Novo Nordisk (Finland)

BACKGROUND: Establishing cardiovascular safety of new therapies for type 2 diabetes is important. Safety data are available for the subcutaneous form of the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist semaglutide but are needed for oral semaglutide. METHODS: We assessed cardiovascular outcomes of once-daily oral semaglutide in an event-driven, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving patients at high cardiovascular risk (age of ≥50 years with established cardiovascular or chronic kidney disease, or age of ≥60 years with cardiovascular risk factors only). The primary outcome in a time-to-event analysis was the first occurrence of a major adverse cardiovascular event (death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke). The trial was designed to rule out 80% excess cardiovascular risk as compared with placebo (noninferiority margin of 1.8 for the upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval for the hazard ratio for the primary outcome). RESULTS: A total of 3183 patients were randomly assigned to receive oral semaglutide or placebo. The mean age of the patients was 66 years; 2695 patients (84.7%) were 50 years of age or older and had cardiovascular or chronic kidney disease. The median time in the trial was 15.9 months. Major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in 61 of 1591 patients (3.8%) in the oral semaglutide group and 76 of 1592 (4.8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57 to 1.11; P<0.001 for noninferiority). Results for components of the primary outcome were as follows: death from cardiovascular causes, 15 of 1591 patients (0.9%) in the oral semaglutide group and 30 of 1592 (1.9%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.92); nonfatal myocardial infarction, 37 of 1591 patients (2.3%) and 31 of 1592 (1.9%), respectively (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.90); and nonfatal stroke, 12 of 1591 patients (0.8%) and 16 of 1592 (1.0%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.35 to 1.57). Death from any cause occurred in 23 of 1591 patients (1.4%) in the oral semaglutide group and 45 of 1592 (2.8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.84). Gastrointestinal adverse events leading to discontinuation of oral semaglutide or placebo were more common with oral semaglutide. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial involving patients with type 2 diabetes, the cardiovascular risk profile of oral semaglutide was not inferior to that of placebo. (Funded by Novo Nordisk; PIONEER 6 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02692716.).

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a chronic disease with serious health consequences, but weight loss is difficult to maintain through lifestyle intervention alone. Liraglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue, has been shown to have potential benefit for weight management at a once-daily dose of 3.0 mg, injected subcutaneously. METHODS: We conducted a 56-week, double-blind trial involving 3731 patients who did not have type 2 diabetes and who had a body-mass index (BMI; the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of at least 30 or a BMI of at least 27 if they had treated or untreated dyslipidemia or hypertension. We randomly assigned patients in a 2:1 ratio to receive once-daily subcutaneous injections of liraglutide at a dose of 3.0 mg (2487 patients) or placebo (1244 patients); both groups received counseling on lifestyle modification. The coprimary end points were the change in body weight and the proportions of patients losing at least 5% and more than 10% of their initial body weight. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean (±SD) age of the patients was 45.1±12.0 years, the mean weight was 106.2±21.4 kg, and the mean BMI was 38.3±6.4; a total of 78.5% of the patients were women and 61.2% had prediabetes. At week 56, patients in the liraglutide group had lost a mean of 8.4±7.3 kg of body weight, and those in the placebo group had lost a mean of 2.8±6.5 kg (a difference of -5.6 kg; 95% confidence interval, -6.0 to -5.1; P<0.001, with last-observation-carried-forward imputation). A total of 63.2% of the patients in the liraglutide group as compared with 27.1% in the placebo group lost at least 5% of their body weight (P<0.001), and 33.1% and 10.6%, respectively, lost more than 10% of their body weight (P<0.001). The most frequently reported adverse events with liraglutide were mild or moderate nausea and diarrhea. Serious events occurred in 6.2% of the patients in the liraglutide group and in 5.0% of the patients in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, 3.0 mg of liraglutide, as an adjunct to diet and exercise, was associated with reduced body weight and improved metabolic control. (Funded by Novo Nordisk; SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes NN8022-1839 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01272219.).

Genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) are valuable tools to study metabolism and provide a scaffold for the integrative analysis of omics data. Researchers have developed increasingly comprehensive human GEMs, but the disconnect among different model sources and versions impedes further progress. We therefore integrated and extensively curated the most recent human metabolic models to construct a consensus GEM, Human1. We demonstrated the versatility of Human1 through the generation and analysis of cell- and tissue-specific models using transcriptomic, proteomic, and kinetic data. We also present an accompanying web portal, Metabolic Atlas (https://www.metabolicatlas.org/), which facilitates further exploration and visualization of Human1 content. Human1 was created using a version-controlled, open-source model development framework to enable community-driven curation and refinement. This framework allows Human1 to be an evolving shared resource for future studies of human health and disease.

Conjugational transfer of the TOL plasmid (pWWO) was analyzed in a flow chamber biofilm community engaged in benzyl alcohol degradation. The community consisted of three species, Pseudomonas putida RI, Acinetobacter sp. strain C6, and an unidentified isolate, D8. Only P. putida RI could act as a recipient for the TOL plasmid. Cells carrying a chromosomally integrated lacIq gene and a lacp-gfp-tagged version of the TOL plasmid were introduced as donor strains in the biofilm community after its formation. The occurrence of plasmid-carrying cells was analyzed by viable-count-based enumeration of donors and transconjugants. Upon transfer of the plasmids to the recipient cells, expression of green fluorescence was activated as a result of zygotic induction of the gfp gene. This allowed a direct in situ identification of cells receiving the gfp-tagged version of the TOL plasmid. Our data suggest that the frequency of horizontal plasmid transfer was low, and growth (vertical transfer) of the recipient strain was the major cause of plasmid establishment in the biofilm community. Employment of scanning confocal laser microscopy on fixed biofilms, combined with simultaneous identification of P. putida cells and transconjugants by 16S rRNA hybridization and expression of green fluorescence, showed that transconjugants were always associated with noninfected P. putida RI recipient microcolonies. Pure colonies of transconjugants were never observed, indicating that proliferation of transconjugant cells preferentially took place on preexisting P. putida RI microcolonies in the biofilm.

Serum urate has been implicated in hypertension and cardiovascular disease, but it is not known whether it is exerting a causal effect. To investigate this, we performed Mendelian randomization analysis using data from UK Biobank, Million Veterans Program and genome-wide association study consortia, and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. The main Mendelian randomization analyses showed that every 1-SD increase in genetically predicted serum urate was associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.10–1.30]; P =4×10 −5 ), peripheral artery disease (1.12 [95% CI, 1.03–1.21]; P =9×10 −3 ), and stroke (1.11 [95% CI, 1.05–1.18]; P =2×10 −4 ). In Mendelian randomization mediation analyses, elevated blood pressure was estimated to mediate approximately one-third of the effect of urate on cardiovascular disease risk. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials showed a favorable effect of urate-lowering treatment on systolic blood pressure (mean difference, −2.55 mm Hg [95% CI, −4.06 to −1.05]; P =1×10 −3 ) and major adverse cardiovascular events in those with previous cardiovascular disease (odds ratio, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.22–0.73]; P =3×10 −3 ) but no significant effect on major adverse cardiovascular events in all individuals (odds ratio, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.44–1.03]; P =0.07). In summary, these Mendelian randomization and clinical trial data support an effect of higher serum urate on increasing blood pressure, which may mediate a consequent effect on cardiovascular disease risk. High-quality trials are necessary to provide definitive evidence on the specific clinical contexts where urate lowering may be of cardiovascular benefit.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the EndoC-βH1 cell line as a model for human beta cells and evaluate its beta cell functionality, focusing on insulin secretion, proliferation, apoptosis and ER stress, with the objective to assess its potential as a screening platform for identification of novel anti-diabetic drug candidates. METHODS: EndoC-βH1 was transplanted into mice for validation of in vivo functionality. Insulin secretion was evaluated in cells cultured as monolayer and as pseudoislets, as well as in diabetic mice. Cytokine induced apoptosis, glucolipotoxicity, and ER stress responses were assessed. Beta cell relevant mRNA and protein expression were investigated by qPCR and antibody staining. Hundreds of proteins or peptides were tested for their effect on insulin secretion and proliferation. RESULTS: Transplantation of EndoC-βH1 cells restored normoglycemia in streptozotocin induced diabetic mice. Both in vitro and in vivo, we observed a clear insulin response to glucose, and, in vitro, we found a significant increase in insulin secretion from EndoC-βH1 pseudoislets compared to monolayer cultures for both glucose and incretins. Apoptosis and ER stress were inducible in the cells and caspase 3/7 activity was elevated in response to cytokines, but not affected by the saturated fatty acid palmitate. By screening of various proteins and peptides, we found Bombesin (BB) receptor agonists and Pituitary Adenylate Cyclase-Activating Polypeptides (PACAP) to significantly induce insulin secretion and the proteins SerpinA6, STC1, and APOH to significantly stimulate proliferation. ER stress was readily induced by Tunicamycin and resulted in a reduction of insulin mRNA. Somatostatin (SST) was found to be expressed by 1% of the cells and manipulation of the SST receptors was found to significantly affect insulin secretion. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the EndoC-βH1 cells strongly resemble human islet beta cells in terms of glucose and incretin stimulated insulin secretion capabilities. The cell line has an active cytokine induced caspase 3/7 apoptotic pathway and is responsive to ER stress initiation factors. The cells' ability to proliferate can be further increased by already known compounds as well as by novel peptides and proteins. Based on its robust performance during the functionality assessment assays, the EndoC-βH1 cell line was successfully used as a screening platform for identification of novel anti-diabetic drug candidates.

Abstract Stroke is the second leading cause of death with substantial unmet therapeutic needs. To identify potential stroke therapeutic targets, we estimate the causal effects of 308 plasma proteins on stroke outcomes in a two-sample Mendelian randomization framework and assess mediation effects by stroke risk factors. We find associations between genetically predicted plasma levels of six proteins and stroke ( P ≤ 1.62 × 10 −4 ). The genetic associations with stroke colocalize (Posterior Probability &gt;0.7) with the genetic associations of four proteins (TFPI, TMPRSS5, CD6, CD40). Mendelian randomization supports atrial fibrillation, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, white matter hyperintensities and type 2 diabetes as stroke risk factors ( P ≤ 0.0071). Body mass index, white matter hyperintensity and atrial fibrillation appear to mediate the TFPI, IL6RA, TMPRSS5 associations with stroke. Furthermore, thirty-six proteins are associated with one or more of these risk factors using Mendelian randomization. Our results highlight causal pathways and potential therapeutic targets for stroke.

Abstract The UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project (UKB-PPP) is a collaboration between the UK Biobank (UKB) and thirteen biopharmaceutical companies characterising the plasma proteomic profiles of 54,306 UKB participants. Here, we describe results from the first phase of UKB-PPP, including protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) mapping of 1,463 proteins that identifies 10,248 primary genetic associations, of which 85% are newly discovered. We also identify independent secondary associations in 92% of cis and 29% of trans loci, expanding the catalogue of genetic instruments for downstream analyses. The study provides an updated characterisation of the genetic architecture of the plasma proteome, leveraging population-scale proteomics to provide novel, extensive insights into trans pQTLs across multiple biological domains. We highlight genetic influences on ligand-receptor interactions and pathway perturbations across a diverse collection of cytokines and complement proteins, and illustrate long-range epistatic effects of ABO blood group and FUT2 secretor status on proteins with gastrointestinal tissue-enriched expression. We demonstrate the utility of these data for drug target discovery by extending the genetic proxied effect of PCSK9 levels on lipid concentrations, cardio- and cerebro-vascular diseases, and additionally disentangle specific genes and proteins perturbed at COVID-19 susceptibility loci. This public-private partnership provides the scientific community with an open-access proteomics resource of unprecedented breadth and depth to help elucidate biological mechanisms underlying genetic discoveries and accelerate the development of novel biomarkers and therapeutics.

A diverse set of biological processes have been implicated in the pathophysiology of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias. However, there is limited understanding of the peripheral biological mechanisms relevant in the earliest phases of the disease. Here, we used a large-scale proteomics platform to examine the association of 4877 plasma proteins with 25-year dementia risk in 10,981 middle-aged adults. We found 32 dementia-associated plasma proteins that were involved in proteostasis, immunity, synaptic function, and extracellular matrix organization. We then replicated the association between 15 of these proteins and clinically relevant neurocognitive outcomes in two independent cohorts. We demonstrated that 12 of these 32 dementia-associated proteins were associated with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of AD, neurodegeneration, or neuroinflammation. We found that eight of these candidate protein markers were abnormally expressed in human postmortem brain tissue from patients with AD, although some of the proteins that were most strongly associated with dementia risk, such as GDF15, were not detected in these brain tissue samples. Using network analyses, we found a protein signature for dementia risk that was characterized by dysregulation of specific immune and proteostasis/autophagy pathways in adults in midlife ~20 years before dementia onset, as well as abnormal coagulation and complement signaling ~10 years before dementia onset. Bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization genetically validated nine of our candidate proteins as markers of AD in midlife and inferred causality of SERPINA3 in AD pathogenesis. Last, we prioritized a set of candidate markers for AD and dementia risk prediction in midlife.

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With the increase in large multimodal cohorts and high-throughput technologies, the potential for discovering novel biomarkers is no longer limited by data set size. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning approaches have been developed to detect novel biomarkers and interactions in complex data sets. We discuss exemplar uses and evaluate current applications and limitations of AI to discover novel biomarkers. Remaining challenges include a lack of diversity in the data sets available, the sheer complexity of investigating interactions, the invasiveness and cost of some biomarkers, and poor reporting in some studies. Overcoming these challenges will involve collecting data from underrepresented populations, developing more powerful AI approaches, validating the use of noninvasive biomarkers, and adhering to reporting guidelines. By harnessing rich multimodal data through AI approaches and international collaborative innovation, we are well positioned to identify clinically useful biomarkers that are accurate, generalizable, unbiased, and acceptable in clinical practice. HIGHLIGHTS: Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches may accelerate dementia biomarker discovery. Remaining challenges include data set suitability due to size and bias in cohort selection. Multimodal data, diverse data sets, improved machine learning approaches, real-world validation, and interdisciplinary collaboration are required.

Observational studies exploring whether there is a nonlinear effect of blood pressure on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are hindered by confounding. This limitation can be overcome by leveraging randomly allocated genetic variants in nonlinear Mendelian randomization analyses. Based on their association with blood pressure traits in a genome-wide association study of 299 024 European ancestry individuals, we selected 253 genetic variants to proxy the effect of modifying systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Considering the outcomes of incident coronary artery disease, stroke and the combined outcome of CVD, linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization analyses were performed on 255 714 European ancestry participants without a history of CVD or antihypertensive medication use. There was no evidence favoring nonlinear relationships of genetically proxied systolic and diastolic blood pressure with the cardiovascular outcomes over linear relationships. For every 10-mm Hg increase in genetically proxied systolic blood pressure, risk of incident CVD increased by 49% (hazard ratio, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.38–1.61]), with similar estimates obtained for coronary artery disease (hazard ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.38–1.63]) and stroke (hazard ratio, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.22–1.70]). Genetically proxied blood pressure had a similar relationship with CVD in men and women. These findings provide evidence to support that even for individuals who do not have elevated blood pressure, public health interventions achieving persistent blood pressure reduction will be of considerable benefit in the primary prevention of CVD.

Elucidating the causes of stroke is key to developing effective preventive strategies. The Mendelian randomization approach leverages genetic variants related to an exposure of interest to investigate the effects of varying that exposure on disease risk. The random allocation of genetic variants at conception reduces confounding from environmental factors and thus strengthens causal inference, analogous to treatment allocation in a randomized controlled trial. With the recent explosion in the availability of human genetic data, Mendelian randomization has proven a valuable tool for studying risk factors for stroke. In this review, we provide an overview of recent developments in the application of Mendelian randomization to unravel the pathophysiology of stroke subtypes and identify therapeutic targets for clinical translation. The approach has offered novel insight into the differential effects of risk factors and antihypertensive, lipid-lowering, and anticoagulant drug classes on risk of stroke subtypes. Analyses have further facilitated the prioritization of novel drug targets, such as for inflammatory pathways underlying large artery atherosclerotic stroke and for the coagulation cascade that contributes to cardioembolic stroke. With continued methodological advances coupled with the rapidly increasing availability of genetic data related to a broad range of stroke phenotypes, the potential for Mendelian randomization in this context is expanding exponentially.

Background: The class I cytokine IL-21 exerts pleiotropic effects on innate and adaptive immunity. Results: We obtained the crystal structure of the partially glycosylated IL-21 receptor (IL-21R) bound to IL-21. Conclusion: A sugar chain is an integral part of IL-21R. Significance: This structure offers an insight into the putative role of the class I cytokine receptor signature motif. IL-21 is a class I cytokine that exerts pleiotropic effects on both innate and adaptive immune responses. It signals through a heterodimeric receptor complex consisting of the IL-21 receptor (IL-21R) and the common -chain. A hallmark of the class I cytokine receptors is the class I cytokine receptor signature motif (WSXWS). The exact role of this motif has not been determined yet; however, it has been implicated in diverse functions, including ligand binding, receptor internalization, proper folding, and export, as well as signal transduction. Furthermore, the WXXW motif is known to be a consensus sequence for C-mannosylation. Here, we present the crystal structure of IL-21 bound to IL-21R and reveal that the WSXWS motif of IL-21R is C-mannosylated at the first tryptophan. We furthermore demonstrate that a sugar chain bridges the two fibronectin domains that constitute the extracellular domain of IL-21R and anchors at the WSXWS motif through an extensive hydrogen bonding network, including mannosylation. The glycan thus transforms the V-shaped receptor into an A-frame. This finding offers a novel structural explanation of the role of the class I cytokine signature motif.

Importance: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in ambulatory COVID-19 is controversial. In addition, the association of vaccination with COVID-19-related VTE and relevant clinical and genetic risk factors remain to be elucidated. Objective: To quantify the association between ambulatory COVID-19 and short-term risk of VTE, study the potential protective role of vaccination, and investigate clinical and genetic risk factors for post-COVID-19 VTE. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study of patients with COVID-19 from UK Biobank included participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection that was confirmed by a positive polymerase chain test reaction result between March 1, 2020, and September 3, 2021, who were then propensity score matched to COVID-19-naive people during the same period. Participants with a history of VTE who used antithrombotic drugs (1 year before index dates) or tested positive in hospital were excluded. Exposures: First infection with SARS-CoV-2, age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, obesity, vaccination status, and inherited thrombophilia. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite VTE, including deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism, which occurred 30 days after the infection. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were calculated using cause-specific Cox models. Results: In 18 818 outpatients with COVID-19 (10 580 women [56.2%]; mean [SD] age, 64.3 [8.0] years) and 93 179 matched uninfected participants (52 177 women [56.0%]; mean [SD] age, 64.3 [7.9] years), the infection was associated with an increased risk of VTE in 30 days (incidence rate of 50.99 and 2.37 per 1000 person-years for infected and uninfected people, respectively; HR, 21.42; 95% CI, 12.63-36.31). However, risk was substantially attenuated among the fully vaccinated (HR, 5.95; 95% CI, 1.82-19.5; interaction P = .02). In patients with COVID-19, older age, male sex, and obesity were independently associated with higher risk, with adjusted HRs of 1.87 (95% CI, 1.50-2.33) per 10 years, 1.69 (95% CI, 1.30-2.19), and 1.83 (95% CI, 1.28-2.61), respectively. Further, inherited thrombophilia was associated with an HR of 2.05 (95% CI, 1.15-3.66) for post-COVID-19 VTE. Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study of patients with COVID-19, ambulatory COVID-19 was associated with a substantially increased risk of incident VTE, but this risk was greatly reduced in fully vaccinated people with breakthrough infection. Older age, male sex, and obesity were clinical risk factors for post-COVID-19 VTE; factor V Leiden thrombophilia was additionally associated with double the risk, comparable with the risk of 10-year aging. These findings may reinforce the need for vaccination, inform VTE risk stratification, and call for targeted VTE prophylaxis strategies for unvaccinated outpatients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND There is an unmet need for a safer and more effective treatment for obesity. This study assessed the effects of licogliflozin, a dual inhibitor of sodium‐glucose co‐transporter (SGLT) 1/2, on body weight, metabolic parameters and incretin hormones in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and/or obesity. METHODS Patients with obesity (BMI, 35‐50 kg/m 2 ) were enrolled into a 12‐week study (N = 88; licogliflozin 150 mg q.d.). Patients with T2DM were enrolled into a second, two‐part study, comprising a single‐dose cross‐over study (N = 12; 2.5 − 300 mg) and a 14‐day dosing study (N = 30; 15 mg q.d). Primary endpoints included effects on body weight, effects on glucose, safety and tolerability. Secondary endpoints included urinary glucose excretion (UGE 24 ) and pharmacokinetics, while exploratory endpoints assessed the effects on incretin hormones (total GLP‐1, PYY 3‐36 , and GIP), insulin and glucagon. RESULTS Treatment with licogliflozin 150 mg q.d. for 12 weeks in patients with obesity significantly reduced body weight by 5.7% vs placebo ( P &lt; 0.001) and improved metabolic parameters such as significantly reduced postprandial glucose excursion (21%; P &lt; 0.001), reduced insulin levels (80%; P &lt; 0.001) and increased glucagon (59%; P &lt; 0.001). In patients with T2DM, a single dose of licogliflozin 300 mg in the morning prior to an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) remarkably reduced glucose excursion by 93% ( P &lt; 0.001; incremental AUC 0‐4h ) and suppressed insulin by 90% ( P &lt; 0.01; incremental AUC 0‐4h ). Treatment with licogliflozin 15 mg q.d. for 14 days reduced 24‐hour average glucose levels by 26% (41 mg/dL; P &lt; 0.001) and increased UGE 24 to 100 g ( P &lt; 0.001) in patients with T2DM. In addition, this treatment regimen significantly increased total GLP‐1 by 54% ( P &lt; 0.001) and PYY 3‐36 by 67% ( P &lt; 0.05) post OGTT vs placebo, while significantly reducing GIP levels by 53% ( P &lt; 0.001). Treatment with licogliflozin was generally safe and well tolerated. Diarrhea (increased numbers of loose stool) was the most common adverse event in all studies (90% with licogliflozin vs 25% with placebo in the 12‐week study), while a lower incidence of flatulence, abdominal pain and abdominal distension (25%‐43% with licogliflozin vs 9%‐11% with placebo in the 12‐week study) were among the other gastrointestinal events reported. CONCLUSION Licogliflozin treatment (1‐84 days) leads to significant weight loss and favourable changes in a variety of metabolic parameters and incretin hormones. Dual inhibition of SGLT1/2 with licogliflozin in the gut and kidneys is an attractive strategy for treating obesity and diabetes.

Background: Epigenetic clocks have been associated with cancer risk in several observational studies. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether they play a causal role in cancer risk or if they act as a non-causal biomarker. Methods: We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study to examine the genetically predicted effects of epigenetic age acceleration as measured by HannumAge (nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)), Horvath Intrinsic Age (24 SNPs), PhenoAge (11 SNPs), and GrimAge (4 SNPs) on multiple cancers (i.e. breast, prostate, colorectal, ovarian and lung cancer). We obtained genome-wide association data for biological ageing from a meta-analysis (N = 34,710), and for cancer from the UK Biobank (N cases = 2671-13,879; N controls = 173,493-372,016), FinnGen (N cases = 719-8401; N controls = 74,685-174,006) and several international cancer genetic consortia (N cases = 11,348-122,977; N controls = 15,861-105,974). Main analyses were performed using multiplicative random effects inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR. Individual study estimates were pooled using fixed effect meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses included MR-Egger, weighted median, weighted mode and Causal Analysis using Summary Effect Estimates (CAUSE) methods, which are robust to some of the assumptions of the IVW approach. Results: Meta-analysed IVW MR findings suggested that higher GrimAge acceleration increased the risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 1.12 per year increase in GrimAge acceleration, 95% CI 1.04-1.20, p = 0.002). The direction of the genetically predicted effects was consistent across main and sensitivity MR analyses. Among subtypes, the genetically predicted effect of GrimAge acceleration was greater for colon cancer (IVW OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.09-1.21, p = 0.006), than rectal cancer (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI 0.97-1.13, p = 0.24). Results were less consistent for associations between other epigenetic clocks and cancers. Conclusions: GrimAge acceleration may increase the risk of colorectal cancer. Findings for other clocks and cancers were inconsistent. Further work is required to investigate the potential mechanisms underlying the results. Funding: FMB was supported by a Wellcome Trust PhD studentship in Molecular, Genetic and Lifecourse Epidemiology (224982/Z/22/Z which is part of grant 218495/Z/19/Z). KKT was supported by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme) and by the Hellenic Republic's Operational Programme 'Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship & Innovation' (OΠΣ 5047228). PH was supported by Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019). RMM was supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol and by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). RMM is a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator (NIHR202411). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. GDS and CLR were supported by the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1 and MC_UU_00011/5, respectively) and by a Cancer Research UK (C18281/A29019) programme grant (the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme). REM was supported by an Alzheimer's Society project grant (AS-PG-19b-010) and NIH grant (U01 AG-18-018, PI: Steve Horvath). RCR is a de Pass Vice Chancellor's Research Fellow at the University of Bristol.

BACKGROUND: Higher body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, but the extent to which this is mediated by blood pressure, diabetes, lipid traits, and smoking is not fully understood. METHODS: Using consortia and UK Biobank genetic association summary data from 140,595 to 898,130 participants predominantly of European ancestry, Mendelian randomization mediation analysis was performed to investigate the degree to which systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes, lipid traits, and smoking mediated an effect of BMI and WHR on the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD) and stroke. RESULTS: The odds ratio of CAD per 1-standard deviation increase in genetically predicted BMI was 1.49 (95% CI 1.39 to 1.60). This attenuated to 1.34 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.45) after adjusting for genetically predicted SBP (proportion mediated 27%, 95% CI 3% to 50%), to 1.27 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.37) after adjusting for genetically predicted diabetes (41% mediated, 95% CI 18% to 63%), to 1.47 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.59) after adjusting for genetically predicted lipids (3% mediated, 95% -23% to 29%), and to 1.46 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.58) after adjusting for genetically predicted smoking (6% mediated, 95% CI -20% to 32%). Adjusting for all the mediators together, the estimate attenuated to 1.14 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.26; 66% mediated, 95% CI 42% to 91%). A similar pattern was observed when considering genetically predicted WHR as the exposure, and PAD or stroke as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Measures to reduce obesity will lower the risk of cardiovascular disease primarily by impacting downstream metabolic risk factors, particularly diabetes and hypertension. Reduction of obesity prevalence alongside control and management of its mediators is likely to be most effective for minimizing the burden of obesity.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is increasing in prevalence and has a severe impact on patients' lives. However, our understanding of biomarkers driving OA risk remains limited. We developed a model predicting the five-year risk of OA diagnosis, integrating retrospective clinical, lifestyle and biomarker data from the UK Biobank (19,120 patients with OA, ROC-AUC: 0.72, 95%CI (0.71-0.73)). Higher age, BMI and prescription of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs contributed most to increased OA risk prediction ahead of diagnosis. We identified 14 subgroups of OA risk profiles. These subgroups were validated in an independent set of patients evaluating the 11-year OA risk, with 88% of patients being uniquely assigned to one of the 14 subgroups. Individual OA risk profiles were characterised by personalised biomarkers. Omics integration demonstrated the predictive importance of key OA genes and pathways (e.g., GDF5 and TGF-β signalling) and OA-specific biomarkers (e.g., CRTAC1 and COL9A1). In summary, this work identifies opportunities for personalised OA prevention and insights into its underlying pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND: Interleukin 6 (IL-6) signaling is being investigated as a therapeutic target for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). While changes in circulating high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) are used as a marker of IL-6 signaling, it is not known whether there is effect heterogeneity in relation to baseline hsCRP levels or other cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of this study was to explore the association of genetically predicted IL-6 signaling with CVD risk across populations stratified by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: Among 397,060 White British UK Biobank participants without known CVD at baseline, we calculated a genetic risk score for IL-6 receptor (IL-6R)-mediated signaling, composed of 26 variants at the IL6R gene locus. We then applied linear and non-linear Mendelian randomization analyses exploring associations with a combined endpoint of incident coronary artery disease, ischemic stroke, peripheral artery disease, aortic aneurysm, and cardiovascular death stratifying by baseline hsCRP levels and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: The study participants (median age 59 years, 53.9% females) were followed-up for a median of 8.8 years, over which time a total of 46,033 incident cardiovascular events occurred. Genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling activity was associated with higher CVD risk (hazard ratio per 1-mg/dL increment in absolute hsCRP levels: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.06-1.17). The increase in CVD risk was linearly related to baseline absolute hsCRP levels. There was no evidence of heterogeneity in the association of genetically predicted IL-6R-mediated signaling with CVD risk when stratifying the population by sex, age, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, or systolic blood pressure, but there was evidence of greater associations in individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥ 160 mg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: Any benefit of inhibiting IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction is likely to be proportional to absolute reductions in hsCRP levels. Therapeutic inhibition of IL-6 signaling for CVD risk reduction should therefore prioritize those individuals with the highest baseline levels of hsCRP.