Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria La Fe

The last decade has seen a sharp increase in the number of scientific publications describing physiological and pathological functions of extracellular vesicles (EVs), a collective term covering various subtypes of cell-released, membranous structures, called exosomes, microvesicles, microparticles, ectosomes, oncosomes, apoptotic bodies, and many other names. However, specific issues arise when working with these entities, whose size and amount often make them difficult to obtain as relatively pure preparations, and to characterize properly. The International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) proposed Minimal Information for Studies of Extracellular Vesicles ("MISEV") guidelines for the field in 2014. We now update these "MISEV2014" guidelines based on evolution of the collective knowledge in the last four years. An important point to consider is that ascribing a specific function to EVs in general, or to subtypes of EVs, requires reporting of specific information beyond mere description of function in a crude, potentially contaminated, and heterogeneous preparation. For example, claims that exosomes are endowed with exquisite and specific activities remain difficult to support experimentally, given our still limited knowledge of their specific molecular machineries of biogenesis and release, as compared with other biophysically similar EVs. The MISEV2018 guidelines include tables and outlines of suggested protocols and steps to follow to document specific EV-associated functional activities. Finally, a checklist is provided with summaries of key points.

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Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/'proxy' AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele.

Extracellular vesicles (EVs), such as exosomes and microvesicles, are released by different cell types and participate in physiological and pathophysiological processes. EVs mediate intercellular communication as cell-derived extracellular signalling organelles that transmit specific information from their cell of origin to their target cells. As a result of these properties, EVs of defined cell types may serve as novel tools for various therapeutic approaches, including (a) anti-tumour therapy, (b) pathogen vaccination, (c) immune-modulatory and regenerative therapies and (d) drug delivery. The translation of EVs into clinical therapies requires the categorization of EV-based therapeutics in compliance with existing regulatory frameworks. As the classification defines subsequent requirements for manufacturing, quality control and clinical investigation, it is of major importance to define whether EVs are considered the active drug components or primarily serve as drug delivery vehicles. For an effective and particularly safe translation of EV-based therapies into clinical practice, a high level of cooperation between researchers, clinicians and competent authorities is essential. In this position statement, basic and clinical scientists, as members of the International Society for Extracellular Vesicles (ISEV) and of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) program of the European Union, namely European Network on Microvesicles and Exosomes in Health and Disease (ME-HaD), summarize recent developments and the current knowledge of EV-based therapies. Aspects of safety and regulatory requirements that must be considered for pharmaceutical manufacturing and clinical application are highlighted. Production and quality control processes are discussed. Strategies to promote the therapeutic application of EVs in future clinical studies are addressed.

Abstract The genetic make-up of an individual contributes to the susceptibility and response to viral infection. Although environmental, clinical and social factors have a role in the chance of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and the severity of COVID-19 1,2 , host genetics may also be important. Identifying host-specific genetic factors may reveal biological mechanisms of therapeutic relevance and clarify causal relationships of modifiable environmental risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection and outcomes. We formed a global network of researchers to investigate the role of human genetics in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we describe the results of three genome-wide association meta-analyses that consist of up to 49,562 patients with COVID-19 from 46 studies across 19 countries. We report 13 genome-wide significant loci that are associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or severe manifestations of COVID-19. Several of these loci correspond to previously documented associations to lung or autoimmune and inflammatory diseases 3–7 . They also represent potentially actionable mechanisms in response to infection. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role for smoking and body-mass index for severe COVID-19 although not for type II diabetes. The identification of novel host genetic factors associated with COVID-19 was made possible by the community of human genetics researchers coming together to prioritize the sharing of data, results, resources and analytical frameworks. This working model of international collaboration underscores what is possible for future genetic discoveries in emerging pandemics, or indeed for any complex human disease.

The three monokines interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) modulate acute phase plasma protein synthesis in adult human hepatocytes. Only IL-6 stimulates the synthesis of the full spectrum of acute phase proteins as seen in inflammatory states in humans, i.e. synthesis and secretion of C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A, fibrinogen, alpha 1-antitrypsin, alpha 1-antichymotrypsin and haptoglobin are increased while albumin, transferrin and fibronectin are decreased. IL-1 beta as well as TNF alpha, although having a moderate effect on the positive acute phase proteins and inhibiting the synthesis of fibrinogen, albumin and transferrin, fail to induce serum amyloid A and C-reactive protein. These data suggest that IL-6 plays the key role in the regulation of acute phase protein synthesis in human hepatocytes.

Human hepatocytes in primary culture were used as a model system to investigate the mechanism(s) involved in the induction of the acute-phase response in human liver. Hepatocytes were incubated with increasing amounts of recombinant human interleukin-1 beta, recombinant interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha. Synthesis of C-reactive protein was studied at the mRNA and protein levels. Only recombinant interleukin-6 was capable of inducing C-reactive protein-mRNA and C-reactive protein-protein synthesis. Also, fibrinogen and alpha-1-antitrypsin synthesis measured by immunoprecipitation with specific antisera increased in a dose-dependent, time-dependent manner, whereas albumin synthesis decreased to about 50% of controls. Maximal effects were observed at 100 to 300 units of recombinant interleukin-6/ml culture medium after 20 hr of incubation. Although the synthetic glucocorticoid dexamethasone slightly modulated the effect of recombinant interleukin-6, it was not an absolute requirement for the induction of acute-phase protein synthesis in human hepatocytes. In pulse-chase experiments it was shown that the time course of the disappearance of the acute-phase proteins from the cells and their appearance in the medium is not influenced by recombinant interleukin-6. This finding suggests that recombinant interleukin-6 exerts its regulatory effect on acute-phase protein synthesis at the pretranslational level.

This review brings you up-to-date with the hepatocyte research on: 1) in vitro-in vivo correlations of metabolism and clearance; 2) CYP enzyme induction, regulation, and cross-talk using human hepatocytes and hepatocyte-like cell lines; 3) the function and regulation of hepatic transporters and models used to elucidate their role in drug clearance; 4) mechanisms and examples of idiosyncratic and intrinsic hepatotoxicity; and 5) alternative cell systems to primary human hepatocytes. We also report pharmaceutical perspectives of these topics and compare methods and interpretations for the drug development process.

OBJECTIVE: It has been shown in a two-center study that high positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) and low tidal volume (LTV) improved outcome in ARDS. However, that study involved patients with underlying diseases unique to the study area, was conducted at only two centers, and enrolled a small number of patients. We similarly hypothesized that a ventilatory strategy based on PEEP above the lower inflection point of the pressure volume curve of the respiratory system (Pflex) set on day 1 with a low tidal volume would result in improved outcome in patients with severe and persistent acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). DESIGN: Randomized, controlled clinical trial. SETTING: Network of eight Spanish multidisciplinary intensive care units (ICUs) under the acronym of ARIES (Acute Respiratory Insufficiency: España Study). PATIENTS: All consecutive patients admitted into participating Spanish ICUs from March 1999 to March 2001 with a diagnosis of ARDS were considered for the study. If 24 hrs after meeting ARDS criteria, the Pao2/Fio2 remained < or =200 mm Hg on standard ventilator settings, patients were randomized into two groups: control and Pflex/LTV. INTERVENTIONS: In the control group, tidal volume was 9-11 mL/kg of predicted body weight (PBW) and PEEP > or =5 cm H2O. In the Pflex/LTV group, tidal volume was 5-8 mL/kg PBW and PEEP was set on day 1 at Pflex + 2 cm H2O. In both groups, Fio2 was set to maintain arterial oxygen saturation >90% and Pao2 70-100 mm Hg, and respiratory rate was adjusted to maintain Paco2 between 35 and 50 mm Hg. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The study was stopped early based on an efficacy stopping rule as described in the methods. Of 103 patients who were enrolled (50 control and 53 Pflex), eight patients (five in control, three in Pflex) were excluded from the final evaluation because the random group assignment was not performed in one center according to protocol. Main outcome measures were ICU and hospital mortality, ventilator-free days, and nonpulmonary organ dysfunction. ICU mortality (24 of 45 [53.3%] vs. 16 of 50 [32%], p = .040), hospital mortality (25 of 45 [55.5%] vs. 17 of 50 [34%], p = .041), and ventilator-free days at day 28 (6.02 +/- 7.95 in control and 10.90 +/- 9.45 in Pflex/LTV, p = .008) all favored Pflex/LTV. The mean difference in the number of additional organ failures postrandomization was higher in the control group (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: A mechanical ventilation strategy with a PEEP level set on day 1 above Pflex and a low tidal volume compared with a strategy with a higher tidal volume and relatively low PEEP has a beneficial impact on outcome in patients with severe and persistent ARDS.

OBJECTIVES: Changing patterns in medical practice may contribute to temporal changes in the incidence of upper and lower gastrointestinal (GI) complications. There are limited data on the incidence of lower GI complications in clinical practice and most studies that have been done have serious methodological limitations to inferring the actual burden of this problem. The aims of this study were to analyze time trends of hospitalizations resulting from GI complications originating both from the upper and lower GI tract in the general population, and to determine the risk factors, severity, and clinical impact of these GI events. METHODS: This was a population-based study of patients hospitalized because of GI complications in 10 general hospitals between 1996 and 2005 in Spain. We report the age- and gender-specific rates, estimate the regression coefficients of the upper and lower GI event trends, and evaluate the severity and associated risk factors. GI hospitalization charts were validated by an independent review of large random samples of unspecific and specific codes distributed among all hospitals and study years. RESULTS: Upper GI complications fell from 87/100,000 persons in 1996 to 47/100,000 persons in 2005, whereas lower GI complications increased from 20/100,000 to 33/100,000. Overall, mortality rates decreased, but the case fatality remained constant over time. Lower GI events had a higher mortality rate (8.8 vs. 5.5%), a longer hospitalization (11.6+/-13.9 vs. 7.9+/-8.8 days), and higher resource utilization than did upper GI events. The use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) without concomitant proton pump inhibitor was more frequently recorded among upper GI complications than among lower GI complications. When comparing upper GI events with lower GI events, we found that male gender (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.94; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.70-2.21), and recorded NSAID use (OR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.60-2.30) were associated to a greater extent with upper GI events, whereas older age (OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77-0.89), number of comorbidities (OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.86-0.96), and having a diagnosis in recent years (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.90-0.94) were all associated to a greater extent with lower GI events than with upper GI events after adjusting for age, sex, hospitalization, and discharge year. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past decade, there has been a progressive change in the overall picture of GI events leading to hospitalization, with a clear decreasing trend in upper GI events and a significant increase in lower GI events, causing the rates of these two GI complications to converge. Overall, mortality has also decreased, but the in-hospital case fatality of upper or lower GI complication events has remained constant. It will be a challenge to improve future care in this area unless we develop new strategies to reduce the number of events originating in the lower GI tract, as well as reducing their associated mortality.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) represents approximately 10% of all cancers and is the second most common cause of cancer deaths. Initial clinical presentation as metastatic CRC (mCRC) occurs in approximately 20% of patients. Moreover, up to 50% of patients with localized disease eventually develop metastases. Appropriate clinical management of these patients is still a challenging medical issue. Major efforts have been made to unveil the molecular landscape of mCRC. This has resulted in the identification of several druggable tumor molecular targets with the aim of developing personalized treatments for each patient. This review summarizes the improvements in the clinical management of patients with mCRC in the emerging era of precision medicine. In fact, molecular stratification, on which the current treatment algorithm for mCRC is based, although it does not completely represent the complexity of this disease, has been the first significant step toward clinically informative genetic profiling for implementing more effective therapeutic approaches. This has resulted in a clinically relevant increase in mCRC disease control and patient survival. The next steps in the clinical management of mCRC will be to integrate the comprehensive knowledge of tumor gene alterations, of tumor and microenvironment gene and protein expression profiling, of host immune competence as well as the application of the resulting dynamic changes to a precision medicine-based continuum of care for each patient. This approach could result in the identification of individual prognostic and predictive parameters, which could help the clinician in choosing the most appropriate therapeutic program(s) throughout the entire disease journey for each patient with mCRC. CA Cancer J Clin. 2022;72:000-000.

a number of pathways, including interference with capacitation and possible damage to sperm membrane and DNA, which may impair the sperm's potential to fertilize an egg and develop into a healthy embryo. Adequate evaluation of male reproductive potential should therefore include an assessment of sperm OS. We propose the term Male Oxidative Stress Infertility, or MOSI, as a novel descriptor for infertile men with abnormal semen characteristics and OS, including many patients who were previously classified as having idiopathic male infertility. Oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) can be a useful clinical biomarker for the classification of MOSI, as it takes into account the levels of both oxidants and reductants (antioxidants). Current treatment protocols for OS, including the use of antioxidants, are not evidence-based and have the potential for complications and increased healthcare-related expenditures. Utilizing an easy, reproducible, and cost-effective test to measure ORP may provide a more targeted, reliable approach for administering antioxidant therapy while minimizing the risk of antioxidant overdose. With the increasing awareness and understanding of MOSI as a distinct male infertility diagnosis, future research endeavors can facilitate the development of evidence-based treatments that target its underlying cause.

Recombinant human IL-6 (rhIL-6) is a potent inducer of the synthesis of acute phase proteins in adult human hepatocytes. A wide spectrum of acute phase proteins is regulated by this mediator. After labeling of rhIL-6 stimulated human hepatocytes with [35S]methionine acute phase protein synthesis was measured by immunoprecipitation. Serum amyloid A, C-reactive protein, haptoglobin, alpha 1-antichymotrypsin and fibrinogen were strongly induced (26-, 23-, 8.6-, 4.6- and 3.8-fold increases, respectively). Moderate increases were found for alpha 1-antitrypsin (2.7-fold) and alpha 1-acid glycoprotein (2.7-fold). RhIL-6 had no effect on alpha 2-macroglobulin, whereas fibronectin, albumin and transferrin decreased to 64, 56 and 55% of controls. In the cases of serum amyloid A, haptoglobin, alpha 1-antichymotrypsin, alpha 1-antitrypsin and alpha 1-acid glycoprotein, dexamethasone enhanced the action of rhIL-6. We conclude that rhIL-6 controls the acute phase response in human liver cells.

1. Cultured hepatic cells have reduced cytochrome P450 (CYP) activities in comparison with human liver, but the mechanism(s) that underlies this circumstance is not clear. We investigated the causes of this low CYP activity by analysing the activity, protein, mRNA and heterologous nuclear RNA contents of the most important CYPs involved in drug metabolism (1A1, 1A2, 2A6, 2B6, 2C9, 2C19, 2D6, 2E1, 3A4, 3A5) in cultured human hepatocytes, and in HepG2 and Mz-Hep-1 hepatoma cell lines. 2. After 24 h of culture, hepatocytes retained most of their CYP activities and protein contents, but the mRNA decreased 20-fold. However, the mRNA content of most CYPs in 24-h hepatocytes was still 400-fold higher than in hepatoma cells. When we examined the transcriptional activity of the CYP genes, this decreased during culture time in hepatocytes and it was poor in hepatoma cell lines. 3. We investigated the abundance of key hepatic transcription factors that govern CYP transcription (C/EBP-beta: LAP and LIP, HNF-3alpha, HNF-4alpha, RXR-alpha) and observed that the expression of some factors was altered in the hepatoma cells. 4. In conclusion, the loss of biotransformation activity in cultured hepatic cells is caused by a decrease in CYP transcription, which correlates with an alteration in the expression of key transcription factors.

Therapy planning in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs) is complicated by its high prognostic heterogeneity. Forty-one patient and disease characteristics at onset of 370 patients with MDS were analyzed to identify significant prognostic factors for survival and transformation to acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML), and to develop and validate a regression model for predicting survival. Multivariate regression analysis showed that the total bone marrow percentage of blast cells, age, platelet count, WBC count, and hemoglobin level were the characteristics more significantly associated with survival in the overall series. The bone marrow percentage of type I blast cells was the most important factor predicting transformation into AML. Proportional hazards regression analysis in a randomly selected training sample of 240 patients demonstrated that the combination of total bone marrow percentage of blast cells, platelet count, and age had the strongest predictive relation to survival length. The resulting regression models, continuous and categorized, were validated in the remaining test sample of 130 patients by demonstrating its capability of segregating patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, with distinctively different survival curves (P less than .0001). A scoring system derived from the categorized model also had a great prognostic value (P less than .0001). These regression models and the simpler scoring system may be accurately used for decision-making regarding therapy in MDS patients.

Insufficient vessel growth associated with ischemia remains an unresolved issue in vascular medicine. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have been shown to promote angiogenesis via a mechanism that is potentiated by hypoxia. Overexpression of hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1α in MSCs improves their therapeutic potential by inducing angiogenesis in transplanted tissues. Here, we studied the contribution of exosomes released by HIF-1α-overexpressing donor MSCs (HIF-MSC) to angiogenesis by endothelial cells. Exosome secretion was enhanced in HIF-MSC. Omics analysis of miRNAs and proteins incorporated into exosomes pointed to the Notch pathway as a candidate mediator of exosome communication. Interestingly, we found that Jagged1 was the sole Notch ligand packaged into MSC exosomes and was more abundant in HIF-MSC than in MSC controls. The addition of Jagged1-containing exosomes from MSC and HIF-MSC cultures to endothelial cells triggered transcriptional changes in Notch target genes and induced angiogenesis in an in vitro model of capillary-like tube formation, and both processes were stimulated by HIF-1α. Finally, subcutaneous injection of Jagged 1-containing exosomes from MSC and HIF-MSC cultures in the Matrigel plug assay induced angiogenesis in vivo, which was more robust when they were derived from HIF-MSC cultures. All Jagged1-mediated effects could be blocked by prior incubation of exosomes with an anti-Jagged 1 antibody. All together, the results indicate that exosomes derived from MSCs stably overexpressing HIF-1α have an increased angiogenic capacity in part via an increase in the packaging of Jagged1, which could have potential applications for the treatment of ischemia-related disease. Stem Cells 2017;35:1747-1759.

OBJECTIVE: To determine pre-/intraoperative risk factors for anastomotic leak after colon resection for cancer and to create a practical instrument for predicting anastomotic leak risk. BACKGROUND: Anastomotic leak is still the most dreaded complication in colorectal surgery. Many risk factors have been identified to date, but multicentric prospective studies on anastomotic leak after colon resection are lacking. METHODS: Fifty-two hospitals participated in this prospective, observational study. Data of 3193 patients, operated for colon cancer with primary anastomosis without stoma, were included in a prospective online database (September 2011-September 2012). Forty-two pre-/intraoperative variables, related to patient, tumor, surgical procedure, and hospital, were analyzed as potential independent risk factors for anastomotic leak (60-day follow-up). A nomogram was created to easily predict the risk of anastomotic leak for a given patient. RESULTS: The anastomotic leak rate was 8.7%, and widely varied between hospitals (variance of 0.24 on the logit scale). Anastomotic leak significantly increased mortality (15.2% vs 1.9% in patients without anastomotic leak, P < 0.0001) and length of hospitalization (median 23 vs 7 days in uncomplicated patients, P < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, the following variables were independent risk factors for anastomotic leak: obesity [P = 0.003, odds ratio (OR) = 2.7], preoperative serum total proteins (P = 0.03, OR = 0.7 per g/dL), male sex (P = 0.03, OR = 1.6), ongoing anticoagulant treatment (P = 0.05, OR = 1.8), intraoperative complication (P = 0.03, OR = 2.2), and number of hospital beds (P = 0.04, OR = 0.95 per 100 beds). CONCLUSIONS: Anastomotic leak after colon resection for cancer is a frequent, relevant complication. Patients, surgical technique, and hospital are all important determining factors of anastomotic leak risk.

Genetic discoveries of Alzheimer's disease are the drivers of our understanding, and together with polygenetic risk stratification can contribute towards planning of feasible and efficient preventive and curative clinical trials. We first perform a large genetic association study by merging all available case-control datasets and by-proxy study results (discovery n = 409,435 and validation size n = 58,190). Here, we add six variants associated with Alzheimer's disease risk (near APP, CHRNE, PRKD3/NDUFAF7, PLCG2 and two exonic variants in the SHARPIN gene). Assessment of the polygenic risk score and stratifying by APOE reveal a 4 to 5.5 years difference in median age at onset of Alzheimer's disease patients in APOE ɛ4 carriers. Because of this study, the underlying mechanisms of APP can be studied to refine the amyloid cascade and the polygenic risk score provides a tool to select individuals at high risk of Alzheimer's disease.

Primary cultured hepatocytes are a valuable in vitro model for drug metabolism studies. However, their widespread use is greatly hindered by the scarcity of suitable human liver samples. Moreover, the well-known in vitro phenotypic instability of hepatocytes, the irregular availability of fresh human liver for cell harvesting purposes, and the high batch-to-batch functional variability of hepatocyte preparations obtained from different human liver donors, seriously complicate their use in routine testing. To overcome these limitations, different cell line models have been proposed for drug metabolism screening. Human liver-derived cell lines would be ideal models for this purpose given their availability, unlimited life-span, stable phenotype, and the fact that they are easy to handle. However, the human hepatoma cells currently used (i.e. HepG2, Mz-Hep-1) show negligible levels of drug-metabolizing and do not constitute a real alternative to primary hepatocytes. Different strategies have been proposed to generate metabolically competent immortalized hepatocytes (transformation of human hepatocytes with plasmids encoding immortalizing genes, hepatocyte-like cells derived from stem cells, cell lines generated from transgenic animals, hepatocyte/hepatoma hydrid cells). Moreover, recombinant models heterologously expressing P450 enzymes in different host cells have been developed and successfully used in drug metabolism testing. In addition, new strategies have recently been explored to upregulate the expression of drug-metabolizing enzymes in cell lines of a human origin (i.e. transfection with expression vectors encoding key hepatic transcription factors). Among metabolic-based drug-drug interactions, P450 inhibition seems to be the most important. A major application of recombinant models expressing a single P450 is the screening of potential enzyme inhibitors. Therefore, pharmaceutical companies increasingly make use of cell lines to speed up the selection of new drugs with favourable pharmacokinetic and metabolic properties.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort. METHODS: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years' follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS. RESULTS: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71-2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52-2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04-3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres. CONCLUSIONS: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation.