United States Department of Homeland Security

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) intended to reduce infectious contacts between persons form an integral part of plans to mitigate the impact of the next influenza pandemic. Although the potential benefits of NPIs are supported by mathematical models, the historical evidence for the impact of such interventions in past pandemics has not been systematically examined. We obtained data on the timing of 19 classes of NPI in 17 U.S. cities during the 1918 pandemic and tested the hypothesis that early implementation of multiple interventions was associated with reduced disease transmission. Consistent with this hypothesis, cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates approximately 50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (approximately 20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates. This finding was not unexpected, given that few cities maintained NPIs longer than 6 weeks in 1918. Early implementation of certain interventions, including closure of schools, churches, and theaters, was associated with lower peak death rates, but no single intervention showed an association with improved aggregate outcomes for the 1918 phase of the pandemic. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid implementation of multiple NPIs can significantly reduce influenza transmission, but that viral spread will be renewed upon relaxation of such measures.

In this paper we review and extend measures of political mobilization: the increasing extremity of beliefs, feelings, and behaviors in support of inter-group conflict. Building on previous research, we introduce the Activism and Radicalism Intention Scales (ARIS). The Activism Intention Scale assesses readiness to participate in legal and non-violent political action, whereas the Radicalism Intention Scale assesses readiness to participate in illegal or violent political action. In ad-hoc samples of U.S. and Ukrainian undergraduates, and in an Internet panel survey representative of the U.S. population, Activism and Radicalism intentions formed two correlated but distinguishable dimensions. The popular “conveyor belt” metaphor of radicalization (implying that activism leads easily to radicalism and that most radicals emerge from activism) found only mixed support in our results. Discussion suggests the potential usefulness of the ARIS for learning about how individuals move from political attitudes and beliefs to political action, including political violence and terrorism.

Previous studies have demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 is stable on surfaces for extended periods under indoor conditions. In the present study, simulated sunlight rapidly inactivated SARS-CoV-2 suspended in either simulated saliva or culture media and dried on stainless steel coupons. Ninety percent of infectious virus was inactivated every 6.8 minutes in simulated saliva and every 14.3 minutes in culture media when exposed to simulated sunlight representative of the summer solstice at 40°N latitude at sea level on a clear day. Significant inactivation also occurred, albeit at a slower rate, under lower simulated sunlight levels. The present study provides the first evidence that sunlight may rapidly inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, suggesting that persistence, and subsequently exposure risk, may vary significantly between indoor and outdoor environments. Additionally, these data indicate that natural sunlight may be effective as a disinfectant for contaminated nonporous materials.

New ground-based measurements of the cosmic-ray induced neutron flux and its energy distribution have been made at several locations across the United States using an extended-energy Bonner sphere spectrometer. The data cover over twelve decades of neutron energy, from meV to GeV. An expression to scale the flux to other locations has been developed from a fit to the altitude dependence of our measurements and an expression from the literature for the geomagnetic and solar-activity dependence of neutron monitor rates. In addition, an analytic expression is provided which fits the neutron spectrum above about 0.4 MeV. The neutron flux is important for estimating the soft-error rate in computer memories and recent computer logic devices.

Mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in clinical settings and public spaces is critically important to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases while effective vaccines and therapeutics are under development. SARS-CoV-2 transmission is thought to primarily occur through direct person-to-person transfer of infectious respiratory droplets or through aerosol-generating medical procedures. However, contact with contaminated surfaces may also play a significant role. In this context, understanding the factors contributing to SARS-CoV-2 persistence on surfaces will enable a more accurate estimation of the risk of contact transmission and inform mitigation strategies. To this end, we have developed a simple mathematical model that can be used to estimate virus decay on nonporous surfaces under a range of conditions and which may be utilized operationally to identify indoor environments in which the virus is most persistent.

BACKGROUND: New psychoactive substances constitute a growing and dynamic class of abused drugs in the United States. On July 12, 2016, a synthetic cannabinoid caused mass intoxication of 33 persons in one New York City neighborhood, in an event described in the popular press as a "zombie" outbreak because of the appearance of the intoxicated persons. METHODS: We obtained and tested serum, whole blood, and urine samples from 8 patients among the 18 who were transported to local hospitals; we also tested a sample of the herbal "incense" product "AK-47 24 Karat Gold," which was implicated in the outbreak. Samples were analyzed by means of liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry. RESULTS: The synthetic cannabinoid methyl 2-(1-(4-fluorobenzyl)-1H-indazole-3-carboxamido)-3-methylbutanoate (AMB-FUBINACA, also known as MMB-FUBINACA or FUB-AMB) was identified in AK-47 24 Karat Gold at a mean (±SD) concentration of 16.0±3.9 mg per gram. The de-esterified acid metabolite was found in the serum or whole blood of all eight patients, with concentrations ranging from 77 to 636 ng per milliliter. CONCLUSIONS: The potency of the synthetic cannabinoid identified in these analyses is consistent with strong depressant effects that account for the "zombielike" behavior reported in this mass intoxication. AMB-FUBINACA is an example of the emerging class of "ultrapotent" synthetic cannabinoids and poses a public health concern. Collaboration among clinical laboratory staff, health professionals, and law enforcement agencies facilitated the timely identification of the compound and allowed health authorities to take appropriate action.

This paper proposes a novel piezoelectric energy harvesting device driven by aeroelastic flutter vibrations of a simple pin connected flap and beam. The system is subject to a modal convergence flutter response above a critical wind speed and then oscillates in a limit cycle at higher wind speeds. A linearized analytical model of the device is derived to include the effects of the three-way coupling between the structural, unsteady aerodynamic, and electrical aspects of the system. A stability analysis of this model is presented to determine the frequency and wind speed at the onset of the flutter instability, which dictates the cut-in conditions for energy harvesting. In order to estimate the electrical output of the energy harvester, the amplitude and frequency of the flutter limit cycle are also investigated. The limit cycle behavior is simulated in the time domain with a semi-empirical nonlinear model that accounts for the effects of the dynamic stall over the flap at large deflections. Wind tunnel test results are presented to determine the empirical aerodynamic model coefficients and to characterize the power output and flutter frequency of the energy harvester as functions of incident wind speed.

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100‐ and 500‐year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100‐year tsunami is generated most frequently by far‐field sources in the Alaska‐Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500‐year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk.

Aerosols represent a potential transmission route of COVID-19. This study examined effect of simulated sunlight, relative humidity, and suspension matrix on stability of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols. Simulated sunlight and matrix significantly affected decay rate of the virus. Relative humidity alone did not affect the decay rate; however, minor interactions between relative humidity and other factors were observed. Mean decay rates (± SD) in simulated saliva, under simulated sunlight levels representative of late winter/early fall and summer were 0.121 ± 0.017 min-1 (90% loss, 19 minutes) and 0.306 ± 0.097 min-1 (90% loss, 8 minutes), respectively. Mean decay rate without simulated sunlight across all relative humidity levels was 0.008 ± 0.011 min-1 (90% loss, 286 minutes). These results suggest that the potential for aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 may be dependent on environmental conditions, particularly sunlight. These data may be useful to inform mitigation strategies to minimize the potential for aerosol transmission.

Ghost Wars provides an historical review of and perspective on the the Soviet invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and the resulting resistance The author discusses how a favorable environment was created conducive to the rise of Osama bin Laden and the Taliban and how the U.S. handled the rising threat of terrorism.

Mining accidents have occurred since the early days of mining. Therewere a total of 525 mining disasters (incidents with five or more fatalities) in both coal and metal/nonmetal mines from 1900 through 2007 in the United States, resulting in 12,823 fatalities. Most of these disasters involve mine rescue teams, which are specially trained to perform search and rescue operations in extremely hostile environments. Robots have a great potential to assist in these underground operations, searching ahead of rescue teams and reporting conditions that may be hazardous to the teams. When explosive conditions exist or when heavy smoke or unstable ground conditions prevent team members from entering a mine, robots can become an invaluable tool.

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

The Information Technology Laboratory (ITL) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) promotes the U.S. economy and public welfare by providing technical leadership for the nation's measurement and standards infrastructure.ITL develops tests, test methods, reference data, proof of concept implementations, and technical analysis to advance the development and productive use of information technology.ITL's responsibilities include the development of technical, physical, administrative, and management standards and guidelines for the cost-effective security and privacy of sensitive unclassified information in Federal computer systems.This Special Publication 800-series reports on ITL's research, guidance, and outreach efforts in computer security and its collaborative activities with industry, government, and academic organizations.Certain commercial entities, equipment, or materials may be identified in this document in order to describe an experimental procedure or concept adequately.Such identification is

Contamination warning systems (CWSs) are a promising approach for the mitigation of contamination risks in drinking water distribution systems. A critical aspect of the design of a CWS is the strategic placement of online sensors that rapidly detect contaminants. This paper reviews the array of optimization-based sensor placement strategies that have been recently proposed. These strategies are critiqued and several key issues are identified that need to be addressed in future work.

Recent evidence suggests that respiratory aerosols may play a role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our laboratory has previously demonstrated that simulated sunlight inactivated SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols and on surfaces. In the present study, we extend these findings to include the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols across a range of temperature, humidity, and simulated sunlight levels using an environmentally controlled rotating drum aerosol chamber. The results demonstrate that temperature, simulated sunlight, and humidity are all significant factors influencing the persistence of infectious SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols, but that simulated sunlight and temperature have a greater influence on decay than humidity across the range of conditions tested. The time needed for a 90% decrease in infectious virus ranged from 4.8 min at 40 °C, 20% relative humidity, and high intensity simulated sunlight representative of noon on a clear day on the summer solstice at 4°N latitude, to greater than two hours under conditions representative of those expected indoors or at night. These results suggest that the persistence of infectious SARS-CoV-2 in naturally occurring aerosols may be affected by environmental conditions, and that aerosolized virus could remain infectious for extended periods of time under some environmental conditions. The present study provides a comprehensive dataset on the influence of environmental parameters on the survival of SARS-CoV-2 in aerosols that can be utilized, along with data on viral shedding from infected individuals and the inhalational infectious dose, to inform future modeling and risk assessment efforts.

There is growing interest in the subject of resilience on the part of President Obama's Administration, as well as lively discussion regarding this issue in academic, business, and governmental circles. This article offers an operational framework that can prove useful to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and stakeholders at all levels, both public and private, as a basis for incorporating resilience into our infrastructure and society in order to make the nation safer.Three interrelated, mutually reinforcing objectives or end-states shape the approach to resilience: resistance, absorption, and restoration. If these objectives are realized as part of applying practical programs to critical systems and key functions, then these systems and functions will reflect resilience features appropriate to their individual needs.Resilience needs to be planned in advance—before systems are damaged and undesired consequences occur. Such planning can be challenging, given the different interpretations currently attached to “resilience," and the complexity inherent in the concept. Planners need to account for the fact that resilience is both broad and deep. It encompasses “hard" systems (such as infrastructure and assets) as well as “soft" systems (such as communities and individuals).A visually direct technique for assisting resilience planners is to establish a “resilience profile" for key functions within critical systems. Such a profile is delimited by three design parameters: function, latency limit, and minimum performance boundary. Investment strategies can be developed using these profiles to identify cost-effective ways and means to incorporate resilience capabilities across the homeland security mission spectrum for the system in question. Solutions need to be practiced and tested.Operationalizing the resilience framework presented in this article will not be easy. The potential payoff, however, in terms of the enhanced economic, individual, and societal security that such resilience provides can be immense.

On 28 December 2011, the US Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology, Cyber Security Division released "The Menlo Report: Ethical Principles Guiding Information and Communication Technology Research" to the Federal Register to elicit the public's feedback. In this article, the authors briefly describe the road to this milestone, summarize the report and its companion document, and describe the next steps we should take as a community.

Abstract This article explores those factors that shape a political organization’s choice of tactics in political mobilization with a particular focus on the influence of gender ideology on the choice of different type of contentious action. To understand why political organizations engaging in contentious politics choose to employ violent tactics, nonviolent tactics, or a mixture of both, current scholarship has tended to focus on factors such as relationship with the government, external support, and religious or leftist ideology. Far less attention has been given to the role of an organization’s ideology relating to gender when predicting its behavior. In addition, much of the analysis of contentious activity has analyzed the use of violence or protest separately and rarely examines the choice of a mixed strategy. We employ a time-series multinomial logistic regression analysis to examine the Middle East Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior dataset (MAROB), including data over 24 years on 104 ethno-political organizations that have used a range of tactics including protest, violence, and/or a mix of the two, to investigate organizational and state-level variables that lead organizations to choose different strategies. We find that a number of variables can influence a movement’s choice to engage in one strategy over another. Gender-inclusive ideology makes an organization more likely to engage in protest and less likely to choose a violent or mixed strategy.

The epidemic and economic impacts of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spread and control were examined by using epidemic simulation and economic (epinomic) optimization models. The simulated index herd was a ≥2,000 cow dairy located in California. Simulated disease spread was limited to California; however, economic impact was assessed throughout the United States and included international trade effects. Five index case detection delays were examined, which ranged from 7 to 22 days. The simulated median number of infected premises (IP) ranged from approximately 15 to 745, increasing as the detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days. Similarly, the median number of herds under quarantine increased from approximately 680 to 6,200, whereas animals slaughtered went from approximately 8,700 to 260,400 for detection delays of 7-22 days, respectively. The median economic impact of an FMD outbreak in California was estimated to result in national agriculture welfare losses of $2.3-$69.0 billion as detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days, respectively. If assuming a detection delay of 21 days, it was estimated that, for every additional hr of delay, the impact would be an additional approximately 2,000 animals slaughtered and an additional economic loss of $565 million. These findings underline the critical importance that the United States has an effective early detection system in place before an introduction of FMDV if it hopes to avoid dramatic losses to both livestock and the economy.

Research Summary: This paper reviews and evaluates the existing (and limited) evidence that increases in incarceration have affected the ability of residential neighborhoods to perform their traditional social control functions. It suggests that, although comparatively weak, the evidence points to the increases in the level and clustering in social and geographic space of incarceration as contributing to changes in the social organization of affected communities by weakening family formation, labor force attachments, and patterns of social interaction among residents. At the same time, however, the paper does find support for the contention that incarceration leads to reductions in crime in affected communities. Policy Implications: To the extent that mass incarceration disrupts patterns of social interaction, weakens community social organization, and decreases the stigma of imprisonment, its longer‐run effects may be to reduce its effectiveness.