globe did not even show potential predictability with both land wetness and SST forcings. The use of land wetness forcing enhanced predictability over semiarid regions. Such semiarid regions are generally characterized by a negative correlation between fluxes of latent heat and sensible heat from the land surface, and are “water-regulating” areas where soil moisture plays a governing role in land–atmosphere interactions. Actual seasonal prediction may be possible in these regions if slowly varying surface conditions can be estimated in advance. In contrast, some land regions (e.g., south of the Sahel, the Amazon, and Indochina) showed little predictability despite high potential predictability. These regions are mostly characterized by a positive correlation between the surface fluxes, and are “radiation-regulating” areas where the atmosphere plays a leading role. Improvements in predictability for these regions may require further improvements in model physics.

Abstract The Himalayas are a key location for understanding centennial‐ to millennial‐scale variations in the Asian monsoon, yet few studies of the late Holocene have been conducted in this sensitive area. Direct evidence for shifts in monsoonal wind strength is often limited to marine proxy records, while terrestrial reconstructions (e.g. lake levels and spleothems) focus on precipitation. Here, we present the first evidence of terrestrial summer monsoon wind strength changes from Lake Rara, western Nepal, based on Mn/Ti ratios, a proxy for lake stratification. These data indicate a link between the Arabian Sea and the Himalayas, suggesting that centennial‐ to millennial‐scale changes in wind strength occurred synchronously. Distinct similarity is also observed between Lake Rara and the southern part of China, which may support previous suggestions that the southern part of China is influenced by Indian summer monsoon. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[1] In a previous study, past summer temperatures were reconstructed from melt features in the Belukha ice core, Siberian Altai. We evaluated the climatic representativeness of net accumulation and melt features by comparing two Belukha ice cores retrieved at neighboring sites by different institutions and dated by different methods. Melt features in both cores showed a significant correlation, but the trends of net accumulation were different between the cores. Melt features corresponded to the retreat rate of a glacier terminus in a neighboring mountain range. These findings demonstrate the spatial representativeness of melt features in the ice cores. We reevaluated an equation formulated for reconstructions of summer temperature, as used in a previous study, and found that it underestimates temperature. We propose an alternative equation to obtain more reliable summer temperatures from melt features and net accumulation records for the period from 1914 to 2003.